Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

MLB Fantasy Grapevine

March 30, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Welcome to the 2007 MLB Draft Guide Fantasy Grapevine. In this feature, we'll detail what has gone on over the last week to cause our projections to change. Whether it's an injury, a platoon circumstance or a breakout performance, we'll keep you "in the know" in this report.

Seattle Mariners designated hitter Jose Vidro

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: Seattle has done little to improve a fairly weak lineup. It's a reflection of the state of things when the team has to bat him third, which is reportedly the case. Nevertheless, Vidro, despite an inability to stay healthy in the last three years, is a solid hitter. More at-bats means a bit more production.

Fantasy Tip: It's still unlikely that Vidro is worth much in mixed leagues, although it's possible that he's worth a late-round flier.

Kansas City Royals shortstop Angel Berroa

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: The Royals have tired of Berroa's flaws (impatience, lack of concentration) and reluctance to correct them. The club optioned him to Triple-A Omaha, and they may trade him if they can find a taker. Kansas City recently traded pitcher Erik Cordier to the Atlanta Braves for shortstop Tony Pena Jr., who will be the team's Opening Day shortstop.

Fantasy Tip: Berroa loses the little fantasy value that he had. Pena is at best a wait-and-see player, even in AL-Only leagues.

Washington Nationals outfielder Nook Logan

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: Logan (groin) is expected to miss at least two weeks with a groin injury. Outfielder Ryan Church will move to center field, and outfielder Chris Snelling moves into the lineup in left. Logan was a potentially sneaky source of steals, especially in NL-Only leagues, so it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to recover from an injury that can linger.

Fantasy Tip: Logan loses value in NL-Only leagues. Snelling could be an intriguing short-term pickup, but don't have high expectations.

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Freddy Sanchez

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: Sanchez (knee) has a knee injury that had kept him out of spring action for more than three weeks. He could even begin the season on the disabled list, although he has recently gotten some minor league action in without any reported problems. Still, it looks like there's a fair chance that Sanchez will miss some at-bats.

Fantasy Tip: Sanchez falls in many drafts, so this will help that trend along. If he slips far enough, he could end up being a low-risk steal.

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Jason Repko

Situation: Removed from rankings

Analysis: Repko (hamstring) will miss the 2007 season after two of the three hamstring tendons in his left leg tore last week.

Fantasy Tip: Repko had no fantasy value, so this won't affect cheat sheets or teams.

Baltimore Orioles outfielder Jay Payton

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: Payton (hamstring) is expected to begin the season on the disabled list and miss at least a couple of weeks.

Fantasy Tip: Payton's AL-Only value takes a hit.

Washington Nationals first baseman Dmitri Young

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: The club named Young the starter at first base, giving him an everyday job in the absence of first baseman Nick Johnson (leg). The Nats released first baseman Travis Lee, who subsequently retired; he was then removed from the projections. Johnson has officially hit the DL; KFFL has tweaked his outlook to reflect a slightly longer stay there.

Fantasy Tip: Young is worth a spot in NL-Only leagues for sure, but mixed leaguers should ignore this unless he goes on a tear, which he has occasionally been known to do. Johnson gets drafted, but it may be a waste of DL space, except in NL-Only leagues.

San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: The release of infielder Todd Walker and the Padres' obvious infatuation with the youngster that wielded a serious stick in the minors makes Kouzmanoff a fantasy player on the rise. Walker has been removed from our rankings.

Fantasy Tip: Mixed leaguers can certainly can a late shot with Kouzmanoff for sure, but the Walker news has no fantasy impact.

Florida Marlins outfielder Alejandro De Aza

Situation: Added to rankings

Analysis: De Aza was the somewhat surprising winner of the center field sweepstakes in Miami. He hit well over .300 with four steals and sports a solid glove. He has never hit extremely well in the minors, but the job should give him prominent fantasy presence.

Fantasy Tip: It's hard to recommend picking up such a player in mixed leagues, but NL-Only players have a low-risk add here, because De Aza could end up swiping some bases.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Chris Denorfia

Situation: Removed from rankings

Analysis: Denorfia (elbow) will have Tommy John surgery this coming Tuesday, so he's out for the year.

