Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Ask the Experts chat transcript

February 9, 2009 @ 00:00:00

Twice a week, KFFL fantasy baseball experts Nicholas Minnix (Mondays, 12 p.m. EST, 9 a.m. PST) and Tim Heaney (Wednesdays, 12 p.m. EST, 9 a.m. PST) chat live with fantasy baseball players to answer their most pressing questions.

Go to the Ask the Experts Landing Page to access these exciting chats and have your questions answered by Heaney, Minnix and the rest of the best in the industry!

ralph

Who has the better career upside? Zimmerman or Gordon?

I don't think there's much question that Gordon has the better long-term potential. Both are natural hitters, but Gordon has more power potential and speed.

Gordon has the ability to be a contributor in homers and steals, kind of like David Wright, with a little more power and a little less speed. He's a fairly patient hitter and is working hard to improve, but he needs to improve his contact - more so, he needs to drive the ball more.

Having said all this, Gordon has his work cut out for him to reach his ceiling, whereas Zimmerman is much further along. He was ready to hit in the majors when he came out of Virginia. He just doesn't have quite the power potential or speed. I believe Zimmerman isn't far from his ceiling already, which isn't too shabby either.

jim

Who is your sleeper pick at 1b?

I look for Paulie Konerko to have a bit of a bounce-back campaign, considering his BABIP was so absurdly low. He was still driving the ball and shows good patience.

Mixed or even NL-only leagues, I like Gaby Sanchez in Florida. I expect him to emerge in the corner-infield mess with the Fish. Dallas McPherson is simply not capable of hitting consistently at the big league level, so I expect Jorge Cantu to man third and Sanchez, who has mild power but can hit for average, works hard and can steal a few bases, to be a regular.

Joe

Where do you think Manny and Abrue will sign?

I still look for Manny to end up in the NL West. The Dodgers make the most sense; I wonder if he may eventually flex his muscle to say he wants to get it done there, he was happy in LA. It just makes sense.

Abreu is tough. He makes sense for several teams. Seattle probably makes the most sense; they covet his plate discipline, although they should note it's been on the decline. The Angels are apparently interested, too; in fact, it seems as if the entire AL West was hot for him at one point or another. I'd guess Seattle if talks go well, or the Angels if the Halos begin to show desperation.

Terry

Three years ago, there was discussion that playing in the WBC may have adversely impacted players' performance in the following season. Should fantasy players stay away from drafting WBC players, or is this based more on individual situations, playing time, etc.?

I did a little research on the topic. There's nothing you can call conclusive because there's only been one, but starting pitchers seemed to exhibit some adverse reactions in some form or fashion. Possible reasons: Too much physical exertion, highly competitive situations before their bodies were ready. Hitters and relievers, the workload is even more limited. The WBC can serve as a gauge to find out which players are healthy. Check this out for more info:

http://www.kffl.com/article.php/99357/515

larry

Who is the player least deserving of a high round pick?:

Easy answer: Matt Holliday. He's a good hitter but has never displayed the skills to consistently perform as remotely well as he has in Colorado. He's simply above average elsewhere.

brett

Who are some catchers that get drafted late that you like?

Kenji Johjima can easily bounce back this season. He should hit for average again, maybe double-digit homers, and get close to 400 at-bats, but he's overlooked because of Jeff Clement. They intend to use both quite often, with Clement at DH.

I think Carlos Ruiz could be serviceable as a mixed No. 2 catcher this year. That had been the hope last year, but he fizzled. He improved his discipline as the year went on, though, and he performed well in the playoffs.

Both Texas catchers (not Max Ramirez, who's third in line) are intriguing picks. Taylor Teagarden is the more popular choice, but he's still raw at the plate. I'd definitely be looking to take a shot with Jarrod Saltamacchia, though; he had a good winter, and it's approaching now-or-never time for him. What a lineup to break out in, eh?

evan

What rookies do you feel will make a big fantasy contribution this year?

Matt Wieters is everyone's darling. He's overvalued simply because of lack of playing time, but he may not need much time to adjust to the bigs.

I love Cameron Maybin's skill set. He's such a smart and composed young man. He just loves to swing the bat too much. If he shows patience this spring, I think he can hit near .300 and steal 20 bases. The power isn't there yet.

Kenshin Kawakami is intriguing, of the import "rookies." I expect a little better than Hiroki Kuroda was last year, based on the numbers I analyzed.

sandy

Can you talk a little about Jayson Werth, how likely is he to be an everyday OF er for the first time in his career?

Highly likely. They don't have anyone else. Charlie Manuel sticks with his guys. Werth has a good eye and is aggressive, two qualities Manuel loves. He's also aggressive on the basepaths. He'll be inconsistent, but he's a solid No. 4 type fantasy OF in mixed setups.

What's with all the co-closer situations this season, like Oakland... Do they ever work, or is it just another way of calling it a competition?

