Z - MLB Positional Outlook

Starting Pitchers Outlook

August 3, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Ryan Dodson

STARTING PITCHERS

Table: Do not bench list

Player	Team	Player	Team
Carlos Zambrano	CHC	Aaron Harang	CIN
Johan Santana	MIN	Jeremy Bonderman	DET
Jake Peavy	SD	Josh Beckett	BOS
Erik Bedard	BAL	Yovani Gallardo	MIL
Dan Haren	OAK	Scott Kazmir	TB
C.C. Sabathia	CLE	John Maine	NYM
Brandon Webb	ARI	Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS
Brad Penny	LAD	Chien-Ming Wang	NYY
Cole Hamels	PHI	Tom Gorzelanny	PIT
John Lackey	LAA	Orlando Hernandez	NYM
Kelvim Escobar	LAA	Derek Lowe	LAD
Felix Hernandez	SEA	Tim Lincecum	SF
Roy Oswalt	HOU	Fausto Carmona	CLE
Roy Halladay	TOR	Oliver Perez	NYM
Justin Verlander	DET	Jered Weaver	LAA
John Smoltz	ATL	Ted Lilly	CHC

UPPER ECHELON

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Schedule: 7 games - WSH (4), PIT (3)

Analysis: With the departure of starting pitcher Matt Morris at the trade deadline, it looks as though the Giants have begun their youth movement. At 22, Cain should be a large part of that. On the season he has only a 3-12 record, however, his ERA sits at 4.02, and he has 96 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched. He has been struggling since the All-Star break with three losses, a 6.64 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. However, he has the benefit of facing two of the bottom teams in the league this week. The games will be at home, where he has a career 10-14 record and 3.56 ERA. He has faced neither the Nationals nor the Pirates this year. He has faced the Nationals three times, posting a 4.35 ERA to go along with two losses. He has faced the Pirates just once in his career, lasting only four innings and allowing three runs on seven hits. With his solid home numbers, and two weaker opponents this week, Cain would be a decent start on your fantasy team.

James Shields, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Schedule: 7 games - @DET (4), @TEX (3)

Analysis: Like Cain, Shields has struggled out of the break this year. In four post All-Star break games, he has gone 1-2 with an 8.44 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. His strikeout rate has also dropped as he has just 12 in 20 1/3 innings, compared to 116 in 129 2/3 innings before the break. This week will be Shields' first start at Comerica Park, home of the Tigers. That could hurt Shields as he has made 10 away starts this year, going 4-4 with a 5.16 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 55 strikeouts. Shields still has value this week, however, with him playing a good Tigers team, and starting on the road, his value will be slightly lower than normal.

Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates

Schedule: 6 games - @ARI (3), @SF (3)

Analysis: Snell seems to have forgotten how to pitch in the second half of the season, losing all four of his starts and posting a 7.71 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. That is a significant drop from his 7-5 record and 2.93 ERA prior to the All-Star break. He will be getting one start this week, likely against the Diamondbacks. He has beaten them once already this year, going 5 2/3 innings, although he did allow four runs. He has never made a start at Chase Field in his career, however, he has a career 8-11 road record, along with a 4.52 ERA. He does strike out batters at a higher rate though with 185 strikeouts in 193 innings on the road. With his struggles, it would probably best to see how Snell does in his other start this week before using him next week.

Rich Hill, Chicago Cubs

Schedule: 7 games - @HOU (3), @COL (4)

Analysis: It appears as though Hill has been caught up in the post All-Star-break surge of the Cubs. On the season he has a 6-6 record with a 3.67 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and 118 strikeouts, however, since the Mid-summer Classic he has dropped his ERA to 3.04, while not losing one of his starts. A worrying sign could be the .264 batting average he has allowed against him, or the 1.52 WHIP, however, he is striking out batters at a solid right (22 Ks in 23 2/3 innings pitched) and is not allowing many runs. He has pitched twice in Minute Maid Park, although both of those times it was in relief. He did only allow one hit in 2 1/3 innings pitched. He has yet to play a game at Coors Field. With his post All-Star break form, Hill should seriously be considered for a spot in your rotation in the coming week.

