Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Strategy: 5x5

March 15, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Joshua Ellis and Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Steve Ungrey

The 5x5 league is currently one of the most commonly used formats in fantasy baseball. For the most part 4x4 leagues ruled fantasy baseball years ago, but the difference between a 4x4 league and a 5x5 league is the addition of total runs to the offensive categories and WHIP to the pitching categories. All of the aspects of a 5x5 fantasy league are equally weighted, so it is important to draft with that in mind. In a 5x5 league your team will be measured by how well they do in five offensive categories (batting average, runs scored, RBI, home runs and stolen bases) and five pitching categories (wins, saves, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts) over the span of a week in head-to-head leagues or year in rotisserie leagues.

In a head-to-head league, you will usually face one person in the league at one time (some leagues are different - others may use two matchups a week, etc.). At the end of the regular season the top teams will make the playoffs and play each other in more head-to-head games to determine a league champion.

In a 5x5 rotisserie league, the focus of this article, your stats accumulate throughout the entire season. Each category is calculated separate from the others and weighted equally. If you are in a league with 12 people, you will all be ranked from one, being the worst team in that category, to 12, the team with the best stats. Your rankings for all 10 categories will add up together for a total score and the team with the highest point total at the end of the season, all of their category ranks added up, will win the league. Typically there are no playoffs.

The two categories that make up a 5x5 league as opposed to a 4x4 league are total runs and WHIP. Total runs are just that, the amount of runs a positional player scores during the duration of a season. The types of players whose values benefit from this category are leadoff men or top-of-the-lineup guys in a batting order. In order to score a lot of runs, a player must get on base often, get a lot of at-bats and have good hitters behind him in the order to knock him in. You may have a No. 8 hitter who gets on base at a .375 clip and a leadoff batter who gets on base at .333 but usually the leadoff batter will benefit by scoring more runs because he will bat more often and the players in the second, third and fourth spots in the lineup will be the teams' better hitters and more capable to knock the leadoff batter in.

To calculate WHIP, just add the number of walks and hits a pitcher surrenders and divide that by the amount of innings pitched. The lower the WHIP, the better the pitcher is at disallowing base runners. Players whose values will benefit from the WHIP category are typically pitchers that have good control and allow balls to be put in play. Look for a guy with a low walk ratio or batting average against and he will excel in the WHIP category.

It is important that you, as a fantasy baseball player, prepare for your 5x5 draft thoroughly. Since all of the categories are weighted equally, it is easy for a person that is unprepared for a draft to forget about one of the aspects of the 5x5 league and become very weak in that area. Good research will allow you to have the most balanced team that will produce at a high level in all of the categories.

5x5 HITTING CATEGORIES

Batting average: The total batting average for your entire team will be calculated to determine your batting average for a 5x5 league. It is important to draft players with a high and consistent batting average in order to help your team's overall average. The more a player bats, the more his specific average will be reflected in your team average. A leadoff hitter that bats fives times per game and hits .300 may be more useful than a power hitter who is walked 15 percent of the time and bats .310 because he will have batted fewer times than the leadoff batter and he will make up less of your teams total at-bats. It is difficult to make up ground during the season in this category because you will already have so many at-bats that getting one player may not have a big enough effect. Players that accumulate high stat totals with a high average in a large number of at-bats, such as St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols (.331 BA, 49 HR, 137 RBI, 119 runs, seven SB in 535 at-bats), have great value. Such players go in the first couple of rounds of any draft. Players like NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez (.344 BA, six HR, 85 RBI, 85 runs, three SB), third baseman for the Pittsburgh Pirates, have less impact in other areas, so their value isn't nearly as great. Of the players that qualified for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances for every team game played), 66 hit .290 or better. Average is a key component, but a player that helps in more than average is more useful.

Runs: The runs scored category is simply adding all the runs that your starters have scored during the season. The players that flourish in this category are guys at the top of batting orders, like leadoff men, because they get on base for the power hitters on the team to hit in. Runs aren't hard to find on the waiver wire, so it's not necessarily wise to draft just for runs. Every year more runs are scored than are driven in, thanks to errors and other situations in which a run wasn't the direct result of a hit. Players that score a lot of runs should contribute in other categories to be truly valuable, like Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley (.309 BA, 32 HR, 102 RBI, 131 runs, 15 SB). Last year 98 players scored 80 runs or more.

