Fantasy Grapevine
By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by KFFL Staff and Nicholas Minnix
Fantasy Grapevine
Now that KFFL has released its player projections for the 2007 season, expect us to fine-tune them on a weekly basis. Nothing, especially considering the time of year, should be written in ink.
The ever-changing landscape of the NFL means that what we think we know today will more than likely take a different shape tomorrow.
Training camps kicked off this week, so KFFL is already beginning to get a sniff of the wave of changes to come. Signings, holdouts, injuries and even legal matters are beginning to affect the fantasy scene.
In light of recent player changes along with additions and subtractions from
our player projections, we bring you the latest installment of Fantasy Football
Grapevine. It's geared to keep the fantasy owner up-to-speed on the changes
we have made to our projections and the thought process behind them.
QUARTERBACKS - MOVING UP
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Reports in offseason workouts indicated that Schaub struggled a bit in his initial workouts with his new team. However, Pro Bowl wide receiver Andre Johnson stated in an interview that he could tell a distinct difference (a good one, apparently) between Schaub and departed passer David Carr (Carolina Panthers). He could very well be an upgrade, but it's still a bit early to tell. Houston added a veteran receiver in Keenan McCardell to start opposite Johnson, which should aid Schaub's production in the slightest fashion. Perhaps another touchdown pass or two is in the cards for Schaub as a result.
Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns - Enters Rankings
The Browns drafted their likely quarterback of the future, Brady Quinn, in the first round of the NFL Draft. Rumors were that Anderson had a shot to start in the meantime, though, and now they appear to be solid reports. He enters camp as the starter (and initial bridge to Quinn), and thus, he enters our rankings. In five games (three starts), the 6-foot-6, 230-pounder from Oregon State showed some moxie while completing 56.4 percent of his passes for 793 yards and five touchdowns last year. Athletically, he appears to be an upgrade over Frye, but he still isn't a viable fantasy option, even as backup.
Joey Harrington, Atlanta Falcons - Enters Rankings
The Falcons have suspended quarterback Vick for the first four games of the season without pay, and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has ordered Vick to not attend training camp. That makes Harrington the starter (barring another catastrophe) for at least the first four games of the season. Last year, in 11 games, the University of Oregon product completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 2,236 yards, 12 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He has thrown more picks than interceptions in his career, and he has a group of receivers (other than Joe Horn) that are used to working with Vick. How will they adjust? Harrington isn't worth a fantasy draft pick at this juncture.
RUNNING BACKS - MOVING UP
Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons
Norwood was already a breakout candidate, but he has been getting a lot more reps during initial training camp workouts with the Falcons. Why? Running back Warrick Dunn (back) had surgery to repair a herniated disc this past week, and he's expected to miss three to four weeks. Dunn said that he feels pretty good, enough to begin some light workouts, but the man is 32 years old. It might be time for the team to begin evaluating for the future, anyway, with quarterback Michael Vick in hot water, so Norwood is a player on the rise. It's looking more and more like he'll get the majority of the carries this season. As a result, he could be a No. 3 fantasy back with upside, and he may not slip past the sixth round.
Tony Fisher, New York Jets - Enters Rankings
Running back Cedric Houston has decided to call it quits, so the Jets had a need for depth at running back. They didn't waste much time by signing Fisher to a deal the same day. Fisher, much like Houston, isn't expected to have a large role in the offense with running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington in the picture. Last year, with the St. Louis Rams, the 27-year-old rushed for just nine yards on six attempts. He has been a formidable receiver out of the backfield in his five-year career, but little work means little value. He enters the rankings, but he's not worth fantasy consideration.
Priest Holmes, Kansas City Chiefs - Enters Rankings
Holmes (head, neck) caught football fans off-guard when he announced his intention to report to Kansas City's training camp and attempt a comeback. The former heart and soul of the offense passed a physical, but how serious is he? It's hard to be certain. Fantasy owners take notice when a man that once held the record for most touchdowns in a season steps back onto the field. Head coach Herman Edwards said that Holmes will be on a probationary period and won't be allowed to practice with the team to protect him for now. How much can the 33-year-old, who hasn't played football since the middle of the 2005 season, have left in the tank? It's likely to not be much, which is why he gets merely a nominal mention in our rankings.
WIDE RECEIVERS - MOVING UP
Keenan McCardell, Houston Texans - Enters rankings
The Texans signed McCardell off the veteran scrapheap, and now they have what seems to be a legitimate No. 2 receiver. Well, technically he doesn't have the job yet, but realistically, he's the most likely option. Remember that calf injuries limited him to 14 games and limited his effectiveness in several others; he caught just 36 passes for 437 yards and no scores. At 37, he's a shell of his former self. Wideout Eric Moulds put up pedestrian numbers (57 receptions, 557 yards and one touchdown) in his one season with this club, and McCardell's prospects don't appear to be any better, especially with an inexperienced passer in Matt Schaub. Consider McCardell no more than a low-end No. 5 receiver in your fantasy draft; he has little upside.
Eric Moulds, Tennessee Titans - Enters Rankings
The Titans signed Moulds to a one-year contract this past week. Last season, the 34-year-old had a mere 57 catches for 557 yards and one touchdown, though. His days as a fantasy factor appear to be over - especially in Nashville. Realistically, Moulds could start for this team, but the Titans have at least a half-dozen younger pass-catchers in camp. If Moulds does start, his ceiling appears to be pretty low with quarterback Vince Young at the helm. Last season's leading receiver, Drew Bennett, had 46 catches for 737 yards and three touchdowns. Moulds isn't in Bennett's class any longer, and Brandon Jones is the team's future at the position. Moulds could perhaps serve as a No. 5 receiver in deep leagues, but he's not worth a draft choice in 12-team outfits.
