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Fantasy Baseball: Diamond Market - Falling

April 9, 2008 @ 05:35:43

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

Fantasy baseball waivers and discarded fantasy baseball players can make or break a season. You may have adjusted your fantasy baseball cheat sheets over and over during spring training. If your team remains the same after opening day, though, you will probably have trouble competing in your rotisserie baseball league. When is it time to give up on your fantasy baseball sleepers? Which players are worth retaining? KFFL.com's Diamond Market series gives you the fantasy baseball tips and advice you need to sort through the masses quickly.

Key

Discard - Drop player (in most circumstances)

Stash - Hold player if roster space is available; consider dropping if trend continues

Hold - Do not drop player (in most circumstances)

Catchers

Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

Twenty-one home runs, 81 RBIs; 19 home runs, 71 RBIs; 23 home runs, 93 RBIs; 20 home runs, 90 RBIs; those are the totals Posada has finished with over the past four seasons. He may be hurting your team right now (.176 average, two RBIs), but don't look for that to last too long. What is more worrisome is the sore shoulder that has seen him start a game at designated hitter this year, and could see him land on the disabled list for the first time in his career. Even if that does happen, you have your DL spot for a reason. Don't consider dropping Posada.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners

Mariners fans are still waiting for Johjima's prolonged April Fools joke to end. After two hits Tuesday, April 1, Johjima has gone on a 19 at-bat hitless streak. His current line reads .080 batting average, one RBI and one run. This probably has fantasy owners pulling their hair out. They shouldn't worry too much as the bulk of his cold streak came at Camden Yards where he is just a .189 career hitter. Don't panic on Johjima as he is still too good of a hitter to consider dropping, but keep him on the sidelines for now if you can.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

First Basemen

None

Second Basemen

None

Third Basemen

Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox

A big-name player has a career year in the final year of his contract. He takes the big money in the offseason and then goes on to stink up the joint with a .200 average and just one run through his first 30 at-bats. This year's case appears to be Lowell. There is some promise in his future however. He is back at Fenway Park this week where he hit .373 with 14 of his 21 home runs and 73 of his 120 RBIs last year. The Red Sox are also coming off a hellacious road trip that saw them travel through three different countries to begin the season. Keep a hold of Lowell, and he should get things going pretty soon.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Shortstops

Michael Young, Texas Rangers

Young hit just .215 with 14 RBIs in April last year, a number similar to what he has hit to start off this season. A .207 average might be hurting your fantasy team, but he finished last year hitting .315 with 94 RBIs and 80 runs. This should tell you that making any rash moves regarding Young is not something that should be done. Those owners that showed patience with him were rewarded. Follow their lead and hang on to him as he is still a solid shortstop.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Outfielders

Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates

Some owners might have thought his .247 average last year was just a blip, but Bay's start to 2008 has them wondering if that was the real Jason Bay. Through his first 22 at-bats, he is hitting .182 with four runs and only one extra-base hit. This is new for a hitter that typically hits better in April (.281 career average this month). For now, it may be frustrating, but hang on to him. It is just six of 162 games and Bay should come around, especially if the other Pirates hitters continue to hit as they have.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Franklin Gutierrez, Cleveland Indians

Three hits in three at-bats, including a three-run homer, on opening day had owners rejoicing. Since then Gutierrez has managed just one hit in his last 23 at-bats. He shouldn't lose his starting spot, but it might be time for fantasy owners to discard him. He was never more than a mediocre option in mixed leagues and his .154 average surely isn't helping things on your team. Unless you are in an AL-only league, drop him from your roster.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Discard

AL-only: Hold

Brad Wilkerson, Seattle Mariners

A borderline fantasy player at best, Wilkerson has just two hits in his 21 at-bats on the season. His power (the only real quality he brings to the table) has also been absent as neither of those hits went for extra bases. If you own Wilkerson in any mixed leagues, now would be a good time to drop him. If you are in an AL-only league, move him to the bench.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Discard

