Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

American League East Preview

March 23, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

2006 RECORD: 70-92 (Fourth place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

The Orioles have finished in fourth place in the AL East in eight of the past nine seasons. That can happen when you play in a division with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. It's also the result of a second-to-last-place finish in the AL in team ERA (5.35). Baltimore combined that with only 164 homers on offense, which was good for 11th in the league and by far the worst in the AL East. They were, in short, never a threat. That isn't what shortstop Miguel Tejada said that he expected when he joined the team before the 2004 season. In the past two offseasons, he has complained about management's seeming lack of desire to put together a winning team, and he has hinted that he'd like to be traded if that's the way it was going to be.

This offseason, Tejada says that he has changed his tune. He wants to win - in Baltimore. Considering that the Orioles once again made a somewhat underwhelming splash in the free-agent market that might be tough. The club bolstered its bullpen, but did little to help the rotation. With the loss of starter Kris Benson (shoulder) for perhaps the entire season that could be a glaring oversight. They also missed out on the premier sluggers on the market, settling instead for first baseman/outfielder Aubrey Huff. Unless something drastic changes, Tejada and the rest of the Orioles should expect more of the same.

POSITIONAL DUEL

The team has no glaring positional battles heading into the spring. Starting pitcher Hayden Penn had the inside edge on the fifth spot in the rotation after the discovery of Benson's torn rotator cuff. Penn, a former top prospect for the club, has shown little in his 58 innings in the majors, posting a 9.31 ERA in two seasons. The need to add a veteran was evident, so into the fray came starting pitcher Steve Trachsel. Penn sprained his ankle in late February, prompting manager Sam Perlozzo to say that the injury would affect the youngster's chance at the No. 5 job. Trachsel is a slow-working, soft-tossing righty with a career 4.28 ERA. He went 15-8 with a 4.97 ERA last year with the New York Mets.

COMING ON STRONG

Last year the Orioles took a chance that an unproven youngster, Chris Ray, could fill the role of closer after the team lost B.J. Ryan on the free-agent market. Smart move. Ray, 25, had blown his four save opportunities in 2005, despite his 2.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 43 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings. However, last year the right-hander saved 33 of 38 chances while putting up a 2.73 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 51 strikeouts in 66 innings. If Ray remains an established closer, and the Orioles' staff can be at all adequate, the new-look bullpen could get Ray the ball with a few more opportunities.

ON THE REBOUND

Heading into last season, third baseman Melvin Mora was lobbying for a contract extension. He received a new deal in May, which was interesting timing, because not after, the 5-foot-11, 200-pounder's season went downhill. In the first two months of 2006, Mora was hitting .307 with eight bombs and 28 RBI. He hit just .257 with eight home runs the rest of the season, finishing with a .274 batting average, 16 homers and 83 RBI. His average was his worst mark since 2002, while his home run and RBI totals hadn't been that poor since 2003. Mora took a shot at the team near the end of last season, but with the deal he signed, he has some ground to make up as well.

INJURY REPORT

Benson is the most immediate concern. At first he was almost certain to elect for surgery to mend the torn rotator cuff, which would've all but guaranteed his absence for the 2007 season. He has since changed his mind, instead opting for a four-week rehab program that would strengthen the shoulder and allow him to pitch at some point this year.

Second baseman Brian Roberts, with his all-out style, has been a bit of an injury risk in the past couple of seasons. He played in 143 games in 2005 thanks to a couple of minor injuries during the course of the season, followed by a dislocated elbow in September. The resulting ligament and tendon damage required surgery. He was ready for the start of the season, but he missed nearly four weeks with a groin injury in 2006, playing in 138 games. He finished the season fine but isn't a sure thing for a full schedule.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) 2B Brian Roberts

2) 3B Melvin Mora

3) OF Nick Markakis

4) SS Miguel Tejada

5) 1B Aubrey Huff

6) C Ramon Hernandez

7) DH Jay Gibbons

8) OF Kevin Millar

9) OF Corey Patterson

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Erik Bedard

2) Daniel Cabrera

3) Jaret Wright

4) Adam Loewen

5) Steve Trachsel

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker

Setup: Danys Baez

Closer: Chris Ray

BOSTON RED SOX

2006 RECORD: 86-76 (Third place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

After a World Series victory in 2004 and a loss in the ALDS in 2005, the Red Sox failed to make the postseason last year. In fact, on the last day of the season they fell to third place (and outside the top two in the division) for the first time since 1997. The pitching, for the most part, was solid; the team ranked third in the AL in ERA, at 3.75. After finishing first in the league in runs in the previous three years (and second in 2002), though, Boston finished sixth in runs in 2006. That may have proved to the club that they were missing outfielder Johnny Damon more than they anticipated.

