Fantasy Football Draft Guide

AFC East 2006 Offseason Glance

June 16, 2006 @ 14:29:34

The 2005 season finished off the same as it had for the third consecutive year - with the New England Patriots on top. The Patriots, however, did not look as dominant as they had in past years and a late season surge by the Miami Dolphins almost knocked them out of the playoffs. In fact, outside of QB Tom Brady, the fantasy world shared in much misery from this team in 2005.

Much was made of the National Football Conference North being the worst division in the National Football League, but you could argue that the American Football Conference East was right up there with it. The AFC East boasted two of the five worst teams in the AFC and the Patriots would not have qualified for the playoffs if they weren't a division winner. However, it did have some fantasy gems but probably more busts such as RB Ricky Williams and Corey Dillon!

But there is hope for the upcoming season. The Dolphins finished last year on a tear, and their improvement at quarterback means they could be in position to challenge the Patriots' division dominance. The Buffalo Bills had one of the most talented defenses in 2004 and with a new coach there is always fantasy hope. The New York Jets are only one year removed from making the Divisional Round of the playoffs, where they were eliminated by the Pittsburgh Steelers on an overtime field goal. As for the Patriots, quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick might have reached that exalted level, where you can never really count them out, no matter the talent level surrounding them.

With so much competition in the division, there are some definite stars at the fantasy level. So without further ado, let's see who will help in your quest for your fantasy championship this year...

New England Patriots

The Patriots once again finished atop the AFC East but last year wasn't as easy as past years have been. They didn't seal up the division title until Week 15 and finished only one game ahead of the Dolphins. The Patriots also suffered their first playoff loss under Brady and Belichick, a 27-13 defeat to the Denver Broncos. However, Patriots' fans are quick to point out that the Patriots suffered from some questionable calls in the playoffs and they were in a good position to win the game as late as the third quarter. They didn't get the calls though, and they will have to come up with a different game plan for this upcoming season.

Their job will not be made any easier with the offseason loss of some key players and personnel. Defensive coordinator Eric Mangini left the team to become the youngest head coach in the league, signing on with division rival, the Jets. Wide receiver David Givens (Titans) left for what he hopes are greener pastures with the Tennessee Titans. Linebacker Willie McGinest (Browns) and place kicker Adam Vinatieri (Colts), both key members of the Patriots' Super Bowl-winning teams, left via free agency to the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts, respectively. And backup quarterback Doug Flutie, a New England legend from his Boston College days, finally decided to call it a career.

However, there is still a lot of room for optimism. Brady continued to prove that he is the centerpiece of this team and a fantasy stud. The team's leader on and off the field, he had another solid fantasy season as he was forced to shoulder more of the offensive load with running back Corey Dillon missing time with an ankle and calf injury. Brady threw for 4,110 yards, 26 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions.

Dillon ended up playing in just 12 games and was held under 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in his career. He finished the season with 733 rushing yards on 209 carries, 181 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. If he does suffer through another injury-plagued campaign, the Patriots drafted running back Laurence Maroney out of the University of Minnesota with their first-round pick, and he could easily find some significant playing time. He appears to be the Patriots' long-term answer at the position, though he will have to beat out Kevin Faulk (51-145-260-0), who is the current No. 2 running back. Either way, he is the future and if you are contemplating drafting Dillon, then you should consider Maroney as well.

Wide receiver Deion Branch didn't build a huge amount off his 2005 Super Bowl MVP award as many expected he would, although he did have the best season, statistically, of his career due to finally playing a full season. When all was said and done, he finished with 78 receptions for 998 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The Patriots may have a new No. 2 and one of the steals of the draft as wide receiver Chad Jackson fell to them in the second round. Some had him slated to go as high as the middle of the first round, and he should challenge for the No. 2 receiver spot on the depth chart. Wide receiver Reche Caldwell (28 receptions for 352 receiving yards and one touchdown) was signed from the San Diego Chargers, and he will battle with Jackson to replace Givens. Wide receiver Troy Brown (39-466-2) will also return for his 15th season with the Pats. Outside of Branch, there is no sure fantasy option, so training camp will be closely monitored.

Tight end Ben Watson (29-441-4) established himself as the team's top tight end option when Daniel Graham (16-235-3) missed time due to an injury. Graham is still right next to him on the depth chart though, and has been the subject of trade rumors this offseason. So far that's all they are; rumors - nevertheless, both are quality No. 2 fantasy tight ends at worst.

