Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Top Prospects Overview

February 16, 2007 @ 14:26:55

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by KFFL Staff

One of the biggest advantages that you can have going into the draft is knowing which prospects will make an impact. The players we'll go over here are some of the most talented in the minors and in most cases, the most likely to make an impact in the upcoming season.

Homer Bailey, Starting Pitcher, Cincinnati Reds

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: N/A

Analysis: Scouts believe that few hurlers in the minors can match Bailey's arsenal of pitches. His fastball hums in the low-to-mid 90s on the radar gun and can approach 100 mph. He can also throw variations of a plus curveball to boggle hitters, and he has an improved changeup. He's competitive, has a flawless motion and he unquestionably profiles as a No. 1 starter. The organization has babied him, only allowing him to work six innings 11 times last season. In roughly half of a season at Double-A Chattanooga, he went 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 68 innings. His sheer ability will force the Reds to give him a look this year, and he could make the rotation out of spring training. He's worth a late-round selection in mixed leagues if he gains the inside track for a spot on the opening day roster. Don't hesitate to pluck him from the free-agent list. It's hard to envision the Reds keeping him in the minors for very long. If he somehow is not a full-time member of the rotation this year, he most certainly would be in 2008.

Projected arrival: Early 2007

Daric Barton, First Baseman, Oakland Athletics

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: Dan Johnson (controlled through 2010)

Analysis: Barton broke his elbow in a game with Triple-A Sacramento last year, but before that the 21-year-old was considered the top prospect in the organization. He played in the Dominican Winter League this year to regain his form and although he hit well, he hasn't really gotten his power stroke back yet. Barton is considered the club's best pure power-hitting prospect, with excellent plate discipline. There's some question about whether he'll continue to develop his power, especially at the major league level, though. Barton has only 32 home runs in 1,139 minor league at-bats. He needs to log more time at first base as well. Johnson has largely been a disappointment, though, so the club should be willing to give him shot at some point this season. Fantasy owners could watch for Barton to be available in fantasy leagues, but he's not likely worth the add once he joins the A's unless he's on an absolute tear before his call-up.

Projected arrival: September call-up

Josh Fields, Third Baseman, Chicago White Sox

MLB Experience: 20 at-bats

Player in his spot: Joe Crede (signed through 2007)

Analysis: Fields collected three hits during his cup-of-coffee debut in 2006, but he batted .305 with 19 homers, 70 RBI, 85 runs and 28 stolen bases with Triple-A Charlotte before that stint. He's an exceptional athlete, but he is sometimes too aggressive at the plate, making him prone to strikeouts. He may not project to hit for a high average in the majors. The club believes that he has 25-plus homer potential, though. Chicago re-signed Crede to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, but Crede doesn't expect to get a long-term contract after this season. That would open the door for Fields in 2008. In the Venezuelan Winter League, Fields played some left field, and with outfielder Scott Podsednik dealing with a groin injury, the club will give him a look at that position in spring training. Unless Fields wows the White Sox in camp, he's not worth a draft pick but once a call-up comes, he could be worth stashing on the bench.

Projected arrival: Early 2007

Ryan Garko, First Baseman, Cleveland Indians

MLB Experience: 186 at-bats

Player in his spot: Casey Blake (signed through 2007)

Analysis: Garko is no longer considered a rookie, but he's certainly rough around the edges. There's little question that Garko can hit - he has a career .293 average in the minors. At Triple-A Buffalo in 2005, he belted 19 long balls in 452 at-bats and last year, he stroked 15 homers in 364 at-bats. In 185 at-bats with the Indians in 2006, Garko hit .292 with seven home runs and 45 RBI. The problem is finding him a spot. He didn't fit the bill as a catcher, and committed six errors in 45 games at first base last year. He's suited for designated hitter, but Travis Hafner won't be vacating that spot anytime soon. That makes Garko a reserve entering spring training, behind Blake. The Indians may play Garko whenever Blake gets time in the outfield, and Blake had trouble staying on the field last year. Cleveland should eventually find a way to get him in the lineup. He's not worth a draft choice, but fantasy owners would be wise to grab him, at least as a backup, if he begins to play every day.

