Impact Analysis: Detroit Lions' passing game

October 15, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

When the Detroit Lions removed team president and general manager Matt Millen from his job in late September, Lions fans rejoiced. The end of the Millen era - Detroit was an NFL-worst 31-84 during his tenure - meant a light could be seen at the end of the tunnel for the beleaguered fan base. However, the move was not the last one they performed to clean house.

Detroit sent receiver Roy Williams to the Dallas Cowboys just prior to the Tuesday, Oct. 14, trade deadline for three draft picks, signaling their intent to build for the future.

They also placed quarterback Jon Kitna (back) on Injured Reserve after failing to move him before the deadline. For his part, Kitna claims he was healthy enough Friday, Oct. 10, to play the following week, but that the team wanted to use his injury as an excuse to bench him.

With the majority of the changes this week coming in the passing game, that aspect of the offense will be the focal point of this report - if you are looking for analysis of their running backs, check out Mike Mady's Impact Analysis from Wednesday, Oct. 1.

A quick note on the running backs, neither of the team's two main options is catching a lot of passes out of the backfield. Running back Rudi Johnson has just seven receptions this year, and his career high for a season is 23 - set twice with the Cincinnati Bengals (2005, 2006).

Rookie tailback Kevin Smith has done better with 14 receptions for 89 yards this year, but neither can be viewed as great targets in the passing game.

Quarterbacks

With Kitna done for the year, quarterback Dan Orlovsky should remain the starter for the immediate future. The former University of Connecticut quarterback made his first career start in Week 6, and promptly wound up on most weekly highlight films when he scrambled out of the back of his own end zone for a safety in a two-point loss. Orlovsky finished the game completing 12 of 21 passes for 150 yards and one touchdown.

This is Orlovsky's fourth season in the league; he has completed 34 of 66 passes for 316 yards and one touchdown in that time. Orlovsky might not have Kitna's arm, but that shouldn't matter with the team wanting to emphasize the run. Following their moves this week, they may well have no choice than to take that approach.

With offensive coordinator Jim Colletto indicating that Orlovsky is taking 80 percent of the reps in practice this week, he likely will remain the starter for the time being. However, the team has another youngster - quarterback Drew Stanton - as a potential starter down the line.

Stanton was a second-round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft out of Michigan State University. However, he received very little work during his rookie year, ending up on the Injured Reserve in August 2007 after undergoing surgery to clean up some knee cartilage. Former offensive coordinator Mike Martz reportedly messed with his mechanics last season to the point that when the new regime switched him back before this year he had difficulty even throwing a spiral.

Entering 2008, Stanton looked decent in minimal preseason work (seven of eight for 85 yards and one touchdown in two games) before spraining his thumb in practice. With a five-week layoff, Stanton hasn't received many reps, and he likely won't be used until he gets in more practice time and can feel more comfortable with his mechanics, which doesn't figure to be a short process. His playing time could also be curtailed if Orlovsky plays well. However, it's hard to see the team burning a second-round draft pick on Stanton and not at least seeing what he can do in a game at some point this year.

Wide Receivers

Table: Detroit Lions targets, Week 3 through 6, 2008

Player	Plays	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD
Calvin Johnson	8.00	3.33	47.0	0.33
Shaun McDonald	2.33	1.00	6.0	0.00
Mike Furrey	2.00	1.33	5.3	0.00
Brandon Middleton	0.33	0.00	0.0	0.00

Next up are the wide receivers, where the bulk of the impact should be felt. With Williams out of town, Johnson is the new sheriff in town - if he hadn't already surpassed Williams as the top guy.

Williams averaged 9.33 targets over the last four weeks, tops among Detroit receivers, though that number was skewed by his 19 targets in Week 5. He had just nine targets in the other two games combined over the last month.

Nonetheless, Williams' departure should free up some targets in the offense, and the question becomes who will be the main benefactor?

