Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

National League Central Preview

March 21, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Ryan Dodson

CHICAGO CUBS

2006 RECORD: 66-96 (Sixth Place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

After early season injuries knocked the Cubs from any playoff race right off the bat, the team went out and brought in some of the top free-agents to help turn this ship around. Since their playoff loss in 2003, they have lost 10 more games each season than the previous one. This year, however, should be the year they turn it around. Manager Dusty Baker has been replaced by former New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners manager Lou Piniella. While Baker's attitude wasn't the reason for the Cubs losing records, it is hard to see Piniella putting up with those results. He should provide a greater spark to this Cubs team (although whether that will wear thin after a couple months is anyone's guess).

They also went out and made the biggest splash on the free agent market, signing outfielder Alfonso Soriano, second baseman Mark DeRosa, starting pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis and re-signing third baseman Aramis Ramirez. All told, it cost the Cubs more than $300 million in salary. With first baseman Derrek Lee (wrist) returning from injury, this team should contend in what is expected to be a weak National League Central.

POSITIONAL DUEL

Relief pitcher Ryan Dempster should hold the closer's job when the season begins, but his grip on it will be shaky at best. Dempster was the Cubs leader in saves last year with 24, while striking out 67 in 75 innings pitched. However, Dempster blew nine saves and posted an ERA of 4.80. If the door is not open for him to be replaced, it is at least unlocked. Knocking on the door could be starter-turned-reliever Kerry Wood. Wood was at one point thought to be the future ace of the Cubs staff, but injuries have plagued him for most of his career. He will now move into the bullpen. Wood has the power pitches and make-up to dominate at the end of the game and having no career saves, could be closing games for the Cubs sooner than later.

Left fielder Cliff Floyd (Achilles') joined the Cubs from the New York Mets and will be looking to bounce back after injuries hurt him last year. Offseason ankle surgery will have him pushing for a starting job, and at the very least, the career .279 hitter will be the left-handed part of a platoon in left field. He will be battling Cubs prospect Matt Murton for the job. Murton played 144 games for the Cubs last year and hit .297, with 13 home runs and 62 RBI. Murton will likely be the right-handed bat in this platoon, but he could move into a starting role if Floyd is hit by injuries yet again. Another twist to this duel could be if outfield prospect Felix Pie is ready to step up to the big leagues. If so, Pie could step into the role in center field and bump Alfonso Soriano over to left field.

COMING ON STRONG

Starting pitcher Rich Hill is one of the club's top pitching prospects and should slot into the middle of the rotation this year. Before the All-Star break, Hill went 0-4 with a 9.31 ERA. However, after it, he turned it around and posted a 2.93 ERA with a 6-3 record. He also struck out 79 batters in 80 post-All-Star break innings. September was by far his best month, as he went 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA. Because of injury problems to past top prospects Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, there is a chance the Cubs might be more cautious Hill; however, he is still one of the their top prospects and should be even better this year with more experience.

ON THE REBOUND

Finishing the season with just eight home runs and a .286 batting average, Lee suffered the kind of drop-off in numbers that will destroy any fantasy hopes for your team. He suffered a wrist injury in April that knocked him out until the end of June. Even when he did return, it is likely the wrist affected his hitting as he never really looked the same. With a full offseason to rehab, and great protection in the lineup, Lee should be healthy again and could approach his 2005 numbers, when he hit .335 with 46 home runs, 107 RBI, 15 stolen bases and 120 runs.

INJURY REPORT

First baseman Derrek Lee (wrist) suffered an early season wrist injury, which limited him to just 50 games. Even when he was playing, his timing was off and he never looked quite right. Starting pitcher Kerry Wood (shoulder) struggled again with shoulder problems and appeared in only four games. Starting pitcher Mark Prior (shoulder) suffered from shoulder tendonitis for most of the season and appeared in only nine games all season. He was shut down in early August.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) OF Alfonso Soriano

2) 2B Mark DeRosa

3) 1B Derrek Lee

4) 3B Aramis Ramirez

5) C Michael Barrett

6) OF Jacque Jones

7) OF Matt Murton

8) SS Cesar Izturis

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Carlos Zambrano

2) Ted Lilly

3) Rich Hill

4) Jason Marquis

5) Wade Miller

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Bobby Howry, Scott Eyre, Neal Cotts

Setup: Kerry Wood

Closer: Ryan Dempster

CINCINNATI REDS

2006 RECORD: 80-82 (Third place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

The Reds held or were close to the division lead for the first half of the season (up until July 1, 2006), however, they began to tail off during the second half of the season. The team has not improved incredibly, but if they can maintain their first-half pace they could be a challenger this year. However, their rotation is a bit shaky at the back end and they rely almost exclusively on power for run production. They were second in the National League with 217 home runs, while their team batting average was .257 (15th in the National League). Without any impact additions, it will likely be hard for them to contend for the division, but they have enough talent to finish in the top three in the National League Central.