AL-only: Stash

Designated Hitters

None

Starting Pitchers

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

His minor league start Tuesday, April 8, did not go as hoped as Liriano allowed three runs in just four innings. The poor appearance creates an uncertain situation as the team might be more cautious in bringing him up to start this Sunday, April 13. Still, injuries could force their hand if starter Kevin Slowey (biceps) is unable to go. Owners who drafted Liriano should be prepared for this, so don't make any hasty decisions regarding Liriano. Hang on to him in leagues of all kinds as his upside is still too good for him to be dismissed.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers offense has struggled out of the gate, which has put a premium on their pitching staff keeping opponents off the board. Billingsley has yet to do that this year. He made his first start of the season Tuesday, April 8, and was knocked around for four runs and five hits in just 2 1/3 innings. The 23-year-old still has too much talent to be discarded in all leagues, and this was just one start. Hang on to him in all leagues unless you are in desperate need in shallow setups.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Phil Hughes, New York Yankees

Like Billingsley, Hughes is a young pitcher that has been knocked around a bit to start the season. In nine innings pitched this year he has given up five runs, 10 hits and four walks. His strikeouts (six) are about the only thing fantasy owners will be happy with. Still, Hughes has too much talent, and it is too early for you to get rid of him. Even if the ERA doesn't come down, the Yankees offense is strong enough to bail him out and give him some wins on most days. Keep him on your roster and wait for him to turn it around.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds

It might be time to bring the corn rows back. Arroyo is struggling early in the season with seven earned runs allowed in just 10 2/3 innings pitched. A large part of that is coming from the long ball as he gave up four home runs in his last start. Regardless, owners are dropping Arroyo, which is not something you should do unless you are in a shallow league. It is still early and Arroyo showed in the second half of last year that he can still be a solid pitcher (six wins, 3.55 ERA, 81 strikeouts). He also has 11 strikeouts so far, which should be helping your team. Keep him on the bench in deep mixed leagues, and hold on to him in NL-only leagues.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Stash

NL-only: Hold

Brad Thompson, St. Louis Cardinals

Thompson's poor start Tuesday, April 8, couldn't have come at a worse time as he allowed three runs on five hits and two walks in just four innings. Those numbers were a far cry from the 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball he threw in his season debut. He might not get another chance in the rotation as the team could replace him with starter Joel Pineiro (shoulder), who looked solid in what could be his final rehab start Tuesday, April 8. Jettison Thompson in all but the deepest leagues.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Discard

NL-only: Hold

Relief Pitchers

Eric Gagne, Milwaukee Brewers

Two blown saves in his first three opportunities should worry fantasy owners, especially with the way Gagne finished last season (6.75 ERA, 1.88 WHIP in 20 games with the Red Sox). The struggles could be related to injuries Gagne has suffered in the past. No longer does he have a high-90s fastball he can rely on to get out of trouble. Instead he must rely on his other pitches (changeup and curveball), while occasionally reaching back for a mid-90s fastball. This has forced him to become a smarter pitcher. Once everything begins to click, Gagne should be a solid No. 2 closer. His saves are still too hard to replace for you to ditch him this early.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants

Wilson blew the save Tuesday, April 8, although the team was able to bail him out by winning the game in the 11th. These kinds of growing pains were not unexpected with Wilson. Coming into this season Wilson had picked up only eight saves in 11 attempts. He is struggling so far, giving up three runs in three innings with only one strikeout, but don't read too much into that just yet. We are just past the first week of the season and Wilson, who is 26, could still be adjusting to the job. The Giants tabbed him as their closer for a reason. He is the top bullpen prospect they currently have in the majors. Keep a hold of him.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Brandon Lyon, Arizona Diamondbacks

It's never a good sign when the team is giving you a vote of confidence only one week into the season. After an opening day save, two of his three appearances have resulted in blown saves. In one of those chances Lyon failed to record one out, giving up three runs on three hits. What doesn't help matters is the 0.00 ERA and four strikeouts setup man Tony Pena has put up this year. Still, Lyon is manager Bob Melvin's guy, which is all that matters, so it is still too early to consider dropping him.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.