Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Salary Cap Players to Target

February 22, 2008 @ 06:46:20

It seems like every year the big-market teams buy all the top free agents, while the small-market teams have to keep pumping out top prospect after top prospect. What would happen if every team were given an equal playing field to pick the players they wanted? Well, if you don't feel like joining a socialist commune, try joining a salary cap league. Rather than having a draft or auction to determine who gets the top players, every player is open to each participant in a salary cap league, and you are required to construct a team within the confines of a salary cap, usually around $30 million or $60 million.

The goal is to pick the perfect balance of established stars while peppering your lineup with enough young talent and value-based players that are ready to break out. The real strategy comes in finding value-based players, as they are what your lineup will revolve around. When you are successful, winning is that much more exciting. Just ask anyone who owned Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Ryan Braun (who is moving to left field this year) or Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki last season. Now, you might be wondering what types of players you should be looking for this year. Let's consider the types of players you want on your team and give some examples of players that fit the mold.

Types of Players

The player who will likely be most crucial to your fantasy team's success is the higher-end, value-based player. This is the player that is coming off a poor year and is undervalued, but you feel is ready to bounce back. His poor year could have been because of a weak surrounding cast or because of injury or any number of reasons. Regardless, he is ready to break out this year and carry your team to the top of the fantasy league. An example of this player last year could have been Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez. He was generally overshadowed by New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes; however, he finished the season with solid numbers across the board and generally outperformed Reyes. Entering this season, though, his cap number has likely caught up to his value and he might not be player you want to target, because he will consume too much of your overall salary budget. There are other types of players you will want to avoid in this category as well. Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard is one of these players. He might hit a lot of home runs and knock in a lot of runs, but his cap number is likely going to be too high to really consider him. In salary cap leagues the key to winning is to get solid players at every position without breaking the bank on just a handful of players. This requires spreading the wealth around. Instead of taking Howard at first base, you might want to consider someone such as Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee, but we will touch on this later.

The second type of player you want to consider is the inexpensive, value-based player. These guys are generally coming off a poor season or have yet to break out in the league and will have a lower salary. Keep an eye out for players who are coming back from injury or players who have moved teams and are now in a more offensive-friendly environment. These are the players you will have to look at more in-depth, as they will likely spell the difference between success and failure. Anyone can pick up a New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez-type player and stick him in their lineup, but it is finding the Ryan Braun-type bargains (i.e., the 2007 version) and having them produce well above and beyond their cap number that will bring you a championship.

Players to Target

Note: This list is not exhaustive but merely an example of the types of players that should be considered.

Higher-Priced Bargains

The players in this section will likely be the ones that form the backbone of your team. They are often some of the top players at their respective positions in the league, but for some reason have lower value than you might think. This could be because of a bad year the previous season or because of injuries the previous season. Regardless, finding good value for production in these higher-price players will allow you to take more chances in other areas and is a key to success in salary cap leagues.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs - Lee's numbers bounced back nicely after a sub par, injury-plagued 2006 campaign. His .317 average was especially high for the position. About the only numbers that didn't come up were his steals, which reached just six. With him another year healthier, Lee could be ready to contribute in all five major categories this year, especially if he continues the pace he set in the second half of the 2007 season, when he had 16 home runs, 40 RBIs and 45 runs in only 68 games.

Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins - The offense in Minnesota should have potential as they still have catcher Joe Mauer and his career .394 on-base percentage batting second and have added up-and-coming outfielder Delmon Young to hit in the third slot just ahead of Morneau. That could mean a return to form for the 2006 American League MVP, who hit just .271 with 31 home runs, 111 RBIs and 84 runs last year after exploding in 2006 to a .321 average, 34 home runs, 130 RBIs and 97 runs scored. The off-year will likely lower his value and he should experience a bounce-back season, especially if the offense ahead of him performs well.

Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox - Last year was an off-year all around for most White Sox hitters, with Konerko being no exception. He did hit 31 home runs and knock in 90 runs; however, he hit just .259, which is 22 points below his career average. The White Sox lineup as a whole should bounce back this year in what was a surprising dropoff from 2006. This gives Konerko great value as a higher-priced bargain.

