Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Salary Cap Leagues: Players to Target

March 15, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

It seems like every year the big-market teams buy all the top free agents, while the small-market teams have to keep pumping out top prospect after top prospect. What would happen if every team was given an equal playing field to pick the players they wanted? Well, if you don't feel like joining a socialist commune, try joining a salary cap league. Rather than having a draft or auction to determine who gets the top players, every player is open to each participant and you are required to construct a team given a salary cap, usually around $30 million or $60 million. The goal is to pick the perfect balance of established stars while peppering your lineup with enough young talent and value-based players that are ready to break out. The real strategy comes in finding those value-based players as they are what your lineup will revolve around. When you are successful, winning is that much more exciting. Just ask anyone who owned Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Francisco Liriano or Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander last season. You might be wondering what type of players you should be looking for. Let's consider the types of players you want on your team and give some examples of players that fit the mold.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

The player who is going to be crucial to your team's success is the high-end, value-based player. You will want to look for a player who broke out last year but is undervalued, or who you feel is poised to break out this year. These are still marquee players but for some reason or another they are not being valued as highly. You may generally want to avoid the big-name players such as New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter or Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard. While these players will no doubt put up great numbers, they likely carry a high cap number. In salary cap leagues, you want solid players at every position, rather than one or two stars and weak players elsewhere. Choosing a player such as Cleveland Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore, who hits home runs and steals bases, could bring you fantasy points similar to a player such as St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols, yet you may get him at a cheaper cost. This is the crucial, and one of the most fun parts of playing, these types of leagues. Rather than having your team essentially set on draft day (waiver acquisitions aside), you can spend as much time tinkering with your roster as you like.

The next type of players to look at would be the inexpensive, value-based players. These are guys who are likely coming off a poor season and have a low salary in your league. Perhaps they were hit by injuries last year and could be available for a lower salary. It could also be a young prospect who is ready to break out or a backup with more value because he's finally getting some playing time. It could be a player who has just moved to a new team and will be hitting in a more offense-friendly environment. Here is where picking your team gets interesting as you will need to research these players extensively.

PLAYERS TO TARGET

Examples of Higher-Priced Bargains

These are the type of players who, while being among the best in their respective leagues, have a value which is lower than one would think. They are either All-Star caliber players coming off a poor year (sometimes due to injury) or players who, for one reason or another, have yet to get the recognition and salary you would assume they'd have. They could be players with undiscovered All-Star, or MVP-type, potential. Either way, these kinds of players will likely form the backbone of your team.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians - He hit .290 with 28 home runs, 76 RBI, 134 runs and 22 stolen bases. At just 24 years of age, he is learning to live up to the expectations of carrying a team and should continue to improve.

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies - He is just entering the prime of his career and should provide you with numbers right across the board. His average, .277, while a bit low, is not enough to worry you too much. With power (27 home runs), runs produced (83 RBI, 127 runs) and stolen bases (36), he will give you a little bit of everything.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs - He is coming off a serious injury and some personal problems last season but should be able to bounce back, especially with more help in the starting lineup. In 2005, he hit .335 with 46 home runs, 107 RBI and 120 runs. Because of the injury problems, his value is likely lowered and he represents good value for a top first baseman.

Raul Ibanez, OF, Seattle Mariners - He had a career year last year, hitting .289 with 33 home runs and 123 RBI. He still doesn't get the recognition you would expect for those numbers, which hurts his salary number but increases his value.

John Smoltz, SP, Atlanta Braves - He continues to play at an elevated level and with a better bullpen this season he should be able to at least reach his 2006 numbers of a 3.49 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and likely what you're most concerned with, 16 wins and 211 strikeouts.

Tom Gordon, CL, Philadelphia Phillies - With 34 saves, a 3.34 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, he brings good numbers and his value is not that high. He was injured last season, which has lowered his value in most leagues. Better starting pitching could lead to more save chances.

J.J. Putz, CL, Seattle Mariners - Putz took over the closer's job early in the season and proceeded to stamp his name on it, with a 2.30 ERA, 36 saves and 104 strikeouts. Putz has the mentality and stuff to improve on his season last year. He should also have a low salary in most leagues, making him a solid pickup.