In another attempt to net a viable leadoff hitter, the Red Sox signed free-agent shortstop Julio Lugo. Last year's acquisition, outfielder Coco Crisp, missed some time with an injury; he was ultimately a disappointment. To bolster the rotation even more, the club shelled out the dough for the rights to negotiate with Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Boston paid up, adding the gyro-ball tossing righty to a strong rotation. The Red Sox believe that they have reloaded enough to return to the playoffs and make another run at the Series.

POSITIONAL DUEL

Julian Tavarez will be keeping the last spot in the rotation warm, but it's only a matter of time before Jon Lester comes up from the minors and takes it. With Papelbon going back to closer, Tavarez should get two or three starts before Lester comes up.

COMING ON STRONG

The closest player that qualifies for this heading is first baseman Kevin Youkilis, who had a career year in 2006, his first as a regular. He batted .279 with 13 homers, 72 RBI and 100 runs scored. Youk accomplished the latter total thanks in part to a lengthy stint as Boston's leadoff hitter. Crisp's injury necessitated Youkilis' move to the top spot in the order, and he was a reasonable choice given his ability to get on base. The 28-year-old has a lifetime .379 OBP, including .381 last year, when he drew 91 walks. Youk remained at leadoff for a while after Crisp returned too. Batting behind Lugo and in front of the big boppers, a repeat is possible, and progress is likely.

ON THE REBOUND

The Red Sox were exciting about the prospects of starting pitcher Josh Beckett, the 2003 World Series MVP with the Florida Marlins. Despite injury issues throughout the 26-year-old's career, he had exhibited tantalizing talent. American League hitters feasted on his offerings last year, though, and Beckett posted a 5.01 ERA. Most of that was the result of his 36 home runs allowed, after he had never yielded more than 16 in any previous season. Beckett did make it through a full season, reaching the 30-start plateau (33 total) for the first time, and he still won 16 games. With a season to adjust, Beckett is looking to bounce back and prove that he was worth the prospects his organization gave away to get him.

INJURY REPORT

Last year starting pitcher Jon Lester was diagnosed with lymphoma, and naturally he sat out the rest of the season. The promising young left-hander remained positive throughout treatment. He finished chemotherapy in mid-December and came to spring training in good shape. He will begin the season at Triple-A

Outfielder J.D. Drew, signed this offseason, has a well-deserved reputation as an injury-prone player. Various ailments last year limited him to 146 games (the most in his career), and a lingering shoulder injury is a major concern for Boston. Drew must remain relatively healthy, or he risks losing some of his salary until the year 2030.

Last April Crisp fractured a finger in his left hand, and kidney stones delayed his return. He came back in late May, but he wasn't the player that the Red Sox had hoped for. The finger became an issue again in September, so the club shut him down. Crisp had surgery that month to stabilize the finger, and he's supposed to be completely healed.

Reliever Mike Timlin (oblique) will begin the season on the disabled list with a strained oblique.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) SS Julio Lugo

2) OF Coco Crisp

3) DH David Ortiz

4) OF Manny Ramirez

5) OF J.D. Drew

6) 3B Mike Lowell

7) C Jason Varitek

8) 1B Kevin Youkilis

9) 2B Dustin Pedroia

PROJECTED ROTATION

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Manny Delcarmen

Setup: Brendan Donnelly

Closer: Jon Papelbon

NEW YORK YANKEES

2006 RECORD: 97-65 (First place in division, Eliminated in ALDS)

OVERVIEW

A season that ends without a World Series championship is considered a failure for the Bronx Bombers. Failure has been the result for six consecutive seasons, so perhaps it's time to reevaluate things on a deeper level. With a star-studded lineup, offense was once again not the problem. Pitching, yet again, was, namely a poor rotation low-lighted by the abominable performance turned in by renegade starter Randy Johnson. With a 4.41 mark, New York tied for sixth in the AL in ERA; the club's starters' combined for a 4.54 ERA, also sixth. Not bad, but not up to Yankees standards. With an early exit at the hands of the eventual AL pennant winners, the upstart Detroit Tigers, the Empire had to head back to the drawing board.