POSITIONAL DUEL

Like the rest of the team, catcher David Ross hits for power but not for average. Last season, in 90 games, he hit .255 with 21 home runs. He also drove in 52 runs. He will be competing with catcher Javier Valentin, who hit .269 with eight home runs and 27 RBI in 92 games. Ross is expected to get most of the playing time heading into spring training, but his low average could hurt his chances at a full-time workload.

Manager Jerry Narron stated during spring training that he doesn't think any of his relievers has the ability to close out games on a regular basis. However, over a 10-to-12 game period, one reliever could run off seven or eight saves in a row (as relief pitcher David Weathers did last year). With the team lacking a dominant closer, it looks like there will be a year-long competition for saves at the backend of the Reds bullpen. Possible closers could be Weathers, Mike Stanton, Bill Bray, Kerry Ligtenberg or Todd Coffey. Of them, Stanton could have the edge because of his experience (1,056.1 innings pitched), however, don't count out Bray as he is only 23 years old and has shown good stuff in his major-league appearances. For fantasy purposes, this is a situation that should be avoided.

COMING ON STRONG

Starting pitcher Homer Bailey was named the organization's 2006 Minor League Player of the Year. At Class A Sarasota last year, Bailey posted a 3.31 ERA in 13 games, striking out 79 in 70 2/3 innings pitched. After being promoted to Double-A Chattanooga, Bailey went 7-1 in 13 starts, dominating pitchers with a 1.59 ERA. With a weak back end to the Reds starting rotation, Bailey, who is expected to start the season at Triple-A Louisville, could be in the rotation by the middle of May.

Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion looks like he could be on the verge of stardom as he had a solid .276 batting average (great for the Reds team) with 15 home runs and 72 RBI. That was in only 117 games and at the just 24 years old, he should only improve.

ON THE REBOUND

Outfielder Adam Dunn struck out 194 times last year, drawing criticism from such players as Philadelphia Phillies Mike Schmidt. Dunn has never had a great eye for the ball but he does hit for power as he had 40 home runs and 92 RBI last year. Aside from the power, however, he doesn't bring much else as his average sank to .234. While he has never been a low-strikeout hitter, he will have to turn that around this season as ever with his power numbers, it is hard to use him with an average that low. He will be kept only in left field this season (no first base), which should help his concentration as he won't have as much to worry about. Also expect his average to rise up to at least his career number (.245) as he looks to rebound at the plate.

INJURY REPORT

Ken Griffey Jr. (hand) suffered a broken hand while playing with his kids in the offseason, however, he is expected to be ready for the start of the season. Relief pitcher “Everyday” Eddie Guardado (elbow) will miss at least half the season due to Tommy John surgery and there is a chance he will not pitch at all this season.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) OF Ryan Freel

2) 2B Brandon Phillips

3) OF Ken Griffey Jr.

4) 3B Edwin Encarnacion

5) OF Adam Dunn

6) 1B Scott Hatteberg

7) C David Ross

8) SS Alex Gonzalez

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Aaron Harang

2) Bronson Arroyo

3) Eric Milton

4) Kyle Lohse

5) Elizardo Ramirez

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Gary Majewski, Rheal Cormier

Setup: Todd Coffey, Bill Bray

Closer: David Weathers, Mike Stanton, Eddie Guardado

HOUSTON ASTROS

2006 RECORD: 82-80 (Second place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

The Astros almost capped a disappointing season with a furious comeback in the final three weeks of the season to capture the division crown. They fell short, however, and then had to watch their division rivals, the Cardinals, win the World Series. This was a difficult offseason for the club as they watched starting pitcher Andy Pettitte return to the New York Yankees, while starting pitcher Roger Clemens continues to leave them in limbo about his status for the 2007 season. They did upgrade their offense with the acquisition of outfielder Carlos Lee (Rangers). They also look to replace Pettitte with Jason Jennings, who was brought in from the Colorado Rockies. The Astros will again have hopes of capturing the division crown, but the window for this team's core (Berkman, Biggio, Oswalt) appears to be closing.

