Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Rebounds and Drop-offs for 2007

January 12, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Mitch Fortner and Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Nicholas Minnix and Ryan Dodson

The 2006 baseball season featured a number of disappointing or surprisingly good fantasy players. That's not unusual, but the sheer number of players to decline or emerge last year was. Ordinarily dependable veterans experienced disturbing downfalls. Rookies and other inexperienced players posted unreal and completely unexpected numbers. How does this happen?

A number of factors contribute to a poor showing from a tenured player. They include injuries, changing situations and an unusually high workload. The same goes for youngsters and their grand efforts; unforeseen opportunities, high talent level and low expectations often set the table for them.

The challenge entering the following season is to figure out which of these performances were flukes and which ones weren't. Fantasy baseball players need to take a look beyond the surface (the numbers) to discover whether or not there's a chance for a rebound season, or that a huge letdown is in store. Examining these trends now will give fantasy leaguers the edge as they prepare for drafts, because they'll have an idea of which players they can expect to be undervalued and overvalued.

Players on the Rebound

Eric Chavez | Third baseman | Oakland Athletics

2006 Output: Chavez won his sixth Gold Glove Award in 2006, but with a bat in his hands he was a nightmare. Notoriously a slow starter, Chavez began April with a bang by batting .301 with nine home runs and 20 RBI. After that he never hit higher than .253 in a month (save for one game in October) en route to a .241 average with 22 home runs and 72 RBI in just 137 games.

Reason: In May Chavez battled a bacterial infection that stole his mojo. A month later tendinitis in his forearms dragged him down for a majority of the season. Other medical maladies plagued him by season's end.

Early 2007 Forecast: With an offseason to recover, Chavez should be at full strength. He's a gritty player who takes his bumps and bruises, but last season's were too much. He's a career .271 hitter that averaged 30 home runs per season in the five seasons prior to last year. His power numbers have been on a very slow decline, but Chavez is 30 years old, not 36. Chavez does present risk because he missed a little more than a month in 2004 with a broken bone in his hand, so he has missed time in two of the past three seasons. At 29 he's in his prime, though, and better than his 2006 numbers. He should be closer to his 2005 numbers (.269, 27 home runs and 101 RBI) this season.

Tim Hudson | Starting pitcher | Atlanta Braves

2006 Output: Hudson set career highs in 2006 by giving up 129 runs, 118 earned runs and 25 home runs in addition to a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 218.1 innings of work. Opponents had their best season against Hudson as well, hitting .273 for the season.

Reason: It's a mystery as to what has plagued Hudson for most of 2006. Manager Bobby Cox named Hudson the team's No. 1 starter entering the season, and perhaps he couldn't handle the pressure. That's doubtful, though, because Hudson was the ace when he was with the Oakland Athletics. The reality is that he has lost some velocity after logging more than 1,600 innings in his eight-year career.

Early 2007 Forecast: If Hudson can stay off the DL, he could get back to his old form. The return of Mike Hampton (elbow) from elbow surgery and the addition of reliever Rafeal Soriano to the bullpen should strengthen the Braves' staff and help take some of the pressure off Hudson. The Braves and Cox are known for putting together an impressive corps of pitchers year in and year out. Hudson has reportedly worked hard to put last season behind him, so don't expect him to be as bad as he was in 2006. Just don't expect him to be as good as he was during his prime in Oakland.

Mark Buehrle | Starting pitcher | Chicago White Sox

2006 Output: Throughout most of the first half of the season Buehrle was in usual form, as he went 9-6 with a 4.02 ERA. He made the All-star team more likely than not because manager Ozzie Guillen handpicked him. However, in the second half of the season he struggled mightily, winning just three games, losing seven and posting an ERA of 6.44. The results of his Jekyll-and-Hyde season were career low in wins (12) and a career high in ERA (4.99). He gave up a career-high 36 home runs and struck out a career low 98 batters.

Reason: The entire White Sox starting rotation struggled in the second half of the 2006 season and may need to regain confidence as a group if they hope to get back to their World Series form of 2005. During that season Buehrle logged 227.1 innings, including the postseason. He had pitched at least 230 innings in each of the previous four seasons. The hefty workload that took him and the White Sox late into the 2005 season likely resulted in a hangover, causing him and other Chicago arms to flame out.

Early 2007 Forecast: For Buehrle, his talent is not in question and neither is his age as he will be just 28 years old this year. Much like Atlanta Braves starter Tim Hudson, he has been consistently good throughout his career. While Buehrle may return to being a top-notch pitcher in 2007, the AL Central is arguably baseball's toughest division, and his 3.12 ERA in 2005 may be difficult to duplicate. The hitters in the division are just too talented. With a full offseason, though, Buehrle should be a serviceable fantasy pitcher.

