Last year, it was quarterback Jay Cutler who departed the Denver Broncos. This offseason, they jettisoned Marshall, their top receiver. Jumping to a new offense is hardly an ideal situation - the more stability the better for your top picks. In most drafts, Marshall is narrowly edging out White. Is this deserved? Yes.
Marshall beats out White in the key fantasy categories. In the last three years, he has 3,710 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns on 307 receptions. White in the same timeframe: 3,737 yards, 24 touchdowns but only 256 receptions. A few more yards, an extra touchdown but significantly fewer catches. Also, White had 10 games of 60 yards or fewer last year. Marshall had just six. Consistency is in Marshall's favor, especially for point-per-reception owners.
Four straight 100-catch seasons?
Marshall is part of a short list of receivers that have at least 100 receptions in each of the last three seasons. The only other wideout on that list: the New England Patriots' Wes Welker. And no, the short list comment wasn't a dig at Welker's height.
Last year, Marshall's yards-per-catch average dropped to a career-low 11.1. Was it him or the offense? Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is more of a dink-and-dunk passer than Jay Cutler was with the Broncos. Marshall's quarterback in Miami, Chad Henne, has a stronger arm than Orton and should be able to help Marshall's YPC return to its previous highs. Marshall's yards after the catch last year was 5.2, on average, the second highest figure of his three-year run as a starter (5.4 in 2007). He's not dropping off there.
Marshall will be a huge part of Miami's offense. They need him to be. Their passing attack dropped from 10th in yards per game in '08 (227.0) to 20th last year (198.1). They gave up two second-round picks to acquire Marshall. He was targeted eight times in their third preseason game. Also, in '08, Miami was tied for sixth in average yards per pass attempt (7.7), so they do push the ball down the field somewhat.
What about White? Well, he's still going to garner a ton of looks - but as many as Marshall? White is a speedier receiver, but he turns 29 in November. His yards-per-reception average sank to a career-low 13.6 last year. He hasn't been as dangerous after the catch the last two years. Is he losing some of his wheels?
Finally, Marshall should be in a happier place in Miami. He feuded with head coach Josh McDaniels in Denver. He hasn't had any major arguments with head coach Tony Sparano yet, and with Bill Parcells there, the Dolphins have higher-ups that could control Marshall. Parcells successfully corralled Terrell Owens when the two were in Dallas.
Concerned about Marshall's hip injury? He suffered a similar one prior to the 2009 season, and he was still able to put up a 101-1,120-10 stat line. This year's hip injury is not as serious, either, and he says he's fully healthy.
Marshall wasn't happy in Denver, the city, itself. Part of the reason: His former teammate Darrent Williams' death. That weighed on him. It might still, the guilt, but he has a fresh start in a new city this year.
Closing argument: Getting out of Denver should do wonders to clear Marshall's head. That alone could outweigh the negatives, at least for fantasy owners, of learning a new offense, developing chemistry with a new quarterback and finding his way around a new city.
If that's not a big concern, then what really is? Marshall has outperformed White over the last three years, and the 26-year-old has shown few signs of slowing down. In point-per-reception leagues, the argument isn't even close. In standard leagues, well, it's closer, but it still favors the younger wideout.
The Atlanta Falcons boast a balanced offense with a strong running game and a dangerous aerial assault. Leading the team through the air are quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Roddy White. The sixth-year veteran wideout is coming off arguably his finest year as a pro, and much like Marshall, White is about as consistent as they come at the position.
White's last three seasons look like this: 83, 88 and 85 receptions, respectively. He has posted at least 1,153 yards in each of the three campaigns. White is one year removed from a 1,382-yard season, topping Marshall's 2007 personal best of 1,325. Matching Marshall, White found the end zone 13 total times in 2007 and '08. Again, like the former Denver Bronco, the Alabama-Birmingham product experienced a touchdown explosion in 2009 - White's 11 scores surpassed Marshall's 10, both being career highs for the respective players.
Obviously the production is there, and both players have been remarkably steady the past three years. White, though, doesn't have to deal with learning a new offense or adjusting to an unfamiliar quarterback.
White gold
The two teams each sport respectable offensive lines and have powerful rushing attacks. Where White separates himself even further from Marshall: risk-reward ratio. Marshall has been an off-the-field incident waiting to happen much of his career. He has steered away from trouble recently in his personal life, but you always have to wonder if he'll revert to his not so distant troubled past. Furthermore, White hasn't missed time because of injury in his entire career. Marshall is once again returning from hip surgery, although it didn't seem to affect him much in '09.
Marshall hasn't demonstrated the ability to be a big-play threat with a larger body of work. Some of this can be attributed to what has been a relatively conservative passing attack by the last and current regimes in Denver, though. Since White became a full-time starter in 2007, his lowest yards-per-reception average (13.6, 2009) is almost a full yard more than Marshall's best during this same time (13.0, 2007).
White's quarterback situation is a little better than Marshall's, with Ryan being more seasoned than Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne. Ryan showed progress in touchdown efficiency in 2009 and should be fully healthy this season after battling a toe injury in '09.
Last year, Marshall scored six of his 10 touchdowns in three games, whereas seven of White's trips to paydirt were spread over separate games.
White worked hard this offseason to improve his ability to rack up yardage after the catch. He has averaged 4.4 yards after the reception the past two years but boasted a 5.7 YAC in 2007. Marshall's best in the last three years is 5.4 ('07). Some of this stat is system-driven, and a portion is player-related ability. Once again, Marshall finds himself in a new system, and two hip surgeries in as many years could hamper his escape ability.
Closing argument: It's really tough to go wrong either way here, and if you feel Marshall's value in point-per-reception contests gives him the edge, more power to you. To me, Marshall's potential for a letdown is far greater than White's is, and I'm not going to risk a second-rounder on a pick that makes me uncomfortable. Smart money is on White to post better overall statistics.
Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.
Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.
Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.
Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.