POSITIONAL DUEL

Outfielders Jason Lane and Luke Scott will both enter camp with a shot at the starting right field job. Scott will likely be the one winning the job as he had a better all-around season last year (.336 average, 10 home runs, 37 RBI) despite playing in only 65 games. He is also two years younger. Lane hit just .201 with 15 home runs and 45 RBI in 112 games. In 2005, he had a career-high 26 home runs and 78 RBI in 145, however, he will be hard-pressed to return to those numbers. Expect Scott to get most of the playing time this year, with their ratio of games played last year (Lane 112, Scott 65) reversed.

The final rotation spot will likely depend on what Clemens does. Should he return it will likely fall to Wandy Rodriguez. However, if he doesn't, then it could be Fernando Nieve that grabs the job. Nieve had a 4.20 ERA and 3-3 record last year. He is still young though, and this season could go either way. Pitchers Chris Sampson, Matt Albers and Brian Moehler are also other pitchers who could challenge for the final rotation spot in spring training.

COMING ON STRONG

Starting pitcher Jason Jennings' numbers should improve just by the fact he is out of Coors Field, one of the worst pitcher's parks. Even in Colorado, Jennings had a stellar season, posting a 3.78 ERA and 9-13 record last season. Away from Coors Field last year, his ERA rose to 3.97 and he had a 4-8 record. In each of the last three seasons, he has seen his ERA drop from 5.51 to 5.02 to 3.78. At 28, he is entering the prime of his career and should have his best season yet.

ON THE REBOUND

Closer Brad Lidge appeared to be suffering from a playoff hangover last year, as the usually dominant closer blew six saves and had an ERA of 5.28. He still managed 32 saves but he was by no means as dominant as he had been. At one point during last season, he was replaced by relief pitcher Dan Wheeler as the team's closer. Mentally, he has had a full season and offseason to recover from his poor 2005 playoff performance and should be able to return to the numbers he posted in his 2005 season, when he had 42 saves (four blown), a 2.29 ERA and 103 strikeouts.

A career .270 hitter, third baseman Morgan Ensberg suffered through his worst season with the club. He hit just .235 with a 23 home runs and 58 RBI. He also managed only 67 runs. Ensberg is a better hitter than that, so expect his numbers to increase, although maybe not as high as his 2005 numbers (.283 average, 36 home runs, 101 RBI). If he can't rebound this season, Ensberg could also lose out on playing time to infielder Mike Lamb.

INJURY REPORT

Brandon Backe (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery last season and is not expected to return this season.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) 2B Craig Biggio

2) OF Chris Burke

3) 1B Lance Berkman

4) OF Carlos Lee

5) 3B Morgan Ensberg

6) OF Luke Scott

7) SS Adam Everett

8) C Brad Ausmus

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Roy Oswalt

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Chad Qualls, Trever Miller, Matt Albers

Setup: Dan Wheeler

Closer: Brad Lidge

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

2006 RECORD: 75-87 (Fourth place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

The Brewers are a young team that many feel could be a sleeper this year, especially in the weak National League Central. They only had two winning months last year (April and October) but injuries played a large part in that. Starting second baseman and top prospect Rickie Weeks (wrist) could finally live up to his potential this year if he can avoid injuries. First baseman Prince Fielder should continue to evolve into a dominant power hitter. While starting pitcher Ben Sheets is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the league. If their young guys can play up to their potential, this team could be one to look out for, not just next season, but for the rest of the decade.

POSITIONAL DUEL

The major positional duel on the Brewers will likely come in left field, where outfielders Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench are expected to platoon. Mench suffered in his move to the National League last season, hitting just .248 with one home run and 18 RBI in 126 at-bats. Mench does have the age advantage however, as he is 29 compared to Jenkins' 32. Jenkins posted a .270 average with 17 home runs and 70 RBI last season. The other open position is on the other side of the diamond, where outfielder Corey Hart is expected to hold down the job. He hit .283 with nine home runs and 33 RBI in 87 games last year. He is only 24 however, and the team could give him a long leash in right field. If either of these positions doesn't work out, the Brewers have outfielders Gabe Gross (acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays prior to last season), Laynce Nix (acquired from the Texas Rangers last season) or Brady Clark, who could all step in. This situation is one to watch during spring training to see who steps up and seizes a job.

COMING ON STRONG

Outfielder Corey Hart showed up ready to perform in spring training and posted the top 60-yard dash on the team. He has the right body size (6'6, 214 lbs) to be a dominant hitter and showed that towards the end of last year. His best month was September, where he hit .287 with five home runs, 20 RBI and 16 runs. At 24 years of age, his best years are still to come and he could have a big year this season if he can continue his September pace.