Roger Clemens, New York Yankees

Schedule: 6 games - @TOR (3), @CLE (3)

Analysis: Clemens will be making his start this week north of the border, against the team he pitched for in the late 90s. For the month of July, Clemens made six starts and went 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He also had 21 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings pitched. He has made a total of 55 starts at the Rogers Centre (with most coming when it was the Skydome). In those starts, he has gone 28-13 with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 415 strikeouts in 406 innings pitched. Clemens is not the same pitcher he was in his Toronto days, however, he should still be considered for a start this week against the Jays.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

Schedule: 7 games - WSH (4), PIT (3)

Analysis: Since posting a 7.71 ERA in the month of June, Lincecum has gone 4-0 in six starts and had a 1.62 ERA in July. Since the All-Star break, he has made four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings pitched. He is also holding batters to just a .157 batting average. Those numbers are certainly impressive, especially considering this is his first season in the bigs and his early season slump. He has faced neither the Nationals nor the Pirates in his short career, however, at home he has gone 3-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings pitched. With the hot streak he is on, he should definitely be in your starting lineup for the coming week.

Andrew Miller, Detroit Tigers

Schedule: 7 games - TB (4), OAK (3)

Analysis: Many pundits had Miller pegged for a second-half surge this season, however, he has gone the other way since the All-Star break. Prior to the All-Star break he went 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in six starts. Since the All-Star break he has started four times, going 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA, a 2.03 WHIP, although he does have 22 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings pitched. Another worrying sign would be the .305 batting average he is allowing to opposing batters. Miller should get the start against the Devil Rays this week, which he has yet to face in his career. His away record for this season is 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings pitched. He still has too much potential to sit on the bench, especially with the strikeouts he brings, so keep him in your lineup next week.

MIDRANGE

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles

Schedule: 6 games - SEA (3), BOS (3)

Analysis: Some owners could be expecting the Guthrie who posted a 6.98 ERA last year to show, and although it wasn't that bad, his ERA has dropped from 1.69 in June to 3.93 in July. However, since the Mid-summer Classic, he has gone 3-1 with a 3.57 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP and six strikeouts in four starts, giving you no real reason to worry. He is allowing a .264 batting average to hitters, but as long as he keeps winning games things should be fine. He has only started once in his career against the Mariners, that coming in 2004, when he allowed two earned runs in six innings pitched. At home this season he has gone 2-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 10 starts. He is a better road pitcher, however, even with the start at home he should be used in your lineup.

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves

Schedule: 6 games - @NYM (3), @PHI (3)

Analysis: Hudson is having a resurgent 2007 season, going 11-5 with a 3.09 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and 91 strikeouts. He has been lights out since the All-Star break, going 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and 16 strikeouts in four starts. His K-rate might be a bit low, but the rest of his numbers are quite impressive. His start next week will likely come in Philadelphia, where he already has a win this season. In that start, he went seven innings and allowed just one earned run on two hits. With the form he has shown since the All-Star break, Hudson should be in your starting lineup this week.

Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees

Schedule: 6 games - @TOR (3), @CLE (3)

Analysis: Like Clemens, it appears as if age is finally catching up with Pettitte. In 25 starts this year, he has gone 7-7 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP and 92 strikeouts. However, since the All-Star break he has stepped it up a notch. In five post All-Star break starts, he has gone 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings pitched. He has made 16 appearances (15 starts) at the Rogers Centre in his career, going 10-4 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. In eight starts at Jacobs Field, he has gone 4-3 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. His form has been good since the All-Star break, and the Yankees are continuing to surge, so keep him in the lineup this week.

Javier Vazquez, Chicago White Sox

Schedule: 6 games - CLE (3), SEA (3)

Analysis: Some might have been surprised that Vazquez remained in White Sox uniform at the trade deadline as his numbers this year indicate he could have helped out a contender looking for pitching. On the season he has an 8-6 record with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 132 strikeouts. July was his best month of the season so far, as he went 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings pitched (six starts). His start this week will likely come against Seattle, who he has already lost to this season. In an earlier start against them, he went 7 1/3 innings pitched and allowed four earned runs on six hits. He has been a better pitcher at home this season, going 4-4 with a 3.25 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 72 innings pitched. He should be considered strongly for a spot in your lineup.

Joe Blanton, Oakland Athletics

Schedule: 6 games - @TEX (3), @DET (3)

Analysis: Blanton was another name rumored to be moving at the trade deadline, however, the team didn't get a decent offer for him and he will remain in Oakland for at least the rest of the season. Blanton has been solid in the A's rotation this year, going 8-8 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 98 strikeouts. However, he has been struggling since the All-Star break, posting a 0-3 record with a 6.58 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP and only 13 strikeouts in four starts. Even more disconcerting is the .351 average he is giving up to batters. Perhaps that has more to do with the A's failing to move him than does the offers they received. His start this week should fall against the Tigers at Comerica Park, where he has just one start to his name. In that start, he lasted five innings and allowed five runs on nine hits. On the road this season he has gone 4-3 with a 4.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP and 49 strikeouts. Facing one of the top AL teams this week, it could be best if you leave Blanton on the bench against the Tigers.

