Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Second Half Stats: Inconsistent Performers

August 4, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Any fantasy football player can take a gander at a player's numbers from previous seasons or his projections for the upcoming one and say, "Hey, that cat would like pretty good on my squad," or, "I think I'll pass on that bum." It takes a dedicated competitor to pick through a player's performance with a fine-toothed comb and unearth the inconsistencies in the player's performance.

It'd be nice if you could take any second-tier receiver's projections, divide them by the number of games on the schedule and expect him to operate that way every week. If it was that easy, there would be no point in playing. Factors like injuries, the emergence or decline of teammates, changes in offensive philosophy, the schedule and other circumstances go a long way toward determining how your fifth-round choice did last year, as well as how he will do this year. Understanding what led to an increase or decrease in production during the course of a previous season can give you the edge on Draft Day. It may help you decide who to target, who to avoid and who to pursue in a trade down the road.

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Team	Pass Yds(Games 1-8)	Pass Yds(Games 9-16)	TDs(Games 1-8)	TDs(Games 9-16)	INTs(Games 1-8)	INTs(Games 9-16)	+ / -Pass Yds	+ / -TDs	+ / -INTs
Drew Bledsoe	DAL	2,019	1,620	13	10	6	11	-399	-3	+5
Jake Delhomme	CAR	1,893	1,528	14	11	8	8	-365	-3	0

Drew Bledsoe, Dallas Cowboys: Despite sitting at eighth on the all-time passing yards list, Bledsoe hasn't had the most stable career. He can be remarkably reliable one season and incredibly untrustworthy the next. Last season was sort of in between. He enjoyed a terrific first half and tossed at least one touchdown pass in all but one game. His production slipped as surprise wide receiver Terry Glenn began to tail off and injuries along with inconsistent play across the board took their toll. As a result, tight end Jason Witten took on more blocking responsibilities, which at times robbed Bledsoe of a dependable target. The immobile gunslinger was sacked nine more times in Games 9 through 16 versus Games 1 through 8, including 25 in the last five contests. The excessive pressure caused him to force balls into dangerous situations, which led to the spike in picks. This year the arrival of temperamental wideout Terrell Owens has some believing that Bledsoe is due for a huge upswing in production. While that's possible, Bledsoe may be in real trouble after the loss of Pro Bowl offensive guard Larry Allen. Left tackle Flozell Adams is attempting to return from an anterior cruciate ligament tear, and the Cowboys' free-agent additions to this group are, at best, average. It's boom or bust for Bledsoe this season.

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers: In his three seasons with Carolina, Delhomme has made it a habit of being merely adequate in one half of the season and spectacular in the other. Such was the case last season, except that this time the more impressive numbers came in Games 1 through 8. That coincided with the out-of-this-world production from his favorite target, wideout Steve Smith. With the deterioration of then-Panthers' running back Stephen Davis (knee) and the injury woes of DeShaun Foster haunting the running game as the season wore on, defenses realized that Delhomme-to-Smith was the only real weapon this offense had. Delhomme's downturn coincided with Smith's, and a loss to the Seattle Seahawks in the National Football Conference Championship game accentuated the team's need for a viable No. 2 receiver with a dependable running game. In the offseason the Panthers signed wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson and drafted running back DeAngelo Williams. In training camp, however, Smith (hamstring) is battling a hamstring injury. That situation requires attention, because it doesn't take a genius to see that as goes Smith, so goes Delhomme.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Team	Rush Yds(Games 1-8)	Rush Yds(Games 9-16)	TDs(Games 1-8)	TDs(Games 9-16)	+ / -Rush Yds	+ / -TDs
Clinton Portis	WAS	620	896	4	8	+276	+4
Rudi Johnson	CIN	681	777	2	10	+96	+10
Willis McGahee	BUF	790	457	4	1	-333	-3
LaMont Jordan	OAK	499	526	9	2	+27	-7

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: Portis really flourished in his role as featured back last season, and he really came on in the second half. It helped that Portis faced some cupcake run defenses in Games 9 through 16, as opposed to several of the top units in Games 1 through 8. It's also because opposing teams wised up to the fact that quarterback Mark Brunell and receiver Santana Moss had some serious deep-ball chemistry going on, which loosened up the defense underneath. Portis has really started to become comfortable running for head coach Joe Gibbs. It may take a little adjusting, but he should reap the benefits of newly hired associate head coach-offense Al Saunders' schemes as well. Washington brought in some other wideouts (Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd) to take the heat off Moss, which should open up the lanes for Portis, who is back down to 210 pounds - his playing weight during his two successful years with the Denver Broncos. There's plenty of reason to think that Portis can parlay his big 2005 second half into bigger things in '06.

Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: While quarterback Carson Palmer (knee) was a steady producer throughout the '05 season, Johnson didn't really get in on the end zone celebrations until the second half rolled around. Attribute much of that to Palmer's unparalleled success in Games 1 through 8, which caught some teams, and fantasy owners, by surprise. After opposing defenses understood what sort of threat they faced each week (and saw that the Bengals were willing to pass quite often inside the 10-yard line), it became a pick-your-poison scenario, similar to the offense of the Indianapolis Colts. Cincinnati has really benefited from sensational offensive line play, and the unit is only improving. On top of that, in his four-year career Johnson has typically been more of a threat to score touchdowns after the midway point of the season. This season could be interesting: Rudi is more fit this year and has declared that he's ready to handle the load until Palmer is back to full speed. Opposing coaches know what Palmer is capable of, but they also understand that he may play with tentativeness. Johnson will look to boom in the first half this year, but it could be bust. Regardless, when Palmer is finally up to par, defenses will once again be uncertain, and Johnson should be in store for another solid second half.

Willis McGahee, Buffalo Bills: You would think that the player who at has declared himself the best back in the league would at least be a little more consistent, if not more dominant. Then again, it's not entirely his fault. (It never is.) In the early portion of his career, McGahee has played behind one of the worst O-lines in football, and it has become progressively worse. McGahee quite often struggled to find any daylight in an offense that wasn't the most adept to begin with. At quarterback the Bills flip-flopped more than most politicians, and that inconsistency at the position took its toll. This O lacked the threat of a passing game - and it lacked leadership. It didn't help that one four-game stretch in the second half the schedule included games against the Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots (who were much improved against the run then) and Denver Broncos. The atrocious second half may have forecasted what's to come in '06: The line, if anything, may have become worse, and Buffalo still hasn't settled on a passer. This unit is in flux, and McGahee owners may be the victims.

LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders: Fantasy owners had plenty of reason to be optimistic about Jordan's first opportunity as the unquestioned starter in the backfield. Jordan made them happy - to a point. Jordan put together a first half that was almost too good to be true. However, if you had to depend on him in the fantasy playoffs last year, you were lost. In what was supposed to be a high-flying, dynamic offense, Jordan stood out when he rushed for seven touchdowns and scored twice more on receptions. Former team quarterback Kerry Collins and wideout Randy Moss were supposed to add the long ball to the O's repertoire, but it was merely the illusion that fans saw. Nagging injuries (or worse) to receivers like Moss and a so-so O-line could take some of the blame. It became obvious that Collins was merely the error-prone passer he had proven to be the season prior with the New York Giants, and from then on out it was eight-man fronts - or worse - for Jordan. A switch to quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo didn't improve the situation. Sprinkle some tougher run defenses in there, and it's a poor recipe. Were Jordan's poor stats in Games 9 through 16 foretelling his '06 outlook? New head coach Art Shell plans to improve line play, but that sort of thing takes time. Some Raiders seem to think that new quarterback Aaron Brooks is just the offense needs. Did they see him play for the New Orleans Saints? Did you?

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Team	Rec Yds(Games 1-8)	Rec Yds(Games 9-16)	TDs(Games 1-8)	TDs(Games 9-16)	+ / -Rec Yds	+ / -TDs
Plaxico Burress	NYG	656	558	5	2	-98	-3
Chris Chambers	MIA	417	701	3	8	+284	+5
Keenan McCardell	SD	444	473	6	3	+29	-3
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	387	495	3	5	+108	+2

Plaxico Burress, New York Giants: Burress is the poster child for inconsistency, his career littered with fluctuating performances. His first season with the Giants was no different. In Games 1 through 8 Burress showed New York that he was quite comfortable with running deep routes and quarterback Eli Manning, which led to some gaudy statistics. Despite a low completion percentage during that stretch (51.6 percent), Manning was on fire. However, in the latter part of the season the signal-caller from Ole Miss began forcing throws to Burress, which defenses recognized, and Manning started to look in the direction of veteran wide receiver Amani Toomer as a result. With a schedule filled with defenses that were solid against wide receivers or are much improved, Plax may find that his downslide could continue. However, it's usually a safe bet that Plax will thrill his owners in one half of the season and let them down during the other. If Burress comes flying out of the gates again, try to peddle him; if he starts slowly, attempt to acquire him from another owner.