Projected arrival: Opening Day backup

Matt Garza, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins

MLB Experience: 50 innings

Player in his spot: None

Analysis: Garza in one-plus seasons in the minors has a 2.56 ERA with 243 strikeouts in 211 1/3 innings, and last year he was widely considered the most dominant pitcher on any level besides the big stage. Garza dazzled at times during a near two-month stretch in the majors, but he struggled to post a 3-6 record with a 5.76 ERA and only 38 strikeouts in 50 innings. Last season was the former Fresno State standout's first full one as a pro though, and he reportedly learned to stop relying on his two power pitches and became a more complete hurler during that span. He has a smooth motion and handles himself well, but he could stand to gain some bulk to maintain his strength and stamina. With starting pitcher Francisco Liriano out for the season with an elbow injury and starter Brad Radke retired, the Twins would need one heck of an excuse to keep him out of the rotation to begin 2007. Once he is confident enough to attack hitters at the big-league level, his strikeout rate should translate better. Fantasy owners might want to take a stab at him in the final couple of rounds in their drafts.

Projected arrival: Early 2007

Alex Gordon, Third Baseman, Kansas City Royals

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: Mark Teahen (controlled through 2010)

Analysis: Gordon was Baseball America's College Player of the Year and Minor League Player of the Year in consecutive seasons. Needless to say, many believe in his potential. He has topflight bat speed, can hit with power to all fields and is patient at the plate. He isn't exceptionally fast, but his smarts allow him to be a solid base stealer. Last season, at Double-A Wichita, Gordon batted .325 with 29 homers, 101 RBI and 22 steals. He is occasionally inconsistent with his swing, attempting to lift the ball too much. The Royals expect him to have an impact at some point this season, and there's a chance that he makes the opening day roster. For that to happen, though, third baseman Mark Teahen, coming off a solid season, would need to struggle, or Kansas City would need their unsettled outfield situation to drive them to shift Teahen to right field. Teahen has also had some minor injury problems in his two years with Kansas City, most notably missing the end of the season due to a shoulder injury that required surgery. Fantasy owners can't contain their excitement and are taking him in the final third of some drafts, but that's likely premature. If he does make the squad, a late-round pick would suffice. Don't hesitate to acquire him as a free agent in-season, however, and expect him to be the man entering next season, if not sooner.

Projected arrival: Mid 2007

Luke Hochevar, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: N/A

Analysis: The Los Angeles Dodgers weren't able to sign Hochevar after drafting him 40th overall in 2005, but the Royals sealed the deal after drafting him No. 1 overall last year. The club also gave him a guaranteed major league deal for the first time since doing the same for Bo Jackson 20 years ago. That shows what they think of this 23-year-old, who features a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a ridiculous curveball that breaks late in the zone. The knock is that his changeup and his command of his fastball both need work. The University of Tennessee product has only pitched 15 1/3 innings of minor league ball in the Royals organization, allowing two earned runs and fanning 16. He also pitched briefly in the Arizona Fall League. Not wanting to take any chances with him, the team shut him down after he suffered a strained shoulder. Kansas City is expected to start Hochevar at Double-A Wichita, but a big-league debut is certainly not out of the question, especially given perpetuating weakness of the Royals' rotation. Keeper leaguers with 40-man rosters should look to spend a late pick on him, but otherwise he should go undrafted. He could be a decent waiver-wire pickup this year, but he's more likely a wait-and-see candidate.

Projected arrival: Late 2007

Philip Hughes, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: Carl Pavano (signed through 2008)

Analysis: The Yankees have been ultra-careful with and rejected all offers for their prized possession. The organization has limited his innings in his first two-plus years as a pro, but they stretched him out a bit last year. In 237 1/3 career innings in the minors, Hughes has compiled a 2.13 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP and 269 strikeouts. He has all of the characteristics scouts look for in an ace, including the array of pitches, command and feel for the game. He also continues to improve. His low-to-mid-90s fastball and power curve mean that his strikeout rate shouldn't diminish much when he reaches the majors. His changeup could use refinement, though, and the 20-year-old must prove that he can hold up for a full season. The Yankees have invited him to spring training as a non-roster invitee, but they haven't ruled him out for the opening day rotation. Pavano has durability issues, but he's not the only Yankees starter with health concerns. It should only be a matter of time before New York welcomes him to The Show. In deep keeper leagues, he's likely unavailable but he's realistically not worth drafting in mixed leagues unless he lights it up in the spring and makes the team. Jump on him when he's called up.

