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Fantasy Baseball: Diamond Market - Falling

April 7, 2008 @ 06:09:22

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

Fantasy baseball waivers and discarded fantasy baseball players can make or break a season. You may have adjusted your fantasy baseball cheat sheets over and over during spring training. If your team remains the same after opening day, though, you will probably have trouble competing in your rotisserie baseball league. When is it time to give up on your fantasy baseball sleepers? Which players are worth retaining? KFFL.com's Diamond Market series gives you the fantasy baseball tips and advice you need to sort through the masses quickly.

Key

Discard - Drop player (in most circumstances)

Stash - Hold player if roster space is available; consider dropping if trend continues

Hold - Do not drop player (in most circumstances)

Catchers

None

First Basemen

None

Second Basemen

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees

Two things fantasy owners should know before making a decision on Cano: he hits better away from home (.292 career mark at home, .330 away), and he hits better later in the season (.291 before the All-Star break, .334 after). Well, we're just a week into the season and New York hasn't left the confines of Yankee Stadium. What does make this frustrating is the promise he showed in the spring with a .446 average and 19 RBIs. Still, don't give up on him just yet. He is still an upper-tier fantasy second baseman and should not be cut for any reason. His sixth spot in the Yankees' potent lineup is not under threat (for now), and he has raked against the team's next opponents (.354 career average against the Kansas City Royals, .330 against the Boston Red Sox), which could be enough to get him going.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Jeff Kent, Los Angeles Dodgers

Oh how your fortunes can change in a week. Kent went 2-for-3 with one home run in the team's opening day game but since then has just one hit in 14 at-bats. Kent was replaced for the team's game Sunday, April 6, and his replacement, infielder Chin-lung Hu, came up with the game-winning hit. Still, Kent owners have little reason to fear. Manager Joe Torre loves his veterans, and Sunday was a chance to get him some rest against a pitcher that has owned him in the past. Once he gets on a roll Kent can still put up numbers with the best of them, meaning his spot on your roster should remain secure.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers

Polanco is off to a slow start with the stick (.087 average and a whole lot of zeroes), but so is that entire offense. Many fantasy owners targeted him in the middle rounds because of his career year last year and his presence in this Tigers lineup. There was reason to be skeptical that he was worthy of such a pick considering his borderline fantasy value in the past. He's not a top-10 fantasy second baseman, but now owners are cutting bait on him a little too hastily. He's a patient hitter, and when Detroit gets going, which they inevitably should, he will almost certainly benefit.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Third Basemen

Troy Glaus, St. Louis Cardinals

Glaus has not taken as quickly to Busch Stadium as the team hoped (.190 average, two RBIs), but solid defensive play and a lack of depth at the hot corner means he should remain the starter, not that this was ever in doubt. Making his offensive struggles a little more bearable is the 5-1 record the team has compiled. For those owners in shallow leagues, there are likely better options to start from a fantasy perspective. If you are in deeper leagues his value is a lot greater as he is a legitimate starter with the ability to hit 20-plus home runs and 80-plus RBIs. Perhaps leaving St. Louis for two series will spark him.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds

A three-run walk-off shot Wednesday, April 2, aside, Encarnacion struggled opening week with just two hits in 16 at-bats. His three RBIs and one run all came during that one at-bat. About the only redeeming thing for Encarnacion are his eight walks, giving him an on-base percentage of .417. The early season struggles were a problem for him last year as he hit just .221 in the opening month, something that he improved on as the season wore on. Fantasy owners should not be quick to discard him, especially in deeper leagues, but they have to hope he can turn the corner soon.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Casey Blake, Cleveland Indians

A game-winning three-run double in the team's opening game got Blake off to a solid start, but he has done little since to build off that game. He now has 17 at-bats this season and has managed just two hits. He is also not seeing the ball great with only one walk to five strikeouts. Blake had a similar start last year when he hit .222 in the opening month. The absence of catcher Victor Martinez (hamstring) is one reason for the team's recent offensive struggles, which has seen the club hit just .173 in their last four games. Even if Martinez returns soon, Blake is still only a decent option in AL-only leagues.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Discard

AL-only: Hold

Shortstops

Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox

After a nightmarish road trip, the Red Sox will finally return home this week. Among the hitters who should benefit most from a return to Fenway is Lugo. In 72 home games last year, Lugo hit a solid .286, which was also 96 points higher than his road average (.190). He should be able to improve on the .238 average he has posted so far this season. A higher average should open more doors for him in the other categories (mainly runs and stolen bases). Keep a hold of Lugo for now, especially if you need a source of steals as he has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the last four seasons.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Stash