Chris Chambers, Miami Dolphins: Chambers has been unfortunate for most of his career: He's had to toil in relative obscurity because his talent was often wasted on quarterbacks like Jay Fiedler. He enjoyed the fruits of running back Ricky Williams' labor for a couple of years, but without a passer to get it to him, what's the point? The smaller (5-foot-11, 210 pounds) Chambers has still been able to succeed despite such adversity due to his physicality. Last year the offense entered the season with a new coach, new philosophy, new signal-caller, an unproven rookie starting at running back and another back who had taken off a year to, uh, study medicine. Naturally, the odds weren't in Chambers' favor, but when this ship set sail, relying on the dual-back threat of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and a willingness to take risks, it really took off. Chambers also essentially became unstoppable. Is more in store for '06? The team comes in with a new comfort level on offense, and despite no Ricky, Brown has a year under his belt. The only noticeable change is at quarterback, but Daunte Culpepper can only be considered an upgrade. Is this the year Chambers really lets loose? An early adjustment period may be necessary, but look for bigger things this season.

Keenan McCardell, San Diego Chargers: There are certain benefits to playing alongside the best tight end in fantasy football and arguably the best back in the game as well. One is, if you're a wide receiver, you can probably enjoy one-on-one coverage quite frequently. McCardell learned that last year in his first full season with San Diego. Scoring-wise, he was aware of it a bit more in Games 1 through 8 than he was in Games 9 through 16. Last year McCardell proved to be the only reliable outside target in the red zone, where five of six first-half scores occurred. Eventually other wideouts like Eric Parker and Reche Caldwell stepped up their game to make somewhat of an impact. McCardell is also no spring chicken. He has started to show signs of his age. At 36, he can't really make the impression that he could when he was younger, and he was always more ideally suited to be a No. 2 receiver anyway. Quarterback Philip Rivers finally gets his chance to take the reins, so although he'll need to rely on McCardell's experience, it's time for Rivers to usher in the new guard. With the offense in transition, don't expect a similar hot start from McCardell. Perhaps it's unreasonable to expect anything more than average all season.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: Who wouldn't to play receiver in Cincinnati's offesnse? With quarterback Carson Palmer running the show, running back Rudi Johnson carrying the ball and wide receivers Chad Johnson to draw the coverage, what's not to love? Housh reaped the benefits last year. In this third year, he put together his finest season, and that was despite missing two games (both in the first half). His absence plus Chad's dominance made for a slower going in Games 1 through 8. As Games 9 through 16 rolled around, T.J. was healthy, Henry was emerging and the offense was clicking. Houshmandzadeh enjoyed the freedom that single coverage provided and took full advantage, becoming nearly as dangerous as his starting counterpart. No matter how much optimism there is, with uncertainly surrounding Palmer's status heading into the season, "precautionary" is a word you'll probably hear an awful lot, which means fewer opportunities for these talented wideouts like Housh. Once things are in order, another stellar second half may be in order.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Team	Rec Yds(Games 1-8)	Rec Yds(Games 9-16)	TDs(Games 1-8)	TDs(Games 9-16)	+ / -Rec Yds	+ / -TDs
Tony Gonzalez	KC	376	529	1	1	+153	0
Heath Miller	PIT	211	248	6	0	+37	-6
Randy McMichael	MIA	270	312	4	1	+42	-3

Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez had been the gold standard at the tight end position for a number of years, but those days are certainly over thanks to the presence of another former hoops star in the same division. Tony G. hasn't always been the most consistent performer from one half of a season to another. In Games 9 through 16 owners didn't see an increase in scoring, but he was more consistent with his yardage output, beginning with Week 7. From then on he tallied at least four catches or 51 yards in every contest except one. Week 7 was right about the time that owners of tailback Larry Johnson rejoiced, because backfield mate Priest Holmes suffered his season- and perhaps career-ending neck injury. Quietly, that's when Gonzalez stepped it up. Although Johnson is a solid receiver, the Chiefs didn't rely on him as a pass-catcher the way they Holmes, which meant there were more balls to spread around. With Holmes on the PUP list this year, a similar scenario should be in store. The only thing standing in the way of a productive Gonzalez is new head coach Herman Edwards, who prefers to pound the ball in the running game and play a conservative passing game. Oh, and 11-time Pro Bowl left tackle Willie Roaf decided to retire. They wouldn't ask Gonzalez to stay in and block again this year - would they?

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers: Miller had a fascinating rookie season from a statistical point-of-view. How he managed to catch six touchdowns in the Games 1 through 8 and none in Games 9 through 16 is quite remarkable, isn't it? There's a simple explanation. No one expected Miller to be much of a focal point in an offense that has historically relied on the run... and then the run, the run and the run. Last year offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt proved that he knows exactly how to manipulate what the opposing defense is thinking, however. With bruising back Jerome Bettis missing the first four games of the season with a calf injury, the Steelers needed a different way to punch it in when they were close to paydirt. Four of Miller's six scores were inside the 10, and all came in the red zone. When Bettis finally got on track (eight touchdowns in the final eight games), Miller took a backseat. He was still a part of the offense, and the team began using him as a deep threat quite well (he averaged 3.8 yards more per reception in the second half), especially in the playoffs. After a storybook ending, Bettis rode off into the sunset, leaving the offense without its No. 1 option at the goal line. Perhaps indications in '06 are that Miller can count on seeing a few more balls come his way when the team is ready to punch it in.

