Knowing Your Opponent

July 14, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Fantasy football, while just a game, is still a competition and the goal of any competition should be to come out on top in the end. Fun should be had, but winning always makes it more fun.

In this article we will look at the ways of examining your opponent in order to give you an edge in not just competing but winning your league. This will involve looking at different ways to deal with your rivals and examine what their next move will be. This is crucial in order to give yourself the upper hand in any league.

Your Opponent

To borrow a line from The Godfather, "always keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer." As in any league you should always maintain a good relationship with your fellow owners, and the more you get to know them the more you know how they will react to trade offers, how they think, etc. Knowledge is key to predicting how your opponent will draft and trade.

The relationship you have with your fellow owners will also depend greatly on the type of league you are in. If your league is divided into divisions you will most likely be playing against your division rivals the most over the course of a season. Thus, it is crucial to know the owners and their teams' makeup to match up well against them.

Examining Your Opponent

One of the keys to winning is keeping tabs on all your opponents and their rosters during the course of the season. This should be done pre-draft, during the draft, during each week and if you are in a keeper league then during the course of the summer. If you can summarize what your opponents needs will be (if he needs a stud running back or wide receiver) then you can move to block him and continue to frustrate him.

Knowing your opponent's roster is crucial as you should then be able to not only improve your roster but keep them from getting the players they covet.

During some parts of the season, mainly during the draft it can be hard to keep track of rosters as they are undergoing major changes. There are numerous ways to get around this. Using a cheat sheet is one way to be able to find the best player available at your position. Having a computer is also very handy as there are numerous programs you can install, which will keep track of rosters for you in lieu of a pen and paper. You can store your cheat sheets with some of these programs and they can be a life saver sometimes. KFFL, of course, offers detailed, customizable cheat sheets for nearly any league format known to man - or woman, as we do have to respect the successful ladies in the industry!

Knowing the rosters during the draft can help you determine what your opponents will be targeting next. For example, if a fellow owner has drafted running backs the last two rounds you could assume he is going after a wide receiver or quarterback next. This is where draft programs come in handy.

Once you have the knowledge about your opponents now comes the application of it through drafting and trading.

Drafting

Some people believe that how you come out in your draft will determine whether you win or lose during the season. While this could be considered something of an overstatement (trading and picking up players off of waivers are a big part as well), the draft is still crucial to your success.

One of the more popular trends for owners is to get your starting running backs in the first two or three rounds. Running backs are generally the most valuable fantasy players as there are fewer of them than quarterbacks and wide receivers and they generally get the most touches of all the positions.

After taking a running back, many owners will look for his backup in the later rounds when the value is right for him.

For example, an owner could take New York Giants running back Tiki Barber in the first round and look for his backup, running back Brandon Jacobs in the later rounds. While Jacobs' value will not be as high for you, for this owner it will be very high.

You should not expect your starting running back to get injured but it is good to have yourself covered in case he does go down to injury. You should not reach for his backup though.

This begs the question, "When should I draft his backup?" One common approach is to draft the best player available in the first three rounds (excluding kickers, defense and tight ends) and fill out your roster. Once you have your core positions filled out – quarterback, running back and wide receiver – then you can look at taking backups.

Another consideration in drafting depends on the type of league you are in. If you are in a keeper league, players such as Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy Williams has more value than a player such as Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison, as they are both at opposite ends of their careers and the difference in their abilities is not that great. It is always good to keep one eye on the future when drafting as if you know one owner has two stud running backs who are nearing the end of their careers he might be looking for some young running backs, and if you can stockpile some, you should be able to get a trade that is of greater benefit to you.

Trading

Once your draft is over, trading is one of the next steps to success in fantasy football.

One big fault in trading comes when owners look just at the players they are gaining and not the ones they are losing.

As an example of this we will look at one instance where an opponent could gain a huge benefit in acquiring a quality backup. In one keeper KFFL league back in 2001, an owner had two great starting running backs in Ricky Williams (with New Orleans at the time) and Baltimore Ravens running back Jamal Lewis. He traded for Williams' backup, running back Deuce McAllister. After he had acquired his backup he would then trade Lewis for San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson.

This being a keeper league, his entire roster carried over to the next year, and he was set up perfectly with two stud running backs with  a quality backup. In addition, Williams was traded to the Miami Dolphins in 2002 giving the owner three stud running backs. Not a bad position to be in at all.

This example worked out perfectly for the owner, and although he couldn't have planned on Tomlinson working out so well, he did have a plan for the trade, mainly, acquiring Williams' backup.

One tactic that should be avoided when trading is not to trade within your division. Nothing can be more frustrating than trading away a player and having him lead a division rival to the title.

Trading is probably the hardest part of fantasy football to do successfully and can often times leave you frustrated. It is one thing to lose out on a player in a draft when you don't have him on your team but to have a good player already on your team and then get rid of him just in time to sink your championship hopes gives your opponents the satisfaction in outsmarting you.

Other Tips

Owners should always look to the waiver wire for potential starters or underachievers. You can usually find bargains of players who are slow to start. This is where it is good to know the psyche of your owners. Some will be trigger-happy and will be likely to get rid of a player without giving him a chance. For example, when Dallas Cowboys running back Julius Jones was drafted two years ago, many owners probably picked him up hoping he would rack up big numbers. However, Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells did not start Jones until the last seven games of the season. This could have prompted many owners to get rid of him as he did not have much value at this time. Jones went on to average 114.7 yards per game over the seven games he started. There are always bargains to be had looking at your opponents' roster and knowing how he or she thinks can help you to unearth them.

Conclusion

The tips and tactics discussed here can help you on your way to winning your league. Looking through your opponents' rosters is the biggest tactic used in order to succeed. Having a great grasp of your opponent's philosophy is invaluable in drafting and trading. Once you have analyzed their roster you can make the necessary adjustments to yours (looking at key backups, sleepers and injured players who are on the waiver wire), for success in the present as well as the future.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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