Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Fantasy football players on the downswing

August 14, 2008 @ 08:31:18

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green and Nicholas Minnix

As you look to the draft and waiver wire to build your team, there is no doubt you will be looking for some underrated veteran players who offer good value. These are the players that are sometimes ignored because they don't have the seemingly prerequisite upside that rookies and younger players have.

While veteran players can provide a solid backbone to your team, there are some out there in situations that you should be wary of. Like visiting a car lot, you are not going to buy a new car until after you've kicked the tires a bit and slammed some doors to make sure everything is all right. Well, we've "kicked the tires" and "slammed the doors"; below is a list of veteran players we feel could be ready to regress.

Quarterbacks

Alex D. Smith, San Francisco 49ers - Smith (shoulder) could be on his last legs in San Francisco. The former first overall draft pick is battling quarterbacks J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill for the starting job. Early reports are that Smith is adapting slowly to new offensive coordinator Mike Martz's complex offense, and he is still not yet 100 percent after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury last year. According to head coach Mike Nolan, Smith is behind O'Sullivan in their bid to win the starting job.

Smith's best numbers came in 2006, when he threw for 2,890 yards and 16 touchdowns. However, his three best games that year came in the season's first three weeks, and he has thrown for 200-plus yards just three times in his last 20 starts. At this point, Smith appears to be the latest top-drafted quarterback to wear the bust label. He is an average No. 3 option, at best, that is if he were to win the starting job.

Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions - Kitna turns 36 in September, and after enjoying two of his best seasons in Detroit, he could be on the decline. He threw 42 interceptions over the last two years but helped to offset that with 8,276 yards and 39 touchdown passes. However, the departure of offensive coordinator Mike Martz coupled with the shift to a run-first offense could hamper Kitna's fantasy value.

Kitna's previous high for yards was 3,591, and he managed to throw for 20-plus touchdowns just twice in his nine years before joining the Lions. He struggled mightily during the final three games of last season, throwing eight interceptions against three touchdown passes and averaging just 221 yards per game. Don't expect Kitna to put up the same numbers he has the past two seasons, making him a better pick as a No. 2 quarterback this year.

Running backs

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals - Looking at James' profile, the first thing to stand out is his age. At 30, he is at the age when most running backs begin to really feel the wear and tear of carrying the ball in the NFL. As you would expect from a nine-year vet of James' stature, he has amassed 2,849 carries during his career, which has likely worn a lot of tread off his tires. He has reached double digits in touchdowns just once during the last four years and scored just one in his final six games last year. In addition, his receiving numbers dropped off considerably the past two seasons.

If you are looking for a starting running back for your roster, it might be best to grab one without the red flags that come up with James. If you do select James, do so as a low-end No. 2 back with little upside.

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Coming off a 416-carry campaign in 2006, many expected Johnson (foot) to suffer some kind of repercussion. Those who did appear right, as the bruising back stumbled out of the gates before suffering a cracked foot that sidelined him for the season's final eight games.

Head coach Herman Edwards seems to have learned his lesson and has indicated Johnson will be lucky to touch the ball 30 times in a game. While a decreased workload should help keep Johnson fresh, it could hurt his value as he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last year. He also found the end zone just three times last season after averaging more than a touchdown per game during the two previous years. The offensive line should be improved in 2008, but it's still unlikely to compare to the powerful lines that helped propel him to his two elite seasons. Johnson is still a quality fantasy back, but he is a better fit later in Round 1 and would ideally be a No. 2 back.

Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - The Giants finished fourth in the league in rushing last year with Jacobs as the starter. However, his upright running style leaves him vulnerable to big hits and could see him spend time on the sidelines; he missed five games because of injuries last year.

Running back Ahmad Bradshaw emerged in the postseason as he gained 208 yards and scored a touchdown in four games, while halfback Derrick Ward was strong early before getting injured. Consequently, the Giants are expected to take the running back-by-committee approach this year. Jacobs still has solid value, but it appears as if the 6-foot-4, 264-pound back could find it hard to improve on his 2007 season. Consider Jacobs a high-end No. 3 back.

Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - Parker (leg) figures to see a drop in touches, and consequently value, this year after the Steelers drafted running back Rashard Mendenhall in the first round to give them a solid one-two punch in the backfield. Parker's touchdowns disappeared in 2007 (just two), and with Mendenhall in town the chances of them bouncing back to the 16 he scored in 2006 look slim.

Parker is coming back from a fractured leg last year, and though it is not expected to slow him down in training camp, it's still a worrisome sign anytime a back sustains a major leg injury. The loss of offensive guard Alan Faneca (New York Jets) hurts the offensive line and further chips away at Parker's potential. The surrounding pieces appear to be taking too much away from Parker to make him a top running back. He is a low-end No. 2, though his best value would be as a No. 3 back.

Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - A torn knee ligament ruined what was a breakout campaign for Brown (knee). The ligament in question was his ACL, which can take 18 months to fully recover from. Come Sept. 7, it will have been a little more than 10 months since Brown's injury.

