Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Strategy: Draft Blueprint - Auction

March 3, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by KFFL Staff

Salary cap leagues are becoming more common these days, and this means every year, more and more people are participating in auction drafts. It's easy to see why. They make every owner feel just THAT much more like a living, breathing GM - except for the salary cap part. Then again, you won't be responsible for generating revenue in a market like Tampa Bay. You can also head into every season knowing that you have a shot at the title – unlike the Kansas City Royals - if you make the right moves. (Sigh. Someday Bud Selig might get it.)

The best feature of an auction draft is that you have the opportunity to land any player you want. Now, you can't simply own a roster littered with first- and second-round talent (unless your fellow owners have absolutely no grasp of some basic economic concepts). But if you want any player badly enough, you can have him. (We'll talk about why that MIGHT not be the best strategy, though.) The worst feature? Your draft could last longer than the long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses in which Bull Durham's Crash Davis so passionately believes. (That's three days, for the uninitiated, and no, that's not my favorite line.) We all have the same affliction, though - an unhealthy fixation with fantasy baseball.

Whether this will be your first experience with an auction draft, or you just need some help revising your game plan, this is for you. The more you know, as they say. To have a successful draft at an auction, you must be able to gauge the value of the players available in your draft and have some semblance of a strategy before the draft begins. With an understanding of both, you can formulate a plan with which you'll be most comfortable; without either, you'll be totally lost.

VALUE

Just like in straight drafts, elements such as the importance of pitching versus hitting, positional scarcity and your league type will go a long way toward determining the worth of players.

Factors

Before jumping into the player pool, you must understand the factors involved in determining a player's worth. (Note to readers: I used hypothetical dollar values for the players in the examples solely for the illustration; their prices, taken from another source, don't reflect my or the site's views.)

First and foremost, the debate about the importance of hitters versus pitchers takes center stage. Most fantasy pundits agree that you should allocate more of your budget to hitters than to pitchers. Why? It's quite simple. In a typical 5 x 5 league, one hitter can contribute in all five categories (HRs, RBI, runs, SBs and BA) during the course of a game. A pitcher, whether it's a starter or reliever, can at most contribute to four of the five (wins, saves, Ks, ERA and WHIP); a pitcher cannot earn both a win and a save. There are also more cumulative categories (four: HRs, RBI, runs and SBs) for hitters than there are for pitchers (three: wins, saves and strikeouts). A hitter has more totals to which he can add than a pitcher has. Conversely, there are more ratio categories (two: ERA and WHIP) for pitchers than there are for hitters (one: BA). If a pitcher has a poor outing, he can hurt you in two categories; if a hitter has a bad day at the plate, he can only hurt you in only one. Pitchers are also less predictable. All of this explains why the top position player, say New York Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez, might be worth $43 in a league with the standard $260 salary cap. The top pitcher, Minnesota Twins SP Johan Santana, might be worth $35, and the top reliever, Yankees CL Mariano Rivera, may go for $32.

Another determinant is positional scarcity. Just as it affects draft positions in a snake draft, this element also has a large impact on a player's price. How valuable is a catcher versus a third baseman? In a standard league of 12 teams, you can expect to field a team with one of the former and one of the latter. A top catcher like Cleveland Indians C Victor Martinez could fetch $25 or more, while the top man at the hot corner, like A-Rod, can go for $43 or more. The drop-off from the top player to the 12th best player is more stunning at catcher, however. Would you rather have aging San Diego Padres C Mike Piazza at $10 or Texas Rangers 3B Hank Blalock at about $20? Some positions are so deep that you can afford to wait and take chances. For instance, you stand a better chance of landing a productive $1 outfielder than you do a productive $1 second sacker.

You also might take into account factors like position eligibility and the team for which a player plays. From here you'll want to assign each player a base value. You can use a guide, and it might be wiser to use several to get some sort of consensus. But you need something to help you determine player prices. If you have experience with straight or snake drafts, but not with auctions, think of your list of base values as a cheat sheet. You can even use a cheat sheet for a straight draft as a loose basis for your values. If you wouldn't spend an early round choice on a certain player, why would you spend a lot of money on him?

Adaptation

To determine a player's value, though, you've only just begun. You now understand the concepts that guides use to evaluate players. Next you must adapt an approach that is aligned more with your league's format. Why might a player like St. Louis Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols be worth $42 in a guide but $47 in your league? The difference may not seem like much, but those extra few dollars can make or break you.