Tom Glavine, New York Mets

Schedule: 6 games - ATL (3), FLA (3)

Analysis: If he does not beat the Cubs this coming Sunday, then Glavine's start against the Marlins next week could be the one where he wins game No. 300. This has been another solid campaign for the left-hander as he has posted a 9-6 record with a 4.38 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and 62 strikeouts. He has been decent since the All-Star break, going 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and nine strikeouts in 22 innings pitched (four starts). Helping matters will be that Glavine gets to start at Shea Stadium, where he has gone 35-28 with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and 339 strikeouts in 90 starts. In 45 career starts against the Marlins, he has a 17-18 record with a 3.79 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and 171 strikeouts. With his solid post All-Star break record, Glavine would be a decent start this week.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox

Schedule: 6 games - CLE (3), SEA (3)

Analysis: Buehrle has been remarkably consistent this year, posting ERAs of 2.97, 2.75 and 2.44 in April, June and July respectively. The only blip on the radar came in May, when he had a 0-1 record with a 4.28 ERA. Since the All-Star break, Buehrle has gone 2-2 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP and 15 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings pitched (four starts). Buehrle owners should take note that Buehrle has been allowing opposing batters a .330 average since the All-Star break, but he has been keeping runs from crossing the plate. His start this week will likely fall against the Indians, who he has faced twice already this season. In those starts, he has gone 7 2/3 innings pitched, allowing two runs on 13 hits. Like most of Buehrle's season, he has been good at not allowing runners to score once they reach base. The start will also come at U.S. Cellular Field, where he has gone 4-4 with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 53 strikeouts in 12 starts. With his consistent form, Buehrle should remain in your starting lineup this week.

OTHERS FOR CONSIDERATION

Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins

Schedule: 7 games - CLE (1), @KC (3), @LAA (3)

Analysis: Garza has just five starts this season but is likely in line to get a lot more after posting a 1-2 record with a 1.37 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 24 strikeouts in 26.1 innings in those starts. In three post All-Star break starts Garza has gone 0-2; however, he has a 1.96 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He also has 17 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings pitched. His start this week will likely come against the Royals, who he has faced just once in his career. In that start, he went 7 2/3 innings and allowed just two runs; however, he was tagged with the loss. So far this season, Garza has been dominating away from home. In three road appearances (two starts), he has a 0.64 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 14 innings pitched. With the low ERA and decent K-rate, Garza is worth starting this week.

Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals

Schedule: 6 games - MIN (3), TOR (3)

Analysis: Meche's ERA has slowly been creeping up since April, reaching a mark of 4.89 ERA in July. Since the All-Star break he has gone 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and just 22 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings pitched. In the coming week, Meche will be starting against the Blue Jays. In his career he has made 10 appearances (nine starts) against the Blue Jays. In those starts, he has gone 4-3 with a 5.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings pitched. In 12 starts at home this year, Meche has gone 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings pitched. His numbers aren't great, but he should still be considered for a start this week based on the matchup and where it is taking place.

Kevin Millwood, Texas Rangers

Schedule: 6 games - OAK (3), TB (3)

Analysis: Millwood's ERA might be an unsightly 5.95 this season; however, he does have a 7-9 record and 76 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings pitched. When looking at Millwood, you have to discount his earlier months as he was badly injuries and a slow start. In July, he posted a 3-2 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He also has 24 strikeouts in 35 innings pitched. He will be making his start at home this week with it likely coming against the Athletics. He has already made one start against them this year, going six innings and allowing four runs (three unearned) and three hits. At home this season he has a 6.12 ERA and a 5-3 record in eight starts. While his numbers might not show it, he has been a better pitcher recently and should be considered for a start this week.

Scott Baker, Minnesota Twins

Schedule: 7 games - CLE (1), @KC (3), @LAA (3)

Analysis: Baker has come alive since the All-Star break, going 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in four starts. He also has 18 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings pitched. Baker's start this week will likely come against the Angels, who he has faced once this season. In that start, he allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched and was tagged with the loss. In his career, Baker has started three times at Angel Stadium, going 0-3 with a 7.63 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP and 14 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings pitched. With that kind of success, or lack thereof, Baker could be better off left on your bench this week.