Takashi Saito, CL, Los Angeles Dodgers - He took over the closer's role last year and put up solid numbers. He had 24 saves and 107 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings pitched. That was in time split between a relief role and the closing role. With a full season as the closer in Los Angeles, he could improve on his 2006 numbers.

Examples of Inexpensive Options

These are generally players who are poised to breakout or suffered an injury last season that hurts their value. They will likely have a low salary for the type of value they could bring your team. A bit riskier than the higher-priced players, they are nonetheless one of the most crucial components of any winning fantasy team.

Gerald Laird, C, Texas Rangers - He split time with catcher Rod Barajas last season, but will have the starting job all to himself this year. With a solid offensive lineup around him, Laird could be a cheap sleeper in your league.

Paul Lo Duca, C, New York Mets - This catcher still plays in one of the best lineups in the National League and that boosts his numbers. He also has no threat to his starting job and has been consistently good in his career.

Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates - He had a breakout year last season (.285 batting average, 32 home runs, 90 RBI) and then found himself traded out of Atlanta. He should be a good complement to Pirates outfielder Jason Bay and is likely a cheaper source of power.

Ryan Shealy, 1B, Kansas City Royals - He was traded out of Colorado as there was no room for him behind Rockies first baseman Todd Helton. His numbers in the minors were impressive and he is poised to break out this year with regular playing time, giving someone inexpensive numbers.

Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - He could be poised for a breakout season. Kendrick struggled in his first stint with the team last year and played in only 72 games. However, he rebounded in his second call-up (.303-4-29) and the team has high expectations for him. His low value should be attractive, as will his young age (23).

Josh Barfield, 2B, Cleveland Indians - He had a solid year with the San Diego Padres (.280-13-58 with 21 steals) before being traded this offseason. He will give the Indians a solid option at second base and should hit in one of the best offenses in the American League.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers - He's attractive because he is young and was ready to break out before getting injured last year. He hit .286 with 14 home runs, 55 RBI, 65 runs and 11 stolen bases in 120 games, so a full season with this offense could be great salary cap value.

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincinnati Reds - He is only 24 years old and could be hitting in front of slugging first baseman Adam Dunn. Last year, he hit .276 with 15 home runs, 72 RBI, 60 runs and six steals in 112 games. He should be able to improve on those numbers and could come at a value price for your team.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas Rangers - Blalock has had a couple of sub-par years but has a new manager who he is more comfortable with. Fully healthy, this could be the year he rebounds with a vengeance, improving on his 16 homers and 89 RBI in 591 while starting at a lower salary.

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies - He is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and with him getting first crack at the starting job he is poised for a breakout season. In the equivalent of a full season in the minors he has hit .286 with 17 home runs with 75 RBI. Playing half of his games at Coors Field also doesn't hurt.

Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks - He is ready to lead the new, young wave of Diamondbacks players and could be one of the top youngsters in the league. He hit .316 with five home runs and 23 RBI in only 59 games last season and should be able to improve on that in his first full season in the majors.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins - He was hit by injuries last season, which kept him from ever getting into a rhythm. He is another one of the top young players the Marlins have and his salary should be low heading into this season. He's a five-tool player that can steal bases and hit for a little power. If he can put it all together, he should give you good value for his salary.

Moises Alou, OF, New York Mets - Alou is making the jump from a weak offense on the San Francisco Giants to the Mets' potent offense. That alone should increase his value, but also the fact he is coming off an injury-plagued season decreases his salary and will increase his value. He still hit .301 with 22 homers and 74 RBI in just 345 at-bats last year.

Corey Patterson, OF, Baltimore Orioles - He played in only 135 games last season, hitting .276 with 16 home runs, 53 RBI, 75 runs scored and 45 stolen bases. He should be able to improve as he is just entering the prime of his career. Given a low salary, he represents good value in the outfield.

Ervin Santana, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Santana was arguably the Angels' most consistent pitcher last year, posting 16-8 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he is young and can get wins on a team with this bullpen.

