This analysis provides fantasy owners with a snapshot of the key fantasy football situations and players for each respective team in the division. For more detailed analysis, please visit our Fantasy Football Preseason Draft Guide.
Jerious Norwood, running back: One of the most dangerous players on the Falcons, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry last year and his career mark is 5.8. Running back Michael Turner isn't a factor in the receiving game and could receive a lighter workload carrying the ball. If the passing game can stretch the field, it'd give the explosive Norwood a lot more room to work.
Harry Douglas, wide receiver: In 2008, five of Douglas' 23 receptions went for 20-plus yards, and his long was 69 yards. Atlanta could take some of the shackles off quarterback Matt Ryan in the passing offense this year, but the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez could limit Douglas. He probably needs an injury to bring him into fantasy contention.
Potential bust(s)
Michael Turner, running back: Emphasis on "potential."Turner carried the ball an astonishing 394 times (including playoffs) last year in his first full season as a starter. Atlanta likely will lighten his workload this season. He isn't a factor in the receiving game, and some of his red zone touches (74 last year) could go to Gonzalez. Don't overvalue Turner.
Michael Jenkins, wide receiver: Just how many looks will there be in this passing offense? Gonzalez will steal some of Jenkins' targets; he'll also have to contend with Norwood, Douglas and Roddy White. Jenkins had eight more catches of 20-plus yards last year than he had in his previous best season.
Potential breakout player(s)
Matt Ryan, quarterback: He should receive more responsibility this year after mainly managing games last year. The front office gave him a brand new toy (Gonzalez) to play with. Aside from Ryan's dismal touchdown total (16), his other stats were solid for a rookie (3,440 yards, 61.1 completion percentage, 11 interceptions).
Offensive line quality
Atlanta's running backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry (tied for seventh) last year in part because of the line's play. Ryan was sacked just 17 times, too, which was the fifth-lowest total in the league. They aren't an experienced group, but they gelled last year and continuity will help. Center Jeremy Newberry retired and should be replaced by veteran Todd McClure.
Jake Delhomme, quarterback: Many will vilify him for his six-turnover performance in Carolina's playoff loss last year. That game was a perfect storm of what could go wrong, though. Delhomme will be a further year removed from his elbow injury; the Panthers might take the reins off a bit more. The defense could regress, so Delhomme could be chucking the ball a bit more, too. He could be a decent waiver wire pickup.
Potential bust(s)
DeAngelo Williams, running back: Williams gave owners, arguably, the best return on their fantasy value last year (1,636 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 20 total touchdowns). However, 2008 first-round draft pick Jonathan Stewart was hampered by a toe injury early last year, and the Panthers O might trust Delhomme's elbow more in the passing game. Williams doesn't catch many passes, either.
Muhsin Muhammad, wide receiver: Moose turned 36 this offseason; at what point do the wheels completely fall off. He caught 65 passes last year, which could be hard to match in 2009. Wide receiver Dwayne Jarrett could challenge him, at some point, and fits the same profile as Muhammad.
Potential breakout player(s)
We don't feel like there are any skill position players primed for a breakout campaign on the Panthers roster.
Offensive line quality
The line performed about as well as you could expect one to perform last year, especially with a rookie right tackle (Jeff Otah). Delhomme was kept fairly clean (20 sacks) and the rushing attack averaged a gaudy 4.8 yards per carry. A big part of that could have been the talent of their backs, though. This group fits the mauler style the offensive approach calls for.
Defensive quality
New defensive coordinator Ron Meeks will be mixing in some more basic Cover 2 packages, designed to take advantage of their defense's athleticism. They surrendered the 12th-fewest points per game last year (20.6) and were solid in pressuring the quarterback (37 sacks; ninth in the league).
Miscellaneous Observation(s)
If the defense regresses this year, expect the Panthers to pass a lot more and be forced to abandon their running game at times.
Jeremy Shockey, tight end: Frequently drafted as a midrange No. 1 fantasy tight end in previous seasons, Shockey is now considered a borderline No. 1 and in some cases goes undrafted. Injuries set him back, and the Saints have plenty of options, but in this offense, he could easily produce quality figures for a low cost.
Potential bust(s)
Pierre Thomas, running back: No question, Thomas impressed last year when his role increased. He has never been a featured back, though, and he began to break down when his workload jumped. Reggie Bush (knee) is expected to share backfield duties, and this is a pass-oriented offense. It's optimistic to think he'll be a reliable fantasy No. 2.