Projected arrival: Early-to-mid 2007

Chris Iannetta, Catcher, Colorado Rockies

MLB Experience: 77 at-bats

Player in his spot: Javy Lopez (minor league contract)

Analysis: Iannetta has been known for his stellar defense, but the Rockies also loved the University of North Carolina product because he could hit. Last year, his bat caught up to his glove. He batted .336 with 14 homers 48 RBI in 307 at-bats split between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Colorado Springs. He then posted a .260 average in 77 at-bats with the Rockies last year. Iannetta was supposed to compete for the starting job in spring training, but Colorado didn't want to pass up the opportunity to sign a motivated Javy Lopez to vie for the spot as well. Manager Clint Hurdle has said that he won't carry more than two catchers on the roster, though, and Lopez may have to win the starting job to remain with the club. Catcher Yorvit Torrealba, who suffered through shoulder problems last year that netted him two stays on the disabled list, will also compete. Iannetta, who turns 24 in April, has the opportunity to seize the day in spring training, but if he doesn't, it's likely not long before he gets a call-up. Rockies catchers have been a disappointing lot in recent seasons, and with so much uncertainty, Iannetta doesn't warrant a selection. Keep him on your watch list, though.

Projected arrival: Early 2007

Adam Lind, Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays

MLB Experience: 60 at-bats

Player in his spot: Reed Johnson (controlled through 2008)

Analysis: The Blue Jays' top prospect has been the MVP of his team in each of his three pro seasons, even though he only spent a full year with one team once, in 2005. The left-handed batter swings with a smooth stroke that gives him great gap-to-gap power, which has translated into a ton of extra-base hits. Scouts expect him to develop more home run power as he matures. That's tantalizing considering that he hit .330 with 24 home runs and 89 RBI in 457 at-bats with Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Syracuse last year. Lind, 23, then batted .367 with two long balls in 60 at-bats with the Blue Jays in 2006. Baseball America notes that his second homer was a ninth-inning two-run bomb to center field. He smoked a 98-mph fastball from New York Yankees reliever Kyle Farnsworth and clinched second place for Toronto in the AL East. With Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Reed Johnson, the team is set in the outfield entering 2007. In all likelihood, Lind will begin the year at Syracuse, but Toronto will probably find it hard to keep him there. Don't look to draft him in mixed leagues, but he should be a nice free-agent add if you have the room. He should be an everyday player in 2008.

Projected arrival: Mid 2007

James Loney, First Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Experience: 102 at-bats

Player in his spot: Nomar Garciaparra (signed through 2008)

Analysis: Loney has been a very good minor leaguer, winning the overall minor league batting title last year with a .380 average at Triple-A Las Vegas. He also hit 33 doubles, drove in 67 and swiped nine bags in just 366 at-bats. The club knows that Loney has improved a lot in the past year-plus, but the problem is the one area in which he hasn't seemed to make any progress: power-hitting. Despite the high numbers last year, Loney belted only eight homers, plus another four in 102 at-bats with the Dodgers. He did hit .284 with Los Angeles, and he drove in 18, but nine of his RBI came in one game in September. He shows signs and for a guy who turns 23 this year, the cause isn't lost. This shortcoming factored into the club's decision to re-sign Garciaparra, though. Nomar has earned his injury-prone rep (Loney filled in for him on a couple of occasions last year), and Loney could eventually switch to the outfield. The bottom line either way is that he doesn't have a place right now. Don't waste a draft pick, but you may need to add him to your watch list should a full-time gig open up.