Anthony Reyes, SP, St. Louis Cardinals - Reyes had a solid playoff run last season, which should only give the 25-year-old, second-year player more confidence heading into this season. With a 5-8 record and a 5.08 ERA, his numbers weren't great, but his salary shouldn't be either, which should make him attractive for your fantasy team. He's expected to be a full-time member of the rotation on a team that typically wins a lot of games. He was at times dominant last year, as he was in the minors.

GETTING THE RIGHT FREE AGENTS

Just like in any other fantasy league, picking up players during the season is crucial to success. There are numerous types of players that you will want to target and in this section we will take a look at those players.

The first type of free-agent player you will want to look at is the player who steps into the starting role due to an injury. If you owned Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee last season, you will know that his injury opened the door for infielder Todd Walker to step into the starting role. If you had Lee on your salary cap team, dropping him and picking up another starting first baseman (such as Walker, who was also eligible at the harder-to-fill second base) could be crucial to your success.

Another type of player to look at would be a utility player who starts out with sporadic playing time but works his way into a starting job. An example of this type last season would have been Colorado Rockies infielder Jamey Carroll. With no clear alternative at the position, Carroll stepped in, hitting .300 with five home runs, 84 runs and 10 steals in 463 at-bats.

Looking at this year, Chicago White Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik is already going to miss much of spring training with a groin injury. This should open the door for outfielder Darin Erstad, as well as outfielders Ryan Sweeney or Brian N. Anderson, who should compete for the job in left while Podsednik is out. Erstad, coming off a season in which he got only 95 at-bats because of an ankle injury. He's expected to start in center bat leadoff for a potent White Sox lineup, so he could be a great value. All these players could represent a good value-based pick.

Other candidates to keep an eye on are players on hot streaks (pick them up when hot, dump them when they are cold) or pitchers who have good matchups. Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Gustavo Chacin might not be a good play every week but when he is up against a team such as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, he should be considered a good play.

Players in Situations to Keep an Eye on

Akinori Otsuka, RP, Texas Rangers - The team signed Eric Gagne to be their closer. Gagne has missed most of the past two seasons and at this point represents a huge injury risk. performed well when closing for the club last season and would be ready to step in if, and when, Gagne goes down.

Kerry Wood, RP, Chicago Cubs - Ryan Dempster currently has the closing job but with Wood moving into the bullpen, Dempster could lose the job with more numbers like last year's (nine losses, 4.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Wood has the power pitches and the mentality to perform well closing games and could find himself closing for the Cubs this season.

Joel Zumaya, RP, Detroit Tigers - No pitcher seemed to throw more 100-mph-plus pitches last season than Zumaya and he has shutdown closer written all over him. Many were calling for him to replace closer Todd Jones last season and that could come to fruition this year with Jones another year older, especially after posting a 3.94 ERA and blowing six saves.

Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals - Gordon is considered by many to be the top prospect in the minor leagues. If he doesn't make the club out of spring training, expect him get a call-up. He hit .325 with 29 homers and 101 RBI last year at Double-A Wichita and may already have little to prove in the minors. As a youngster he could be very cheap.

Ryan Garko, 1B, Cleveland Indians - Garko impressed when he was called up last season, batting .292 with seven homers and 45 RBI in 185 at-bats, but his poor defense makes it unlikely he will get much playing time behind Casey Blake. That should decrease his salary, though. Blake had trouble with injuries last year and the Indians would still like to use Garko's bat somehow. If Garko makes his way back into the everyday lineup, he could serve as a great inexpensive option for points.

Keep an eye on other potential call-ups as well. Players such as New York Yankees starting pitcher Philip Hughes, who is unlikely to make the rotation in spring training, could be an early-season call-up if the backend of the Yankees rotation suffers.

SUMMARY

Much like any fantasy draft, picking your roster is where all the strategy comes into play. Trying to acquire the right mix of young or opportunistic players ready to break out with more established stars is what makes this game fun. Then you just need to follow the guidelines during the season and keep on top of breaking news (which KFFL's Hot off the Wire is a great source for) and you should be well on your way to winning your salary cap league.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.