Fantasy football busts: Quarterbacks
KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts for the 2010 season will be updated weekly throughout the offseason. We have separated our busts and overvalued players this year, so be sure not to confuse the two.
Busts are also overvalued players in some cases. Even the most surefire pick can end up busting due to injury, but there is no way to accurately project for that. Instead, we will primarily focus on the players' situations that could lead to down years. No one likes doing the dirty work, so let KFFL.com do it for you! Be sure to check for weekly updates.
Note: All average draft position (ADP) figures are based on 12-team, non-PPR leagues unless specified otherwise.
No doubt Eli has grown as a quarterback: In '09, career bests in completion percentage (62.3), passing yards (4,021), yards per attempt (7.9) and touchdown throws (27) highlighted his best statistical season. Steve E. Smith became his BFF, and Hakeem Nicks posted an optimistic rookie campaign.
What's the problem, then? The G-men will probably look to bring the focus back to Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw; both encountered injuries and ineptitude last year, and the Giants suffered for it. When all is right, Manning works off the ground game, not the other way around, so there probably isn't much upward movement for his statistical output. If they don't have to go downfield as much and his yards per attempt go down, the 4,000-yard plateau will probably elude him.
Fantasy value: We probably saw Eli's statistical apex last year, and the Giants' typically run-first philosophy means you shouldn't bank on this line again. Maybe he can pass as a low-end No. 1, but you'll need to grab a backup soon after if you're forced to draft Manning in that role. He remains a top-flight No. 2, but don't overpay in fantasy for his real-life maturation.
About Cory J. Bonini
Cory is KFFL's General Manager. In late 2002, he joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, Bonini has been featured in print, on radio and on scores of websites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.
Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors. Follow @CoryKFFL
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