The Patriots elevated linebackers coach Dean Pees to the position of defensive coordinator, meaning the defense will likely be very similar to the one under Mangini. Linebacker Tedy Bruschi, the leader of the defense, should be available for the whole season after missing part of last season due to a stroke. Defensive end Richard Seymour received a new contract this offseason and remains one of the top defensive ends in the league. Safety Rodney Harrison is hoping to be back for the beginning of the 2006 season, although he is almost certain to miss the beginning of training camp, as he continues his rehab from damage to three ligaments in his knee. In the past, Belichick and company have been forced to use smoke-and-mirrors to conceal their defensive weaknesses and last season fantasy owners fell for it as too many key injuries hurt this team.

In one of the more surprising moves, the Patriots let place kicker Adam Vinatieri walk, failing to match an offer from the Indianapolis Colts, so they will now begin the season with uncertainty at the place kicker position. Martin Gramatica (abdominal) did not kick for a team last year and he will have big shoes to fill trying to replace Vinatieri. Fourth-round draft pick Stephen Gostkowski is considered a strong contender for the starting job. This position is not the usual warm and fuzzy fantasy owners have become accustomed to.

This offseason has once again seen great turnover player-wise and they enter the 2006 season with questions at all the key skill positions except one. But that one position (quarterback) might just be all they need. Fantasy owners hope not as they hope to see other positions contribute.

New York Jets

The Eric Mangini-era begins this season for the Jets. The defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots last year, the Jets made him the youngest head coach in the NFL and will hope he brings some of the Patriots' success to the Jets organization. Mangini replaced new Kansas City Chiefs head coach Herman Edwards, who had coached them since 2001.

Also leaving was defensive end John Abraham, who demanded a trade after being designated the team's franchise player. He was granted his wish and the team sent him to the Atlanta Falcons in return for draft picks.

With me-first players seemingly gone, Mangini will have to get to work rebuilding an offense that was among the worst in all the major categories last year. In total offense they ranked 31st in the league with 248 yards per game. Scoring offense was ranked 29th with an abysmal 15 points per game, and they allowed the third most sacks in the league. Unfortunately, Mangini is not an offensive-minded coach but he did bring in former Chargers quarterbacks coach Brian Schottenheimer as his new offensive coordinator. Fantasy owners should look for a style that goes in hand with what the Chargers and Patriots have done.

The Jets looked to improve that last statistic with the drafting of offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson. He should cover the left side of the line. The team parted with long-time center Kevin Mawae (Titans) after he missed most of last season with a triceps injury.

Who starts at quarterback for the Jets is one of the bigger question marks heading into the season. Chad Pennington (shoulder) played in only three games last season after sustaining a shoulder injury, although he didn't look particularly well in those three games, throwing for only 530 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. However, he may be the most talented quarterback on the Jets' roster and could be the starter come September. Bear in mind, however, in his seven year career with the Jets he has never completed a full season.

Quarterback Patrick Ramsey arrived from the Washington Redskins and he should be Pennington's backup, but he's in the running for the starting job. His last season in Washington saw him appear in only four games and throw for just 279 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He is a former first-round draft pick although he has failed to live up to that status and lost his playing time in Washington with the emergence of veteran quarterback Mark Brunell.

The team also drafted University of Oregon quarterback Kellen Clemens. He should make the team as the third-string signal-caller. The organization will give him an opportunity to win the starting job - though a long shot - but even if he doesn't earn it, he could be the quarterback of the future for the Jets.

This is one battle everyone should watch in training camp. If Pennington is back from his injury, it's his job to lose.

Curtis Martin (knee) will return for his 13th season. Last year was the first season in his career that he failed to gain 1,000 yards, although he only started 12 games. He finished with 735 yards on 220 carries and five touchdowns. It should also be noted that he has alternated one good year with one bad year during his Jets career so this could be a year to catch him.

Either backing him up or sharing time with him, will be running back Cedric Houston, who had 302 yards on 81 carries with two touchdowns last season. This team is opening up the running back battle and it's one in which Martin should win but he is coming back from a knee injury, is 33-years old and a reduced role has been brought up - at least in the media. If you draft Martin, think about handcuffing him to Houston.

The team hopes the signing of wide receiver/kick returner Tim Dwight (19 receptions for 332 yards and three touchdowns with the Patriots last season) will provide them with the deep threat to offset possession receivers Laveranues Coles (73-845-5) and Justin McCareins (43-713-2). Wayne Chrebet, a Jet for his whole career, decided to call it a career following another concussion, what is thought to be the seventh he has suffered. This wide receiver crew led by Coles is not one you're excited about.

