His overall totals ended up about as impressive as you could expect from a rookie rusher: 1,238 rushing yards, 63 receptions, 477 receiving yards and 12 total touchdowns.
The Bears should remain committed to the run, even with gunslinger Jay Cutler in town, and Forte will still see the bulk of the carries. Two new tackles, Orlando Pace and Kevin Shaffer (in case Chris Williams (back) suffers a setback), could improve the line as well as provide depth.
Cutler's arm should keep defenses honest (at least more so than Kyle Orton's last year); this could give Forte more room to run than he found in 2008.
The 23-year-old Forte certainly has age working in his favor, too.
Cons
He's not viewed as an elite talent but rather as someone that makes the most of his abilities. Last year might have been his ceiling.
Forte failed to show much burst in 2008 (3.9 yards per carry). Among qualified rushers, he was tied for 36th. He averaged four yards or less per rush in 12 games last year.
His three 100-yard games last year came against subpar defenses (Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams). He failed to reach 80 rushing yards in a game 10 times last year.
Chicago wants to cut back Forte's workload (379 touches last year), which is easier to do with a healthy Kevin Jones. Given Forte's low yards-per-carry average, a cutback in touches could make it tough for him to top his 2008 yardage total.
It's safe to say the Bears didn't trade for Cutler to give him the same role as Kyle Orton.Cutler has a bigger arm and might be looking downfield more often than his bearded predecessor. Forte's targets could suffer.
LT finished with 1,110 rushing yards, 52 receptions, 426 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns last year - still solid even if it didn't live up to his lofty expectations.
Making his 2008 even more impressive: Tomlinson (toe) was dealing with a toe injury for most of the season, one that likely should have forced him to the sidelines for four to six weeks. He also battled a groin strain that hindered his jump-cut ability.
Don't discount LT's motivation. He wants to prove he's not washed up, he still has to win his first Super Bowl, and he has Emmitt Smith's all-time rushing record in his long-range sights.
Tomlinson has been the top fantasy back this decade. His yearly averages from 2001 to 2007: 1,521 rushing yards, 18 total touchdowns, 65 receptions and 482 receiving yards.
Cons
Was last year the beginning of the end for the future Hall of Famer? Tomlinson has racked up 2,657 carries during his eight-year career and hit his 30s in June. He says he'll be fine this year, but when have you known a professional athlete to admit they've lost a step?
A sprained medial collateral ligament in his knee, a partially torn tendon in his groin and turf toe are all maladies that have limited Tomlinson in the last two years. His body appears to be slowly breaking down.
The amount of weapons the Chargers have on offense could limit Tomlinson's touches; it gives them options, at least, if they want to try to keep LT healthy for December and January.
The verdict
Our view is that you want consistency and as close to a sure thing as you can get with your first-round pick. If a player has enough upside, he could be taken over the safer option, but in this case, Forte doesn't have the kind of potential to risk him over LT. There are still too many questions with the second-year back. In fairness, there are a lot of questions surrounding a 30-year-old back with a lot of mileage. The biggest difference, though, is that LT is an elite player and surefire Hall of Famer.
Forte certainly has the room to grow, though, and might be there one day, but at this point, we need to see more from him. Even in point-per-reception leagues, there isn't enough in Forte's game to push him over the top. They both catch a lot of passes; Forte's receiving work should decrease this year.
Winner: Tomlinson would have to be our pick. Don't take the high upside; go for consistency and focus on upside later in your draft. LT's upside is decent enough - he could realistically challenge for the rushing title and lead the league in rushing touchdowns.
very informative, I actually have to choose between keeping Matt or LT and have yet to decide, I agree on LT being better for 09 (most RBs would love to match his down year numbers), in my case long term wins it
its mind boggling to me that everyone leapfrogs JonesDrew to the head of the pack when he's never carried the load, while a guy like Forte was the entire Bear offense, put up excellent numbers in doing so, still gets no respect.
Forte is a hoss! His YPC stats are deceptive, considering defenses stacked the box against the run last year. With Cutler on board, his stats can only improve. He's young and eager to make a name for himself - he'll have a minimum of 1600 RYds, 600-700 RYds (thank you, Jay Cutler) and 18-20 TD's this year. AND HE'S ONLY A SOPHMORE RB!
@weegie, there's a real risk forte peaked last year - he doesn't really have breakaway skills and doesn't seem likely to put up a monster game. he did well last year since he got a ton of touches, but that's a risky bet for a first round pick, since all it takes is kevin jones stepping up or cutler being a boost to the bears passing game (neither of which are a stretch) and suddenly forte is a 150 touch back instead of 350+ touches, and his value plummets.
I also had the same dilemma recently and all throughout my mock drafts I consistently chose Forte at my #4 pick. In the last couple of days before my league's draft I started re-thinking my position. Who would I rather have on my football team? The answer is LT. Why? Because next to AP, when he's healthy, he's the most exciting RB in the NFL. I believe he's out to prove he's not washed up this year. Forte is a good back, but he's no LT. BTW, after I picked LT at #4 I got Steven Jackson in the 2nd round too! Pretty good RB tandem I have for this year.
Football is a young mans game. I would not put a 30 year old RB. on my fantasy roster, period. No way LT stays healthy this year. He'll miss some games.
Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.
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