Fantasy Football: Players on the downswing

August 26, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

You always want to grab players when they are on the up; grabbing them on the downswing - not advisable. You might see some elite names on this list, but either because of injury, lack of opportunity or a new team, they are no longer at that level.

The key here is their ceiling; they should still be capable of a decent season, but they just don't have the upside of some other players. Buy into them with caution.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning, New York Giants

New York could give Manning one of the few $100 million contracts in the league this year. Maybe they should save some of that money for a wide receiver? With Plaxico Burress suspended for the final five games last year (including playoffs), Manning threw for just 783 yards and two touchdowns - that's around 157 yards per game.

Well, Plax ain't coming back. The rest of his receivers are Domenik Hixon, Steven Smith, Sinorice Moss, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham? We don't see any world beaters in there just yet. Not to mention this is still a run-first team. Manning made his money with his playoff run a couple of years ago; don't let that sway you on his fantasy value. He's no Peyton.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

The 'Beck made it into only seven games last year; back problems were the main culprit. It was the third time in the last five years he hasn't completed a full season. How well can a 33-year-old QB (34 this season) rebound from a bulging disc? He says he's fine, but backs can be fickle.

Not only that, he'll be learning a new offense under head coach Jim Mora and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. These two favor a more run-intensive approach than the departed Mike Holmgren. Only Jeff Garcia (in 2001 with the San Francisco 49ers) has thrown for more than 21 touchdowns in a Knapp-led offense. We don't foresee anymore 3,500-yard, 25-touchdown seasons from Hass.

Running backs

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

How close to the twilight is LT?

LT's 2008 line: 1,536 total yards, 52 receptions, 12 total touchdowns - not exactly a horrible season for anyone ordinary. It's far less than what we've come to expect from Tomlinson, though. He was hampered by a turf toe injury for most of the first half (he didn't miss a game). Toe injuries can be debilitating for a running back's explosiveness.

That wasn't the end, though. He tore a tendon in his groin before the Chargers' first playoff game and carried the ball just five times. Sparkplug back Darren Sproles averaged 129 total yards and 1.67 total touchdowns per game over their last three games, including playoffs; he should command more touches. Oh, LT is also 30 and has 2,657 carries in his career.

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles

How many times has Westbrook (ankle) completed a full slate of games? The same as this writer. He underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his chronically troublesome knee at season's end. Then, the injury bug struck early this year with ankle surgery to clean out some scar tissue and remove a pair of bone spurs. He is ahead of schedule in his rehab, but there is still no word if that means he'll return for the season opener. Philly expects him to be ready, though.

He might not have his usual workload even when he does return. LeSean McCoy, a 2009 second-round draft pick, has looked good in camp and should spell Westy. Philly also drafted wideout Jeremy Maclin in the first round; he could take a few looks away from Westbrook in the passing game.

Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns

New head coach Eric Mangini wants to control the clock with a power running game. Lewis (ankle) fits that bill to a tee. The bulky back (5-foot-11, 245 pounds) has carried the load plenty of times as a feature back in the past. Sounds like sure fantasy success. However, Lewis is returning from offseason ankle surgery, and he has averaged 3.6 yards per carry or less in three of the last four seasons.

Mangini also loves running back Jerome Harrison and sees him in a similar light as Leon Washington. Harrison is a more explosive back than Lewis and doesn't have the wear and tear of the vet (2,399 carries). Opponents should be able to key on the running game, too, with the deluge of playmakers in Cleveland's passing game this offseason.

Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys

The last two years have been more about what Barber could do rather than what he has done. He finally took over the starting role last year only, to be hurt in the second half. He had only 13 carries for 15 yards in the last four weeks, which saw him miss one contest.

This year, he's still expected to be the starter, but Dallas is planning to go with a three-headed rushing attack. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice should both eat into Barber's touches. They also won't have wide receiver Terrell Owens to help keep opposing defenses honest anymore. Temper your expectations for Barber, largely because of the Ghidorah rushing attack.