Co-closer situations are difficult to sustain. In this day and age of specialization, the most successful teams have someone emerge. That's what their managers really want, too. By the way, in Oakland, don't kid yourself that Brad Ziegler will be that guy. He's a fad, where Joey Devine has the goods. That's why Oakland went after Devine from Atlanta - he was their future closer. In Seattle, unless they come to their senses and push Brandon Morrow back there, they'll be lost. In B-more, look for Chris Ray to get a stranglehold on that job at some point. He's another who was groomed for that role; Sherrill is a career specialist.

Brew

Nick, my H2H buddy...what's the outlook for Gallardo? Can he pitch anywhere near 200 innings after coming back from surgery?

Brew - what a coincidence! I just addressed this one a few ago.

The Brewers obviously hope to get that many from him because he's their No. 1 dude. That's probably not realistic. A torn ACL shouldn't give him many problems like arm troubles would, but I'd be concerned about his mechanics a little, at least initially, because it was his landing leg. He should be about 100 percent on Opening Day, and 200 innings isn't out of the question. I imagine the Brewers, if they're smart, will scale him back a bit - I wouldn't let him touch 200. I'd be pretty concerned next year, depending on how many innings he hits this year. My man Brew, see you in a H2H league this year? Take care.

Dan Keller

How focused should I be on successfully drafting Rangers SS/M.Young who'll will now be playing 3B, and more importantly, 1B+3B/C.Davis? He seems to be going R6 consistently in my mock 12 team rotisserie snake drafts. That seems a bit too early.

Dan - are you saying, should you target Young? He's not a player I target, but I won't be disappointed if I get him. The little extra eligibility he'll have is nice, and he should be around .300 again. I certainly wouldn't reach for him; there are a number of quality low-end shortstops out there.

Davis - I believe you're right on. I don't question Davis' ability, especially to hit for power, but people are putting WAY too much stock into a player who wasn't even considered one of the club's top prospects entering the season. He hits the ball REALLY hard, so he may hit, but he won't consistently hit .280. Power, yes, but he can be exploited, especially if he's not ready to adjust.

Mike

I inherited a team in a 14 team mixed 5x5 keeper league, with an allowance for 7 keepers from season to season. All players can be kept a max of 3 seasons (with this being the league's third season), so I lose all players after this season regardless. Teixeira, Kinsler, Carlos Lee, and Joakim Soria are no-brainers for me, so my last three spots need to come from: Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain, Torii Hunter, Corey Hart, and Adrian Beltre. I think Billingsley is a keeper, with potential and home ballpark factored in. I know Hunter and Hart both give me 20/20 players, Hunter being more consistent than Hart. Who should I keep?

I think you have answered your own question, Mike. I'd keep Billingsley, for sure, along with Hart, because of his upside, although I'm skeptical that he'll ever be much more than he is now. I like Cain, but he hasn't been anything special in fantasy. Hunter is slightly undervalued this year. The real question is, what do you expect to be available? Pitching is where you're hurting at this point, so you may be forced to keep Cain. If you believe there will be a few stud-type pitchers (relatively speaking) available whom you can target, I'd definitely make that a priority in the draft, and then you can afford to toss back Cain and keep Hunter. Hunter is a little undervalued this year. However, considering what you have in starters, you may be forced to keep Cain.

greg b

i am in a 4x4 AL only league $260 total salary - i own sherrill @ $5 from last year - and had drafted Uehara of Japan on my reserve - I can keep him at $5 also - are they keepers - or should i dangle as trade bait

I'd look to dangle both as trade bait. Sherrill is a decent value, but for that reason, you may be able to get more for him than he's worth in a trade. If not, he's not a bad keeper. For Uehara, I'd dangle him simply because I don't see him returning great value on the Orioles. However, he should return $5 at least, maybe a buck or two more. Again, if you don't get more quality in return, it's not a bad thing if you hold on. It's never a bad idea to say someone is available for trade, though.

Bill F

Forecaster and HQ Insider both contain identical projection stats for Luke Scott (Bal OF). Forecaster values him at R$16 while HQ Insider's most recent valuation for 5x5 is R$12. Based on identical data, is this 25% reduction a typical variance between these two sources? My question is based on a 5x5 AL only keeper decision.

Bill, the two are essentially the same source, but there are some subtleties to interpreting their values. I'll leave this question to one of the HQ experts, who I'm sure will be glad to answer your question.

JWEAV

Do you think Wieters will be the catcher on opening day?

No. The Orioles simply don't want to commit to that quite yet, which is why they signed Gregg Zaun. Even if he has a torrid spring, I'd bet they'll send him to Triple-A Norfolk. IF that happens, though, I'd also expect plenty of pressure to bring him up quickly, which means he'd probably be up in May, June at the latest.

Shoeless D

Emmanuel Burriss? Full time ML shortstop, or not?

Not, because of the two years and 18.5 million duckets they're shelling out to Edgar Renteria. Now, full-time (or close) major league 2B? This year, that's what I think should happen. Burriss has a pretty good batting eye, makes good contact and has plenty of speed. His only comp is Kevin Frandsen (please stop calling him a prospect) and Eugenio Velez (who isn't very accomplished at the plate). Burriss is a sleeper of ours this year.

Thanks for all your questions! My time is up, but stay tuned, there are more experts on the way to answer your questions!