Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Fantasy Auctioneer NL-Only Auction Review

March 15, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

KFFL managing editors Ryan Dodson and Nick Minnix participated in a live NL-Only league auction draft Thursday, March 8. The league is a typical 5x5 format and consists of 12 teams. Rosters include 23 starters and five reserves. Starters are made up of two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a third baseman, a shortstop, a corner infielder, a middle infielder, five outfielders, a utility player and nine pitchers. Each of the teams had a $260 salary cap, which they would only spend on their starters. Reserve players can be players from any position and have a salary of $0. Teams selected their reserves in a serpentine format at the conclusion of the auction. KFFL was 12th in the pecking order to nominate players, while we were first in the post-auction reserve draft.

This was KFFL's first auction of the 2007 season. Other members included: Yahoo!, Fantasy Auctioneer, FantasyBaseball.com, The Sporting News, SmartGuySports, CREATiVESPORTS, ESPN 920, ESPN, NFBC, Big Dawg Baseball and BaseballHQ. KFFL accomplished some of its goals, including adding players at value, but in the end there were a couple of areas in which we thought we came up short.

Table: KFFL NL-Only League Auction Roster - Starters

Pos.	Player	Team	Bid	Avg
C	Paul Lo Duca	New York Mets	$12	$17
C	Rod Barajas	Philadelphia Phillies	$5	$8
1B	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	$47	$48
2B	Rickie Weeks	Milwaukee Brewers	$21	$20
3B	Corey Koskie	Milwaukee Brewers	$1	$3
SS	Cristian Guzman	Washington Nationals	$1	$0
CI	Cesar Izturis	Chicago Cubs	$3	$2
MI	Jamey Carroll	Colorado Rockies	$2	$10
OF	Jason Bay	Pittsburgh Pirates	$31	$34
OF	Matt Holliday	Colorado Rockies	$31	$35
OF	Nook Logan	Washington Nationals	$5	$3
OF	Ryan Langerhans	Atlanta Braves	$2	$0
OF	Scott Spiezio	St. Louis Cardinals	$2	$2
Util	Jose Valentin	New York Mets	$4	$7
P	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	$28	$28
P	John Smoltz	Atlanta Braves	$18	$19
P	Brad Penny	Los Angeles Dodgers	$11	$5
P	Mark Prior	Chicago Cubs	$5	$6
P	Kyle Davies	Atlanta Braves	$1	$2
P	Takashi Saito	Los Angeles Dodgers	$17	$22
P	Jason Isringhausen	St. Louis Cardinals	$9	$16
P	Brian Wilson	San Francisco Giants	$2	$2
P	Mike Stanton	Cincinnati Reds	$1	$1

Table: KFFL NL-Only League Auction Roster - Reserves

Pos.	Player	Team	Bid	Avg
1B	Brad Eldred	Pittsburgh Pirates	$0	$0
OF	Alex Sanchez	Florida Marlins	$0	$1
IF	Kevin Frandsen	San Francisco Giants	$0	$0
OF	Lastings Milledge	New York Mets	$0	$1
P	Jerome Williams	Washington Nationals	$0	$0

We began by landing the first player brought up, St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. In hindsight it might not have been the wisest decision to invest close to his average price; it might have limited us as far as our investments in other players and positions. Similar assessments could be made of the decisions to spend on Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks. We love the youngster's upside and skills; at a thin position in the NL, we thought we had to go that extra dollar at the time. We were able to make up for it in other areas, particularly in the snaring of big-name outfielders: the Colorado Rockies' Matt Holliday and the Pittsburgh Pirates' Jason Bay. All in all, though, we were happy with the foundation that these four players, particularly Pujols, Holliday and Bay, gave us on offense.

At catcher we were happy to land the New York Mets' Paul Lo Duca, who is expected to bat in the two-hole once again. A .300 average and a ton of runs from your catcher will never hurt you. The Philadelphia Phillies' Rod Barajas, who we expect to see the majority of the at-bats there, is another backstop in a prolific offense. They present low risk with good reward at a shallow position in the NL, and hopefully they'll prove to be worth the discounted price. We were a bit tight on several of our positions, and we hope that it won't hurt us.

One thing we believed was that people undervalued the value of likely starters in a league in which depth is a large concern. While expectations for Washington Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman and Chicago Cubs shortstop Cesar. Izturis will play in a great offense, although at the bottom of the lineup. He is currently unopposed, though, and at 27, the career .295 hitter that can steal 15-20 bases doesn't seem like a risk to KFFL. Guzman is just two years removed from fantasy relevance. Injuries derailed his career for the past two years, but at only 29 when the season begins, a likely starting job for most of the season and a good shot at the No. 2 spot in the batting order, he can be a solid fantasy performer in an NL-Only league. A .260 average, 45 RBI, 75 runs and 12 stolen bases aren't out of the realm of possibility, nor are they anything to sneeze at in this sort of league. Guzman's teammate, outfielder Nook Logan, has high stolen base potential. In a category we felt KFFL might be sorely lacking, we paid a couple of bucks extra.