The second overall pick last season, Johnson has put up impressive totals in his first two seasons. He caught 48 passes for 756 yards and four touchdowns last year, adding 52 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

This season, Johnson is averaging 4.6 receptions for 75.4 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game. Without Williams in town, opponents won't have to consider doubling another receiver on the field, which could leave Johnson facing lots of double coverage. For the year, he's averaging 9.4 targets per game, which should increase with Williams out of the picture.

McDonald is coming off his best season, catching 79 passes for 943 yards and six touchdowns as the team's third receiver. This year has been a different story as he has caught just 11 passes for 74 yards; those numbers are more in line with his season averages of 32 receptions for 384 yards and 1.3 touchdowns from 2004 through 2006 with the St. Louis Rams.

He's the receiver expected to step into the role vacated by Williams. As such, you should expect him to see a bump in targets, though don't look for Williams' level of production as he isn't as talented and could lose out with the teams wanting to establish more of a ground presence.

Furrey exploded on the scene in 2006 with 98 receptions for 1,086 yards and six touchdowns after not catching a pass the year before as he lined up at free safety. However, following the selection of Johnson those numbers fell to 61 receptions for 664 yards and one touchdown last season. Thus far, he has caught just eight passes for 52 yards this year.

Middleton has not caught any passes this year, and he has received just one target in the offense. He played in five games with Detroit last year, catching eight passes for 70 yards and one touchdown - all of his catches came in the last four weeks of the season.

With just one start, Orlovsky has not had much time to establish a rapport with any of the receivers. Johnson should remain his top target, but look to see if he develops some chemistry over the next couple of weeks with either McDonald or Furrey.

Tight ends

The position has not been utilized heavily in the team's offense this season with tight ends Michael Gaines and John Owens receiving four combined targets in Week 6. The position was not targeted at all in their previous game.

Gaines leads the position with five receptions for 50 yards. Owens has caught one pass for three yards while tight end Casey FitzSimmons has caught five passes for 37 yards and a touchdown.

Looking at career numbers, Gaines has caught 61 passes for 600 yards and four touchdowns in five NFL seasons. Owens has 12 grabs for 109 yards during his six seasons, and FitzSimmons has notched 63 receptions for 501 yards and five touchdowns in six years.

As you can see, none of these tight ends has ever been a great threat offensively in their careers.

Fantasy football outlook

The two moves Detroit made at the trade deadline indicates the team is looking towards the future and wants to emphasize the run strongly, which is something they've discussed since the offseason. However, they have been unable to implement it after incurring some early deficits.

Their Week 6 game was the first one they haven't fallen behind early in. They were able to keep it close, and it could show their offensive preference as they attempted just 21 passes while rushing the ball 24 times. It was the fewest pass attempts they've had all season.

Orlovsky should only be considered in the deepest of leagues, and then only if you lack a backup who's starting. The offense could be scaled back so as not to overcomplicate things for Orlovsky, which would likely limit his value. Even if he shows improvement with more snaps, he can't be recommended as an acquisition except in extreme cases.

Stanton should not be considered as he has not demonstrated anything at the NFL level.

Of the receivers, Johnson has the most value by far. Even with him facing the near certainty of more double teams, Orlovsky will likely rely heavily on the talented wideout. Johnson also has all the physical tools that suggest he should be able to fight through double coverage.

McDonald gains the most from this trade. He wasn't receiving many targets with Williams in the offense (4.6 per game this season), but that should increase now that he's in Dallas. McDonald has proven to be a solid possession receiver, and his greatest value would come in point-per-reception leagues. Owners could also look to acquire McDonald if they lack depth at receiver in very deep leagues.

Furrey should see a slight bump in value, though it likely won't be as much as McDonald. Like McDonald, his best value will come in point-per-reception leagues. However, he should remain a free agent in all formats at this time.

The tight ends have no fantasy value this season. They're not targeted enough, and that likely won't change with the team focusing more on the run.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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