Dontrelle Willis | Starting pitcher | Florida Marlins

2006 Output: The Marlins were a team that exceeded all expectations last season, making the entire roster a fantasy hot spot for owners. Willis, however, was a disappointment, as indicated by his 12-12 overall record and 1.42 WHIP. His 3.87 ERA and 160 Ks were respectable, but not what was expected after a dominant 2005 season (22-10, 170 Ks and a 2.63 ERA.)

Reason: The Marlins are a young team and struggled to find their identity early on. At age 24, Willis must've felt the burden that came with being the ace and leader of such a young team. He also tended to deviate from his deceptive delivery a bit, making it easier for hitters to identify his pitches earlier.

Early 2007 Forecast: Expectations for Willis were just too high last season. He also went through some off-the-field troubles when he was arrested for a DUI in December. At just 25 years old, Willis could struggle for a second consecutive season. Willis is a true athlete, though, and has been known to impress at the plate as well as on the mound. He has a very talented, young team surrounding him. Willis still showed plenty of moxie last season, mixing in dazzling starts with his very poor outings. The reality is that, at a young age and with a young team, more of the same is likely in store this year.

Scott Podsednik | Outfielder | Chicago White Sox

2006 Output: Podsednik struggled early on and failed to recover, hitting .261 and posting an on-base percentage of just .330 while batting mostly in the leadoff spot for the Sox. For a player who relies on speed rather than power, getting on base is the most important factor to a successful season. Podsednik totaled just 40 stolen bases after a combined 129 the previous two seasons.

Reason: A leadoff hitter's job is to get on base frequently, and Podsednik struggled with this in 2006. After just 75 strikeouts in 2005, Podsednik fanned 96 times last season. Podsednik entered the season with nagging groin and shoulder injuries, although he seemed to shake them less than a month into the season.

Early 2007 Forecast: Patience at the plate and taking walks to get on base will be important for Podsednik in 2007. If he continues to struggle he will likely lose his leadoff spot. At the conclusion of the 2006 season, general manager Kenny Williams stated that he'd like to remake the top of his lineup. Podsednik has speed to burn, but he's 30 and is very inconsistent. In 2004 he hit just .244; he just happened to swipe 70 bags. The Sox re-signed Podsednik with a one-year, $2.9 million, and the outfielder will likely have to prove himself. He's not a bankable commodity, but he could be worth the gamble in the middle or later rounds.

Coco Crisp | Outfielder | Boston Red Sox

2006 Output: Injuries plagued Crisp for much of the season as an injured left index finger limited him to just 105 games. For the season he hit .264 with eight home runs, 58 runs and 22 stolen bases. While out because of injury, first baseman Kevin Youkilis shined as the leadoff hitter for the Sox and a healthy Crisp was hitting at the bottom of the order upon his return. Crisp did finish in the top spot, however.

Reason: Crisp never really got into a rhythm due to his injured left hand. Expectations were high after an impressive 2005 with the Cleveland Indians (.300 batting average, 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases) and a move to Boston. The pressure to perform in Boston is intense.

2007 Forecast: With the addition of shortstop Julio Lugo, another hitter with leadoff potential, Crisp will likely remain at the bottom of the order. Crisp is a solid center fielder and has speed to burn, but after losing his spot at the top of the order, his fantasy numbers will likely never reach what many hoped for when he was brought in to replace outfielder Johnny Damon (New York Yankees) last year. If he can remain healthy all season he could still be a solid source for average and stolen bases; he should enefit just from being a member of the Red Sox's potent offense.

Morgan Ensberg | Third baseman | Houston Astros

2006 Output: Perhaps the biggest fantasy disappointment in 2006, Ensberg struggled with injuries and less-than-spectacular play. He managed only a .235 average with just 58 RBI and 23 home runs. After a monster 2005 season (.283, 36 home runs, 101 RBI), big things were expected from Ensberg and he did not respond.

Reason: His decline in power coincided with his shoulder injury last year (17 homers in the first two months, six the rest of the way). Ensberg has been inconsistent throughout his career, though, and for the second time, followed up an impressive season with a below-average season, leaving fantasy owners baffled.

2007 Forecast: While the jury is still out on what type of player Ensberg will truly become, his career-high walk total of 101 and career high on-base percentage of .396 in 2006 leaves hope that he can still become the type of player to hit 35 home runs and 100 RBI on a consistent basis. Save for one year, he hasn't really shown that he can hold up for an entire season. He may very well enter the season in a platoon situation. Be advised when selecting Ensberg, but the risk should be low as his numbers from last season will earn him a late-round slot.

Hank Blalock | Third baseman | Texas Rangers

2006 Output: The 2006 season was Blalock's worst since becoming a starter in 2003. He posted an average of .266 with just 16 home runs and 89 RBI.