We filled out the roster with Colorado Rockies infielder Jamey Carroll, Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Corey Koskie, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Scott Spiezio and Atlanta Braves outfielder Ryan Langerhans. All are players that aren't expected to see a full season of at-bats, and landing such players is normal in a league this shallow. Our regret was that we didn't grab one or two young, prospect-type players with greater upside. This is where the Pujols addition could've hurt us. Many of these potential impact youngsters, however, went for inflated prices. Their bids soared, going anywhere from roughly $5 to $11 or more - in most cases, much more than their average.

For players that aren't guaranteed much, if any, time, we weren't certain that it was worth the investment. It wouldn't have hurt to gamble on one or two players of this caliber, though. Koskie is an injury risk. Carroll, coming off a career year and in line for time at second base, could be a steal, although he wasn't a target. Langerhans is a fill-in. Spiezio intrigued KFFL, because he plays in a very good lineup and backs up injury-prone players in the outfield. Sure enough, it has paid off already. Outfielders Jim Edmonds (foot, shoulder) and Juan Encarnacion (wrist) are expected to begin the season on the disabled list. Spiezio smacked 13 homers in 276 at-bats, and he's manager Tony La Russa's kind of player.

In the pitching department, we were happy to land a couple of aces in the Cardinals' Chris Carpenter and the Atlanta Braves John Smoltz. KFFL continues to trump Smoltz as undervalued. The veteran right-hander continues to defy the detractors that predict a declining strikeout rate. He has spent the offseason adding a changeup to his arsenal, which should allow him to present a new look to hitters as well as save his arm. With a better bullpen, his 16 wins shouldn't be difficult to duplicate. The rest of our rotation leaves a little to be desired, with an inconsistent and overpriced Brad Penny of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs' Mark Prior. Prior already appears to be out of the running for the fifth starter's job, so we may make it a priority to secure starting pitcher Wade Miller, the frontrunner, when free agency opens. Atlanta Braves starter Kyle Davies is a low-risk investment that, just a year and a half ago, was a top prospect for the club. A groin injury robbed him of about two and a half months last season. He has pitched quite well this spring, so the hope is that he can be a serviceable starter for KFFL.

At reliever, we were elated to land two unquestioned closers at a discount in an NL-Only league. The Los Angeles Dodgers' Takashi Saito brings a phenomenal strikeout rate and could prove to be a steal, although there is concern that he may be exposed with a year for hitters to study him. Izzy (hip) had surgery in September, and he's on schedule to be ready well before Opening Day. Last year's poor numbers and injury appear to be the result of a heavy workload. His surgery was a success, though.

An observer noted that Isringhausen threw free and easy in a recent bullpen session. Most recently writers described him as pain-free and sharp. He's set to make his spring debut Thursday, March 15.

KFFL could have high value there, a position of strength when paired with San Francisco Giants reliever Brian Wilson. He stands a good chance of being the Giants' closer, because the team may trade Armando Benitez. Even if not, Benitez is notoriously a risk for injury at this point in his career. Wilson should still have his chance. Cincinnati Reds reliever Mike Stanton was our dark horse for the stopper role there, but it was strictly a gamble. Recently signed reliever Dustin Hermanson seems to have thrown himself in the mix, too, making that situation even muddier. Regardless, it says a lot about the confidence in reliever David Weathers.

For our reserves, we wanted to take a shot on a couple of youngsters that are performing well this spring but have outside chances at jobs. Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum was a target, but we went with Pirates first baseman Brad Eldred, who's batting .379 with four home runs in 29 at-bats this spring. Without a clear path, we don't expect him to have an impact right away. However, Pittsburgh has tested him in the outfield in the past few days, with positive results. He missed most of last season with a broken thumb, and then a shoulder problem limited his time in the Arizona Fall League. Once a top prospect, the 26-year-old has Paul Bunyanesque power (12 home runs in 190 at-bats with the Pirates in 2005) and, if given the opportunity, could be a solid investment.

Florida Marlins outfielder Alex Sanchez has a shot at the Opening Day job in center, and he can still steal bases. Although hitting just .214 this spring, he has already swiped four bags. Giants infielder Kevin Frandsen will probably end up as a wasted pick, but he backs up the injury-prone Ray Durham at second. KFFL then took New York Mets outfielder Lastings Milledge, a player with undeniable talent but no starting job. He has served as possible trade bait, though, and a move to a new team would conceivably give him instant playing time. KFFL's last selection was a shot in the dark. Washington starting pitcher Jerome Williams showed lots of promise with the Giants three years ago, and he should almost certainly have a job after spring training. Perhaps the spacious park in D.C. will help him find his form.

All in all KFFL came away a little disappointed with the final roster. With a roster top-heavy in hitting and pitching, we have a solid foundation. Fewer upside picks may end up hurting us. We are, however, happy with some of our very cheap players, so a couple of free-agent additions to the lineup and rotation may be all we need to make us serious contenders. It's important to realize, though, that fantasy leaguers in NL-Only (or AL-Only) leagues have a much smaller margin for error when it comes to the draft, because there are very few options on the waiver wire that end up having an impact. For that reason, KFFL must learn from a few pickups here, being more conservative on the high-dollar players like Pujols and less so on the middle-of-the-pack players with upside. KFFL must make the most of its free-agent pursuits in this season in the NL-Only league.