Johnson is gone, sent packing in a deal to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Gone too is outfielder Sheffield, traded to the AL champs. In an attempt to upgrade the rotation, the Yankees signed their own Japanese import, starter Kei Igawa, and brought back a former fan favorite, starter Andy Pettitte. Pettitte suffered through a dismal 2006, though. The club also hopes starting pitcher Carl Pavano will actually begin to earn some of the fat contract that he signed before last season. If not, highly coveted prospect Philip Hughes is waiting in the wings. Did the Yankees get any better? Perhaps, although sustained health might be the biggest obstacle to another postseason run.

POSITIONAL DUEL

The Yankees go into the season with very few question marks from this perspective. The situation to watch, however, is how Pavano handles himself this spring. He's penciled in as the No. 5 starter and, barring an implosion, should retain the job. However, after injuries forced him to miss all of last season and half of the previous one, Pavano has had to answer questions about his heart. Teammates have whispered that he may have to prove his worth to the club, and in the clubhouse. Pavano was an uninspiring 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA in 17 starts in 2005. Hughes is a phenom in just about every sense, with 2.13 ERA and a strikeout rate approaching 11 in his minor league career. The organization has handled Hughes with baby gloves, but if Pavano doesn't make his case and Hughes impresses, you could see a new starter at the backend for the Yanks.

COMING ON STRONG

With a lineup like the Yankees', it can be easy to success, but second baseman Robinson Cano, 24, made an impact in a heavy-hitting lineup by hitting .342 with 15 home runs and 78 RBI in just 482 at-bats. He played in only 122 games thanks to a hamstring problem, or he might've won a batting title or hit the 100-RBI plateau. With outfielder Hideki Matsui missing most of the season with a broken wrist, Cano moved up in the lineup and provided much of the punch that the team might've missed. Entering his third full season, Cano, last year's Silver Slugger Award winner at second base, isn't even close to his prime, so a bright future appears in store.

ON THE REBOUND

As third baseman Alex Rodriguez has found, with fans like this team's, it can be difficult to please the fans as well. A-Rod, by most standards, didn't have a bad season at all. He hit .290 with 35 bombs, 121 RBI and 15 steals. However, he went through a couple of lengthy slumps. In June he batted only .213 with three homers. He also committed 24 errors, doubling his total from 2005, and embarrassed himself immensely in the process. He refused to acknowledge his mental lapses, and they carried into the playoffs. His poor play, including a 1-for-14 showing in the ALDS, prompted manager Joe Torre to drop him to eighth in the batting order in the final game of that series. A-Rod claims that he's ready to remain a Yankee for life. Fans aren't likely to believe it, though. The club signed first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense at first, and more than likely to aid Rodriguez. Only a return to 2005 levels (.321 average, 48 homers, 21 stolen bases) is likely to appease the Yankees faithful - and maybe the front office, too.

INJURY REPORT

Matsui broke his wrist in May, and he didn't return until late September. He was hardly able to contribute, though. With an offseason to recover, Matsui is at full strength.

Pavano battled posterior, back, elbow and other arm issues throughout 2006. He was deemed healthy and ready to go in February. In early spring workouts the right-hander knocked down a line drive with his left foot, though, and suffered a bone bruise. While the injury isn't serious, it might have some Yankees backers shaking their heads and wondering what's in store.

Cano tore his hamstring in June, but after missing six weeks or so, he is fully recovered.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) OF Johnny Damon

2) SS Derek Jeter

3) OF Bobby Abreu

4) DH Jason Giambi

5) 3B Alex Rodriguez

6) OF Hideki Matsui

7) 2B Robinson Cano

8) C Jorge Posada

9) 1B Doug Mientkiewicz

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Chien-Ming Wang

2) Mike Mussina

3) Andy Pettitte

4) Kei Igawa

5) Carl Pavano

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Scott Proctor

Setup: Kyle Farnsworth

Closer: Mariano Rivera

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

2006 RECORD: 61-101 (Fifth place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

Since their inception, in 1998, the Tampa Devil Rays have finished in the basement every season, save for one, and it wasn't last year. (That'd be 2004.) In 2006 they finished last in the AL in runs and batting average; they also finished 12th in ERA. That'll do it. The D-Rays had a couple of positives, including a breakthrough season for starter Scott Kazmir, the healthy return of outfielder Rocco Baldelli and the unsurprisingly dazzling play of outfielder Carl Crawford. The club also discovered it had some diamonds in the rough, like first baseman Ty Wigginton.