Reason: As soon as the season ended Blalock was scheduled for shoulder surgery to repair some damage. Although it was reported it didn't affect his swing, one has to wonder if it is the reason behind his struggles at the plate. Blalock's numbers have consistently declined over the last three seasons and

2007 Forecast: A healthy shoulder and hitting in a lineup with shortstop Michael Young and first baseman Mark Teixeira should help Blalock's numbers in 2007. The three year statistical decline is a concern however, and fantasy owners should have a backup plan in case Blalock gets off to a slow start.

Others of Note

Jake Peavy | Starting pitcher | San Diego Padres

(11-14, 4.09 ERA and 215 Ks)

Bobby Crosby | Shortstop | Oakland Athletics

(.229 BA, 9 HRs and 40 RBI)

Josh Beckett | Starting pitcher | Boston Red Sox

(16-11, 5.09 ERA and 158 Ks)

Players Headed for a Drop-off

Jered Weaver | Starting Pitcher | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2006 Output: The Angels called up Weaver for four starts between May 27 and June 13, then recalled him for good because his brother Jeff couldn't hold down a spot in the rotation. Jered Weaver went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 105 Ks in 123 innings. He also tied a major-league record for most wins without a loss to start a career, with nine.

Reason: Weaver's delivery was considered a bit deceptive, and he displayed pinpoint control for most of the season. Scouts considered him the most major-league ready pitcher in the minors.

Early 2007 Forecast: Although Weaver didn't pitch like it, he was never forecasted to be the ace of any staff. Big-league hitters started to figure him out a bit, as Weaver gave up three earned runs or more in four of his last six starts. Weaver's K rate of 11.06 in the minors fell to 7.68 in the majors. With an offseason to study film of him, AL hitters could certainly send him toward a sophomore slump. The former Long Beach State hurler is mature enough to be productive for fantasy teams, but expect him to be up and down in 2007.

Dan Uggla | Second baseman | Florida Marlins

2006 Output: Reaching the All-Star game as a rookie, Uggla (.282, 27 home runs, 90 RBI) led the team in home runs and posted the most ever by a rookie second baseman, surpassing a record that has been around since 1938, when Joe Gordon of the Yankees hit 24.

Reason: One of the many impressive rookies for the Marlins, Uggla excelled while hitting second behind National league Rookie of the Year shortstop Hanley Ramirez. He was also a relative unknown.

Early 2007 Forecast: Scouts never considered Uggla's ceiling extremely high. However, he's a hard worker and put up similar numbers in the minors. His power at second base is rare and could be a distinct advantage for fantasy owners. If Uggla continues to hit between Ramirez and third baseman Miguel Cabrera, he could produce again, but it's hard to expect a repeat. However, Ramirez and the entire Marlins team overachieved last season, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them come back down to earth. Uggla hit .256 in the second half and just .221 in September, which could be a sign of things to come.

Ty Wigginton | First baseman | Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2006 Output: After signing with the Devil Rays because of his versatility defensively, Wigginton (.275, 24 home runs, 79 RBI) impressed with his bat and became a key component to the lineup. Although he missed some time due to a hand injury, he still managed to lead the team in home runs.

Reason: Wigginton was once a top-level prospect in the New York Mets organization, but he didn't show much in the majors and in 2005 was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who released him after that season. His versatility on defense, where he can play first, second, third and the outfield, gave him the opportunity to be in the lineup every day. He responded to the playing time and earned a spot in the heart of order offensively.

Early 2007 Forecast: With the additions of top prospects like outfielder Delmon Young and infielder B.J. Upton, the Devil Rays could be adding some much needed firepower. This should help Wigginton's RBI totals. Because of his ability to play multiple positions, he will almost always have a spot in the lineup and carries some fantasy value. Don't expect Wigginton to hit 40 homers or carry a fantasy team, but he could once again be a decent injury fill-in or bench player. He still carries risk because of his poor history, and he has little value as a first baseman.

Freddy Sanchez | Second baseman | Pittsburgh Pirates

2006 Output: One of the lone bright spots in an otherwise lackluster season for the Pirates, Sanchez earned a bid to the All-Star game and won the National league batting crown after hitting .344, five points better than Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera. Sanchez struck out just 52 times in 582 at-bats while driving in, as well as scoring, 85 runs.

Reason: Sanchez exhibited impressive patience at the plate as he was able to lead the league in average. Anytime a player rarely strikes out, he is setting himself up for success.

Early 2007 Forecast: Although it isn't the most formidable lineup in baseball, the Pirates have some young talent. It's hard to expect a player of Sanchez's caliber to repeat such a high average, and he provides little in the way of power at a position where those categories are crucial. Selecting and depending on him as your starting third baseman is probably not a risk worth taking, especially if he doesn't provide you with the average.

