Z - MLB Positional Outlook

Starting Pitchers Outlook

May 18, 2007 @ 16:00:00

STARTING PITCHERS

Table: Do not bench list

Player	Team	Player	Team
Johan Santana	MIN	Rich Hill	CHC
Carlos Zambrano	CHC	Erik Bedard	BAL
Roy Oswalt	HOU	Aaron Harang	CIN
Jake Peavy	SD	Justin Verlander	DET
John Smoltz	ATL	John Maine	NYM
Matt Cain	SF	Ian Snell	PIT
Brandon Webb	ARI	Tim Hudson	ATL
Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	Ted Lilly	CHC
John Lackey	LAA	Cole Hamels	PHI
C.C. Sabathia	CLE	Scott Kazmir	TB
Dan Haren	OAK	Bronson Arroyo	CIN
Curt Schilling	BOS	Chris Capuano	MIL
Felix Hernandez	SEA	Mike Mussina	NYY
Ben Sheets	MIL	A.J. Burnett	TOR
Andy Pettitte	NYY

UPPER ECHELON

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

Schedule: 6 games - LAA (3), CLE (3)

Analysis: Bonderman (finger) is on the 15-day disabled list with a sore finger, which is an injury stemming from a blister he suffered earlier in May. While Bonderman is expected to be able to make his start next week, nothing is being taken for granted. If he does start, it will likely come during the series finale against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He has already faced the Angels once this year in what was one of his worse starts. Over six innings in Angel Stadium, he allowed seven runs (five earned) on 11 hits, while striking out five. This week's start will come at Comerica Park, however, where he has a 4.88 ERA with his only two wins of the season. In his career, he has a 23-23 record at home with a 4.87 ERA. Keep an eye on KFFL next week to see whether or not the team decides to start him. If he does play, he is definitely worth starting.

Randy Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Schedule: 7 games - COL (3), HOU (4)

Analysis: The 43-year-old veteran hurler turned back the clock this week, allowing only one hit over six innings while striking out nine to record his first win of the season. It was bittersweet, though, as he had to be removed during the start because his back started to stiffen. He will likely only get one start this week, coming against the Houston Astros at Chase Field. So far at home, Johnson has struggled. In four starts, he has compiled a 6.00 ERA and two losses. For his career, Johnson has gone 58-29 with a 2.77 ERA at the Chase. He has not faced the Astros this year or in the past three seasons. While his back stiffness may be worrying, Johnson has now had two solid starts in a row. He should be started against the Astros this week.

Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees

Schedule: 6 games - BOS (3), LAA (3)

Analysis: Next week should be a big week for Wang and the Yankees, as they will be facing two division leaders, including their rivals, the Boston Red Sox. Wang could face both this week, as he will likely be starting the series opener against the Red Sox and the series finale against the Angels. Wang picked up his second win this season Wednesday, May 16, allowing just one run on six hits to the Chicago White Sox. He already has one start against the Red Sox this year, allowing four runs on six hits in six innings. He has yet to face the Angels this year; however, in 2006, he went 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA against them. For the season, he has a 5.31 ERA with a 1-2 record when pitching at Yankee Stadium. In his career, he has gone 17-7 with a 3.42 ERA at home. There is also a chance Yankees manager Joe Torre will start Wang on three days' rest Sunday, May 20, against the New York Mets. Keep an eye on KFFL for updates on that situation. Regardless, Wang should be started in each of his starts this week.

Chris Young, San Diego Padres

Schedule: 6 games - CHC (3), MIL (3)

Analysis: Young will be starting only once for the Padres in the coming week. That start should fall against the Chicago Cubs at home at PETCO Park. At home this season, Young has a miniscule 0.44 ERA in three starts, allowing only one earned run in 20 1/3 innings. His record at home is 2-1. For his career, he has gone 7-6 at home with a 3.81 ERA. He has yet to face the Cubs this year. Last year, he started two games against them, going 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA. With his previous success against them and his near-perfect home form, Young should definitely be started this week.

Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Schedule: 6 games - @DET (3), @NYY (3)

Analysis: 2007 has not been the type of year that Santana, the Angels or fantasy owners have expected from the Angels' potential ace. In his eight starts, he has only a 2-5 record with a high 5.51 ERA. Consistency has been his biggest problem this year, which was seen in his last start when he allowed six runs (five earned) in six innings. He will be facing the Tigers in the coming week, a team he has had some success against. He faced them twice last year, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and striking out 17 in 10 innings. However, in his one career start at Comerica Park, he allowed five runs in four innings. He lost that game and had an ERA of 11.25. Regardless, Santana has too much talent to be benched, so start him this week.

Bartolo Colon, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Schedule: 6 games - @DET (3), @NYY (3)

Analysis: While he has not been as dominant as he was in 2005 when he won the Cy Young Award, Colon picked up his fourth win of the season last week to remain undefeated. He now has a 4-0 record with a 3.66 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 32 innings this season. The rotation this week should fall such that Colon has a start against both the Tigers and the Yankees. He has faced neither this week, but last year he lasted just two innings in a start against the Yankees, allowing eight runs (seven earned). For his career he has a 4-3 record with a 5.71 ERA in nine starts at Comerica Park (home of the Tigers). At Yankee Stadium, he has a 2-2 record with a 3.69 ERA in five starts. Colon should be started in both his games this week.

MIDRANGE

Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers

Schedule: 6 games - MIL (3), CHC (3)

Analysis: Lowe is likely getting two starts this week and the Dodgers return home to face two National League Central rivals. Lowe has been off-and-on this year, posting a 4-4 record with a 3.90 ERA. He will be looking for a bit of redemption against the Brewers in his start this week. Earlier this year, he lasted only four innings against them, allowing six runs and five walks. He has yet to face the Cubs this year, although he did go 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA against them last year. His chances should be helped out as well by his return home. In 38 career starts at Dodger Stadium, he has gone 20-13 with a 3.55 ERA. With his home success in mind, Lowe should be started in both games this week.

Dontrelle Willis, Florida Marlins

Schedule: 6 games - PHI (3), NYM (3)

Analysis: Willis (finger) has lost his past two starts, allowing six runs in 13 innings. However, part of that could be chalked up to a split fingernail. He has said it isn't bothering him, but his numbers this season (5-3, 5.14 ERA) are surprising for one of the best early season pitchers (14-2 record with a 3.18 ERA in his career in April). He will likely be getting one start this week, coming at home against the Mets. He has already faced them once at home this year, allowing eight runs (six earned) in five innings. That was in sharp contrast to 2006, when he went 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA in five starts against them. His career numbers at home (31-24, 3.69 ERA) would suggest it will help Willis pitching in Florida this week; however, he is just 2-2 with a 6.46 ERA at Dolphin Stadium this season. Before starting Willis, check his status to see if his split fingernail is still bothering him. If not, Willis' previous success against the Mets means he should be started this week.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox

Schedule: 6 games - OAK (3), TB (3)

Analysis: The White Sox's No. 1 starter will likely be getting one start this week, that coming against the Oakland Athletics. He has already faced them once this season, going seven innings and allowing only three runs. The start will also be at home, where Buehrle has a 1-1 record with a 3.22 ERA this season. For his career, he has gone 54-32 at home with a 3.73 ERA. Buehrle should be a lock to start for you this week.

Scott Olsen, Florida Marlins

Schedule: 6 games - PHI (3), NYM (3)

Analysis: Olsen could be the pitcher getting two starts on the Marlins' staff this week. The first should be against the Philadelphia Phillies, whom he beat in a start earlier this season. In that game, Olsen threw five innings and allowed three runs. He will also be up against the Mets, who hit him well in an earlier start despite ultimately losing the game. Olsen gave up 10 hits and two walks in that start but allowed only two earned runs. While Olsen has been a better pitcher on the road, his ERA is still a decent 4.28 at home for his career, with him posting a 6-8 record. Against the Phillies, Olsen should definitely be started, but against the Mets you might want to consider another pitcher.

