Debate Series: Adrian Peterson vs. Chris Johnson

July 29, 2010 @ 03:54:03

By Cory J. Bonini and Bryce McRae
Edited by Bryce McRae and Cory J. Bonini

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Fantasy football owners fall in love with last year's darlings each and every draft season. This year is no exception with the way fantasy leaguers are drooling over Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson.

I understand it, but I don't agree with it, and history is on my side. I'm not saying Johnson can't have another fine season, but he has his work cut out for him. My focus is on Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings' star rusher. He is a safer pick than CJ2K but has just as much upside. With the No. 1 overall pick, regardless of the scoring system, I'm taking Peterson 10 out of 10 times.

• The Oklahoma Sooner standout has topped 1,340 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his three pro seasons. In 2009, he scored a career-high 18 times.
• The Vikings boast a strong offensive line and one of the best left sides in the league. Fullback Naufahu Tahi is a thumper and clears the way for Peterson like few others can.

• Cory drafts Peterson No. 1 All Day

  Durability: Regardless of collegiate injuries and missing two games as a rookie, Peterson has held up to an extensive workload (677 carries in last two years) without missing a game. How will Johnson hold up after 408 total touches? Again, history indicates not well.
• People accentuate AD's fumbling problems, and while I'm not saying he doesn't have an issue with it, it's overblown for fantasy purposes. Most leagues deduct one point per lost fumble, which cost Peterson a touchdown worth of points last year. Johnson lost three fumbles and scored fewer times than Peterson did. Besides, do you really believe head coach Brad Childress will sit Peterson for more than a play or two if he fumbles?
• Receiving: Everyone points to Johnson's contributions through the aerial game, which have been impressive, but Peterson isn't a slouch in this department. He improved two years running and caught 43 passes last year for 436 yards. Third-down back Chester Taylor is gone, and Peterson may very well be the new third-down option.
• Peterson has worked hard at improving his consistency and wants to become less of a feast-or-famine player. Johnson has spent the entire offseason away from the team while griping about his contract.

Closing argument: I don't see this being a slam dunk like so many others do. In fact, it's quite the opposite. For owners that feel more comfortable drafting Johnson first, feel free. I understand why, but don't just blindly accept that CJ is the top fantasy choice this year. It's not as simple as it looks.

Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

In 2009, Johnson joined an elite group of backs to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a season. He also eclipsed Marshall Faulk's NFL record for most yards in a season from scrimmage. He was clearly the top fantasy back, but past success doesn't mean it'll continue in the future. Should he be the top pick in 2010? 

• His '09 stats speak for themselves: 2,006 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, 50 receptions and 503 receiving yards. He averaged a gaudy 5.6 yards per carry with 22 runs of 20-plus yards. The YPC is not totally out of character, either, as he averaged 4.9 in '08. Peterson's has decreased the past two seasons to settle at 4.4 last year.
• Johnson is the focal point of this offense. He exploded last year when Vince Young took over behind center. Following Young's insertion as the starter in Week 8, Johnson ran for at least 100 yards in all 10 remaining games and scored 12 of his 14 rushing touchdowns.

• Aims for 1st back-to-back 2k seasons

  Consistency: Since Young took over, Johnson was as even as any player in recent memory. Peterson was all or nothing last year.
• The '08 first-round draft pick didn't get his long-term deal this year. He's still playing for a big payday. That motivation should keep him going. He reported to OTAs thicker and stronger than last year; that could help his 5-foot-11, 200-pound frame withstand another season of 300-plus carries.
• Tennessee doesn't plan on limiting his workload this year despite giving him 408 touches last year. They're cognizant of it, though, and will - need - to do everything to keep him healthy. He is their offense. Johnson's running style is conducive to staying healthy since he doesn't take a lot of big hits.
• Minny added Toby Gerhart to their backfield. Will he take away a few goal line carries (and touchdowns) from Peterson? Possibly. We all know AD's troubles with holding on to the ball, too. If he can't correct that, maybe the Vikes start giving Gerhart a few more touches than Peterson's previous backups received. At the very least, he'll take away a few scores.

Closing argument: It's tough to look past his '09 workload; do you want that kind of risk with your No. 1 overall pick? Depends on the stakes. No other back offers CJ's upside, but you are taking a bit of a risk selecting him ahead of Peterson, who has more of a track record. Even still, that risk should pay off in a big way.

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Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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