Randy McMichael, Miami Dolphins: McMichael has sometimes been one of the more overlooked tight ends in fantasy football, but in his four years he has been a decent value, no matter how poor the offense around him is. Last season was no different, although after scoring touchdowns in each of the team's first four games, he appeared to be on pace for a career year. He kept up the pace in the yardage department, but for some reason he found the end zone just once the rest of the way. Two things jump out when attempting to determine what happened. One, the end of McMichael's touchdown streak coincided with the return of running back Ricky Williams' return from a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Head coach Nick Saban was only too happy to try to work Williams into the mix with rookie backfield mate Ronnie Brown. Two, soon after, the aforementioned blow-up of wideout Chris Chambers took opponents by storm. You have to go to the hot hand. Williams is no longer around, which should mean a more involved McMichael. New quarterback Daunte Culpepper (knee) is no stranger to playing in an offense that throws to the tight end Examining the numbers shows that perhaps McMichael can enjoy a better season overall in '06.

PLACE KICKERS

Player	Team	XP Att/Made(Games 1-8)	XP Att/Made(Games 9-16)	FG Att/Made(Games 1-8)	FG Att/Made (Games 9-16)	Kick Pts(Games 1-8)	Kick Pts(Games 9-16)	+ / -XPs	+ / -FGs	+ / -Kick Pts
Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	18/18	12/12	13/17	7/13	57	33	-6	-6	-24
John Carney	NO	11/11	11/11	14/19	11/12	53	44	0	-3	-9

Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland Raiders: "Seabass" is definitely familiar with inconstancy from one half of a season to another. In four of his six years in the league, he has put up significantly fewer (23, on average) points in Games 9 through 16 than he has in Games 1 through 8. So is this his fault, or his team's? It's been a little of both. There's a reason that the Al Davis offensive model isn't copied around the league. It's very up-and-down, hit-and-miss, all-or-nothing. In the first half of '05, for instance, the offense scored 178 points. In the second half, that number dipped to 105. As mentioned, quarterback Kerry Collins and receiver Randy Moss were not the saviors Oakland folks had hoped. Janikowski can only kick extra points and field goals when his team is giving him the opportunities. When the kicker hits 76.5 percent of his field goals in the first half and only 53.8 percent in the second, that's when he needs to take a long look in the mirror. It's not the first time that accuracy has been a problem for Janikowski, and it probably won't be the last. New quarterback Aaron Brooks may bring some initial excitement to the boys wearing silver and black, but look for a big flameout before the season is finished.

John Carney, New Orleans Saints: Carney has been around the block. He's a 42-year-old veteran who's put together some remarkably consistent seasons. There have also been a few bumps in the road. There was the second-half fall-off of '01, when he went from a 95.5 percent kicker on 22 field goal attempts in the first half to one that hit only 6-for-9 attempts in the second. Similar drop-offs have occasionally haunted Carney, but a strange thing happened last year: was a good bit more accurate in Games 9 through 16 (91.7 percent) than in Games 1 through 8 (70.0 percent), yet he put up fewer points in the second half. How does that happen? Well, the Saints offense was not exactly a stable unit. After Hurricane Katrina, the team was rattled from the word "go." It lost star tailback Deuce McAllister (torn ACL) for the season in Week 5. It became mistake-prone passer Aaron Brooks' job to compensate, a task he couldn't handle well, and on top of that he was benched for the final three games in the second half of the season. It's no wonder the team put up only 110 offensive points during that stretch. Carney had fewer opportunities, but he was fortunate to make the most of them. Quarterback Drew Brees (shoulder) should be more reliable, but doubts surround him because in the offseason he required surgery to repair a torn labrum rotator cuff. McAllister is attempting to return from said injury, and rookie running back Reggie Bush, although exciting, is still an unknown commodity. On top of that, new head coach Sean Payton is installing his vastly different offensive system. Owners can understandably have reservations about drafting the New Orleans kicker this season.

Overall numbers, much like the Raiders, always look good on paper, but it's what the educated fantasy owner does with those numbers that allows him or her to excel. Evolving situations, changes to the staff, the effectiveness of one's teammates, upcoming opponents as well as injuries within the offensive unit can have a huge impact on an individual's opportunities and performance, especially from one half of the season to the other. Identify the trends from last year, comprehend what they mean for this one and you'll be better off than your competition.