Gary Matthews Jr. | Outfielder | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2006 Output: Matthews experienced a breakout year for the Texas Rangers in 2006 as the leadoff hitter. He hit .313 on the year while driving in 79 runs (tops in the AL among leadoff hitters), stealing 10 bases and scoring 102 runs. In addition, he hit for the cycle on Sept. 13th against the Detroit Tigers, going 4-for-4 with three runs and three RBI.

Reason: His ability as a switch-hitter helped him hit equally well against left-handed and right-handed pitchers. Scouts consider him one of the most improved players, offensively and defensively, in the majors over the last three seasons.

Early 2007 Forecast: After signing with the AL West rival Angels, Matthews will now team with Vladimir Guerrero and Juan Rivera to form a potentially potent outfield. While it is possible that utility player Chone Figgins will lead off, Matthews should at least be right in the heart of the order, surrounded by decent talent. He does leave the offensive haven in Texas, though, and he could be overvalued because he doesn't steal many bases. He's a 32-year-old coming off his breakout season.

Takashi Saito | Closer | Los Angeles Dodgers

2006 Output: The Dodgers lost star closer Eric Gagne to injury last season but didn't miss a beat as Saito was dominant in the closer role. For the season Saito had 24 saves and six wins to go along with just two losses in 78.1 innings pitched. He struck out 107 batters and finished with an ERA of 2.07.

Reason: Gagne's injury opened the door for Saito and he was nothing short of spectacular, allowing the Dodgers to avoid re-signing the oft-injured Gagne. Like many import pitchers, though, Saito's greatest ally might have been the league's unfamiliarity with him and his sly motion.

Early 2007 Forecast: Saito was dominant as the closer last season and could be one of the top closers in baseball now that he will be given the opportunity to be a closer for the entire year. As the closer for a talented Dodger team, he should get plenty of opportunities. As mentioned, he is a risk, however. Many Japanese hurlers have struggled during their second go-round. Closers are an unstable lot, so he's not worth risking a high pick on.

Chien-Ming Wang | Starting pitcher | New York Yankees

2006 Output: Despite a low strikeout total (76) Wang was the best pitcher on a veteran Yankees staff. On the season he won 19 games (tied for league lead with Minnesota Twins starter Johan Santana) and lost only six. He finished with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.31.

Reason: Wang wasn't spectacular and was fortunate to pitch out of a lot of jams to win some games. The Yankees offense was potent and Wang allowed the bats behind him to get him victories.

Early 2007 Forecast: Wang once again has plenty of offense behind him, so a high victory total is possible again. Fantasy owners should know not to draft solely for wins, though, because that's an unpredictable stat. He pitched his way out of a number of hairy situations, as mentioned, and an alarming trend developed. As the season wore on, his ERA steadily dropped, but his WHIP steadily rose. He won't strike out a lot of guys, so Wang has the potential to be a huge bust. He has good stuff, with a lot of question marks, you need two or three reliable pitchers before selecting Wang.

Kenny Rogers | Starting pitcher | Detroit Tigers

2006 Output: Rogers was the veteran ace the Tigers needed last season and was impressive throughout the playoffs, with or without the unknown substance on his hand. For the season Rogers went 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA and 99 strikeouts.

Reason: Rogers had an impressive season with the Texas Rangers in 2005, so a move to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park made him a low-risk pick. There is also the matter of whether or not Rogers is a cheater.

Early 2007 Forecast: The Tigers have quite possibly the best group of young pitchers in baseball, and Rogers could benefit from this. Without the stress of carrying the entire staff, Rogers can pitch within himself. At the age of 42, Rogers is on sudden decline watch, though. He can be fairly inconsistent, as he was in the first half of last season, and he may be watched closely for any signs that he's pulling some funny business. Rogers is a safe pick in latter portion of the draft, but he's a risk if he's taken any higher.

Others of Note

Justin Verlander | Starting pitcher | Detroit Tigers

(17-9, 3.63 ERA and 124 Ks)

Mark DeRosa | Second baseman | Chicago Cubs

(.296 BA, 13 HRs and 74 RBI)

Michael Cuddyer | Outfielder | Minnesota Twins

(.284 BA, 24 HRs and 109 RBI)

The best way to avoid drafting a fantasy bust is to draft players who are consistent. Guys who have been fantasy stars for multiple seasons can be trusted, and barring injury, will continue to impress. When selecting a high-risk player, one who could either excel or completely fall apart, the best bet is to not reach for them. Younger players have much more upside, but they also greater room for error. Older players often have a track record, but they are sometimes on the decline. Don't be afraid to cut ties with a player who struggles; however, give him time to prove himself before clicking the release button. While the draft is very important, fantasy leagues are also won and lost on free-agent decisions. Cutting the wrong player could haunt a team for the rest of the season, while adding a talented young prospect that explodes can put a team over the top.