Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Evaluating Keepers

January 12, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Steve Ungrey

In fantasy baseball, keeper leagues come in all shapes and sizes. Determining the value of your potential keepers can sometimes cause big headaches. To do so, first you need to take a few things into account.

As with any fantasy league, you had better be familiar with your league's rules. In this case, it's how they apply to keepers. A lot of leagues only allow members to keep, say, three players, or retain them for a certain number of years. Some leagues are full-retention leagues, which make it difficult for newcomers to become established; trades are often necessary to become competitive quickly.

In either kind of straight-draft league, the regulations might require you to give up a corresponding draft choice. Dynasty leagues may have limits on the number of players you can keep, but usually other factors determine whether a player is worth keeping. You generally look to keep players with below-market salaries or players with upside that don't eat up much salary-cap space.

If you're comfortable with the specifics of your league, you still need to consider other factors. You need to consider characteristics such as age, experience, injury history and team. Another major factor in keeper value is positional scarcity. This two-part buzzword is important but often overanalyzed. At a scarce position such as second base or catcher, only the elite performers are worth retaining.

If you hold players below this tier, you're likely throwing back a player with greater value just to fill a scarce position with merely adequate production. To weigh the value of keepers, analyze the rankings of this year's fantasy crop and ask yourself in which round (or for how much) would each of the players I'm pondering go?

Many of the components of a keeper often lead us to hold onto today's stars over those of tomorrow. Potential is alluring, but it isn't always realized. Each position has a class of players ("Definite Keepers") that in nearly all circumstances should remain on your team. After that, fantasy players should heavily take into account their league's rules, and subjectivity usually reigns. The list could certainly exceed the list of "Players to Ponder" depending on your league's roster limits. From the point-of-view of a fantasy leaguer in a limited-retention format, this is how the field shakes out.

Catchers

Definite Keepers

Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians (.316 BA, 16 HR and 93 RBI in 572 AB in 2006)

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (.347 BA, 13 HR, 84 RBI and 8 SB in 521 AB)

Players to Ponder

Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves (.333 BA, 24 HR and 93 RBI in 442 AB)
McCann exploded in 2006, earning the National League's Silver Slugger award at the position. He seems like a no-brainer, right? While he provided out-of-this-world production at catcher, it's fair to say that Atlanta never expected it. Unlike Mauer, McCann, 23, was not considered an elite prospect. He could have another fine season, but if he doesn't come close to last season's numbers, he hasn't justified the spot. At a cheap price he's a bargain, but otherwise he makes excellent trade bait. Those in full-retention leagues are pleased, too.

Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners (.291 BA, 18 HR and 76 RBI in 506 AB)
The Japanese import set an American League rookie record for catchers with 147 hits last season. Impressive, but as a 30-year-old backstop, he's no spring chicken. Johjima's diehard work ethic should allow him to continue his success, but with a year of film versus major-league stuff on file, opposing staffs should discover a way to attack him. His hype entering last season likely led to you spend more than necessary on him, making him no bargain.

First Basemen

Definite Keepers

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (.331 BA, 49 HR, 137 RBI and 7 SB in 535 AB)

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (.313 BA, 58 HR and 149 RBI in 581 AB)

David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (.287 BA, 54 HR and 137 RBI in 558 AB)

Players to Ponder

Lance Berkman, Houston Astros (.315 BA, 45 HR and 136 RBI in 536 AB)
Berkman hadn't had this good of a season since 2002, when he hit .291 with 42 homers and 128 RBI. In fact, 2006 was better, and there's reason to believe that he should continue to please. Houston brought in free-agent outfielder Carlos Lee as protection. Berkman is also a full-time first baseman now, making it easier for him to avoid the injury bug that had frequently bitten him in the outfield. He's a keeper in many formats, even though he isn't quite as bankable as the players listed above.

Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins (.321 BA, 34 HR and 130 RBI in 592 AB)
Dynasty leaguers may have themselves a gem; otherwise, questions surround the defending AL MVP. The organization thought that Morneau had a bright future a couple of seasons ago, but he struggled to get off the ground. In 2005 he hit .239 with 21 homers and 79 RBI in 490 at-bats. In fact, before liftoff last year, he struggled in April and May, hitting just .244 with 10 bombs and 36 RBI. Such a disappointing start actually forced some owners to send him to the wire. Morneau is worthy of keeper consideration, especially with a salary-cap format, but a better bet might be to trade high for a dependable player at another position. First base is deep enough to find another gem this year, maybe a rebounding player like the Texas Rangers’ Mark Teixeira.

Second Basemen

Definite Keepers

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies (.309 BA, 32 HR and 102 RBI in 658 AB)

Players to Ponder

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees (.342 BA, 15 HR and 78 RBI in 482 AB)
Cano certainly deserves consideration as a keeper. His numbers were outstanding when you consider that he missed six weeks with a hamstring injury. It's hard to expect Cano to repeat such a high average, but in a star-studded lineup, his impact in the other categories should make the 24-year-old worth the spot. It isn’t very often you get production like this from the ninth slot in the lineup, but such is the life of the Yankees. The return of outfielder Hideki Matsui from a broken wrist will probably bump Cano from a primo spot like third or sixth, where he found himself at times last year when he wasn’t hitting ninth, so his opportunities could be reduced.

Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants (.293 BA, 26 HR and 93 RBI in 498 AB)
With a career year (personal bests in dingers and RBI) from Durham, it's hard to argue the value he brought last year. At Durham's age, it's hard to repeat it. In a contract year, Durham parlayed his season into a nice two-year deal to remain in San Fran. Injury troubles have limited him to fewer than 500 at-bats for all four of his seasons with the Giants. With a bunch of aging veterans and role players in the lineup, don't expect Durham to do it again. Trade him.

Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins (.287 BA, 27 HR and 90 RBI in 611 at-bats)
Uggla was a very valuable pickup (or brilliant flier pick) last season. However, like the Marlins as a whole, his numbers, including 105 runs scored, were a total shock. Florida's Opening Day lineup featured more rookies than vets, and Uggla was not of the team's top prospects. Hard work earned the soon-to-be 27-year-old his place, and hard work should keep him there. Dynasty leaguers could have a bargain on their hands, but in limited-keeper formats Uggla represents high risk, so owners should welcome the chance to trade him.

Third basemen

Definite Keepers

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees (.291 BA, 35 HR, 121 RBI and 15 SB in 572 AB)

Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins (.339 BA, 26 HR, 114 RBI and 9 SB in 576 AB)

David Wright, New York Mets (.311 BA, 26 HR, 116 RBI and 20 SB in 582 AB)

Players to Ponder

Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs (.291 BA, 38 HR and 119 RBI in 594 AB)
The key here is the 594 at-bats. A-Ram struggled with injuries in 2004 and 2005, but he made sure to stay healthy enough to put up that stat line 2006. He picked a perfect time, because afterwards he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract and filed for free agency. With a fat five-year deal in place with the Cubs, will he be motivated? Will he stay healthy? Will Chicago's fortunes change because they spent all of that cash this offseason? Possibly, but because of the questions, Ramirez is a risk. See what you can get in a deal for him. At a below-market salary, he's still a nice option.

Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox (.283 BA, 30 HR and 94 RBI in 544 AB)
In 2006 Crede seemed to have finally lived up to expectations. In each of his previous three seasons, he never produced more than a .261 average, 22 homers or 75 RBI. Crede is arbitration eligible, so he could be motivated by the prospect of turning a big trick in free agency. However, this offseason the White Sox have made some moves that have them keeping one eye on the future, which should include third baseman Josh Fields, one of the team's top prospects. With third base potentially a deep position again, Crede appears to be trade fodder. A below-market salary would change your mind.

Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates (.344 BA, 6 HR and 85 RBI in 582 AB)
Sanchez was a great pickup last year, but depending on your league's default salary for free agents, Sanchez isn't likely worth the honor. The NL batting champ provided fantasy teams with little outside average. To contend you need power production from your third baseman, and Sanchez doesn't have it. Sanchez is 29, so his high average was likely an aberration as well.

Others of Note

Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies (.329 BA, 29 HR, 120 RBI and 117 runs in 602 AB)

Shortstops

Definite Keepers

Jose Reyes, New York Mets (.300 BA, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 122 runs and 64 SB in 647 AB)

Players to Ponder

Derek Jeter, New York Yankees (.343 BA, 14 HR, 97 RBI, 118 runs and 34 SB in 628 AB)
Most people would keep the 2006 AL MVP runner-up, and you can't blame them. Jeter usually delivers in at least two fantasy categories every year, thanks to the Yankees' lineup and his obvious talent. At 32, though, Jeter is exiting his prime. Most owners should look to retain Jeter, but because of his name value, his offseason trade value may never be higher. In keeper leagues, his salary may also be climbing to the point where it is no longer worth the investment.

Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles (.330 BA, 24 HR and 100 RBI in 648 AB)
Tejada is a proven performer, but his keeper value is somewhat in question. Playing 162 games for six straight seasons may be taking its toll. Tejada barely reached 100 RBI last year, and he fell short in 2005. With a number of intriguing (and younger) options available in the shortstop crop each season, it's understandable if you decide to throw him back and recast your line. Tejada is still a bankable player, though, so he deserves strong consideration as a keeper in the shallowest formats. The fact that the Orioles have done little to give him offensive support in the past two offseasons is what limits his upside.

Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins (.292 BA, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 119 runs and 51 SB in 633 AB)
Those in long-term keeper and dynasty leagues should have little trouble hanging onto Ramirez. In short-term leagues, however, exercise caution. Few questioned his raw talent, especially his speed. Much doubt lingered about how prepared Ramirez was for the majors, though. Last year he struck out 128 times, an embarrassing total for a leadoff hitter outside a bombs-away guy like Chicago Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano. His steals make him valuable, but a drop-off in the other categories, especially home runs, seems likely. Florida overachieved last year, and with a new manager it's uncertain whether or not they can repeat. If you don't have to forfeit a high-end draft pick, he remains an option.

Outfielders

Definite Keepers

Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (.305 BA, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 89 runs and 58 SB in 600 AB)

Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (.329 BA, 33 HR, 116 RBI and 15 SB in 607 AB)

Carlos Beltran, New York Mets (.275 BA, 41 HR, 116 RBI, 127 runs and 18 SB in 510 AB)

Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox (.321 BA, 35 HR and 102 RBI in 449 AB)

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs (.277 BA, 46 HR, 95 RBI, 119 runs and 41 SB in 647 AB)

Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners (.322 BA, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 110 runs and 45 SB in 695 AB)

Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians (.290 BA, 28 HR, 76 RBI, 134 runs and 22 SB in 655 AB)

Players to Ponder

Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves (.261 BA, 41 HR, 129 RBI and 117 runs in 107 AB)
Jones proved that his 2005 power surge (51 dingers) was no fluke, but he hurts you in average and doesn't help you in stolen bases. The breakout year made him a second rounder last year and isn't likely to go much lower this year. In that respect, you have yourself a keeper. If you overpaid for his services or can land a more diverse player in a trade, however, you ought to consider your options.

Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox (.315 BA, 44 HR and 120 RBI in 565 AB)
Dye has 2006 numbers that belong with the definites, but has a history that belongs with the rest of the field. He posted career bests in homers and RBI, and he hadn't approached that sort of line since 2000. His production was only worthy of a mid-to-late-round selection before last year. U.S. Cellular Field (Comiskey Park) is a hitter-friendly park and the White Sox's lineup lends great support, but don't expect Dye to put up those numbers again. Sell high in all formats.

Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays (.303 BA, 32 HR, 106 RBI and 17 SB)
After a promising rookie season in 2002, in 2003 Wells hit .317 with 33 homers and 117 RBI. Since then, he's been a pretty big disappointment. Coincidence, then, that Wells, a free agent after 2006, busted out again? Wells inked a seven-year, $126 million deal in December 2006. At 28, Wells is in his prime, so a reversion to pre-2006 form is unlikely. Rehashing such output, though, isn't a guarantee. In dynasty leagues, Wells should have excellent value because of his salary.

Carlos Lee, Houston Astros (.300 BA, 37 HR, 116 RBI and 19 SB in 624 AB)
Keeper leaguers may find it hard to let go of Lee, with good reason. A move to Minute Maid Park should ensure that Lee continues rack up bombs. He becomes one of two feared bats (Berkman being the other) for the Astros, a team that scored 735 runs last season, a total that placed them 12th in the NL. In long-term keeper leagues, though, Lee is not an ideal option. He turns 31 this year, and with his body type (6-foot-2, 240 pounds), the decline could come sooner than later. Lee is a talented hitter that should give good value this season, but if a move to Houston rings loudly with a league mate, see what you can get in a deal.

Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates (.286 BA, 35 HR, 109 RBI and 11 SB in 570 AB)
Bay is considered a five-tool player, but his tools were a little rusty last season. He posted career highs in homers and RBI, but a drop-off in steals was a disappointment. He struggled mightily at times last year to even make contact. A poor Pittsburgh lineup means he must always make the most of his opportunities, so perhaps the pressure is wearing on him. At 28, Bay is entering his prime. In salary cap leagues that means buy low.

Others of Note

Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees (.297 BA, 15 HR, 107 RBI, 98 runs and 30 SB in 548 AB)

Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies (.326 BA, 34 HR, 114 RBI, 119 runs and 10 SB in 602 AB)

Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (.317 BA, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 16 runs and 2 SB in 126 AB)

Starting Pitchers

Definite Keepers

Johan Santana, Minnesota Twins (19-6, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 245 K in 233.2 IP)

Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros (15-8, 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 168 K in 220.2 IP)

Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs (16-7, 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 210 K in 214 IP)

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals (15-8, 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 184 K in 221.2 IP)

Players to Ponder

Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays (16-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 132 K in 220 IP)
Halladay, 29, finally gave fantasy owners a full season. That's reason alone to consider Halladay's keeper value as shaky. He had averaged only 20 starts in the two seasons prior to 2006; he also missed a couple of starts at the end of last season with a forearm strain. His injury problems have to leave you worrisome. After showing promise as a strikeout pitcher three years ago, Halladay has also dialed back the velocity. A smart keeper leaguer would peddle him.

Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks (16-8, 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 178 K in 235 IP)
Webb earned the NL's Cy Young Award last year with a phenomenal season. He's just 27, so another bright season isn't out of the question. Keep in mind, though, that Webb is pretty much a one-trick pony. He features a split-fingered fastball that he throws the large majority of the time. He leaned on the pitch masterfully last year. If he struggles with the splitter at any time, though, so will his numbers. He did post a 5.00-plus ERA in two months last season. A cheap salary makes Webb a steal, but a trade could net you a dependable value at hitter.

Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees (19-6, 3.63 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 216 IP)
There are simply too many starting pitchers and too many uncertainties in regards to them to warrant keeping Wang. The AL's runner-up for the Cy Young Award tied for the league lead in wins, but any experienced fantasy leaguer knows that you don't depend on wins from a starter. Pitching for the Yankees should easily get him to double digits, but without that guarantee, his 76 strikeouts become hard to stomach. That WHIP and .277 BAA cast doubt upon his ability to post such a low ERA again, too. Trade him.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (17-9, 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 124 K in 186 IP)
In dynasty leagues, fantasy owners aren't likely to part with this promising righty. Short-term leagues might consider it, though. As mentioned, pitchers, especially young ones, are just too inconsistent from year to year. Verlander will be 24 when the season starts, so he still has a lot to learn. Plenty of AL teams have no doubt learned a lot about him. His strikeout total was very disappointing, considering that he can hit 100 mph on the radar gun. Look for him to increase that number but fall short of the benchmarks he set last season.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (12-14, 4.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 176 K in 191 IP)
There couldn't have been a more over-hyped starter heading into last season, so his numbers were certain to disappoint. They did, by a long shot. The phenom is still a must-hold in full retention and dynasty leagues, but his year-to-year value in short-term leagues was drastically overestimated. Buy low if given the opportunity, but if you're in a shallow league, this shouldn't be a difficult decision.

Others of Note

Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (10-8, 3.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 163 K in 144.2 IP)

John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves (16-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 211 K in 232 IP)

John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (13-11, 3.56 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 190 K in 217.2 IP)

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers (14-8, 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 202 K in 214 IP)

Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics (14-13, 4.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 176 K in 223 IP)

Chris Young, San Diego Padres (11-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 164 K in 179.1 IP)

Chris Capuano, Milwaukee Brewers (11-12, 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 174 K in 221.1 IP)

Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (16-8, 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 141 K in 204 IP)

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants (13-12, 4.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 179 K in 190.2 IP)

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (9-8, 4.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 145 K in 132.1 IP)

Closers

Definite Keepers

Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (47 S, 1.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 98 K in 73 IP)

Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (36 S, 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 95 K in 68.1 IP)

Players to Ponder

Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees (34 S, 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 55 K in 75 IP)
Rivera makes a solid keeper in a number of formats because he has been the most reliable reliever in the game for the last decade or so. A couple of potential trends deserve mention, though. Last season Rivera's strikeouts dipped alarmingly. His K rate (6.6 per nine innings) hadn't been that low since 1998 (5.3 K per innings), his second season as the Yankees' hammer. Rivera is 37, so at this stage it may be a sign of things to come. Rivera's name still carries a lot of weight, so he could net you more than he's worth in a trade.

Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres (46 S, 2.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 50 K in 65 IP)
For beginners, closers aren't ideal keepers. They usually only make an impact in one category, and that's saves. Last season Hoffman became the game's all-time leader in that category, but it took a lot of years to do it. He's 39 and doesn't contribute much in the strikeout category, making his impact not as profound as the most bankable closers.

Huston Street, Oakland Athletics (37 S, 3.37 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 67 K in 70.2 IP)
Street is undoubtedly one of the top young closers in the game, but in a short-term league, he doesn't provide the certainty that the top names offer. The 23-year-old blew 11 saves last year; bumps and bruises are a given with most young closers. With saves coming from the unlikeliest of places during the course of a season, look to keep a valuable hitter or starter before Street. In dynasty leagues and deeper long-term leagues, you can't part with him.

Others of Note

Billy Wagner, New York Mets (40 S, 2.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 94 K in 72.1 IP)

B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays (38 S, 1.37 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 86 K in 72.1 IP)

Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox (40 S, 4.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 80 K in 69.2 IP)

Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles (33 S, 2.73 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 51 K in 66 IP)

You should also know by now that hitters are more valuable than pitchers, especially closers, in keeper leagues. The reason? Hitters are simply more reliable year in and year out. That's why fantasy leaguers often take hitters over pitchers in the first four or five rounds of a single-year league, too.

Make sure that you're familiar with all of your league's rules regarding keepers. An avoidable error could handicap your team for years to come. Review rankings and projections to be certain that you aren't overvaluing a player. Keepers gain or lose value because of a number of factors, so be sure to note all of the pros and cons. Value consistency and experience over youth and fluke years. The overachieving flavor from last season could leave a foul taste in your mouth in this one.