RBI: The RBI category is the total runs batted in for your team's starting players added together to reach a total. The best players to have for this category are power hitters, usually the No. 3, No. 4 and No. 5 batters in a given lineup. Those players are ideal because they can knock in the No. 1 and No. 2 hitters who usually get on base more than anyone else on the team. Pujols is an excellent example. Last year 83 players drove in 80 runs or more, so value RBI more than runs when drafting.

Home runs: The home run category is the total home runs for your team added together to reach a total. It is difficult to obtain a home run hitter that also hits for a high average but a home run hitter typically does well in the runs scored and RBI categories. If you can find a good home run hitter with a high average, like Pujols, that is as good as gold. Players like Cincinnati Reds outfielder Adam Dunn (.234 BA, 40 HR, 92 RBI, 99 runs, seven SB) can slug a lot of home runs, but they can also severely hurt your average. That's why these players typically fall to the end at the first third of the draft. Last year 91 players hit 20 home runs or more, so it can become an overrated statistic in the later rounds.

Stolen bases: The stolen base category adds together all the stolen bases your team gets to create a total. You are not penalized for unsuccessful stolen bases in traditional formats, although some leagues are beginning to use a net steals category. In this case, you would subtract the total times your players were caught stealing from your total stolen bases. Leadoff hitters are typically good at stealing bases and they usually also excel in scoring runs. The best of the best players can excel in all the other categories and also steal bases, like Chicago Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano (.277 BA, 46 HR, 95 RBI, 119 runs, 41 SB). Remember that while so many players hit 20 homers last year, only 35 stole 20 bases or more. Diverse players like Soriano are of great value, and finding stolen bases later in the draft is difficult.

5x5 PITCHING CATEGORIES

Wins: The wins category adds together all the wins that your pitchers receive while you had them in your lineup. Starting pitchers are the best at receiving wins as opposed to relief pitchers. It is ideal to draft pitchers on good teams because they will have the best opportunity to get wins for your fantasy team. A pitcher that has a 4.00 ERA on the Washington Nationals is not as valuable as a pitcher with a 4.00 ERA on the New York Yankees because the Yankees will win more games than the Nationals will this season. It's not recommended to draft based solely on the wins a player typically gets, because many factors can cause a pitcher to lose a win he was likely to get. Houston Astros starter Roy Oswalt won 20 games in both 2004 and 2005, but he won 15 last year. Don't bank on wins. Pitchers on teams with good bullpens are good candidates for wins. Last year 43 pitchers won 13 games or more, and the list of them is likely to fluctuate from year to year.

Saves: The saves category is all the saves that your pitchers have received while in your lineup. Closers are typically the only players that will receive a save. Typically there will be very few potential closers available after the draft so it is important to draft at least two, and perhaps three or four. Although many closers have good ERAs, WHIPs and strikeout totals, keep in mind that they don't pitch as many innings so their stats will count less than a starters' because of sheer sample size. You should try to nab a dependable closer, generally not long after you've secured a dependable starter, in the first third of your draft. Last year 33 players saved 10 games or more, and 19 saved 30 or more. When you think about it, that's not a lot of saves to go around. Drafting New York Mets closer Billy Wagner (40 saves in 2006) in the fifth round or so gives you a stable foundation. Remember that saves often end up coming from a number of unexpected sources, so using high picks on closers is risky, and that carries throughout the draft. It wouldn't be wise to spend more than a late-round pick on whichever Cincinnati Reds reliever, say Mike Stanton, enters the season as the closer, because there's a good possibility that he won't remain in that role all season.

ERA: The ERA category is your team's total ERA over the innings they have pitched. Since there is likely a maximum amount of innings your team can pitch per season (say, 1,250 or 1,400), it can be hard to make up ground in ERA because a solid nine-inning start makes up such a small sample size of the entire season, especially late in the season. Elite starting pitchers with low ERAs are the most valuable, because low ERAs can often correlate to success in other categories. Elite starters usually reach at least 200 innings, so they lay a solid foundation for your team's ERA. Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Johan Santana has posted an ERA below 3.00 in each of the past three seasons, which is partially why he's usually the first pitcher drafted.