Tight end Doug Jolley (29-324-1) didn't have the season many expected when the Jets signed him from the Oakland Raiders and he will be challenging Chris Baker (18-269-1) for playing time. Baker will return after breaking his ankle in Week 9 and missing the remainder of the year. Both players show fantasy promise in a new offense but based on their history, it's better to wait and see.

Place kicker Mike Nugent was good on 22-of-28 field goal attempts, although he missed both attempts from 50 yards. He should return as the Jets' starting place kicker.

Linebacker Jonathan Vilma is one of the top, young linebackers in the league and was a fantasy stud last year. The team will hope defensive end Kimo von Oelhoffen, a free agent signing from the Pittsburgh Steelers, can replace the departed Abraham. Linebacker Eric Barton will be returning from a season-ending biceps injury suffered in Week 7 last year. Defensive end Shaun Ellis provides some balance on the defensive line. But even with a strong defensive presence, the offense remains a big question mark and it could point to another disappointing season for the Jets. In the end, this defense had hope last season and went nowhere. With the losses of Abraham and CB Ty Law, this team does not show the fantasy hope, owners will look for.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills apparently decided to go back to the past in hopes of rejuvenating a team that, despite talent on both sides of the ball, underachieved in finishing 5-11. Legendary Bills coach Marv Levy returned to the team, although as vice president of football operations, rather than head coach. Levy moved quickly to replace head coach Mike Mularkey, who resigned after the Bills' sixth consecutive losing season. Levy brought in defensive coordinator Dick Jauron in hopes that Jauron can bring the defense back in line after a season in which they ranked among the worst in points allowed, rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed.

The team also lost their No. 1 wide receiver Eric Moulds (Houston Texans) and brought back former No. 2 receiver Peerless Price (Dallas Cowboys). He will hope to resurrect his career after unsuccessful stints in Atlanta and Dallas.

Finally, the Bills have an all-out quarterback battle on their hands. Former first-rounder J.P. Losman didn't show enough for the team to commit to him long-term and he will battle quarterbacks Kelly Holcomb and Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre's former backup Craig Nall for the starting job. Losman started eight games for the Bills last year (although he made appearances in five more) and threw for 1,340 yards, with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. Holcomb started the other eight games (with 10 total appearances) and threw for 1,509 yards, with ten touchdowns and eight interceptions. Nall had the easiest job in the world backing up Favre in Green Bay and he has only thrown 33 passes, completing 23 for 314 yards, with four touchdowns, in five seasons. The Bills must see something in him as they signed him to a three-year deal. Each quarterback will have the same chance of starting, although because of his experience Holcomb is probably the favorite to secure the job. Either way, this is a situation fantasy owners need to be aware of and monitor during training camp.

Running back is the one position with no question marks, as the team has former University of Miami running back Willis McGahee coming out of the backfield. McGahee ran for 1,247 yards on 325 attempts and hit paydirt five times. Because of his experience, running back Anthony Thomas, who in nine games split between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints last year rushed for 92 yards on 43 attempts, might have the edge over running backs Shaun Williams and Lionel Gates to back up McGahee. Bills fans are thrilled with Thomas as our McGahee as Thomas role should be merely a backup and breather role.

The wide receiver position will see a new No. 1 in town with the departure of Moulds. It isn't yet Price, as he returns to the team after catching only six passes for 96 yards in seven games with the Dallas Cowboys last season. He and the Bills hope that a reunion with Buffalo will turn around his career. On the other side of the field, wideout Lee Evans, who will likely be the team's No. 1, will try to improve on a season in which he caught 48 passes for 843 yards, with seven touchdowns. If Price can land the starting job, backing them up will be wide receivers Josh Reed (32-449-2) and Roscoe Parrish (15-148-1). If the quarterback play can come around, this duo could respectable.

After the release of veteran tight end Mark Campbell, tight end Robert Royal (18-131-1), who was brought in from the Washington Redskins, may have the early edge to start. But tight end Kevin Everett, a promising third-round draft choice last year who missed the 2005 season with a torn ACL, has a legitimate shot at the job. Either way, Buffalo's never been known for fantasy tight end production.

Linebacker London Fletcher, cornerbacks Terrence McGee and Nate Clements, safety Troy Vincent and defensive end Aaron Schobel all could give Buffalo one of the best defenses in the division. In addition to these players, linebacker Takeo Spikes, who some consider the heart of the defense, is returning from an Achilles' tendon injury and is expected back in time for training camp. Safety Donte Whitner was also drafted with the eighth overall pick in the draft and could be a future star in the making. Give a defensive mind like Jauron all these tools and Buffalo could become one of the most feared defenses in the league. However, let's take a wait and see approach but this could be a fantasy sleeper defense.