What kind of league is yours? A keeper league would make younger players slightly more valuable than the older ones. For instance, in a standard league, some owners might be willing to spend a few dollars more than a projected value of $10 on Pittsburgh Pirates SP Zach Duke, 22, if he's available. They might presume he has many more successful years ahead of him, and the price at which they could land him now might make him a value player (a productive player at a reduced salary) in later seasons. The salary of Atlanta Braves SP Tim Hudson, 30, isn't likely to vary much from a projection of, say, $18. And a few owners may not feel comfortable spending a projected $27 on New York Yankees SP Randy Johnson, 42, who looks to be on the downside of his career. In a keeper format, owners with value players already on their roster can afford to be more liberal spenders come draft day. That could easily make Johnson worth the price for those owners. How long can you keep a player at his current salary in your keeper league? If it's only for a couple of years, you may not want to throw too much extra cash at Duke. If it's for five, it makes the gamble that much more intriguing. If your keeper league has reserves or minor league spots, you may need to factor that into the equation.

If you're in a league that's deeper than the standard 23 players (14 hitters and nine pitchers), the value of the superstar players can go up just a bit, as there are now fewer of them in relation to the overall talent pool. You should also have a chance to grab a couple more players on the cheap. Positional scarcity is also magnified in deeper leagues. What if you must start two catchers in your league? Not many would be sad with Minnesota Twins C Joe Mauer at about $20. But in a standard league, it's also reasonable to think that an 11th-ranked catcher like New York Mets C Paul Lo Duca, at $9, is at least serviceable. Add an extra starting catcher for your deeper league, and you may be shuddering at the thought of having to spend a couple bucks on a guy like 19th-ranked Tampa Bay Devil Rays C Toby Hall. You may be willing to shell out a few more dollars to ensure that you grab two good catchers. It may be even smarter to lock up a very good option at the position and take a flier on a guy like St. Louis Cardinals C Yadier Molina for a buck.

In addition, if your player universe is NL-Only or AL-Only versus all of MLB, that can narrow or widen the scope of positional scarcity. If you're able to choose from all third basemen, the bar starts at A-Rod, and you also have New York Mets 3B David Wright, Florida Marlins 3B Miguel Cabrera and Chicago Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez. But, do you see a pattern? The last three play in the National League. Owners in an NL-only league might be happy with any of the three, and there are some good options behind them like Houston Astros 3B Morgan Ensberg and Atlanta 3B Chipper Jones. Granted, in an AL-Only league there are good players available behind Rodriguez, but he's already the top option at third, and there's more of a drop-off after him. His value significantly increases in an AL-Only league.

STRATEGY

Now that you have a grasp on player worth, it’s time to ponder your approach. Your strategy can consist of targeting certain positions and players or allotting your budget, or you could just achieve a better understanding of the nuances of an auction draft. Obviously, the object is to get players for less than what you perceive their draft value to be but who will have a greater value when the season ends. Usually, you want to avoid overpaying for a player, although you can do it on rare occasions. For the most part, you should try to be conservative.

Tactics

Over the years, fantasy baseball strategists have attempted to devise perfect formulas for a successful draft. They all involve schemes based on the factors discussed earlier.

Most experts agree that it's smarter to devote more money to your hitters (very roughly, two-thirds of your budget) than your pitchers. From there, you can use your base values to set aside a range of money that you'd like to spend on each position or player. For instance, you may decide that you're only willing to dedicate $25 to $30 on relief pitchers, because you're confident that you can nab some value with some cheaper options. Or, you may set a cap of $32 on a player like Colorado Rockies 1B Todd Helton, who may have a base value of $27, because you expect him to have a better season than others project.

You may be unwavering in your desire to land some of the top players at the scarce positions because what you see below those players makes you a little ill, whereas you'd be happy with a number of players at the deeper positions, especially at cheaper salaries. Or, you can concentrate on the scarce statistics (stolen bases and saves) by locking up a dependable threat (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2B Chone Figgins and Twins CL Joe Nathan, respectively) in them. Exercise caution when bidding on these players, though; if you get caught in a bidding war, you may spend more than you can afford and fail to realize that other players can help in those categories without putting as much strain on your budget.