Mike Mussina, New York Yankees

Schedule: 6 games - @TOR (3), @CLE (3)

Analysis: Like Clemens and Pettitte, Mussina is the third in the Yankees elderly triumvirate that is struggling this year. In 18 starts this year, he has posted a 6-7 record with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. In July, Mussina wasn't that great either, posting a 2-2 record with a 5.08 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and 20 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings pitched. However, he does still play for the Yankees and they have been on fire in recent weeks. He has struggled at Jacobs Field in his career, posting a 6.35 ERA and a 3-3 record in nine starts. He also has a 1.39 WHIP and 47 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings pitched at the Jake. Because of that poor track record, you might want to consider keeping Mussina on the bench this week.

Greg Maddux, San Diego Padres

Schedule: 7 games - @STL (4), @CIN (3)

Analysis: The ageless one continues to rack up the numbers even as he moves away from the 40-year mark. This season he has a 7-8 record with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He has been even better since the All-Star break this year, posting a 3.86 ERA, although he has a 0-2 record. Maddux is also not a great strikeout pitcher and has just nine strikeouts in 21 innings. This coming week he will likely be in St. Louis to face the Cardinals. In his career he has made just two starts at the new Busch Stadium. In those two starts, he has an ERA of 4.50 and a 1-1 record. He also has a 1.42 WHIP and just four strikeouts in 12 innings pitched. If you want to boost your WHIP and ERA, consider Maddux, however, be prepared to lose a lot of strikeouts. He should be considered this week based on those facts.

Chris Capuano, Milwaukee Brewers

Schedule: 6 games - @COL (3), @HOU (3)

Analysis: The 3.25 ERA Capuano posted in April is a long way off as the past two months he has an ERA of 6.55 (in June) and 5.45 (in July). He has not been bad since the All-Star break, posting a 4.44 ERA with a 0-1 record and 21 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings pitched. He has faced the Rockies once this year, lasting just three innings while giving up five run on six hits. With the game taking place at Coors Field, you might expect his numbers to be inflated; however, Capuano has pitched well in Colorado. In three career starts at Coors, he has a 2-1 record with a 2.14 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 21 innings. With that track record, Capuano would not be a bad selection to start for you fantasy team next week.

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

Schedule: 7 games - SD (4), LAD (3)

Analysis: Wainwright has come on strong the past two months, posting ERAs of 3.69 and 3.09 in June and July respectively. That has lowered his season ERA to 4.38, which compliments his 10-8 record and 1.51 WHIP. Since the All-Star break, Wainwright has gone 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched (four starts). His start will likely come against the Dodgers this week, who he struggled against earlier this season. In that start, he lasted just 2 2/3 innings, allowing eight runs on seven hits. It was arguably his worst start of the season. That start aside, he has been a decent road pitcher this year. In 10 starts he has posted a 5-2 record with a 3.94 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. With his recent solid form, Wainwright would be a decent start this week.

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays

Schedule: 6 games - NYY (3), @KC (3)

Analysis: McGowan has finally earned a regular turn in the Blue Jays rotation as he has allowed just four runs in his last 20 1/3 innings pitched. On the season he has gone 7-5 with a 4.36 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 73 strikeouts. Since the All-Star break, he has gone 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 16 strikeouts. He is also allowing opposing batters just a .217 average. He has never appeared at Kauffmann Stadium, home of the Royals; however he has gone 3-4 with a 4.91 ERA on the road this year. His high road ERA is something to consider but with his recent form, McGowan should be a decent start this week.

Dontrelle Willis, Florida Marlins

Schedule: 6 games - @PHI (3), @NYM (3)

Analysis: Willis is normally a hot starter; however, this year he posted a 5.35 ERA in April, which should have been a sign of things to come. On the season he has a record of 7-10 to go along with a 4.95 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP and 90 strikeouts. He hasn't gotten much better since the All-Star break either, going 0-3 with a 6.20 ERA, a 2.21 WHIP and only 10 strikeouts. This week he will get the start against the Phillies, who he has faced three times this season. In those three starts, he has gone 2-0 with a 4.82 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP and 20 strikeouts. He has six career starts at Citizens Bank Park, going 3-2 with a 5.91 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and 21 strikeouts. It appears as if Willis is not on his usual dominating form this season, and with his recent struggles, is a candidate to start on the bench this week.

KEY PLAYERS ON DL

Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers - Out until August

A.J. Burnett, Toronto Blue Jays - Out until August

Chris Young, San Diego Padres - Out until August

Pedro Martinez, New York Mets - Out until August

Mark Mulder, St. Louis Cardinals - Out until August

Kenny Rogers, Detroit Tigers - Out indefinitely

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals - Out for season

Jason Schmidt, Los Angeles Dodgers - Out for season

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins - Out for season

Randy Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks - Out for the season

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Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.