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Fantasy Baseball and MLB News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Fantasy Baseball: Preparing for the trade deadline

July 16, 2008 @ 15:16:15

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

The trade deadline is one of the more emotional times of the year for baseball fans. As July 31 approaches, expect the rumor mill to heat up regarding potential deals. The deadline is usually a good litmus test for how teams view themselves for the rest of the season. If they trade away one of their marquee players, let's say a former Cy Young Award winner, it is a good sign they are planning for next year. However, if they pick up said pitcher, it gives fans a reason to rejoice and believe in October baseball.

Perhaps more importantly (especially for those fans whose teams trade away stars) is the fantasy impact the trades have. From moving to a more hitter-friendly stadium to playing with a better offense, there are plenty of ways these deals can make an impact on your fantasy lineup.

We got who? Sweet ... but now what?

Already we have seen two blockbuster deals this month. The first was initiated by the Milwaukee Brewers, as they acquired starting pitcher CC Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians for outfielder Matt LaPorta and other prospects. The Brewers' division rival, the Chicago Cubs, had something in the works as well; they picked up oft-injured starting pitcher Rich Harden from the Oakland Athletics.

Sabathia has compiled an 8-8 record with a 3.67 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 137 1/3 innings this year. He has been a beast both home and away (though not in the wins department), which signals his jump to the NL might not change his fantasy value much. He was already an elite fantasy pitcher. However, he joins a team that is now 52-43 and left a club that is now 41-53; it has been reflected in his first two starts, both wins.

Harden could be a different case. The Victoria, B.C., native has been lights out this year (2.19 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and has managed to stay healthy enough to pitch more innings than he did in the last two years combined. However, one worrisome sign comes up.

The righty's ERA and WHIP jump from 1.83 and 1.06 points, respectively, away from McAfee Coliseum to 2.81 and 1.34. Harden blew away hitters in his first start for the Cubs, against the San Francisco Giants. What's the problem, then? He has owned San Fran in five career starts (2-0, 0.68 ERA, 0.79 WHIP), so that outing wasn't unexpected. In his career, Harden has a 4.01 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the road. However, he has jumped from a team with a poor offense to a club with one of the best, so expect a bump in his win total.

As you can see, there are quite a few factors that go into judging the value of fantasy players as they shift organizations or leagues: splits, team situations, ballparks and the potential to play for a contender.

The views of moves from AL- to NL-only leagues, and vice versa, will differ completely, though. Obviously, if you are in an AL-only league, the effects of the Sabathia and Harden trades aren't much different from those in mixed leagues (assuming your league doesn't drop traded players from the league pool). If you are in an NL-only league, though, two elite (potentially in Harden's case) starting pitchers recently appeared on the market. Now is the payoff for all those months you held on to your high waiver priority or your FAAB dollars.

Much of the same applies to hitters; splits and the kind of park they are moving to should give an indication of their prospects. Moving to a better lineup should help their output. If a player jumps from the Seattle Mariners' terrible offense to that of the New York Mets - say a player such as outfielder Raul Ibanez - it gives him more value. They should have more protection in the lineup and see more pitches to hit. There should also be a greater chance for RBIs and runs.

These trades also bring the opportunity for prospects and other players who weren't major players with their former teams to succeed in expanded roles.

The best example thus far might be starter Sean Gallagher, who arrived in Oakland as part of the Harden deal. The A's insisted he be included in the trade, with good reason. He was one of the Cubs' best prospects and has a career 2.77 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 89 minor league contests, including 88 starts. He fanned a batter an inning, too. His move to a pitcher-friendly park plus his debut for Oakland (seven innings, two earned runs, seven K's in a win) suggest that he's an intriguing addition in most formats.

Others who could benefit, although to lesser extents, are future stud LaPorta (if he receives a September call-up) and a couple of new A's, outfielder Matt Murton and utilityman Eric Patterson.

Potential deals

Lions, Tigers and closers ... oh my

Relief pitchers are often the most traded players at the deadline. One name stands out among the others as a potential trade target this year: Colorado Rockies closer Brian Fuentes.