In 2007, outfielder Delmon Young will join Baldelli and Crawford to form the top young outfield in the game. Kazmir should return completely health after a shoulder issue ended his 2006 season a bit prematurely. The club also added third baseman Akinori Iwamura, a Japanese import that slugged 106 home runs in the past three seasons. The Devil Rays hope that the 28-year-old's power translates to the majors. Regardless, pitching beyond Kazmir remains a huge concern, including the bullpen. On top of it, it's becoming increasingly doubtful that the team can keep its talent-oozing outfield intact. Will the Devil Rays ever make progress as an organization? How they handle this year could go a long way toward determining that.

POSITIONAL DUEL

The Devil Rays have a host of people competing for the fifth spot in the rotation. At the end of 2007, that spot, and perhaps the one in front of it, might very likely have resembled a revolving door. Starting pitchers Jason Hammel, Brian Stokes, J.P. Howell, Jeff Niemann, Mitch Talbot, Edwin Jackson and Jae Kuk Ryu have all been mentioned as candidates for that spot. The "winner" will earn the rights out of the gate, but it's probably only temporary.

The intriguing battle lies at the other end of the staff: the bullpen. Relievers Seth McClung and Dan Miceli are the frontrunners for the closing job, and McClung is the odds-on favorite. He finished the season in that role, notching six saves in seven opportunities from August on. He also had a 4.43 ERA, which is actually amazing considering the 1.93 WHIP during that stretch. McClung is one of the team's former prospects, and he can throw smoke in a reliever's role. The problem is that he throws it all over the place. Reliever Dan Miceli is in the running; he saved four of his seven chances last year, although he was only available for 32 innings. Reliever Chad Orvella, another top prospect with heat, could also become a factor, but he is greener than McClung.

COMING ON STRONG

The easy choice is Young. With only 126 major league at-bats, it might be a little early to deem him as such; Young is still eligible for Rookie of the Year, an award for which he's certainly a favorite. In those at-bats he batted .317 with three homers, 10 RBI, 16 runs and two steals. It's no secret that he's lauded as the top prospect in the game. After a minor league career in which he also batted .317, with 59 home runs and 75 steals in 353 games, it's understandable. The bat-throwing incident is undoubtedly a strike against him, and it's disconcerting for an organization with multiple offenders in its system. Young doesn't have that sort of rep, though, so he should be able to make good. Tampa has a couple of established youngsters in the outfield, and Young would complete the trio. He could easily begin that journey this season.

ON THE REBOUND

Second baseman Jorge Cantu had a breakout season in 2005, batting .286 with 28 round-trippers and 117 RBI. He displayed power many thought was still in development and seemed to be a player around which Tampa could build the heart of the order. Then 2006 happened. In April Cantu broke a bone in his foot that forced him to sit until early June. The foot continued to bother him for much of the season, and after a solid start he hit just .230 with eight homers in 235 post-All-Star-break at-bats. Cantu finished at .249, with 14 home runs and 62 RBI in 413 at-bats. He reported in shape and believes that he can actually improve on his 2005 campaign, let alone bounce back from his 2006 one.

INJURY REPORT

While Cantu appears ready to rock, so does Kazmir. That's a relief to the few D-Rays fans there are, because when the team's now and future ace experienced shoulder tightness last August, panic set in. A commodity the franchise can't afford to lose, Kazmir shut it down not long after. The southpaw was in the middle of his best season yet, ending up with a 10-8 record, 3.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 163 strikeouts in 144 2/3 innings. Kazmir is still a little wild occasionally, but he's special, and he's healthy.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) OF Rocco Baldelli