Potential breakout player(s)
Robert Meachem, wide receiver: Stop us if you've heard this one. Year 1 is a wash because of a knee injury. Year 2 saw rare flashes of brilliance. Year 3? Meachem is the most talented wideout on roster, but he's used to things coming to him easily. He needs to remains healthy and as dedicated as he was this offseason. The Saints need a lot of footballs each week, but Meachem has the kind of ability that would help him deliver against such odds - as a gamble, a No. 6 receiver.
Offensive line quality
This unit fronted for the league's most prolific offense and returns essentially intact. The Saints finished with the second fewest sacks allowed despite running by far the greatest number of pass plays. Quarterback Drew Brees' quick decision-making helps. N'Awlins averaged 4.0 yards per carry - consider the respect the passing game warrants, though. Like the offense itself, the line excels on passes and is adequate on runs. Guard Jamar Nesbit is suspended for the first four contests, so Carl Nicks, a 2009 fifth-rounder will fill in. There may be bumps early.
Defensive quality
It's not easy to play opposite a quick-strike offense. This D finished 23rd overall and against the aerial game. They were 17th against the run, down four spots from the previous season's finish. However, the Saints were a sieve against the pass in 2007. A resurgent Jonathan Vilma upgraded the linebacker crew last year; this year, veteran safety Darren Sharper should provide much needed leadership - even if he has lost a step. Defensive end Charles Grant (five sacks) has been a non-factor and no longer sees double teams; he and fellow end Will Smith are also appealing four-game suspensions, so this unit will have trouble mustering a pass rush. Wait ... they brought down quarterbacks only 28 times last year! If the D stinks, more shootouts for the O.
Miscellaneous Observation(s)
The Saints' failure to make significant strides on defense every year and desire to play up-tempo offense makes New Orleans a great fantasy haven. Unfortunately, few of their weapons are "sure things."
Starting quarterback: Come again? Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich and, yes, rookie Josh Freeman are expected to receive shots at this spot. McCown is the favorite, for fantasy purposes especially; you can fry an egg during Leftwich's looping release. Offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski plans to lean heavily on the run. If it works, (insert name here) will find clear lanes to hit dangerous targets like Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow. You're talking deep leagues and No. 3 passer here, though.
Potential bust(s)
Antonio Bryant, wide receiver: Through no fault of his own - likely - Bryant, who enjoyed a breakthrough after his rededication to the game, is in for a tumble. The unsettled and uninspiring quarterback situation, among other factors, conspires against a repeat of 2008's sexy line (83-1,248-7).
Potential breakout player(s)
Derrick Ward, running back: Ward has never been the lead man for an extended period, but he's expected to be just that after signing with the Bucs this offseason. He has the build (5-foot-11, 228 pounds) for it and has averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his career. Earnest Graham will spell him and could cut into his touches, but too many fantasy owners are skeptical of Ward's upside as a No. 2 or high-end No. 3.
Offensive line quality
The Bucs overcame a couple of injuries along this unit and allowed a respectable 32 sacks while averaging 4.1 yards per carry. Mobile quarterback Jeff Garcia aided the former total, a reason that McCown and Freeman are better candidates to succeed behind this line. The unit neither excels nor is completely inept at either facet of blocking. Talented guard Arron Sears (concussion) has suffered multiple concussions in his two seasons and is dealing with personal issues that may affect his performance. He must compete for a job in camp, but the Bucs may lose little by going to solid second-year man Jeremy Zuttah.
Defensive quality
D in shambles. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and over-the-hill linebacker Derrick Brooks are gone. Middle 'backer Barrett Ruud is solid, but he needs legit help on either side of him to stand out. Desperate? Linebacker Angelo Crowell (knee) must prove healthy; former strong safety Jermaine Phillips is giving the strongside job a shot. Defensive end Gaines Adams could excel, but the rest of the line is lackluster. The secondary has talent, at least at corner, but the front seven has to improve on its 2008 sack total (29). The transition from the Tampa 2 probably means fewer turnovers, typical for a Jim Bates defense. No wonder the offensive game plan revolves around the run. It better work.
Miscellaneous Observation(s)
The overhaul of personnel isn't as great in numbers as it is in influence. The loss of leadership (from head coach Jon Gruden on down) and influx of new bodies create a jungle juice-like unknown that may not end pretty.
Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.
Author Bio
Nicholas Minnix
KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.
The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.
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