AL-only: Hold

Outfielders

Andruw Jones, Los Angeles Dodgers

Fantasy owners should not be surprised by Jones' low average as that was to be expected. After one hit in his first game, Jones has just two in five games since. The lack of power could give you reason to worry, as with the RBIs, but the whole Dodgers offense is struggling (.229 team average), which is one reason for his low RBI totals. Jones has shown better offensive numbers at Dodger Stadium (.231 average, six home runs, 20 RBIs in 143 at-bats), where he plays this week, and his defense and huge contract pretty much guarantee he will remain in the starting lineup. For a guy who hit 51 home runs in 2005 and 41 in 2006, it is a bit premature to dump him.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

Another struggling Dodgers hitter, Kemp finds himself splitting time with outfielder Juan Pierre. He is hitting just 2-for-15 and has six strikeouts over the first week of the season. About the only thing keeping his spirits up is Pierre's .091 (1-for-11) average. Manager Joe Torre will likely lean on his veteran outfielder (Pierre), but Kemp still has too much potential to be cut this early. His numbers last year (.342 average, 10 home runs, 42 RBIs in 292 at-bats) mean that when he does break out of his slump, he should do so in a big way. Hang on to him for now.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Johnny Damon, New York Yankees

A .136 average in six games is enough to cause fantasy owners to worry about Damon. They should not worry too much however, as he pulled the same stunt last year when he hit .229 with just eight RBIs in April. A trip on the road could be just the kind of cure the struggling hitter needs. He is just a career .252 hitter with 87 RBIs in 824 at-bats at Yankee Stadium. Both ballparks Damon will play at this week are familiar places he has hit well at in the past (Kauffman Stadium - .300 career average, Fenway Park - .308 average). If he can get on a roll, Damon should score plenty of runs in the potent Yankees offense. Don't drop him just yet.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Designated Hitters

None

Starting Pitchers

Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants

Not a fantasy superstar since 2003, Zito gave up seven earned runs in 10 innings while striking out just four during the opening week. Even more worrisome is the three home runs he gave up, though he took his lumps at Miller Park last season as well. If he maintains a high ERA, high WHIP and low strikeout totals, wins could become the only category he can contribute in. Sadly for fantasy owners, the Giants have a horrible offense and with series against the San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks coming up, wins could be at a premium. Jettison him in all but NL-only leagues.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Discard

NL-only: Hold

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

Five innings, six hits, three earned runs, seven strikeouts. Aside from the strikeouts, those are not the numbers fantasy owners wanted to see from their talented righty in his first start of the season. A good sign was that Buchholz was able to work in all four of his pitches and was hurt mainly by a few bloop singles that could easily have been fly outs. However, he has thrown just 153 innings above Class A ball, and the team will likely take every step to protect Buchholz if he continues losing. With his potential he should not be discarded, but keep an eye on him in his next scheduled start Friday, April 11, against the Yankees.

Shallow mixed: Stash

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals

Meche surprised everyone but himself by allowing just one run over 7 1/3 innings in a season-opening win last year. That set him on pace to post a career-low 3.67 ERA and win nine games for the lowly Royals. This year's start has been a bit less inspiring with nine runs allowed on 14 hits and six walks over just 11 2/3 innings. He was able to bounce back from poor starts last year, so expect him to be ok after some subpar outings this year. Still, it is reason to worry, and he can be released in any shallow leagues. He still has solid value in every other type of league.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Hold

AL-only: Hold

Jon Garland, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

After allowing only one run in his first start, Garland was knocked around to the tune of seven runs in just five innings Sunday, April 6. Coming into this season, Garland was a serviceable starter at best. A low strikeout rate (4.23 per nine innings last year), and a modest career ERA (4.42) and WHIP (1.37) meant that wins were the primary commodity for fantasy owners. What should worry those owners (and Angels fans) most is a career 5.68 ERA and 1.59 WHIP at Angel Stadium. Hang on to him in deep leagues, but his value could go south fast if he can't improve at home.

Shallow mixed: Discard

Deep mixed: Stash

AL-only: Hold

Relief Pitchers

Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres

Many remember how Hoffman's 2007 season ended when he blew his final two saves of the season, which cost the Padres a playoff spot. However, for the closer with the most saves in MLB history, it was thought a full offseason would be long enough for him to get over it. His start to this season would suggest otherwise. Already he has blown one save and been tagged with two losses. At 40 years of age and with a declining fastball, Hoffman could be expendable if you can get a high enough offer, though the offers might not be up to par considering his poor start. If the saves aren't coming in, Hoffman loses nearly all of his value. Setup man Heath Bell is someone to keep an eye on as he has allowed just two hits in four innings.

Shallow mixed: Hold

Deep mixed: Hold

NL-only: Hold

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.