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Week 1 fantasy football player analysis: defensive teams

September 3, 2008 @ 20:28:53

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Herija C. Green

We introduce our positional player analysis for the 2008 season. In past years, KFFL always evaluated each game matchup to explore the value of players to make your life easier. This year, we are launching a new format that we feel will be easier for fantasy owners. Instead of having to view many different team report articles, you can come to a one-stop shop for your positional questions.

Editor's note: All statistics in this article are from Week 1 to Week 17 of the 2007 season, unless otherwise noted. Statistics appearing in each table are per-game averages.

Fantasy value: No. 1 defensive teams

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	15.6	288.6	2.88	1.19	0.69

The Chiefs fielded quite the inefficient offense in 2007: 13.5 offensive points (tied for second-worst), 276.8 net yards (second to last), 3.38 sacks allowed (tied for worst) and two turnovers per game.
Running back Larry Johnson is healthy, but KC made no changes that are expected to have an impact, and, yes, Brodie Croyle is their quarterback.
The Patriots tried to inject new life into the defense by drafting linebacker Jerod Mayo; they added several veterans as well.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	17.6	321.8	2.81	1.25	0.88

Buffalo struggled to score (13.5 offensive points per game) last year.
The Bills didn't turn it over much (0.88 interceptions and 0.44 fumbles lost per game), but quarterback Trent Edwards is still raw.
They yielded a respectable 1.62 sacks per game as well, but their rock of a left tackle, Jason Peters, remains a holdout.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	25.8	377.6	2.31	1.06	1.12

The Falcons made no noticeable changes to an offensive line that was largely responsible for their 2.88 sacks per game allowed in 2007.
Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan turned it over frequently in college, so he may have trouble remaining below last year's standard (1.5 per game).
Detroit is expected to feature more of a ball-control offense, which should theoretically cut down on the time its D is on the field.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	17.8	313.8	2.31	1.25	0.56

Last year, the Titans turned the ball over 2.06 times per game and yielded 1.88 sacks per game, putting them in the bottom half of the league in both.
Titans quarterback Vince Young enters his third season in a new offense after he put up a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2007.
Last year the Jags registered six sacks and five turnovers in two contests with Tennessee.

San Diego Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	16.2	320.2	2.56	1.88	1.06

The Panthers are glad to have quarterback Jake Delhomme (elbow) back; rookie running back Jonathan Stewart gives them a strong one-two punch with halfback DeAngelo Williams.
Carolina will be without wideout Steve Smith (suspension), though, putting much of the pressure on its new run-oriented offense.
Last year the Panthers gave up 2.06 sacks and 1.75 turnovers, both middling numbers, per game to their opponents; the Chargers relentlessly seek both.

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	19.9	305.0	3.31	0.94	0.62

Washington was respectable in terms of sacks (1.75) and turnovers (1.81) allowed per game to defenses last season.
They're implementing a West Coast offense, though; the style is difficult to adapt to, and the Redskins offense has looked feeble in the preseason.
The Giants may have lost defensive ends Michael Strahan (retired) and Osi Umenyiora (knee), but Mathias Kiwanuka is no slouch.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	18.4	307.6	2.88	1.19	0.62

The Browns protected the quarterback (1.19 sacks allowed per game - tied for third) last year, and they turned it over a respectable 1.82 times per game.
Browns quarterback Derek Anderson (concussion) hasn't played since Week 2 of the preseason; it will be interesting to see how he responds.
Dallas upgraded its defense by adding veteran linebacker Zach Thomas and cornerback Adam Jones during the offseason.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	20.6	354.7	2.62	1.00	1.06

The Colts are well-known for their efficiency offensively; in 2007, they had per-game averages of 1.44 sacks allowed (seventh) and 1.19 turnovers (second).
Quarterback Peyton Manning (knee) will see his first action in a live game after missing the entire preseason; the Colts have a few mildly concerning injuries along the offensive line.
Chicago still has playmakers, but a potentially poor offense could leave this defensive unit in some unfavorable predicaments.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	18.1	338.3	2.19	1.06	0.88

Green Bay has the weapons and scored aplenty, but throw out last year's per-game averages (1.19 sacks allowed, 1.5 turnovers).
This will be quarterback Aaron Rodgers' first NFL start; he's injury prone, and his backups are both rookies; No. 3 receiver James Jones (knee) will likely sit this one out, and the offensive line is banged up.
The Vikings added defensive end Jared Allen to improve the pass rush and upgraded the secondary as well.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	15.6	278.8	2.00	1.06	1.06

The Saints tied for the fewest sacks allowed last season, although they turned the ball over nearly twice per game.
New Orleans gave up a combined five sacks and three turnovers in two games against the Bucs last year.

Fantasy value: No. 1 or bench defensive teams

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	22.6	330.2	2.25	1.12	0.69

San Francisco was perhaps the league's worst offense in 2007: They were last or tied for last in yards per game, sacks allowed and turnovers.
They turned the ball over 2.12 times per game; new offensive coordinator Mike Martz's offense places little emphasis on protecting the football - and as a byproduct of the scheme, the quarterback.
Last season the Cardinals recorded six sacks but only one turnover in two tilts versus the Niners.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	17.4	313.3	2.25	1.19	0.56

The Vikings were in the bottom half in turnovers (1.82 per game) and sacks (2.38 per game) given up this past season.
Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson (knee) had a 9-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he has reportedly made great strides and should be fine this week.
The Vikes feature a fierce running game, too, but they'll be without left offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie (suspension) for four games.
In two contests in 2007, the Pack recorded eight sacks and three turnovers against Minnesota.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	14.5	279.7	1.75	1.38	0.94

Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney (foot) is back, although he isn't at full speed yet and is not expected to start.
Chicago's offensive line is getting old and has a couple of key injuries - not good news for a team that allowed 2.69 sacks per game (24th) last season.
The Bears also turned it over 2.22 times per game; the onus falls on safe-but-boring quarterback Kyle Orton to improve that number.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

G	Off Pts / G Ald	Yds / G Ald	Sck	INT	Fum Rec
16	22.6	348.7	1.38	1.19	1.00

Very raw rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, by default (the team's other options are injured), will start for Baltimore.
The Ravens allowed 2.44 sacks per game (bottom half) and 2.5 turnovers per game (worst in the NFL) to defenses last year.
In two games against the Ravens in 2007, the Bengals registered four sacks and an incredible 12 turnovers.

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