Projected arrival: Opening Day backup

Lastings Milledge, Outfielder, New York Mets

MLB Experience: 166 at-bats

Player in his spot: Shawn Green (signed through 2007)

Analysis: Not long ago, 2007 appeared to be the year that the Mets would hand Milledge, an athletic and gifted player, a full-time gig in the outfield. The club traded for Green at the deadline last year, but the team would let injury-maligned outfielder Cliff Floyd walk. Mets general manager Omar Minaya knows that the Mets are a contender, though. He doesn't appear to have any desire to trust one of his outfield spots to a brash guy who turns 22 this year. New York signed 40-year-old outfielder Moises Alou this offseason, so they have no open spots. Milledge has been the subject of numerous trade rumors over the past year and a half, and he could be bait for more pitching at this point. Milledge hit .241 with four home runs, 22 RBI and one steal in 166 at-bats with the Mets last year. In the minors, he has hit .303 with 30 home runs and 73 steals in 1,100 at-bats. As long as the Mets hold onto him, he'll likely return to Triple-A Norfolk after spring training. Alou has averaged 111 games over the past two seasons, so playing time could quickly open up. For now, the still-raw Milledge is insurance. Fantasy owners should ignore him, unless a Met gets injured in spring training or Milledge ends up with another team.

Projected arrival: Mid 2007

Mike Pelfrey, Starting Pitcher, New York Mets

MLB Experience: 21 1/3 innings

Player in his spot: N/A

Analysis: This 23-year-old phenom was an outstanding college pitcher at Wichita State University, with an ERA of 2.18 in three seasons. In his first professional season spanning three levels of minor leagues, Pelfrey recorded a 2.43 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 96 1/3 innings. Scouts are in love with his nasty two-seam fastball, renowned not for its speed, which sits in the low-to-mid-90s, but its movement, because it naturally sinks and shows late life. His four-seamer is straight heat, and he has a good changeup to complement the two. Pelfrey doesn't have a consistent breaking pitch, though, and he occasionally struggles with location. That showed in his 21 1/3 innings in the majors last year, when he posted a WHIP of 1.73 and fanned only 13. Pelfrey was on the fast track, which is good because barring a disaster, he'll make the Mets' opening day rotation. With better command and more confidence, his strikeout rate should sit somewhere between his 10.2 K/9 in the minors and the 5.5 mark he posted with the Mets. He didn't dazzle fantasy owners last year, so he should be only on the radar of keeper leaguers with 40-man rosters at the draft.

Projected arrival: Opening Day starter

Felix Pie, Center Fielder, Chicago Cubs

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: Jacque Jones (signed through 2008)

Analysis: Pie is an incredible athlete, perhaps the best in the minors. A scouting report likens his tools to New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran's. He has a quick bat, and he can reach pitches outside the zone, but his problem is a tendency to swing at too many pitches like that. A major criticism is that Pie doesn't always demonstrate an innate understanding of the game. He's incredibly fast but in the past two years, he has stolen just 30 bases and been caught 20 times. At Triple-A Iowa last year, he hit just .248 with seven home runs in the first three months of the season. Pie regrouped to bat .322 with eight dingers over the final two months, though, and he has shown that kind of ability to adjust at every level. It's probably a good thing that the Cubs haven't rushed him, but they must be anxious to promote him. Despite the presence in the outfield of free-agent signees Alfonso Soriano and Cliff Floyd, in addition to Matt Murton and Jones, Pie should make his debut later this season. When Pie, 22, is ready to assume the position every day, Soriano can move to left, and the club will likely look to trade one of the other high-priced veteran outfielders. Keeper leaguers with 40-man rosters can draft him, but otherwise don't bother.

Projected arrival: Late 2007

Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Colorado Rockies

MLB Experience: 96 at-bats

Player in his spot: None

Analysis: Tulowitzki can hit with power, with scouts projecting him to hit 25-30 homers per year, but patience has been a problem for him. That was before 2006, when he spent most of the season as the leadoff hitter for Double-A Tulsa. That spot in the lineup forced him to work the count. He hit .291 with 13 home runs. Tulowitzki learned to be selective, a trait that, when paired with his quick bat and ability to hit to hit to all fields, could make him a dangerous big-league hitter. The seventh overall selection in 2005 batted .240 with only one dinger in 96 at-bats after making the jump to the Rockies from Tulsa, but the club sent him to the Arizona Fall League for some fine-tuning. Colorado expects its top prospect to win the starting shortstop job in spring training and play roughly five days a week. If he does he'll be learning on the job, so he has questionable value even as a late-round flier pick. However, if he can continue to develop at the rate that he has in his short pro career, he could warrant a free-agent move by the summer.