Fantasy Tip: This has little impact on fantasy leagues.

Chicago White Sox catcher Toby Hall

Situation: Removed from rankings

Analysis: Hall (shoulder) has a torn labrum. He has elected to rehab it for a month in hopes of being able to play this season. These situations often don't end pretty, and he may very well have to have the surgery anyway.

Fantasy Tip: Backup or not, Hall is worth little when he's healthy.

Kansas City Royals outfielder Emil Brown

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: The Royals may trade outfielder Reggie Sanders after the news that third baseman Alex Gordon is the starter and Mark Teahen is moving to right field. The thought was that Brown might lose some at-bats, because the club seems to give him little respect. They still don't, because he has reportedly expected to platoon with outfielder Ross Gload. Expect Brown to get more at-bats and stand out against that comp.

Fantasy Tip: Brown is a solid upside pick at the end of AL-Only drafts or a nice fill-in from the free-agent list. Sanders is wait-and-see status, because he needs a place to play, but wherever he goes, he should play.

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher John Danks

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: Danks won the fifth starter's job, beating out Gavin Floyd. Danks was a nice acquisition for Chicago, and with that lineup, he could post some wins. He should be in the rotation for most of the season, especially because Floyd can't seem to get it together at the big league level. Floyd has been removed.

Fantasy Tip: Don't worry about Danks in mixed leagues, but AL-Only and full-retention players could take him. Floyd has no value.

Florida Marlins closer Jorge Julio

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: He rises BIG TIME in the rankings. KFFL was anticipating a move like this, and now Julio's projections can show it. He performed well in the role for the Arizona Diamondbacks last year. Reliever Taylor Tankersley (shoulder) will begin the season on the disabled list, and now he won't be in the mix for saves. Reliever Kevin Gregg, the former frontrunner for the job, also loses out.

Fantasy Tip: Julio is now roughly an 11th- or 12th-round pick, but he's fair game after the 10th. It wouldn't be surprising to see him go earlier, based on the excitement.

Arizona Diamondbacks closer Jose Valverde

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: With Julio's exit, Valverde has a little more security. It also may show how confident the club is in him, although the trade was likely more about what Julio would bring. The D-Backs landed pitching prospect Yusmeiro Petit, who will head to the minors now and has been removed as a result of this deal. Reliever Brandon Lyon sees a slight increase as well, given Valverde's injury history and somewhat shaky past.

Fantasy Tip: Valverde rises only slightly in value, but he becomes a more stable pick. Lyon has a bit more value, but not to an extent that he's worth drafting or picking up anywhere. Petit has none for the time being.

Florida Marlins pitcher Sergio Mitre

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: With Petit leaving town, Mitre (shoulder), who was having shoulder issues early in camp, is unopposed, essentially, for the role of No. 5 starter.

Fantasy Tip: Mitre is not a fantasy option right now, although he could easily be a spot starter in NL-Only leagues.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Juan Cruz

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: It appears that Cruz won't have a spot in the rotation. Although he may pick up a couple of starts during the season, he is less useful as a reliever.

Fantasy Tip: Don't draft Cruz.

New York Mets relief pitcher Duaner Sanchez

Situation: Removed from projections

Analysis: Sanchez (shoulder) is now out until at least August with a broken bone in his pitching shoulder. At this rate, don't look for much help from him.

Fantasy Tip: He doesn't get drafted, but now there's no need to look for him.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jamey Wright

Situation: Added to rankings

Analysis: Wright won the job of No. 5 starter for the Rangers, a role which previously carried approximately one quarter of the fantasy value of a walnut. Starting pitcher Edinson Volquez was sent down to the minors a while ago, but he could still figure into things later this season. The club also optioned pitcher John Koronka to Triple-A Oklahoma, and he's unlikely to be much of a factor this year.

Fantasy Tip: Hopefully fantasy owners aren't considering any of these pitchers. Theoretically Wright could make a spot start or two for an AL-Only fantasy team this year - maybe. Volquez still has a decent ceiling, but don't draft him.

Kansas City Royals pitcher Scott Elarton

Situation: Removed from rankings

Analysis: Elarton (shoulder) could possibly return in May, but at this point, he presents little in the way of optimism for the organization.