TIGHT ENDS - MOVING UP
No Changes
PLACE KICKERS - MOVING UP
No Changes
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - MOVING UP
Greg Spires, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Enters Rankings
Spires had been a starter for the past five years, but defensive end Gaines Adams, the No. 4 overall draft choice, was slated to start opposite mainstay defensive end Simeon Rice. The Bucs released Simeon Rice, though, and as a result, Spires is the most obvious candidate to replace him. Spires recorded 60 total tackles and eight sacks in 2004, but that was a career year, and his numbers have been otherwise sub-par. Consider him no more than a low-end No. 3 defensive lineman with little upside.
LINEBACKERS - MOVING UP
Brandon Chillar, St. Louis Rams - Enters Rankings
The Rams signed linebacker Chris Draft this offseason, and it was thought that he could be a starter. However, the team intends to give the fourth-year man, Chillar, every chance to keep his starting job on the strong side. Last season he recorded 56 total tackles (55 solo), two sacks and one forced fumble. He offers little in the way of big plays, and as such, he doesn't deserve fantasy consideration. Don't bother looking his way in your IDP draft.
DEFENSIVE BACKS - MOVING UP
No Changes
QUARTERBACKS - MOVING DOWN
Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons
Vick's dogfighting scandal has been one of the biggest controversies to hit the NFL in recent years. It's unclear what his fate with the league will be, but it seems like his reputation in Atlanta has been ruined. After being indicted on for charges related to his dogfighting, on top of his prior incidents, he seems to have worn out his welcome in Atlanta. League commissioner Roger Goodell ordered Vick to stay away from Falcons training camp. Vick may end up being suspended by the league and ineligible to play. He is a very risky pick and may only be worth taking as a flier in the final rounds in case he does end up playing this year.
Brady Quinn, Cleveland Browns
Quinn has a few obstacles keeping him from seeing time as a starter this season. Even though he did not do much when he saw playing time last season, quarterback Derek Anderson performed well in offseason workouts and is the likely candidate to start heading into the season. It could be hard for Quinn to overtake Anderson, especially since he has not signed a contract yet. Quinn needs all of the practice time he can get in training camp and will not help his cause by holding out for an extended period of time. He's not worth a draft choice except in full-retention keeper leagues.
Charlie Frye, Cleveland Browns - Removed from Rankings
With quarterback Derek Anderson performing so well this offseason, Frye may be the odd man out. Even though he was the expected starter at one time, he has not been able to outperform Anderson and has another talented quarterback to compete with in Brady Quinn. Frye did not impress when given the chance to start last season, as he threw 10 touchdowns to go along with 17 interceptions in 13 games. Fantasy owners should forget about him.
RUNNING BACKS - MOVING DOWN
Warrick Dunn, Atlanta Falcons
Dunn (back) underwent surgery on a herniated disc in his back recently and is expected to miss at least three to four weeks. Even if he is able to return within that timeframe, he will miss a significant amount of training camp and will not be in a good position to start Week 1 of the regular season. With promising running back Jerious Norwood expected to see the bulk of the playing time, the team likely won't rush Dunn back. There's always a chance that he could miss more time in the regular season since he is 32 years old. Consider Dunn no more than a low No. 4 running back with certain risk.
Cedric Houston, New York Jets - Removed from Rankings
Houston was not in a good situation, as he was buried on the depth chart behind running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. Houston left the team's training camp for personal reasons and has since made the decision that he will not return to the team. Houston said that he is done with football. Perhaps he had the talent to be a decent part-time running back in the league, but we may never find out now.
WIDE RECEIVERS - MOVING DOWN
Kevin Walter, Houston Texans
Walter was expected to start opposite Pro Bowl wideout Andre Johnson. It would've meant the first starting gig of his five-year career. The Texans signed wideout Keenan McCardell earlier this week, though, and he'll challenge for the No. 2 job. Walter still has a chance to compete; after all, McCardell has to absorb the playbook. Realistically, though, Houston probably wants someone with McCardell's experience on the field with an otherwise youthful offense. Walter's numbers take a hit, as does his already puny fantasy value. Don't even bother reading that far down your list come draft day.
TIGHT ENDS - MOVING DOWN
No Changes
PLACE KICKERS - MOVING DOWN
No Changes
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - MOVING DOWN
Simeon Rice, Free Agent - Removed from Rankings
Tampa unceremoniously cut Rice loose after he failed a physical. It appears the Bucs are finally taking the first steps toward cutting ties with some of their aging defenders, but the timing was a little surprising. Rice will likely sign somewhere else, but without a team, he has no value. As far as the rankings go, say goodbye to him for now.
LINEBACKERS - MOVING DOWN
Chris Draft, St. Louis Rams - Removed from Rankings
The Rams signed Draft this offseason, and it was a possibility that he could start on the strong side. The team said that he would back up at all three spots, though, and now it appears that the club will definitely stick with linebacker Brandon Chillar at strongside linebacker. The 31-year-old Draft may be headed for the downside of his career anyway. As a backup, he isn't worth fantasy mention, and as a result, KFFL has removed him from its rankings.
DEFENSIVE BACKS - MOVING DOWN
No Changes
