Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Philadelphia Phillies Team Preview

March 20, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Jason Hoffmann

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2005 RECORD: 88-74 (Second in NL East - Did not make playoffs)

OVERVIEW

Despite coming on strong at the end of 2005, the Phillies still finished one game out of the wild card race. One might expect a squad that suffered such a disappointing finish to simply try to find the missing pieces and gear up for a playoff run. But Philadelphia's problems went a little deeper; they had shortcomings that a few stopgaps can't fill. That was one reason for General Manager Ed Wade's exit.

That opened the door for new G.M. Pat Gillick, who has his work cut out for him as he tries to change the culture of an organization that's been satisfied with mediocrity. Gone are 1B Jim Thome (traded to the Chicago White Sox) and CL Billy Wagner (signed as a free agent with the New York Mets); here are CF Aaron Rowand and CL Tom Gordon; remaining are the slew of question marks surrounding the team's pitching. Gillick has taken steps in the right direction, but, with Philadelphia's lack of patience, he can't take forever to fix it.

POSITIONAL DUEL

For a club with such unreliable pitching, there are surprisingly few players waging battles for starting spots this spring. Ps Ryan Franklin and Ryan Madson are engaged in wars with themselves for rights to the roles of No. 4 and No. 5 starter; barring complete meltdowns, they'll have little competition. That says something about the back end of the rotation. Franklin doesn't offer much promise, after going 12-31 with a 4.99 ERA over the past two seasons with the Seattle Mariners. Madson hasn't been a full-time starter since 2003, at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, although he does have some upside.

The bullpen has a series of openings, with Ps Rheal Cormier and Aaron Fultz, both lefties, likely to break camp with the team. Vying for the other jobs are Ps Robinson Tejeda, Geoff Geary, Eude Brito, Chris Booker, Julio Santana, Aquilino Lopez and former surefire prospect Gavin Floyd, among others.

The only other job up for grabs is that of backup to 3B David Bell. The battle could prove most significant because, with Bell's back already giving the aging vet trouble this spring, the winner could platoon with, or even start for, Bell. IFs Abraham O. Nunez and Alex S. Gonzalez are in a somewhat tight race, and Bell's injury troubles had the team second-guessing its plan to trade IF Tomas Perez.

FADING FAST

It's clear that Bell has been on the decline, but C Mike Lieberthal may deserve the most scrutiny. The Phillies used to be able to justify absorbing his deficiencies behind the dish because of his offensive potential. A look at his lightweight numbers in 2005 (.263, 12 HRs and 47 RBI in 118 games) suggests that is no longer the case. Knee injuries have taken their toll on the 34-year-old. Lieby can block pitches and field his position adequately, but his inability to call games and work with his hurlers makes the former first-round pick expendable.

COMING ON STRONG

The Phillies have three obvious candidates in 2B Chase Utley, 1B Ryan Howard and SP Brett Myers, each of whom took a different route to arrive at his breakout season. Utley, 27, and already a hometown fave, forced Manager Charlie Manuel to leave him in the lineup with his exceptional clutch-hitting and surprising glovework. Howard, 26, terrorized minor league pitching and made the most of his opportunity when an injury to Thome finally opened the door. Myers, who many forget is just 25, learned to pitch with confidence and finished 2005 tied for fifth in the majors in Ks with 208 and posted his first sub-4.00 ERA (3.72).

Beyond them, there's a gap between the mainstays and the up-and-comers. OF Shane Victorino, a Rule V draftee last offseason, represents the most short-term potential. Last year he earned International League (Triple-A) MVP honors and batted .294 in his late-season call-up. He has some tools but is more exciting because of the effort that he brings. Victorino, 25, should have little trouble locking up the fourth outfield spot. If LF Pat Burrell or RF Bobby Abreu were to revisit previous ailments, Victorino could be a factor.

ON THE REBOUND

Philadelphia made a run at the playoffs in SPITE of All-Star Bobby Abreu's play, not because of it. Leg and shoulder injuries hampered him in September as he batted just .250 with two homers. He hit the century mark in RBI and runs, as he's become accustomed to doing, but he didn't hit .300, something he'd failed to do only once since 1998. He was trade bait this past winter, so it'll be interesting to see what effect that has on him. Abreu, 32, has played in at least 151 games for eight straight seasons, so he could be on the rebound, or his name could appear in the "Falling Off" section in 2007 - if he's still in town.

INJURY REPORT

Bell has had back issues for almost as long as Philadelphia has known him. He had to undergo tests on the problem area after his first spring training appearance, and although he's close to working his way back, the situation raises serious doubts about his dependability.

Foot pain had plagued Burrell the past two years, and he had surgery last October to remove a "loose body" and bone spur in his right foot that had become more than troublesome at the end of the 2005 season. He's easing his way back with the aid of a special cleat and orthopedic support and could be full strength by Opening Day.

Gordon, 38, began spring with questions surrounding him because of the number of innings he's throw in the past two seasons (170.1). He's had elbow problems in the past, and he experienced tightness in the joint after his first outing of the spring. Gordon, who's avoided throwing the curve, his signature pitch, is taking a cautious approach to his return.

CLOSER UNDERSTUDY

RP Arthur Rhodes, who arrived in a trade with the Cleveland Indians this past winter, is the best fallback option in case Gordon falters. That's bad news for this club, because Rhodes failed miserably in his first audition as a closer, in 2004 with the Oakland Athletics. He's more than sufficient as a bridge to the closer, but he doesn't have the makeup to nail 'em down.

ON-DECK

Gillick's legacy (if there is to be one) could heavily rely on his ability (or lack thereof) to bolster a farm system that had shriveled up over the years. Left-handed P Cole Hamels, the gem of the organization's farmhands, has dealt with injury problems as a pro, but scouts love his diverse arsenal that includes mid-90s heat. Gillick also acquired talented but oft-injured lefty P Gio Gonzalez and hardworking southpaw P Daniel Haigwood in the Thome deal. Confident right-handed P Scott Mathieson, who pitched well in the World Baseball Classic for Canada, will team with the other three to form one of the most talented rotations at the Double-A level. Any of them could contribute by season's end.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (.290, 12 HRs, 115 runs, 41 SBs)

2) CF Aaron Rowand (.270, 13 HRs, 16 SBs) w/ CHW

3) 2B Chase Utley (.291, 28 HRs, 105 RBI, 16 SBs)

4) OF Bobby Abreu (.286, 24 HRs, 102 RBI, 104 runs, 31 SBs)

5) OF Pat Burrell (.281, 32 HRs, 117 RBI)

6) 1B Ryan Howard (.288, 22 HRs, 63 RBI)

7) 3B David Bell (.248, 10 HRs, 61 RBI)

8) C Mike Lieberthal (.263, 12 HRs, 47 RBI)

PROJECTED ROTATION

1) Jon Lieber (17-13, 4.20 ERA)

2) Brett Myers (13-8, 3.72 ERA)