Fantasy football overvalued players: Tight ends

September 9, 2010 @ 15:33:00

By Bryce McRae and Cory J. Bonini
Edited by KFFL Staff

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football overvalued players for the 2010 season will be updated weekly throughout the offseason. We have separated our busts and overvalued players this year, so be sure not to confuse the two.

Busts are also overvalued players in some cases, but the latter usually has a hype machine inflating his perceived value. We have a keen eye for these players and have a strong track record of identifying them. No one likes doing the dirty work, so let KFFL.com do it for you! Be sure to check for weekly updates.

Note: All average draft position (ADP) figures are based on 12-team, non-PPR leagues unless specified otherwise.

Tight ends

Dallas Clark | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 4th round

Don't count on a huge leap

We'll be brief: We're not saying Clark (leg) will be a bust, nor are we saying he doesn't deserve to be one of the top tight ends drafted. There is no arguing his talent, and he has quarterback Peyton Manning's trust.

Where Clark scares most is his health. The 2009 season was his first 16-game campaign in his entire career. He missed the entire preseason, though he says he'll be back for Week 1. It's still not an encouraging start.

Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (knee) is expected to return to the mix. Wideouts Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon should be better with a full year of experience. We expect the Colts to run more with a healthy Donald Brown, too. Clark set career highs in receptions (100) and receiving yardage (1,106), both figures we expect to decrease in 2010.

Fantasy value: Draft him confidently as your No. 1 tight end, but Clark is hardly a slam dunk to repeat last year's fantastic showing. Expect something closer to his 2008 stat line of 77-848-6 in terms of receptions and yardage, but his touchdowns should remain in the double-digit neighborhood. His late fourth-round placement is a fair value, but the position is so deep that you can probably hold off and address a different area of need that high in the draft.

Jermichael Finley | Green Bay Packers | ADP: 5th round

It was a breakout year for Green Bay's third-year TE; Finley caught 55 passes for 676 yards and five scores. In Green Bay's lone playoff game, he had six receptions for 159 yards. He's a tough matchup, possessing too much size for most DBs and enough speed to burn most linebackers. This offseason he worked out at Larry Fitzgerald's camp, which helped Sidney Rice (Vikings) to a career year in '09.

The drawbacks, though: Finley has only 11 career starts. He was bothered by a knee injury last year. This offense has a ton of weapons - Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Ryan Grant, James Jones, Jordy Nelson - and head coach Mike McCarthy isn't afraid to make use of unexpected options. John Kuhn scored three TDs last year, Spencer Havner had four.

Fantasy value: Finley has the talent to turn in an elite season. However, he is being drafted ahead of safer, though less exciting, tight ends, and this position is deep. You don't need to reach. Finley is a No. 1, but someone is likely going to bypass more secure talent to take a chance on him.

Also see:

Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Busts: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Undervalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Overvalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Joe, at 08:52 on 06/25/10, says: I knew it. This guy is at worst going to put in a top 5 tight end caliber season. How can you call him overvalued? How about an aging Tony Gonzalez, or Visanthe Shiancoe who you dont even know with absolute certainty who his qb will be, or Vernon Davis considering that his quarterback is terrible. Finley is probably the most talented tight end in the league. Will probably be at worst the second most targeted. And has one of the elite quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Yep. Sounds overvalued to me...............

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2

Matt, at 10:44 on 06/29/10, says: Hes not calling him a bust. just a little overvalued. You cant always count on him to be healthy and there are a bunch of other weapons on the Packers. Hes got potential but is just a little more risky than other choices. you obviously didnt read the article all the way through.

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3

Justin, at 08:41 on 07/09/10, says: Thanks for saving me to time of writing what you wrote Matt. It is this mentality that is going to make Finley even more overvalued.

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4

Pat, at 04:10 on 09/02/10, says: How long ago was this article written? If it's possible to over-value what will be the #1 TE, then I guess Finley is over-valued. He's on my team, and was the 6th TE taken. I couldn't believe it - luckily, our draft was last week....about an hour after I drafted him, the announcers were gushing about him on Thur night football as he shredded the Colts D. I love me some Finley.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL

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