WHIP: The WHIP category is the total of your team's total WHIP for the entire season. A pitcher can have a good ERA and a bad WHIP or vice versa. A pitcher that will excel in the WHIP category is typically one with good control and does not walk batters very often. A solid WHIP means that a pitcher puts himself in situations to give up fewer runs. Santana perrennially is amongst the league leaders (for qualifying pitchers) in this category, yet another reason he's a top pitcher.

Strikeouts: The strikeout category is the total amount of strikeouts that your team totals for the season. Since there is a limit on the number of innings you can have for a season, think of this category as Ks per nine innings. A pitcher that has 170 innings pitched for a season and 170 strikeouts is more valuable than a pitcher with 220 innings pitched and 170 strikeouts because he is using his innings better than the other pitcher. Starting pitchers generally have strikeout rates that are lower than relievers. San Diego Padres starter Jake Peavy led qualifying pitchers with a 9.56 K/9 last year. A top closer like the Minnesota Twins' Joe Nathan, who posted a 12.51 K/9, will improve your team's strikeout rate.

A FEW POINTS OF 5x5 STRATEGY

Keep a good balance

Since each category is equally weighted in a 5x5 league, make sure you have all the areas covered. If you focus too much on one area the others will be lacking and there will be no shot to win the league. A good balance means you are near the top of the league in almost every category. This is the biggest reason that diverse players like Pujols and Utley are so valuable.

Manage your pitchers

Since there is a maximum to how many innings you may have, you don't have to start every pitcher every game. For your fringe starters, pick the favorable matchups so that you spend your innings in the most effective way possible. You shouldn't remove Santana from your lineup. It might make sense to remove New York Yankees starter Carl Pavano when he faces the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, however. The odds might be against Pavano producing a beneficial start in that situation. If you have more than enough pitchers to meet your innings maximum, sitting Pavano there is probably a smart move.

Get a solid middle reliever and do not waste a draft pick on him

A solid middle reliever with a high K/9 ratio is a nice addition to any fantasy pitching staff. You can keep them active all year long because they may only pitch about 70 innings per season. They can add a few strikeouts per night to your total and slightly lower your WHIP and ERA. The best part is, they are typically easy to find and not many people utilize this strategy, so you can pick one up without wasting a draft selection. Last season Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Jonathan Broxton (four wins, three saves, 2.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 97 Ks in 76 1/3 innings) was a good option in this regard.

Work the waiver wire

Although it is difficult to make up ground in categories such as batting average and WHIP, you can pick up some guys to help with home runs and stolen bases and they could make the difference for you. Teams are always bringing up top prospects to get a taste of MLB experience and some really catch fire and are great additions to a fantasy team. Ask yourself "Is my team better off with this player than another player?" and if they fill your needs, you better make the free-agent pickup. Take a chance on other players if you have expendable players on your roster as well. When the Pittsburgh Pirates called up outfielder Chris Duffy in August last year, he stole 23 bases in the final two months of the season. If a player gets off to a hot streak like that and he can help you, try to grab him.

Some players' values vary in the first and second half of the season

Certain players excel more in either the first or the second half of the season. Look at a player's career splits and determine if you can get more value for them at midseason than what they are projected to accomplish in the second half of the year. These are generally players that, while perhaps good, don't have the track record or pedigree to sustain the success. Colorado Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe batted .310 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI before the All-Star break. If you dealt him, you didn't have to absorb the .268 average, seven home runs and 35 RBI that Hawpe posted after the break. Texas Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira hit .275 with nine home runs and 49 RBI in the first half. He was a great candidate to trade for. In the second half he batted .291 with 24 home runs and 61 RBI.

Anyone can become a great 5x5 fantasy player: It all depends on how dedicated you are to building the perfect team. The perfect team has great balance between all ten categories within the 5x5 rules; the perfect team has a manager that utilizes the proper strategy towards getting the most out of their maximum innings and the perfect team has a manager that is dedicated towards making his or her team better throughout the season by staying active and jumping on hot free agents. Teams that win 5x5 fantasy leagues aren't always the ones with the best players, but the ones with the most educated managers who make all the right moves.