2) OF Carl Crawford

3) OF Delmon Young

4) DH Jonny Gomes

5) 2B Jorge Cantu

6) 1B Ty Wigginton

7) 3B Akinori Iwamura

8) C Dioner Navarro

9) SS Ben Zobrist

PROJECTED ROTATION

5) Jason Hammel/Brian Stokes

BULLPEN

Middle Relief: Shawn Camp

Setup: Dan Miceli

Closer: Seth McClung

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2006 RECORD: 87-75 (Second place in division, Non-playoff team)

OVERVIEW

On the final day of the 2006 season, Toronto eked out a 7-5 over the New York Yankees and slip into second place in the division. It was the first time the team had finished that high since 1993, which incidentally was the year the Blue Jays had won their second of back-to-back World Series titles. Starting pitcher Roy Halladay exceeded 30 starts for the first time since 2003, and he turned in a performance that in many years might've earned him the AL's Cy Young Award. Free-agent signee B.J. Ryan proved to be worth every penny of his deal to serve as the team's closer. Outfielder Vernon Wells also turned in an outstanding year that netted him a hefty new deal. Toronto felt they had established the pieces, but they came up a little bit short.

Entering 2007, the club seems to have done little to put it over the top. Toronto added a couple of veteran starters in John Thomson and Tomo Ohka, but they aren't likely impact performers. They also added shortstop Royce Clayton, 37, who has seen his best days come and go. With catcher Bengie Molina gone, Gregg Zaun will likely be the everyday backstop. To contend, they'll need starting pitcher A.J. Burnett to make good on his fat deal from last offseason. With promising outfielder Adam Lind waiting in the wings, the offense could get another jolt, too. Even if those things happen, the Blue Jays might find themselves once again looking up at the superpowers of the division.

POSITIONAL DUEL

Outfielder Reed Johnson currently has a pretty strong grasp on the starting job in left field, and he's become a serviceable catalyst at the top of the lineup. Last year he hit .319 with 12 homers and 86 runs in 134 games. He also made a lot of progress against right-handers, hitting .317 with nine dingers against them in 297 at-bats; Johnson is a career .278 hitter against them. However, Lind, a player with pure talent, should make it difficult for Toronto to keep him at Triple-A Syracuse. Lind has steadily torn through the minors since becoming a pro in 2004. Last year with the Jays, he batted .367 with two homers and eight RBI in 60 at-bats. The 23-year-old is likely to begin the season at Syracuse, but it's possible that he makes Toronto reconsider this spring. If not, expect Lind to get the call sooner rather than later.

COMING ON STRONG

Third baseman Troy Glaus quietly had a good season in 2006. He only hit .252, but that should improve this year with the addition of designated hitter Frank Thomas to the middle of the lineup and improved seasoning in outfielder Alex Rios. Glaus hit 38 homers, drove in 104 RBI and scored 105 runs. These numbers were the most since 2001. He has also played in an average of 151 games per season the last two years after losing two years to a shoulder injury. Glaus had 11 fewer strikeouts in 2006 and gained shortstop eligibility in some fantasy leagues. He could approach 40 homers and 115 RBI in 2007.

ON THE REBOUND

Burnett (elbow) made only 21 starts in 2006 after signing a huge four-year deal in the offseason. However, he was solid when he was on the mound. He was 10-8 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP with 118 strikeouts in 135 2/3 innings. Burnett is a prime undervalued player on a lot of owners' draft boards, and if he's healthy, he can be a top-10 starter easily. He struck out 7.83 batters per nine innings last season. With a year in a new league under his belt, Burnett should improve on this. He has a career 3.77 ERA, and his 39 walks put him on pace for 60 on the season. This was down from 79 a year ago. Look out for Burnett this season.

INJURY REPORT

As mentioned, Burnett (elbow) made only 21 starts last season. According to sources, ace Roy Halladay's strenuous work ethic is rubbing off on Burnett. Burnett hasn't had the slightest bit of elbow pain in the offseason.

Outfielder Alex Rios was an absolute stud in the first half of last season. However, a staph infection ruined his year. He hit .330 with 15 homers, 53 RBI, 46 runs and nine steals in the first half and hit just .261 with two homers the rest of the way. He has been limited early in spring training due to a shoulder injury.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) OF Reed Johnson

2) 1B Lyle Overbay

3) OF Vernon Wells

4) DH Frank Thomas

5) 3B Troy Glaus

6) OF Alex Rios

7) C Gregg Zaun

8) 2B Aaron Hill

9) SS Royce Clayton

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Roy Halladay