ON THE REBOUND

Starting pitcher Ben Sheets suffered a shoulder injury in early May last year and did not return until the end of July. Then in August he was put on a limited pitch count due to a chest injury. His injuries combined to hold him to just 106 innings pitched. Sheet is just 28 years old and entering the prime of his career. He also threw for 200-plus innings in three straight years from 2002-2004 (216.2, 220.2, 237.0). He still posted an ERA of 3.82 last season despite missing time and should be right back to it this year, provided he stays healthy.

After signing a three-year, $6.5 million deal in the offseason, relief pitcher Derrick Turnbow proceeded to give away the closer's job posting a 6.87 ERA and blowing eight saves. By the end of September, manager Ned Yost had given up on using Turnbow in the final inning. However, Turnbow has had an offseason to recover from his 2006 struggles and he could be ready to return to his 2005 form, when he saved 39 games (four blown saves) and had an ERA of just 1.74. With closer Francisco Cordero coming over from the Rangers in a deadline deal, he assumed the closer's role for the remainder of the year. However, with the Rangers last year he blew nine saves and had an ERA of 4.81. If he reverts to that form, Turnbow could get his job back in 2007.

INJURY REPORT

Ben Sheets (shoulder, chest) was limited to just 106 innings last year as he missed two and a half months with a shoulder injury. In his previous three seasons, Sheets had thrown 200-plus innings so he should be back eating up innings this year. Corey Koskie (concussion) suffered a concussion last year and has not yet been cleared to resume baseball activities. It could be that Koskie has played his last game with the Brewers. Second baseman Rickie Weeks (wrist) missed the last two month's of last season with a wrist injury but should be ready to assume his mantle in 2007 as the team's second baseman of the future. Shortstop J.J. Hardy (ankle) missed most of last season with an ankle injury and was still suffering pain from it in December 2006; however, he is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Outfielder Gabe Gross (hamstring) suffered a mild strain of his hamstring Feb. 28, 2007, although it has not been determined how long he will miss.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) 2B Rickie Weeks

2) OF Corey Hart

3) 1B Prince Fielder

4) OF Bill Hall

5) OF Geoff Jenkins

6) C Johnny Estrada

7) 3B Corey Koskie

8) SS J.J. Hardy

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Ben Sheets

2) Chris Capuano

3) Jeff Suppan

4) Dave Bush

5) Claudio Vargas

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Matt Wise, Jose Capellan, Brian Shouse

Setup: Derrick Turnbow

Closer: Francisco Cordero

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2006 RECORD: 67-95 (Fifth place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

Like the Brewers, the Pirates are a team stocked with young players that could be dominant near the end of this decade. Last year they posted a second-half record just above .500 (37-35) and moved ahead of the Cubs and out of the basement of the division. With them falling out the playoff race early, they were able to get their young pitchers (Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Ian Snell) some playing time that will be valuable when the team is ready to make the jump to the next level. This year could be tough on the Pirates as they won't have the Cubs to compete against for last place like they did last year. But give it a few years and the Pirates could be on top of the division while the Cubs are saddled with the huge contracts they gave out this offseason.

POSITIONAL DUEL

The biggest spot uncertainty for the Pirates comes at second base where the team could use either 2006 National League batting champion Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo or backup infielder Jose Bautista. Sanchez is expected to cover third base, with Bautista backing him up, however, if Castillo, who hit .253 with 14 home runs and 65 RBI, doesn't perform at second base, Sanchez could move to that position. The team will likely go with Sanchez and Castillo out of spring training but keep an eye to see how Castillo performs, as he could be out of a job if he can't concentrate on his job (a problem for him in the past).

COMING ON STRONG

Outfielder Jason Bay has increased his home run totals from 26 to 32 to 35 in each of the last three seasons, while his RBI totals have jumped from 82 to 101 to 109. He is also a career .292 hitter and at 28, is just entering the prime of his career. His previous numbers were also done without any real protection in the lineup and the Pirates corrected that this offseason by acquiring left-handed first baseman Adam LaRoche (Braves) from the Atlanta Braves. With some real protection in the lineup, Bay's numbers should only increase as he makes the jump to superstardom.

ON THE REBOUND

Outfielder Chris Duffy looked set to take over the starting center field job last year before a horrible start to the season saw him demoted to Triple-A. He hit just .197 with only four RBI in 76 April at-bats. He also struck out 20 times. He finished off the season strong however, as he hit .336 with two home runs, six RBI and 12 stolen bases in September. With another year of experience, Duffy should be able to get his head around playing the majors this year and be able to avoid a start similar to last year.

