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Fantasy Baseball Forecast: RP

March 28, 2008 @ 06:06:38

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

Table: Do Not Bench

Player	Team	Player	Team
J.J. Putz	SEA	Chad Cordero	WAS
Jonathan Papelbon	BOS	Manny Corpas	COL
Joe Nathan	MIN	Joakim Soria	KC
Francisco Rodriguez	LAA	Jason Isringhausen	STL
Billy Wagner	NYM	Matt Capps	PIT
Bobby Jenks	CHW	Huston Street	OAK
Mariano Rivera	NYY	Kerry Wood	CHC
Francisco Cordero	CIN	Eric Gagne	MIL
Jose Valverde	HOU	Kevin Gregg	FLA
Trevor Hoffman	SD	Todd Jones	DET
Rafael Soriano	ATL

Great Plays

Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. San Francisco Giants	3	Neutral	0.97	--
at San Diego Padres	3	Pitcher	--	1.98

The Dodgers are concerned that Saito (buttocks) won't be ready for the beginning of the season; various ailments have limited his spring training work. If he goes, Saito shouldn't be on the bench. Los Angeles should announce their intentions, so fantasy owners should know ahead of time to sit him or not.

Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. San Francisco Giants	3	Neutral	1.38	--
at San Diego Padres	3	Pitcher	--	4.71

As good as Saito is, he will have to remain healthy if he wants to hold off Broxton. Broxton has just five career saves, but in 82 innings last year he posted a 2.85 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and an outstanding 99 strikeouts. It could help Broxton that Saito experienced some tightness in his buttocks during a simulated game that could see the team take it easy with Saito. Even if he doesn't get a shot at saving any games, his other numbers make him a solid choice this week, especially in his first series at home. Watch the news closely, because if Saito can't go, Broxton is a must-play.

George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Tampa Bay Rays	3	Hitter	1.21	--
vs. Seattle Mariners	3	Hitter	1.21	--

Acquired in the offseason trade for pitcher Erik Bedard, Sherrill could provide the most immediate impact of any player Baltimore acquired. He will have two good series off the bat to prove his value as closer. The Rays have been dangerous this spring, and it could be tough for Sherrill to live up to his 1.50 career ERA and 1.00 WHIP he has against them. The second series will be against his old team. He has never faced them in the past, but if anyone knows him well it will be their coaching staff. For his career, Sherrill has a 1.59 ERA in nine appearances at Camden Yards.

Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Baltimore Orioles	3	Hitter	--	2.89
at New York Yankees	3	Hitter	--	2.89

Percival will be looking to add to his 324 career saves this year in Tampa. However, he did not pitch in 2006 and appeared in just 34 games with the Cardinals last year. Percival has not faced either of these teams in the past two years. Against the Orioles he has a career 5.86 ERA in 42 games. Part of the problem is Camden Yards, where he has a 6.10 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He has been better against the Yankees, sporting a career 2.83 ERA and a 1.09 career WHIP. He has also has a solid 1.31 ERA at Yankee Stadium.

Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Los Angeles Dodgers	3	Neutral	--	1.86
at Milwaukee Brewers	3	Hitter	--	1.86

Given a chance to close games in the second half last year, Wilson used some solid innings to cement his chance for a closing role this year. After the All-Star break last year, Wilson had a 2.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, holding batters to just a .188 average. He also had six saves. Wilson has faced the Dodgers eight times, posting a 2.57 ERA with seven strikeouts in seven innings. He has yet to face the Brewers in his career, but they were a top-five offense last year and could give him problems to begin the season.

Brandon Lyon, Arizona Diamondbacks

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Cincinnati Reds	3	Hitter	--	4.02
at Colorado Rockies	3	Hitter	--	4.02

This figures to be a tough early test for the D-Backs closer. Lyon has reliever Tony Pena breathing down his neck for the closing job, and he will open in two of the top home run parks in the league. However, Lyon pitched well in both of these ballparks last year, allowing one hit and no runs over six innings combined. While he still may falter as the closer (just 25 career saves), he has shown enough in the past to warrant being a great play this week.

Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Chicago White Sox	3	Neutral	4.31	--
at Oakland Athletics	3	Pitcher	--	5.77

It might not always be pretty, but Borowski got the job done more often than not last year, saving 45 games. His ERA could be a killer however, as he had two months where it was more than 7.00. Not helping matters are the numbers he posted against these teams last year. In 7 1/3 innings against the White Sox, Borowski had a 4.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, although he managed five saves. Against the Athletics, Borowski had a 9.82 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP. If you need saves, he should still be a quality play this week.

C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Seattle Mariners	3	Neutral	--	2.37
at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	3	Pitcher	--	2.37

Despite some injury problems in camp, Wilson has been named the closer to begin the season. The team will now hope they get the Wilson that showed up in July last year (1.59 ERA, 0.79 WHIP) and not the Wilson that closed out the season in September with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. That could be tough as he struggled against both teams last year, posting a 5.40 ERA against the Mariners and a 4.66 ERA against the Angels. Still he had three saves in those games and could be in line for a couple this week.

Jeremy Accardo, Toronto Blue Jays

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at New York Yankees	3	Hitter	--	2.83
vs. Boston Red Sox	3	Hitter	1.39	--

Accardo will again be called on to close to open the season as he returns to the role he flourished in last year. Not given the job until May, Accardo finished the season with 30 saves. He should provide everything aside from strikeouts for your team until closer B.J. Ryan (elbow) is ready to take over. He was also great when he needed to be last year, holding the Yankees and Red Sox hitters to .138 and .111 averages, respectively, and allowing just one run in 16 2/3 innings combined against the offensive juggernauts.

Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Washington Nationals	3	Hitter	3.98	--
at Cincinnati Reds	3	Hitter	--	5.49

Another closer being given a shot due to injury, Gordon is set to hold down the closing duties in Philly for at least the first week of the season. Gordon is just one season removed from 34 saves in 2006. However, he struggled last year with injuries and was not the same in the second half. He finished the season with a 4.72 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and only 32 strikeouts in 40 innings. Still, if you are looking for saves, he could have an opportunity or two before closer Brad Lidge (knee) returns.

Solid Choices

Heath Bell, San Diego Padres

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Houston Astros	4	Pitcher	2.64	--
vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	3	Pitcher	2.64	--

Bell had an outstanding start to the 2007 season, posting a 0.54 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings last April. He also had 17 strikeouts. Surprisingly, Bell was a worse pitcher at home last year. In 44 1/3 innings at PETCO Park he finished with 2.64 ERA and 43 strikeouts, although he had a WHIP of 0.75. He also had an ERA of 3.86 against the Astros and no-hit the Dodgers in 7 2/3 innings against them last year. He doesn't figure to get many saves, but his other stats make him a good play this week.

Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland Indians

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Chicago White Sox	3	Neutral	1.64	--
at Oakland Athletics	3	Pitcher	--	1.32

The anti-Borowski, Betancourt had a miniscule ERA of 1.47 and a WHIP of 0.76 last year, although he picked up just three saves. Betancourt was good against the White Sox last year, though not as dominant as his overall numbers with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP allowed. He held the Athletics to a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP and hasn't allowed a run at McAfee Coliseum since 2005. Like most effective fantasy setup men, Betancourt should give you quality numbers in all but the saves category.

Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Oakland Athletics	2	Pitcher	--	2.16
at Toronto Blue Jays	3	Hitter	--	2.16

Okajima was used in one game in Japan, throwing one inning and allowing just one walk and one strikeout. He came out of nowhere last year and posted an amazing 0.83 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP prior to the All-Star break. He tailed off significantly (4.56 ERA after the All-Star break), which could have been a sign of fatigue. Still, he should not have any fatigue to begin the year and is a solid play in the first week of the season.

Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	4	Pitcher	2.52	--
vs. Kansas City Royals	3	Pitcher	2.52	--

With Nathan signing a long-term deal in Minnesota, Neshek is once again stuck as a solid fantasy setup man for your team. He does not have any career saves, but he had a 2.94 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings last year. However, his numbers shot up after the All-Star break as he had a 4.82 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in the second half. Still, he was lights out in April in '07 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in the first month of the season. He could start out this year hot, so ride him until he cools off.

Others to Consider

Bob Howry, Chicago Cubs

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Milwaukee Brewers	3	Hitter	2.82	--
vs. Houston Astros	3	Hitter	2.82	--

Even with Wood being named the closer, Howry could still see some save opportunities if they fall on back-to-back days. He was great for the Cubs bullpen down the stretch last year, posting a 1.85 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 39 second-half innings. He held the Brewers scoreless in 8 1/3 innings of work last year and limited the Astros to a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight innings. He likely won't get many save chances in the foreseeable future, but he could still be a solid option due to his stats in other categories.

Manny Delcarmen, Boston Red Sox

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Oakland Athletics	2	Pitcher	--	1.88
at Toronto Blue Jays	3	Hitter	--	1.88

Delcarmen spent most of the first three months of the season at Triple-A Pawtucket but was strong in the second half for the Red Sox as he had a 2.16 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings. He was also at his best in September, posting a 1.59 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP and nine strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. So far this season he has allowed one hit in one inning during the team's second game in Japan. He would be worth a start if you are looking to boost your ERA and WHIP categories.

Kazuo Fukumori, Texas Rangers

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Seattle Mariners	3	Neutral	--	N/A
at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	3	Pitcher	--	N/A

Fukumori is set to slot in as the team's setup man for Wilson. He has been lights out this spring, allowing just five hits and two unearned runs in nine innings. He also has eight strikeouts. While those are just spring numbers, they should give some indication of how he will do when he faces major league hitters for the first time in a regular season game. If you are really desperate for ERA, WHIP or K's, he could be worth a start, but it also might be prudent to wait until he has proven himself when the games matter.

Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
vs. Milwaukee Brewers	3	Hitter	1.53	--
vs. Houston Astros	3	Hitter	1.53	--

Although he may have the best stuff in the Cubs bullpen, the team wants him setting up Wood because of Marmol's superior durability. He showed he could be a beast last year by compiling a 1.43 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in just 69 1/3 innings. He shut down the Brewers last year with just two hits allowed versus 11 strikeouts in six innings of work. The Astros hitters fared no better with a matching two hits and 11 strikeouts in 8 1/3 frames. He may not get saves right now, but he should give you a great boost in the other categories.

Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks

Opponent	Games	Advantage	Home ERA, 2007	Away ERA, 2007
at Cincinnati Reds	3	Hitter	--	2.88
at Colorado Rockies	3	Hitter	--	2.88

Pena has the stuff to close at the major league level but will cede the position to Lyon for now. Last year he put up solid numbers with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 63 strikeouts. He was especially good against the Rockies as he did not allow one run and struck out seven in 8 2/3 innings. Against the Reds he had a 1.93 ERA in 4 2/3 innings, although his WHIP was 2.14. He should provide a solid boost to your ERA and WHIP categories to start the season.

Disabled List

Brad Lidge (knee), Philadelphia Phillies

B.J. Ryan (elbow), Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Ray (elbow), Baltimore Orioles

Fernando Rodney (shoulder), Detroit Tigers

Scot Shields (forearm), Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Kiko Calero (shoulder), Oakland Athletics

Joel Zumaya (shoulder), Detroit Tigers

Henry Owens (shoulder), Florida Marlins

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.