Fuentes, a lefty, has racked up 14 saves and a 3.41 ERA working as the Rockies' closer this year. He also is striking out batters at a rate of one per inning. Even more impressive is that just over half of his innings have come in the hitter-friendly Coors Field, where he has still been respectable (seven saves, 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP).

The Rockies hope relief pitcher Manny Corpas is primed to take back his role of closer. If Fuentes is moved, it could lower his value significantly. The majority of teams looking to snag Fuentes are already set at closer and view him as a solid left-handed setup option. Most of Fuentes' fantasy value would be gone. On the other hand, Corpas would likely see his value jump substantially. Corpas has turned his season around, and don't forget he had 18 saves after the break last year.

Two possible closers to move could be the Athletics' Huston Street and the Washington Nationals' Jon Rauch. Athletics general manager Billy Beane has never been shy to move a closer and has some solid arms already in reserve. The value of Rauch, a tall righty, is sky high thanks to admirable performances as setup man interim and closer. In each case, make sure to scout out the potential replacement for each player.

Beasts of burden

What about other starters, those grunt workers who eat most of the innings and are fantasy workhorses. With Sabathia and Harden off the market, teams looking to acquire that power arm could find it north of the border.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher A.J. Burnett has been one rumored target, with the Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals mentioned as possible destinations. The talented righty has racked up a 10-8 record with a 4.96 ERA this year, not exactly setting the world on fire, but teams appear to be attracted by his nasty stuff. That stuff was on display Sunday, July 13, when he struck out eight and gave up just one run in 8 1/3 innings against the New York Yankees.

Depending on where he lands, Burnett could receive a bump in value. However likely it is he ends up with either team, it's important to analyze the advantages and disadvantages. Like it should be for the previously mentioned starters, it should benefit Burnett to move to the slightly more pitcher-friendly NL, which has no designated hitter. Joining the Phillies would mean pitching in a more hitter-friendly park, but he could also get some of the best run support in the league. A move to St. Louis would mean a little less run support, but the new Busch Stadium has favored pitchers. Burnett would also get to work with Dave Duncan, perhaps the best pitching coach in the game. As well, a change in venue might do wonders to clear Burnett's head from the distractions in Toronto.

Those pesky hitters

Looking at possible bats on the move, Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday is arguably the biggest name on the market. There are a few reasons why this might not happen, but if it does, the fantasy impact would be substantial.

Holliday's career average away from Coors Field (.277) is 87 points lower than at home (.364). In addition, in his career, he has hit a home run every 15.8 at-bats at home; that number jumps to 30.7 away from Coors. A move out of Colorado could skewer Holliday's fantasy value, especially considering Holliday was likely a first-round pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates corner outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady are two more possible trade chips. Bay is hitting at a .287 clip with 19 home runs and 53 RBIs and could fetch a substantial return on the trade market. Multiple teams are looking for a power-hitting outfielder, and the main hold-up could be the Pirates' asking price. Nady is having a career year and might be a cheaper alternative to Bay. The former New York Met is hitting .321 - 42 points above his career average - and has slugged 12 homers.

Their fortunes could change significantly with a move. Nady has a .340-7-31 line away from home, suggesting a trade would boost his value, while Bay is hitting significantly worse on the road with a .268-5-13 line. The Pirates have, somewhat surprisingly, featured one of the top offenses in the majors. A move to a contender with a lesser lineup could reduce these players' chances for success, too.

What to consider moving forward

As the trade deadline approaches, don't worry extensively about potential deals. There are always rumors out there; whether they come to pass is another thing.

If you do own a player who looks set to be moved - Fuentes' owners take note - assess the potential outcomes and determine whether they favor his fantasy value. For instance, it might not be a bad idea to dangle Fuentes around the league to gauge interest. Also remember to survey players who might gain playing time if others are dealt.

Finally, trust your ability to judge the situation. Examine the indicators like those listed above and judge potential deals. If you need additional help when reacting to a situation, KFFL publishes a Breaking News Analysis every time big news, such as a trade, goes down. KFFL is always around to give sage fantasy advice.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.