Edgar Renteria, SS, Detroit Tigers - After two seasons in Atlanta, Renteria will be making the jump back to the American League for the second time in his career. Last year he posted a career-best .332 average and likely would have set career highs in runs if an ankle injury hadn't prevented him from playing a full season. Renteria should have a better lineup surrounding him in Detroit than he did in Atlanta, which could spell an even bigger season from him, especially in the RBI department. While he typically hit second or third in Atlanta, he's projected to hit seventh in the powerful Detroit lineup.

Hideki Matsui, OF, New York Yankees - Matsui was on fire last season heading into the final month, after hitting .345 and .333 in July and August respectively, before he hit the wall and managed just a .185 average in September. However, the Matsui of July and August is the one that we are expecting to show up this year. Matsui's value could be down entering this year, as his .285 batting average last year is 10 points below his career average, and there is talk of him sharing at-bats in left field with outfielder Johnny Damon and also being part of the designated hitter rotation. Although he missed 19 games last year due to hamstring and knee injuries, he had offseason knee surgery and should be ready for Opening Day after being cleared to take batting practice in mid-February. Keep this proven four-category producer in mind.

Jim Thome, DH, Chicago White Sox - Like White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko, Thome's numbers dropped across the board last year, as he was limited to 130 games because of a strained rib cage and back spasms. In fact, 2007 was the first full season Thome played since 2000 where he didn't reach at least 40 home runs and 100 RBIs. However, the team should be a lot better this season after the team's offense sputtered in 2007. That should put more RBIs and runs on the board for Thome and should make him a good bargain. Even though he is 37 years old, he still has sufficient power to hit 40 home runs as long as he plays on a regular basis. Thome apparently has designs on doing exactly that, as he showed up early at spring training camp to begin preparing for the season.

Brett Myers, SP, Philadelphia Phillies - After struggling to a 9.39 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in three starts over the first month of the 2007 season, Myers managed to turn things around when moved out of necessity into the closer's role for the Phillies, saving 21 of 24 opportunities while producing a 2.87 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 48 relief appearances. Despite enjoying the chance to close, he has been moved back to the starting rotation this year, where he has had some recent success. In 2005, he went 13-8 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a career-high 208 strikeouts; in 2006 he went 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 189 strikeouts. His value should be lowered entering this season as a starter instead of the closer because he still pitches in a hitter-friendly park, but don't let that keep you away.

Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants - Cain failed to show much consistency last year as his monthly ERA varied from 1.54 to 6.58 over the first four months of the season. However, he finished the season with an overall 3.65 ERA, which looked great next to his 163 strikeouts and 1.26 WHIP. What also makes Cain a great target is that at just 23 years old, he should only get better as he gains more experience. The Giants also were near the bottom of the league last year offensively, but they hope to surprise some teams this year with new faces like outfielder Aaron Rowand. This could increase Cain's value if the offense pans out in the post-Barry Bonds era.

Trevor Hoffman, CL, San Diego Padres - Another year, another 40 saves as Hoffman keeps chugging along. After 2007, he now sits at 524 saves for his career and is showing no signs of slowing down. Because he does not play in a huge market, and has never been one to draw attention to himself, Hoffman is often overlooked. However, he has been one of the most consistent closers of the past decade. If you do take the 40-year-old Hoffman, keep in mind he does not strike out a lot of batters (he only had 44 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings pitched) so you will have to look elsewhere for that category.

Inexpensive Bargains

This type of player will not be among the most established, but they could be poised for a breakout season or their value could be lowered because of an injury last year. They are generally riskier than the higher-priced bargains, as you are often taking a flier on a top prospect or hoping a former All-Star rebounds; however, you will have to nab some players of this type if you want to get good value across the board on your fantasy team.

Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals - The Royals' 2004 first-round draft pick made an immediate impact as he hit .292 with eight home runs, 52 RBIs and 38 runs in 329 at-bats. He also added 23 doubles and two triples to finish with a quality .794 OPS, which led all players on the team who saw at least 75 at-bats. You should be wary of Butler hitting the wall in his second season, but you also have to be intrigued by the promising youngster who hit .341 with three home runs and 24 RBIs last July during his first taste of extended action.

Ryan Garko, 1B, Cleveland Indians - Garko had a quiet 21 home runs and 61 RBIs last year and will likely take up the fifth spot in the Indians' lineup this year, hitting behind designated hitter Travis Hafner and catcher Victor Martinez. His power came in spurts last year, as he didn't have any home runs in August but finished strong in September with seven homers. He should give you solid contributions in four categories for good value.

Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays - Hill, the team's first-round pick in the 2003 draft, saw dramatic improvement in his third season to finish with a .291 average, 17 home runs, 47 doubles and 78 RBIs. The power numbers were especially surprising, as he had managed just nine home runs in his two previous seasons combined. Hill should play in an improved offense but might find himself hitting as low as the eighth spot.

Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew appeared to finally get the hang of things at the end of last year as he hit .266 in September (his best monthly average) and produced 15 RBIs. His season-ending .238 average was a far cry from the .316 he posted in 209 at-bats as a rookie in 2006, but he's still just 24 years old. Drew should only improve and has great value on a roster littered with young talent.

Julio Lugo, SS, Boston Red Sox - Those who invest in Lugo will hope 2007 was only an aberration, when he hit an abysmal .237 and lacked power with only eight home runs. However, if you can get him at a decent price he should continue to score and drive in runs, as well as provide a great source of cheap steals (33 in 2007).

Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas Rangers - Blalock missed a large portion of the 2007 season because of thoracic outlet syndrome, a condition that affected his shoulder and neck nerves, and he underwent surgery in May to remove a rib. Blalock came back and hit five home runs and knocked in 17 runs in 64 September at-bats. He also finished the season hitting .293, which was his highest average since 2003. Because of his injury last year, his value should be lower entering 2008.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego Padres - Kouzmanoff had a rough start to last season; however, he turned it on over the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, he had a .317 average, 11 home runs and 37 RBIs. He also scored 11 more runs. That is a good sign that he is adapting to life on the West Coast and he should give good value in 2008.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins - Hermida began the 2007 season on the disabled list with a knee injury and did not really get going until after the All-Star break. Once he got going, he finally lived up to his potential as he hit .340 with 10 home runs, 36 RBIs and 37 runs in 72 post All-Star break games.

Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles - Jones will likely have a low value this year as he has minimal experience at the major league level. But looking at his numbers last year for Triple-A Tacoma, where he hit .314 with 25 home runs, 84 RBIs, 75 runs and eight steals in 420 at-bats, it is easy to see why he was the centerpiece for the Orioles in the Erik Bedard trade. Jones should come cheaply and could be a breakout star this year.

Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota Twins - Kubel came on strong last year, hitting .364 and .325 in the last two months of the season, respectively. With a solid lineup in front of him, he should be available on the cheap and brings good value.

Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals - Greinke bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen last season in his return from personal problems. If picked up, the team's first-round pick in 2002 should provide solid stats in WHIP, strikeouts and ERA. Over the last three months of the season he had sub-3.00 ERAs, a WHIP around 1.10 and averaged almost one strikeout per inning. Wins could be the only problem for him as he plays for a weak Royals team.

Ervin Santana, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Santana's stock was high entering the 2007 season after he won a team-high 16 games, but he proceeded to stink up the joint with a 7-14 record, 5.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. However, manager Mike Scioscia attributed Santana's poor season to bad mechanics, and feels the youngster has turned things around and still has the ability to be a 20-game winner. Santana is coming off a solid performance in winter ball, so that is a promising sign. The injury to starter Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) opens up a guaranteed rotation spot for Santana at least for the start the season.

Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals - Wainwright was solid over the second half of the season last year as he posted a 2.71 ERA with a 7-5 record and 77 strikeouts over 99 2/3 innings pitched. If that carries over into 2008, Wainwright should give good value.

