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Fantasy Baseball: Diamond Market - Falling

April 4, 2008 @ 08:17:23

By Herija C. Green and Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Cory J. Bonini and Herija C. Green

Fantasy baseball waivers and discarded fantasy baseball players can make or break a season. You may have adjusted your fantasy baseball cheat sheets over and over during spring training. If your team remains the same after opening day, though, you will probably have trouble competing in your rotisserie baseball league. When is it time to give up on your fantasy baseball sleepers? Which players are worth retaining? KFFL.com's Diamond Market series gives you the fantasy baseball tips and advice you need to sort through the masses quickly.

Key

Discard - Drop player (in most circumstances)

Stash - Hold player if roster space is available; consider dropping if trend continues

Hold - Do not drop player (in most circumstances)

Catchers

Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants

Molina has three hits in 13 at-bats. Like many of the quickly discarded players in fantasy leagues this year, future owners of him will be able to point to any stretch during the season that is as bad or worse. It just so happens that it came in the first week. Molina is not a stud or an All-Star, but he's a solid backup or No. 2 catcher in deep leagues. Two straight seasons around .280, with 19 homers in each, shouldn't be easily forgotten.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles

Hernandez gets off to a 0-for-7 start, and everyone begins to jump ship. Injuries limited him last year, but he wasn't any worse than your average fantasy backup at the position. It's an understandable move to make in shallow mixed leagues when there are plenty of options there, especially if you only rely on one backstop. In deeper formats, though, it's a bit quick to rush to judgment. He came to camp healthy and belted 23 homers in 2006. Don't hit the panic button on a possible rebound candidate, even a 31-year-old catcher on a bad team.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

First Basemen

Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates

Fantasy owners continue to have high hopes for LaRoche, and with good reason (.285-32-90 in 2006). One thing they seem to forget about him: He's a slow starter. In that bust-out season, the lefty slugger hit only .251 with 13 home runs in the first half. Last year, before the All-Star break, he batted .239 with 13 homers. That's not to say he can't reverse the trend. Shallow mixed leaguers don't have time to wait on him, though.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Stash

NL-only: Hold

Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners

A once powerful slugger begins the year 1-for-11 with a single and four strikeouts. Sexson's decline in power is well-documented, and his average was never pretty to begin with. A slow start like this one is bound to convince fantasy owners that last year's .205 season with 21 dingers wasn't an outlier. In a shallow mixed league, that won't do, but it's too early to say a return to respectability is not in the cards in other formats especially with Sexson in a contract year.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Stash

AL-only: Hold

Second Basemen

Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

Johnson (knee) has been experiencing right knee pain, something that troubled him in spring training and for as long as a year before that. It has reached the point where a stay on the disabled list is possible, at least to make sure he gets right. That isn't encouraging news, but it's not reason to cut bait on the 26-year-old second sacker with 20-homer power. Owners that wait for him to hit the disabled list, if it happens, will have the open roster spot soon enough. Signs aren't encouraging, but don't give up.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Shortstops

J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers

How easily fantasy players forget the 26 home runs and 80 RBIs a shortstop put up in 592 at-bats when he gets off to a 1-for-13 start. Hardy has enjoyed better beginnings to his last two seasons (.281 with 10 homers combined in his past two Aprils). Perhaps he isn't suited to hitting in front of the pitcher, as he has done now that the Brew Crew is batting its pitchers eighth. Whatever the reason, it's a tad early to call 2007 a fluke and cast Hardy aside.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Ryan Theriot, Chicago Cubs

That didn't last long. Manager Lou Piniella apparently saw enough of Theriot in the leadoff spot (two games, 2-for-9, two strikeouts) or outfielder Alfonso Soriano in the No. 2 hole (0-for-9, three K's) to shake things up and swap the two of them after just two days. It's not a surprise to those familiar with Sweet Lou's temperament, and it shouldn't be to fantasy owners who drafted Theriot, either. Maybe that, plus a 3-for-14 start, is enough for fantasy owners to cut him. For the time being he'll bat second in that tough Cubbies lineup, though, and last year he stole 28 bases. For a player with a little upside that is eligible at second and short in many leagues, it seems a little hasty to pass judgment so soon.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Third Basemen