Wide receivers

Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills

Since 2000, Owens has scored at least 10 touchdowns seven times; he was injured for more than half of one of those seasons, too. Buffalo quarterbacks combined for just 13 touchdown passes last year. Trent Edwards should be better in his third season, but how many times can we really expect TO to score? Now, he is dealing with a nagging toe injury that could affect him for weeks or more into the season.

He also looked a step slow in Dallas last year. It's surprising this hasn't happened to the boisterous wideout sooner since he's 35 (36 in December). He keeps himself in such good physical shape that a complete drop shouldn't be expected, but he'll be fighting the weather, a worse offense and his age this year.

Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers

Driver topped the 1,000-yard mark for the fifth straight season (and sixth in seven years) last year. It's deceiving, though, as his yardage has dropped in each of the last two seasons. He's also one year removed from a two-touchdown effort, and Greg Jennings has emerged as this offense's biggest receiving weapon. Looking for more?

The Packers have James Jones (third-round pick in 2007) and Jordy Nelson (second-round pick in 2008) waiting in line. Green Bay needs to see what they have in them. Driver can't go on forever; he's already 34. He is still a solid possession guy, but that won't cut it for fantasy owners forever. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers loves spreading the ball around in their offense, too.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers

The 33-year-old Ward (shoulder) underwent shoulder surgery this offseason and has had injury problems in the past. He missed at least one game in the three seasons prior to last. His yardage total had either stayed the same or been on the decline in the five seasons prior to last year, too.

Santonio Holmes looks ready to break out, and 2008 second-round draft pick Limas Sweed impressed the coaches in camp earlier this year. Both should be in line for more targets. Ward is still a possession guy, so he should be fine even if he's losing a step, but it'll be tough to count on him for another 1,000-plus yards and seven-plus touchdowns.

Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets

Cotchery has always had trouble creating separation downfield; he's far from being a burner. His average yards per catch (12.1) dropped 1.7 yards last year; he has just a 12.5-yard average for his career. He's now the team's top target with Laveranues Coles gone.

Who'll be tossing him the ball? Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens are expected to compete for the starting job. Neither will help the fantasy value of the wideouts. Cotchery should be the focus of opposing secondaries, too, with Chansi Stuckey, David Clowney and Brad Smith (ouch!) being the other pieces of their receiving corps.

Tight ends

Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons

Tony G isn't the focal point in Atlanta

Yup, we might have seen the best from T-Gon. He won't be the focal point of the offense anymore. Really, the Kansas City Chiefs had only wide receiver Dwayne Bowe to take away targets from the future Hall of Famer. In Atlanta, wide receiver Roddy White will command looks, in addition to the high expected carry total for running back Michael Turner. The latter, especially, should receive plenty of work around the end zone.

Also, Atlanta's defense is much stronger than Kansas City's. They might not be throwing the ball as much to keep up with opposing offenses. Defensive-minded head coach Mike Smith prefers a grind-it-out approach. Gonzalez still is a valuable No. 1 tight end, but temper your expectations from his previous two years.

Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints

Shockey has been about potential for his entire career. A big reason why he hasn't lived up to expectations: injuries. Last year was no different; he played in only 12 games and failed to show much of a connection with quarterback Drew Brees. Shockey will turn 29 during the season, and his receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns have been on the decline since 2006.

Wideouts Marques Colston and Lance Moore as well as running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas - they're all going to require targets in the Saints' passing offense. Even in his prime, Shockey was not a huge touchdown threat (career-high seven in 2005 and 2006). He has topped 700 yards only twice in his career, too.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Michael, at 06:42 on 08/29/09, says: The counterpoint to what you wrote about Hasslebeck is that the RBs on the Seahawks are Julius Jones and Edgerrin James. This alone might mean he will be flinging the rock more than we think.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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