Place kicker Rian Lindell was 29-of-35 on his field goal attempts last year and he should remain the starting kicker this season.

If the defense can revert to 2004 form, the Bills have enough to make a quick turnaround. If they can get good, safe play from the quarterback position, they could be this season's 2001 Chicago Bears (who were the last team Dick Jauron took to the playoffs). Much rests on the quarterbacks and health on defense for fantasy owners to truly have faith in any Bills player.

Miami Dolphins

Finishing the season with six consecutive wins gave Dolphins fans reason to be excited for the upcoming season. Even with the 9-7 finish, the team still made some significant offseason moves to improve their team, and they should be the biggest challengers to the Patriots' division crown.

When the Dolphins heard Minnesota Vikings and their quarterback Daunte Culpepper (knee) were at odds, they began the process to bring him over, and they should finally have a solid starter at the position for the first time since Hall-of-Famer Dan Marino retired. With a solid running back and some dangerous weapons at his disposal, Culpepper will try to return to his 2004 form, when he threw for 4,717 yards, with 39 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. If he can duplicate that success, you could very well see the Dolphins playing in the 2007 Super Bowl. However, he is coming off a major knee injury and it remains to be seen if he will be the double-threat that he has been in the past. At least he will have a legitimate No.1 receiver in Chris Chambers, something he might need as evidenced by his lack of success last season without former Viking wide receiver Randy Moss.

The Joey Harrington experiment continues in Miami after the Detroit Lions got rid of the underachieving quarterback after four long seasons, and he could see some time early if Culpepper is not healthy after coming back from knee surgery during the 2005 season.

This is a dangerous team and once Culpepper's form is known, it should define whether this is a Super Bowl team or not. Culpepper should open the season as the unchallenged No. 1 quarterback. Last season for the Vikings he threw for 1,564 yards, with six touchdowns and 12 interceptions, before going down seven games into the season with damage to all three ligaments in his knee. If Culpepper is not ready to begin the season, Harrington should get the start. Harrington appeared in 12 games for the Lions last season and threw for 2,021 yards with 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Either way, if you draft Culpepper, you should back it up with Harrington at the least and more likely play the three headed quarterback game on your fantasy roster.

The team also learned that running back Ricky Williams will not be back for the 2006 season after another failed drug test. However, he will stay in professional football and play for the Toronto Argonauts of the Canadian Football League.

When Williams was suspended for the entire 2007 season, running back Ronnie Brown's value shot through the roof. New offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey brings to the Dolphins a run-first mentality, and with no one to share the backfield duties, Brown should improve on his rookie numbers of 207 carries for 907 yards and four touchdowns. Brown's new backup is expected to be Travis Minor (5-17-0) while Sammy Morris (16-58-1) could see a few more carries as the team's starting fullback.

Chambers is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver, and he was especially strong over the last half of the season. He finished off with 1,118 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. With Culpepper at quarterback, those numbers could increase. Wide receiver Marty Booker (39-686-3) should start on the opposite side of the field, while wide receiver Wesley Welker (29-434-0) could serve as the No. 3 receiver and primary kick returner. Rookie wideout Derek Hagan, out of Arizona State, has pleased the coaching staff and may have the edge for the No. 3 spot. The team may also feel that Welker would be better off focusing on his special team duties. In the end, Chambers is the only true value in high production with the question of whether or not Booker can be a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy receiver. The quarterback play will tell us that.

Tight end Randy McMichael (60-582-5) had a bit of a disappointing season, especially after signing a four-year contract extension with the Dolphins. He should provide Culpepper, or Harrington, with a valuable safety option until they are comfortable in the offense.

The Dolphins' defense has been one of the top AFC defenses this century, although they are starting to show their age. The entire expected starting defensive line, including defensive ends Kevin Carter and Jason Taylor and defensive tackles Keith Traylor and Vonnie Holliday, are all over thirty years old, with Holliday being the youngest at 30. Linebacker Junior Seau was released and linebacker Zach Thomas is closing in on 34 years of age, although he is still the team leader in tackles. If this group can manage one last hurrah together, with the offense they have, this could be their year.

Place kicker Olindo Mare will enter his 10th season with the Dolphins. He was 25-for-30 on field goal attempts last season and did not miss an extra point.

The Dolphins have high hopes for this season and should enter it as co-favorites for the division title. If the quarterback play can be solid if not spectacular they could field fantasy players for every skill position and defense.

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Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.