Running back Ricky Williams has emerged from this mess after a nearly three-year hiatus from game action. According to first-year head coach Tony Sparano, Williams has looked good in training camp. The former rushing leader could push Brown from his perch as No. 1, especially if Brown isn't up to speed come Week 1. Remember, it is a new coaching staff in Miami, so Brown may need to prove himself all over again. Finally, a poor passing game could limit the running game in general with defenses able to stack the line of scrimmage. All of this points to Brown declining in fantasy value. He is a big question mark even as a No. 3 back with moderate upside.

Wide receivers

Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The 36-year-old Galloway has turned back the clock during the last three years in Tampa Bay, posting three straight 1,000-yard seasons in head coach Jon Gruden's West Coast offense. However, Galloway showed significant signs of slowing last year. Excluding his 159-yard effort in Week 13, Galloway managed just 207 yards over his final five games (Week 11 through Week 16) and didn't score after Week 11. In the Buccaneers' playoff game, Galloway managed just one reception for a lowly nine yards.

Injuries were at least partially to blame for Galloway's late-season struggles, but at his age they are to be expected. His deep speed is a poor match for quarterback Jeff Garcia's weak arm, and overall the veteran had more bad performances than good ones in 2007. He should be a midrange No. 3 receiver, though be prepared for some more inconsistent performances.

Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts - Harrison's (knee) days as a top receiver could finally be in the past. He had managed to avoid serious injury during his career, but he did not play in the regular season after Week 7 due to a knee injury that continues to linger. During his absence last year, wide receiver Reggie Wayne proved he could be the No. 1 guy. Receiver Anthony Gonzalez also stepped up and reassured the Colts they have an adequate replacement for whenever Harrison hangs up his cleats.

It still might be too early to discount Harrison. He has reportedly looked good to go early in training camp. However, the writing appears to be on the wall for the soon-to-be 36-year-old and this could be one of his last seasons of top fantasy production. He should be considered a high-risk No. 2 receiver.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers - Ward (knee) has been declining across the board regularly in recent years. Last year he caught 71 passes for just 732 yards, which was his lowest yardage total since 2000. It appears wide receiver Santonio Holmes will surpass him as the No. 1 guy this year. Plus, the Steelers drafted receiver Limas Sweed, who could take away some red zone targets with his size.

Ward is 32 and coming off offseason knee surgery, which lends more backing to the argument that the ever-smiling receiver is finally losing a step. Ward's best value is as a high-end No. 3 receiver.

Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks - Branch (knee) suffered a torn ACL during the Seahawks' second playoff game in January, and the injury may keep him out for the early part of the season. Injuries are not a new problem for Branch, who has competed in all 16 games just once during his six seasons, including missing seven games in two seasons with Seattle.

With a bevy of young receivers jockeying for playing time in camp, Branch is someone who looks ready to take a substantial step back in 2008. Take him as nothing more than a No. 5 option with considerable risk and moderate upside.

Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens - Instead of progressing during his third season as many receivers do, Clayton took some significant steps back. Health was a major factor as he was dogged by nagging injuries throughout the 2007 season, catching more than three passes in a game just four times all year and finishing with 50-plus receiving yards three times. He performed miserably down the stretch with just seven receptions for 93 yards in his final three games.

Quarterback problems could limit him, but he will also have to watch out for third-year receiver Demetrius Williams, who Clayton is competing with for the No. 2 job in camp. Williams is expected to win the job at this time. With so much uncertainty, Clayton is not worth drafting outside very deep leagues.

Javon Walker, Oakland Raiders - Walker (knee) is returning from another injury-plagued season. He suffered a knee injury in Week 3 and did not play again until Week 12. After returning, Walker was ineffective and caught just seven passes in five games.

Already there are reports he is suffering from lingering problems with his knee, and news recently surfaced that he had to be talked out of retiring by owner Al Davis. Wide receivers Ronald Curry and Drew Carter are both looking good in camp and could be developing better chemistry with quarterback JaMarcus Russell. Concerns over Walker's health and the toll that two serious knee injuries have taken on his ability to be a playmaker make him a risky pick as a fourth receiver.

Tight ends

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers - After burning a high pick on Davis, the 49ers the 24-year-old has been a disappointment for the most part during his two seasons in the pros.

Now with offensive coordinator Mike Martz in town, things could become even tougher as the tight end position rarely stands out in Martz's offense. Quarterback issues could also play a role in Davis' future as without a decent option under center, it figures to be difficult for Davis to put up quality numbers. Any owner taking him should do so as a strong No. 2 tight end.

Benjamin Watson, New England Patriots - Watson could be a victim more than a beneficiary of the Patriots' potent offense. With only so many balls to go around, it appears as though Watson is well down the pecking order. He received only 52 targets in 2007 and was looked at 13 times in the red zone (just 5.5 percent of the team's red zone targets).

Injuries have also played a big part in his four professional seasons; Watson played in just 12 games last year following a 13-game effort in 2006. Finally, Watson dropped some passes near the end of last year and could have lost some of quarterback Tom Brady's confidence. Likely overvalued in New England's offense, Watson makes a midrange No. 2 tight end.

Conclusion

This is by no means an exhaustive list, nor are these players guaranteed to disappear this season. Most of them should still have decent fantasy value. However, many of these players may not live up to the standards they have set in previous years. Keep this in mind when considering taking one of them on draft day.

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Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.