Matt Capps, CL, Pittsburgh Pirates - Like most other players on this list, Capps' second half of the season gives us a good indication he will have success in 2008. After the All-Star break last year, Capps improved his ERA from 2.37 to 2.12 and picked up nine saves. He also increased his strikeout rate to more than one per inning.

Joe Borowski, CL, Cleveland Indians - Borowski's numbers, saves aside, could scare off some owners. However, looking more closely, Borowski had only two bad months last year when his ERA was above 4.00. That inflated his overall ERA to the ghastly 5.07 that you will see at the top of his profile page. However, he posted sub-4.00 ERAs in 2005 and '06, leading us to believe last year could have been an aberration. Also in his favor are 58 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings pitched and a league-leading 45 saves. The team's addition of Japanese reliever Masahide Kobayashi provides another good setup option along with reliever Rafael Betancourt, meaning Borowski should continue to see plenty of save opportunities.

Grabbing the Right Free Agents

Just like in any other fantasy league, picking up players during the season is crucial to success, as you may need to trim under-performing players from your roster if they don't pan out. There are numerous types of players that you will want to target and in this section we will take a look at those players.

The first type of free-agent player you will want to look at is the player who steps into the starting role due to an injury. One situation is already developing in Boston that would fall under this category. Red Sox starting pitcher Curt Schilling (shoulder) could miss much or all of this season as he attempts to rehab his shoulder. This would likely open up the door for starting pitcher Clay Buchholz to take hold of a roster spot. Buchholz, you will remember, delighted owners last season by posting a 3-1 record and 1.59 ERA, as well as 22 strikeouts, in just four outings. He also threw a no-hitter. Keep an eye on similar situations so you can snap up players while they still have low value against the cap.

Another type of player to look at would be a utility player who starts out with sporadic playing time but works his way into a starting job. An example of this type of player from last season is Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim infielder Maicer Izturis. He was in the lineup for 102 games last year, 67 after the All-Star break. He showed improvement in those games, hitting .304 with five home runs, 35 RBIs and 33 runs after the All-Star break. This year, he's in the mix for the starting shortstop job but could also be used in a super-utility role.

Other candidates to keep an eye on are players on hot streaks (pick them up when hot, dump them when they are cold) or pitchers who have good matchups. For example, New York Mets starting pitcher John Maine might not be a regular starter for your fantasy team, but last year he was 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings against the Florida Marlins. Knowing that, it might be a good idea to sign him up when he faces the Marlins this year because of his past success against them. Following trends like this will help you be successful in your league.

Situations to Keep An Eye On

Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins - With the recent signing of starting pitcher Livan Hernandez, Slowey might not have a spot in the rotation locked down just yet. He was called up twice last year. In his first stint, he went 3-0 but had a 5.84 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP over seven starts. He was better in September when he went 1-1 over four starts with a 3.34 ERA. He also threw 28 strikeouts over 29 2/3 innings pitched. Slowey could be a great value pick-up this year but keep an eye on how he does in spring training and early in the season to see if he will stick with the team.

George Sherrill, RP, Baltimore Orioles - Sherrill may only have four career saves entering 2008 but he is considered the frontrunner for the closer's job in Baltimore, at least until last year's closer Chris Ray (elbow) returns from injury. Sherrill pitched well for Seattle last year, posting a 2.36 ERA over 45 2/3 innings pitched, including 56 strikeouts and a low 0.99 WHIP. However, that was setting up for Mariners closer J.J. Putz, and there is some question as to whether Sherrill will be able to handle full-time closing duties. Keep an eye on him in spring training to see if he remains the closer on Opening Day.

Tony Pena, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks - Brandon Lyon may be the closer on Opening Day; however, he might only be keeping the seat warm for Pena. Pena has the better stuff of the two, but the team is going with the more experienced closer for now. If Lyon struggles early in the season, this is a situation to look at as it could be a great source of saves (last year's closer Jose Valverde finished with 47) and strikeouts.

Summary

The players listed above should give you an idea of ones to target. Just remember, the name of the game is finding players at good value. If you can do that then you should have success in this type of league.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.