A complementary approach is to give up on a category or two in hopes of running away with the others. The categories that lend themselves to this approach most are stolen bases, wins and saves. If you give up on, for example, saves, you wouldn't spend any money on closers. This would allow you to spend more on high-caliber players at other positions, thus seemingly increasing your chances to succeed at them. It's possible to win this way but extremely risky; any miscalculations on draft day will probably leave you in the basement for the majority of the season. If you come out of the draft with a team sorely lacking in one or two areas but strong in others, your best option is to make a trade at some point.

Some more advanced strategies boast their own acronyms, like LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces). In LIMA, you'd devote no more than $60 or $70 of your $260 budget to pitching, acquiring no more than two or three starters and possibly one stud closer. After that, you would only draft very cheap pitchers who boast a 2.0 or better strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio and average at least 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and allow fewer than 1.0 home runs per nine innings (HR/9). Some prognosticators believe that such statistics are indicators of future success. The rest of the money, no more than roughly $30 per player, would go to hitting, in which ideally you should be quite strong. Obviously, if you made poor assessments of hitters on draft day, that would throw a wrench in the plans.

RIMA (RIsk MAnagement) also advises you to drop a lot more cash on hitters. Essentially, a RIMA approach measures the reliability of players and advocates overspending in order to acquire players that are proven performers to reduce risk. By devoting more of your budget to such players, however, you increase the chance that an unforeseen circumstance such as an injury to one of your stars could cripple your team, leaving you with mostly cheap players to fill the void. And once again, poor hitter evaluation can be devastating.

There are other strategies as well, but most often, owners go into any draft seeking to put together a well balanced squad, a team that does well in all categories. There's something to be said for simplicity; many owners are already aware of these different tactics. Draft strategy is an important part of your preparation, but remember: there are no perfect strategies. Like in real baseball, where the situation changes after every pitch, in fantasy drafts, the situation changes after every pick. The best fantasy drafters are the ones who can adapt most quickly when things take an unexpected turn. It’s vital that you maintain some flexibility when this happens.

Finer Points

No matter your strategy, drafts are unpredictable, especially in the early stages. Enjoy the excitement, but don't get carried away or you could make a mistake that'll ruin your draft. You can only account for so many factors, but once an owner brings up the first player, all hell can break loose. You have to be willing to bend your own rules.

If you don't already, get to know your fellow owners. Are there any hometown fans in your group? They may save you some money by drafting marginal guys from their team or overspending on their favorite players. Do you play with a guy who thinks he's a scout? If you're in a keeper league and a fellow owner typically likes to shoot for mostly cheap players and rookies in hopes of scoring value, you can feel comfortable engaging in a bidding war with him in the early goings. And keep tabs on your opponents' rosters. If one is desperate for a second baseman, you might goad him into spending more than he'd like.

Don't be afraid to spend your money. It won't do you any good if you have some left. If the bid on Pujols is at your ceiling, but the owner is wavering, go another dollar. (It might even behoove you to sound a little shaky yourself, even if you're not.) At the very least, you've forced him to spend more; at most, you get Pujols. But also beware of inflation. You can tell when multiple owners have their eyes on a certain player; don't get caught up in that. Just like runs on a position, salaries for players at the same position can skyrocket when the top ones go quickly. If you missed out V-Mart and Mauer, and the next four or five catchers go for way too much, be patient. You'll likely have your choice of cheap options at that position, and you can afford to take chances.

Remember, unlike in snake drafts, the top players don't have to be the first to go. But often the names of superstars surface first, and that's when dollars fly. That may be your shot to steal a player. Soon after the likes of Santana, Philadelphia Phillies OF Bobby Abreu and Rivera are gone, bring up a lesser regarded player like Houston Astros SP Andy Pettitte, or delve deeper and toss out a name like Milwaukee Brewers OF Geoff Jenkins. Most owners aren't ready to spend money on those sorts of players at the beginning, enabling you to score them at a reduced rate.

Finally, pick up a couple of $1 players that have fallen through the cracks at the end. If no one wanted San Diego Padres OF Mike Cameron, why not take a chance? If Chicago Cubs SS Ronny Cedeno goes undrafted, what's it going to hurt to spend $1 on him and see whether or not he actually pans out?

SUMMARY

Salary cap leagues are no longer a niche format. This means plenty of auction drafts are taking place too. You have to put more time into your preparation for them, but they can be a lot more thrilling. To be successful, you need to comprehend the elements of player value and your league's setup. You also need to develop your strategy and learn some subtleties. Baseball is a thinking man's game; so too is an auction draft for fantasy baseball.