None

Outfielders

Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies

He's off to a 6-for-28 start, with only two stolen bases. That's what the intro might have said for Victorino last season. This year, it begins with 1-for-11 and no swipes. The Flyin' Hawaiian bats second, behind shortstop Jimmy Rollins and in front of second baseman Chase Utley, in perhaps the most dangerous lineup in the NL. He hit 12 homers and stole 37 bases in 456 at-bats in 2007. And fantasy owners want to toss him aside already? That doesn't seem wise for someone usually drafted in the first 10 rounds.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

Perhaps a few wires were crossed with the announcement that outfielder Andre Ethier would be a starter this season as some fantasy owners have inexplicably been sending Kemp to the waiver wire. Granted, Kemp is off to a rough 1-for-10 start, but he hit .342 and has top-25 potential at the position. If someone has made the mistake of releasing him make sure that you pounce immediately.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies

Taveras is 1-for-10 to begin the year, but it is way too early to close the book on the speedy outfielder and send him to the waiver wire. Taveras swiped 33 bags in just 97 games a season ago and could nab 50-plus this year if he stays healthy. If you have an overabundance of steals he could be let go in shallow leagues but only if you have a substantial need elsewhere.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers

Pierre's demotion to fourth outfielder has created a ripple effect that is seeing some fantasy owners pull the plug on the veteran. That isn't advised, even in shallow leagues where a valuable player can be grabbed from the pool; owners in deeper and NL-only setups also would be wise to keep him on roster in case one of the Dodgers' talented young corner outfielders flames out.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox

Red Sox manager Terry Francona is none too popular with some fantasy owners right now. Francona has split the playing time with outfielder Coco Crisp and Ellsbury, leading some to hastily usher the rookie off of their rosters. This is definitely premature considering the fairly high-round pick that likely was required to land Ellsbury on draft day. Keep him out of your active lineup if you want but don't let him off your roster or you might regret it.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Designated Hitters

Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers

Sheffield (finger) sustained a torn tendon in his finger during the team's April 3 game, adding an unknown element to a frustrating start (1-for-7) for the veteran slugger. Sheffield has said he will try to play through the injury but would have to wait for the swelling to go down to get a better feel for what will be dealing with. Sheffield is too good of a hitter in too good of a lineup to drop, even if a DL stint is necessary. Keep him on your roster.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Starting Pitchers

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

Bonderman clearly didn't have his best stuff in his 2008 debut against the Kansas City Royals, allowing 10 bases runners and four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings. While the 1.58 WHIP is ugly, it should be noted he left the game having only allowed three runs with one out in the seventh and a man on first, which the Tigers bullpen allowed to score. Once that lineup gets rolling, Bonderman could have mid-teens upside in terms of wins. He's still just 25 years of age and should have better days ahead this year.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates fell 10-2 to the Atlanta Braves in Gorzelanny's first start of the season, but the southpaw allowed just three of those runs over six innings of work. He's not a dominant pitcher but did enough last year to win 14 games and carry a sub-4.00 ERA. He would still make a solid fifth or sixth starter in mixed leagues.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays

The highly regarded Garza was roughed up in his Rays debut, allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings. He has great talent, though, and was the centerpiece of the trade that sent former No. 1 overall pick Delmon Young to the Minnesota Twins. He had logged just a little more than 130 career innings in the majors coming into the year, so some growing pains were to be expected. Definitely try to ride it out and see how the youngster looks in his next few starts before making a move.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies

Jimenez was all over the place in his first start of the season, issuing five free passes and allowing seven hits in five innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. He's a hard thrower and has some upside pitching behind the Rockies lineup. However, there is also some downside as control was an issue throughout the minors, and Coors Field isn't very forgiving of mistakes. He's not worth holding in shallow leagues but should be stashed for at least a little while in deeper mixed formats.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Stash

NL-only: Hold

Relief Pitchers

Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies

The 40-year-old was brutal in his first outing of the year, allowing four hits and five runs in 1/3 of an inning. He looked shaky the next time out, too, allowing a hit and two walks in a scoreless frame Thursday, April 3. As soon as closer Brad Lidge (knee) is activated feel free to jettison Gordon in shallow mixed leagues. In deep mixed formats, stash him if you can and are an owner of Lidge.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Stash

NL-only: Hold