INJURY REPORT

Xavier Nady (intestine) was hospitalized early in camp with an infection in his intestine. He should be ready for the season.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) OF Chris Duffy

2) SS Jack Wilson

3) 3B Freddy Sanchez

4) OF Jason Bay

5) 1B Adam LaRoche

6) OF Xavier Nady

7) 2B Jose Castillo

8) C Ronny Paulino

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Zach Duke

2) Ian Snell

3) Tom Gorzelanny

4) Paul Maholm

5) Tony Armas Jr.

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: John Grabow, Matt Capps

Setup: Damaso Marte

Closer: Salomon Torres

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

2006 RECORD: 83-78 (First place in division, Won the World Series)

OVERVIEW

The St. Louis Cardinals had one of the biggest regular season to postseason turnarounds last year, as they nearly blew what appeared to be a certain division win and then won the World Series. The team only eliminated division rival, the Houston Astros, on the final day of the season. They then went on to beat the Detroit Tigers in five games to win their 10th World Series title. This offseason saw them lose three pitchers from their rotation (Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis) but still possess a dangerous offense, with first baseman Albert Pujols leading the way, as well as perennial Cy Young candidate starting pitcher Chris Carpenter. Regardless of who they lost, the Cardinals are still expected to contend for the division crown this year, and in a weak division, they could very well capture it.

POSITIONAL DUEL

Jason Isringhausen (hip) might not be ready to begin the 2007 season and the team is unsure who they will use as closer until he is ready. Relief pitchers Russ Springer, Randy Flores, Tyler Johnson or Brad Thompson have all been mentioned but the team could go with relief pitcher Braden Looper should he not make it into the starting rotation.

The final rotation spots are also up in the air as postseason hero Adam Wainwright will be one of four pitchers likely competing for the two spots. Starting pitcher Ryan Franklin has the most experience starting as he has a career 41-57 record and 4.35 ERA, but Braden Looper and Brad Thompson will both be given a look at starting. Starting pitcher Mark Mulder (shoulder) also re-signed with the club and he could move into the rotation when he returns from his shoulder injury, which might not be until the middle of the season.

Shortstop David Eckstein (side) injured the same side that kept him out a month last season. However, the injury isn't nearly severe as last season's bout. He should be ready for the start of the season.

COMING ON STRONG

Starting pitcher Anthony Reyes didn't show much until the postseason began but he showed up for Game 1 of the World Series, holding the Detroit Tigers to just two runs on four hits over eight innings. He only posted a 5-8 record with a 5.06 ERA last season but that was also his first extended time in the majors. He will likely be the Cardinals third starter this year and if the team wants to contend, they will look for the World Series-version of Reyes to show up and not the Reyes that struggled at times last year.

ON THE REBOUND

Catcher Yadier Molina is known more for his defense than his offense, but last season, it was hard for even the most ardent Molina fans to live with his offensive output. In 129 games with the Cardinals, Molina hit just .216 with six home runs and 49 RBI. He turned it around in the playoffs however, as he hit .358 with two home runs and eight RBI in 16 games. With another year under his belt, the 24-year-old Molina will look to continue his hot streak into the 2008 season.

INJURY REPORT

Closer Jason Isringhausen (hip) underwent season-ending hip surgery in September of last year, although he is expected to be ready for the start of the season. Starting pitcher Mark Mulder (rotator cuff) underwent season-ending rotator cuff surgery last season and is expected to miss at least the first month of the regular season. Starting pitcher Kip Wells (foot) suffered a foot injury with the Texas Rangers last season but had the pins removed and is set for spring training. Outfielder Jim Edmonds (toe) underwent surgery on his left foot to correct a toe problem and he is expected to be back in the middle of spring training. He could still start the season on the disabled list. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion (wrist) will begin the season on the disabled list after offseason wrist surgery. Reliever Josh Kinney (elbow) will miss the entire 2007 season after Tommy John surgery.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) SS David Eckstein

2) OF Chris Duncan

3) 1B Albert Pujols

4) 3B Scott Rolen

5) OF Jim Edmonds

6) OF Juan Encarnacion

7) 2B Adam Kennedy

8) C Yadier Molina

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Jason Isringhausen

2) Kip Wells

3) Anthony Reyes

4) Adam Wainwright

5) Braden Looper

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Ricardo Rincon

Setup: Tyler Johnson

Closer: Jason Isringhausen

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.