Nate Robertson, Detroit Tigers

Schedule: 6 games - LAA (3), CLE (3)

Analysis: The man with the glasses will likely be starting one game for the Tigers next week, against their divisional rival, the Cleveland Indians. Robertson has been solid this year, sporting a 3-3 record with a 3.62 ERA. However, he has lost his last two starts and has failed to get past the fifth inning in either of them. He has yet to face the Indians this season, but at home in Comerica Park, he has a 4.45 ERA with a 2-1 record. He struggled against the Tribe last year, going 1-1 with an 8.64 ERA. He also had only two strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings. For his career, he has a 19-23 record with a 4.32 ERA at Comerica Park. With his recent struggles against both of this week's opponents, it could be worth keeping Robertson on the bench this week.

Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh Pirates

Schedule: 6 games - @STL (3), @CIN (3)

Analysis: Gorzelanny has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates so far this season, going 5-2 with a 2.36 ERA and 34 strikeouts. In the coming week, he will likely be facing the Cincinnati Reds in Pittsburgh for the second time this season. In his earlier start against them, he allowed five runs over six innings while striking out four. The start will also come at home, where Gorzelanny has a career record of 2-4 with a 3.75 ERA. He has lowered his home ERA this season by going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Gorzelanny has been a solid pitcher when throwing at PNC Park and would be worth starting this week.

Tom Glavine, New York Mets

Schedule: 6 games - @ATL (3), @FLA (3)

Analysis: Glavine will likely miss starting a game back at Turner Field next week; however, he will probably be on the mound in Florida to face the Marlins. Glavine has yet to face them this season. For his career, he has a 17-18 record with a 3.79 ERA against them. When pitching at Dolphin Stadium, he has struggled, going 7-13 with a 4.33 ERA. A pattern has been emerging in Glavine's starts this year. Over his last seven starts, he has alternated one start where he allows three-plus runs and one start where he allows just one run. If that holds true, it means he would be set for another three-plus-run start against the Marlins next week. Even without that, his previous struggles at Dolphin Stadium mean you should consider other options out there before starting Glavine.

Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers

Schedule: 6 games - MIL (3), CHC (3)

Analysis: Penny has been dominant over his past three starts, allowing just one earned run in 19 1/3 innings pitched. His best start of the season came during that stretch, when he didn't allow a run in seven innings and struck out 14. For his career, Penny has gone 2-2 with a 2.60 ERA in seven starts against the Cubs. He has also been a better home pitcher than away, going 19-9 with a 3.27 ERA while pitching at Dodger Stadium in his career. This season, he has gone 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA there. With the string of quality starts he has put together, Penny should be started this week.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Schedule: 6 games - @DET (3), @NYY (3)

Analysis: After some early struggles, Weaver seems to have finally righted the ship, allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts. That will be put to the test this week when he faces the Tigers, who knocked him around for seven runs (five earned) in just 1 2/3 innings earlier this season. That was easily Weaver's worst start of the season. This week's game against them will be coming at Comerica Park, where Weaver has yet to throw a game. It will also be only his second start against the Tigers. This season, he has been a far different pitcher when starting away from home, going 2-2 with a 2.55 ERA, compared to a 0-1 record with a 7.04 ERA when starting at Angel Stadium. Weaver's earlier start against the Tigers could be chalked up to some early season struggles, and with those seemingly over, it would be worth starting Weaver this week.

OTHERS FOR CONSIDERATION

Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Schedule: 6 games - @DET (3), @NYY (3)

Analysis: Yet another Angels starting pitcher to consider this week. Escobar has gone 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA this season; however, he is coming off one of his worst starts of the season. Against the Seattle Mariners Tuesday, May 15, he allowed eight runs (six earned) in just 2 1/3 innings. While that was an uncharacteristic start for Escobar, there could be more on the way with him facing the Yankees next week. For his career, Escobar has gone 3-4 in nine starts at Yankee Stadium. He also has a 6.19 ERA there. He will likely have a start in the coming weekend so keep an eye on that to see how he bounces back from his last start. If he puts in a quality start, it could pay off to start him against the Yankees. If he struggles again, he should probably be benched this week.

Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants

Schedule: 6 games - HOU (3), COL (3)

Analysis: The $126 million dollar man is currently sporting a 3-4 record with a 4.29 ERA, which are likely not the returns the Giants had in mind when they signed him. In the coming week, Zito will be getting his first career start against the Astros. It will be coming at AT&T Park, where he has gone 3-3 with a 4.21 ERA in his career. Zito was roughed up in his last start, allowing six runs in six innings and walking three. He also failed to record a strikeout. With his struggles this season, you should consider benching Zito this week.

Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals

Schedule: 6 games - CLE (3), SEA (3)

Analysis: Meche has to be chalked up as one of the early season surprises. In nine starts, Meche has a 3-1 record with a 1.91 ERA and 47 strikeouts. While many considered the Royals to have overpaid for him (and they still likely did), you can't argue with his stats this year. Those numbers will be tested in the coming week, as he will be at home to face the Indians. For his career, he has gone 1-6 with a 5.69 ERA against the Tribe. Even at Kauffman Stadium, he has gone 4-4 with a 4.70 ERA in his career. However, this appears to be a new pitcher this year, and until the Meche of old resurfaces, he should be started.

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians

Schedule: 7 games - SEA (1), @KC (3), @DET (3)

Analysis: Carmona doesn't have a guaranteed spot in the rotation because starter Jake Westbrook isn't due back from the disabled list for a couple of weeks. In the meantime, though, fantasy owners are getting wind of the young right-hander's performance, and they're adding him. He's 5-0 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Thursday he outdueled Twins ace Johan Santana in a complete-game 2-0 victory. He won't draw Seattle, but he has pitched in relief versus Kansas City in the past, allowing three earned runs in 2 2/3 innings. In four games, including a start, he has limited Detroit to three runs in 8 2/3 innings. Carmona has a poor strikeout rate, but fantasy owners have to ride his wave until he gives them reason to do otherwise. Start him.

Mark Hendrickson, Los Angeles Dodgers

Schedule: 6 games - MIL (3), CHC (3)

Analysis: Like Meche, it appears as if things are finally coming together for Hendrickson. He is sporting a 2.61 ERA with a 2-0 record and 29 strikeouts. He hasn't been as good in his last two starts, however, allowing 10 runs (seven earned) in 10 1/3 innings pitched. His start in the coming week will likely be against the Cubs, whom he has yet to face in his career. It will be at home though, where he is 1-3 with a 4.53 ERA. For this week, it would be best to keep Hendrickson on the bench, as his recent struggles could signal he is returning to his old form, the one with the 41-47 career record and a 4.86 career ERA.

Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore Orioles

Schedule: 7 games - TOR (4), OAK (3)

Analysis: Cabrera is slated to start twice this week, with his start against the Blue Jays coming in the Hall of Fame Game. Cabrera had one of his best starts of the season this past week against the Blue Jays, allowing just two earned runs in eight innings. He was given no run support however, and was tagged with the loss. He will be looking for some revenge when he faces them early next week. After his start against the Blue Jays, Cabrera will likely get a start against the Athletics. He has struggled against them during his career, going 0-2 with a 15.00 ERA. Both of his likely starts this week will also be at home, where he has been a better pitcher for his career. In 47 home starts, he has gone 18-19 with a 4.27 ERA. For the season he is sitting at 3-4 with a 4.27 ERA. With the way he dominated the Blue Jays last week, Cabrera would be worth starting against them early in the week. However, he should probably be benched for his start against the Athletics.

Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox

Schedule: 6 games - @NYY (3), @TEX (3)

Analysis: Wakefield had been off to a great start, until he faced the Tigers this week. Prior to that start he had allowed just nine runs in 45 1/3 innings pitched. However, he allowed five runs in seven innings and gave up two home runs, as it appeared his knuckleball was anything but unhittable. His start in the coming week should come against the Texas Rangers, whom he has faced once already this season, holding them to two runs (one earned) in six innings. He also struck out four batters. The start will come at Rangers Ballpark at Arlington, where he has gone 4-11 with a 5.63 ERA. If that hasn't already scared you away, then feel free to start him but it would probably be best if he spent next week on your bench.

Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers

Schedule: 6 games - @LAD (3), @SD (3)

Analysis: Suppan's struggles have coincided with the Brewers' recent losing streak, as he has lost his past two starts. He will have a good chance at fixing that in the coming week, however, as he'll probably be getting two starts this week. The first will come against the Dodgers, who he held to two runs on seven hits over seven innings in a start earlier this season. For his career, he has gone 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Suppan has yet to face the Padres this season, but in his career at PETCO Park, he has gone 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA. Against the Dodgers, Suppan could be started, but he could be benched when he faces the Padres later in the week despite San Diego's poor offense. He may be headed for the expected downturn.

Chad Gaudin, Oakland Athletics

Schedule: 6 games - @CHW (3), @BAL (3)

Analysis: Gaudin has been a solid addition to the back end of the Athletics' rotation, especially with regular starters Rich Harden (shoulder) and Esteban Loaiza (knee, neck) missing time. For the season, he has a 2-1 record with a 2.93 ERA. This week he will probably be facing the White Sox for the second time. In his second start this season, Gaudin went 5 2/3 innings, allowing one run on three hits and striking out six. It will be his first start at U.S. Cellular Field. He has made three appearances there before, allowing one run in 3 1/3 innings pitched. Gaudin would be a decent start this week; however, there are better options you should consider first.

Braden Looper, St. Louis Cardinals

Schedule: PIT (3), WSH (3)

Analysis: Looper has been a surprise in the Cardinals' rotation this year, and he only seems to be getting better. Over his last two starts, Looper has allowed just one run in 13 innings. He will get his start in the coming week against the Pirates, whom he has already faced once this year. In that start, he gave up only two hits in seven innings and struck out three. The start will also be at home, where Looper has a 10-2 record with a 3.07 ERA. With his previous success already this season against the Pirates and his solid home record, it would be worth starting Looper this week.

Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs

Schedule: 6 games - @SD (3), @LAD (3)

Analysis: Marquis has been one of the top starters for the Cubs this season, helping to offset the struggles of staff ace Carlos Zambrano. Prior to his no-decision Monday, May 14, Marquis had won five straight, allowing more than one run just once. For the season he has a 5-1 record with a 2.22 ERA. His start in the coming week will likely be coming against the Dodgers, whom he has pitched well against recently. In 2006, he went 2-1 with a 1.13 ERA against them. For his career, he has a 2-1 record with a 2.20 ERA when facing them. The start will also be made at Dodger Stadium, where he has gone 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts. Marquis would be worth starting this week because of his past success against them.

Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians

Schedule: 7 games - SEA (1), @KC (3), @DET (3)

Analysis: With seven games on tap for next week, Lee will likely only get one start. It will also be just Lee's fourth start of the season. Of those starts, one has been quality, when he went nine innings against the Angels and allowed just one run on three hits. His start this week will be against the Royals, whom he struggled against last year. In three starts, he went just 1-1 with an ERA of 5.09. However, he has pitched well when at Kauffman Stadium, sporting a career record of 4-1 with a 3.78 ERA. With a complete game already to his name this season and past success in Kansas City, it could be worth starting Lee this week.

KEY PLAYERS ON DL

Rich Harden, Oakland Athletics - Out until late May

Jason Schmidt, Los Angeles Dodgers - Out until late May

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox - Out until late May

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers - Out until late May

Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins - Out until mid-June

Pedro Martinez, New York Mets - Out until July

Kenny Rogers, Detroit Tigers - Out until July

Mark Mulder, St. Louis Cardinals - Out until August

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins - Out for season

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Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.