Fantasy Tip: The righty just isn't worth projecting.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Hong-Chih Kuo

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: Kuo (shoulder) fell out of the race for the fifth starter's spot when he developed shoulder soreness. He's expected to rehab it for a couple of weeks before throwing again. He'll pitch in relief when he returns, although starts down the road aren't out of the question.

Fantasy Tip: Kuo has a high strikeout rate and could be useful as a free-agent pickup later, but ignore him for now, except in NL-Only leagues.

Texas Rangers pitcher Ezequiel Astacio

Situation: Removed from rankings

Analysis: Astacio was in the running for a rotation spot with the Houston Astros, but he was waived and then claimed by the Rangers. That's where pitchers go to die - relax, figuratively.

Fantasy Tip: Don't consider obtaining him, please.

Houston Astros closer Brad Lidge

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: Lidge's struggles continue to mount. He has had a poor spring and has been working extensively to correct his mechanics. Such developments don't impart confidence in his fantasy value.

Fantasy Tip: Lidge could fall a round or more in drafts that have yet to take place. He represents a pretty sizeable risk at this point.

San Francisco Giants closer Armando Benitez

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: Benitez continues his very good spring, with one run allowed, and he has now mown down nine batters in 7 1/3 innings. Reliever Brian Wilson's prospects for the job are slowly fading, especially with some late spring struggles.

Fantasy Tip: Benitez is becoming more of a viable closer option, worthy of the risk in the later middle rounds. He's creeping up, while Wilson is, well, not.

Los Angeles Dodgers closer Takashi Saito

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: He doesn't fall far, but after further review, KFFL felt that his projections were overly optimistic the first time around. The adjustments should reflect a slightly more realistic outlook for Saito, and don't forget that reliever Jonathan Broxton is always waiting in the wings.

Fantasy Tip: Saito has lost virtually no fantasy value here, so don't adjust your cheat sheets.

San Diego Padres pitcher Cla Meredith

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: After further examination, KFFL felt the need to tweak Meredith, who isn't as deserving of consideration above some of the more proven relievers in the league, especially those in (albeit tenuous) closing situations.

Fantasy Tip: Meredith goes undrafted in mixed leagues and still should unless they're very deep. NL-Only players still have themselves a solid ratio contributor.

Texas Rangers relief pitcher Akinori Otsuka

Situation: Rises in rankings

Analysis: Otsuka's ranking was increased, as he will serve as the team's closer for two weeks while Eric Gagne (elbow) starts the season on the disabled list.

Fantasy Tip: It's very unlikely Otsuka is on waivers. For those in leagues that haven't drafted yet, he's going around the mid-teen rounds, which may be a little high. Definitely secure him if you have Gagne though.

Detroit Tigers starter Kenny Rogers

Situation: Falls in rankings

Analysis: Rogers (shoulder) underwent surgery to remove a blood clot and repair blood vessels in his left shoulder. He will be out until at least July. Due to this, he has been adjusted down the rankings. Zach Miner should get the bulk of the starts in Rogers' absence, and he was increased in the rankings.

Fantasy Tip: Rogers can be released if you don't have a DL spot. Miner isn't fantasy viable just yet.

Colorado Rockies starter Jason Hirsh

Situation: Added to projections

Analysis: Jason Hirsh's future appears to be now. We added him to our projections, as he appears to be in the rotation. We removed Taylor Buchholz, who doesn't appear to have a role with the team right now. Brian Lawrence will begin the season in the minors for seasoning and was reduced accordingly.

Fantasy Tip: Hirsh doesn't have fantasy value yet. However, if the 6-foot-8 hurler masters Coors, he could be a very deep sleeper.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays relievers Al Reyes and Chad Orvella

Situation: Added to projections; Rises in rankings

Analysis: Al Reyes' comeback bid appears to be successful, as he is among a number of relievers in the mess that is the Devil Rays' bullpen. He was added to projections. Orvella had a great spring, and he's our favorite to be the closer over the long haul. We removed Seth McClung because he has been sent down and isn't on good terms with the team for coming to camp overweight after being handed the closer's job.

Fantasy Tip: It's anyone's guess as to who will close for Tampa now. Reyes and Orvella are worth owning in deeper leagues.