Projected arrival: Opening Day starter

Justin Upton, Center Fielder, Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: Eric Byrnes (controlled through 2007)

Analysis: The 2005 No. 1 overall pick had a decent season in his first year of professional baseball. He hit .263 with 12 homers, 66 RBI, 71 runs and 15 steals in 438 at-bats in A-ball. Upton, a former shortstop, has all the tools to be an electric player in a couple of seasons. He was invited to spring training for the second straight year and has really impressed the team with how he has handled himself in pro ball. He is expected to begin the season at Double-A in 2007. If he continues progressing, he should be a September call-up late in the year. With Byrnes expected to walk as a free agent after this season, Upton could play left field in 2008 or center fielder Chris B. Young could move to pave the way for Upton in center.

Projected arrival: September call-up

Brandon Wood, Shortstop, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

MLB Experience: None

Player in his spot: Orlando Cabrera (signed through 2008)

Analysis: The 22-year-old Wood has shown astronomical power in the last two seasons in the minors. He hit .321 with 43 homers and drove in 115 runs in 536 at-bats at high-A ball in 2005. To follow that up, he put up a .276 average, 25 homers, 83 RBI and 19 steals in 453 at-bats at Double-A in 2006. The knock on him is that he struck out 149 times in Double-A and 128 times in high-A. Current starting shortstop Orlando Cabrera is coming off a very good season, in which he hit .282 with nine homers, 72 RBI, 95 runs and stole 27 bases. The 32-year-old Cabrera is under contract for two more years. If Wood lights it up at Triple-A this year, you can expect the team to start shopping Cabrera to make room for Wood. For now, expect him to be at Triple-A for a full season.

Projected arrival: September call-up

Chris B. Young, Center Fielder, Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB Experience: 70 at-bats

Player in his spot: None

Analysis: The Diamondbacks acquired Young when they dealt starting pitcher Javier Vazquez two years ago. The 23-year-old has all the tools, drawing comparisons to former Cincinnati Reds outfielder Eric Davis. Young hit .276 with 21 homers, 77 RBI, 78 runs and 17 steals at Triple-A Tucson before coming up for 70 at-bats late in 2006. The year before, he hit .277 with 26 homers, 77 RBI, 100 runs and 32 steals at Double-A Birmingham, when he was in the Chicago White Sox farm system. In his stint with the Diamondbacks last season, he batted .243 with two homers and two steals. Even with that unspectacular showing, teammates noticed the offensive potential that Young displayed. The organization did as well - Young has already been declared the team's starting center fielder heading into the spring. With no realistic alternatives, and because he's the team's fastest player, it's likely that he'll also lead off. As he adapts to the big leagues, though, look for his diverse skills to move him down the lineup. Young's talent level makes him an intriguing late-round pick in shallow leagues. If no one picks him, he should definitely be on your watch list.

Projected arrival: Opening Day starter

Delmon Young, Right Fielder, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

MLB Experience: 126 at-bats

Player in his spot: None

Analysis: As he did last year, Young may enter this season as the game's top prospect, but the difference is that, barring a disaster, he will be the major league club's everyday right fielder. You've probably heard the rep: good fundamentals and incredible talent in all phases of the game. He does tend to be overaggressive at times, though. He was Baseball America's 2005 Minor League Player of the Year, when he hit a combined .315 with 26 home runs, 99 RBI, 92 runs and 32 stolen bases at Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Durham. Last year he batted .316 with eight home runs, 59 RBI, 50 runs and 22 steals in 342 at-bats at Durham. However, controversy overshadowed his success and ability. In April, after being called out on strikes, Young threw his bat, hitting an ump. He received a 50-game suspension. In July he publicly criticized the Devils Rays because they had yet to promote him, the second time he had done so in a 10-month span. After all of that, Young was a September call-up, and he didn't disappoint, hitting .317 with three homers, 16 runs and two steals in 126 at-bats. His maturity remains in question, but his talent does not. On average, Young is going in the early-to-mid part of the ninth round of fantasy drafts. He may not last that long in some leagues. Ideally, he'd be a fantasy team's third outfielder because it's risky to rely on him as its No. 2, but he is talented enough to serve in that capacity.

Projected arrival: Opening Day starter