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Fantasy Baseball Draft GuideStarting Pitchers - NL
By Nicholas Minnix Tier 11) Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros
PROS: Oswalt established himself as the premier fantasy pitcher in the National League by winning 20 games for the second consecutive season. He's one of baseball's hardest throwers and workers, he has one of the best curves in the game and he turns 28-years-old in August. CONS: Not many. He struggled with a groin injury in 2003, but other than that he's been healthy. He does pitch in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park, but lifetime there he's 45-14 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, standards that held up last year. BOTTOM LINE: The Mississippi native came to camp ready to roll. You can't complain if he's the ace of your fantasy staff. Tier 22) Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals
PROS: The reigning Cy Young Award winner is coming off his best season as a major leaguer, when he went 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 213 Ks. He pitches for one of the best teams in the NL and came to spring training in top physical shape. CONS: As a Toronto Blue Jay, Carp missed a total of 112 games in 2002 and all of 2003 with a shoulder ailment that required a couple of surgeries. St. Louis took a chance on him in 2004. It paid off, but he did pitch a career-high 241.2 innings last year. BOTTOM LINE: The former first-round selection is healthy now and only turns 31 in April, so there's little reason to believe that he can't at least approach last year's outstanding effort. Tier 33) Pedro Martinez | New York Mets
PROS: The 34-year-old showed that a move to the NL was just what the doctor ordered for a return to fantasy prominence. He has averaged a shade more than 16 victories a year since 2002 and has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in eight of the last nine seasons and a sub-1.00 WHIP in five of the last seven. CONS: The doctor may need to order more for him in 2006. Martinez sustained damaged cartilage in his right big toe last September, forcing the Mets to shut him down. His delivery places more stress on the extremity, and he uses gel padding in his shoe to ease the discomfort. With every piece of bad news, it seems more likely that he'll miss his Opening Day start. BOTTOM LINE: If this toe injury lingers throughout spring training and into the season, it'll have a huge impact on Martinez's draft position – and value. When healthy, he's one of the best. 4) Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres
PROS: An All-Star for the first time in 2005, Peavy led the NL in strikeouts with 216, and he led the NL in ERA a season earlier. It's certainly to his advantage that he'll make about half of his starts at PETCO Park. CONS: Minor ailments have bothered him for the past couple of seasons, causing him to miss a start here and there. The latest appears to be some slight tears in the retinas in both of his eyes. In addition, the Padres don't exactly have an explosive offense. BOTTOM LINE: An All-Star for the first time last season, Peavy is only 24 and one of the best young pitchers in baseball, making him a very safe choice. Monitor the eye problem, though he should be fine. Tier 45) Andy Pettitte | Houston Astros
PROS: At 33, Pettitte enjoyed his best season as a major leaguer, with a 17-9 record, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 171 Ks. He was unbelievable after the break, going 11-2 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. CONS: Pettitte cited extra rest for his elbow, which he had surgically repaired after the 2004 season, as the reason for skipping the World Baseball Classic. It's not a huge cause for concern, but he is aware of it, and he's about week behind the other pitchers in camp as far as conditioning. He'll also head into the season without workout comrade SP Roger Clemens. BOTTOM LINE: It's unreasonable to expect Pettitte to revisit 2005's numbers, but he's still a top option in the NL. Follow his progress in the spring before making your final call. 6) Dontrelle Willis | Florida Marlins
PROS: Willis reverted to his delivery from his rookie season, and it propelled him to runner-up for the NL Cy Young Award. He posted career bests across the board, including wins (22), ERA (2.63), WHIP (1.13), Ks (170) and BBs (55) and shutouts (5). He gets to pitch in spacious Dolphins Stadium for another season. CONS: The main concern is that Dontrelle lost most of his supporting cast. With a green team around him, he'll be hard-pressed to duplicate or even approach his win total from last year. Will that cause him to try to be too perfect? BOTTOM LINE: Willis is an incredible talent and a definite four-category contributor, but with so much uncertainty surrounding his squad, how much of an impact he has in those four remains a question mark. 7) Jason Schmidt | San Francisco Giants
PROS: Schmidt is a proven vet who has averaged nearly 30 starts and 15 wins per year over the past four seasons, all with San Francisco. He's also struck nearly a batter an inning over his 11-year career. The 33-year-old calls pitcher-friendly SBC Park home. CONS: Schmidt has dealt with injuries in the past, and he made two trips to the DL last year, one for a shoulder injury and the other for a groin problem. He never really found consistency while having his worst season since moving to the west coast. Whispers surfaced that the Giants wanted to trade him or wouldn't pick up his option because he'd lost some velocity. BOTTOM LINE: The injuries played a part in his decreased power, and Schmidt is creating some buzz in camp and appears healthy. He could slip, but look for him to have a bounce-back campaign. 8) Carlos Zambrano | Chicago Cubs
PROS: Zambrano hasn't emerged as the consensus ace of the Cubs' staff merely because he's been able to stay healthy. He turns 25 in June, but in the past three seasons he's averaged a shade more than 14 wins a year. He has a career ERA of 3.26, and he's improved his WHIP and strikeout totals in every season of his five-year career. He lost about 15 to 20 pounds this past offseason. CONS: He's logged 214, 209.2 and 223.1 innings, respectively, over those last three years, a high number for his young arm. He still walks more batters than he should, and he gave up a career-high 21 HRs last year. BOTTOM LINE: Zambrano is a workhorse, so his workload isn't much of a concern. Hopefully a svelte Carlos can keep the walks and gopher balls down, because they can be a dangerous combo. 9) Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers
PROS: Sheets is one of the up-and-coming power pitchers in the mold of Roger Clemens. He's averaged nearly a strikeout an inning in his five-year career, and he's just a season removed from 2004, when he won 12 games with a 2.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 264 Ks in 237 innings. CONS: After such a fantastic 2004 campaign, an inner ear infection and a torn muscle in his shoulder ruined his follow-up in 2005. He started 22 games, down from the 34 in each of the previous three years, and he struggled to maintain consistency. He also pitches for the Brewers. Sheets is working toward overcoming shoulder injury mentally, and the team is taking the cautious approach. BOTTOM LINE: He may not be ready for Opening Day, which causes him to slip, but Milwaukee has a lot of exciting talent. When he fully recovers, he should step in and deliver as the front-liner of a team on the rise. Tier 512) Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves
PROS: He's a very good control pitcher with a career ERA of 3.33 and WHIP of 1.24. Atlanta has named him the Opening Day starter over mainstay SP John Smoltz, and the team believes he's ready to take over as leader of the staff. CONS: He's proven to be quite hittable in the past couple of years; opponents hit .267 against him in 2004 (with the Oakland Athletics) and .265 last year. An oblique injury sidetracked him for about a month in 2005, which was similar to (but not as severe as) an injury he's sustained in 2004. BOTTOM LINE: Hudson filled a similar leadership role with the A's for several seasons, so he should have no problems there. The 30-year-old never had injury troubles prior to 2004 and he should be healthy now. He's reliable and poised for a good season. 13) Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants
PROS: Cain has been the organization's top prospect for a couple of years, and in a late-season call-up, he performed admirably. He went 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .151 BAA in seven starts. He's a hard thrower who averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors. CONS: He's just 21, so his inexperience is likely to get him into some trouble. Before his call-up, Cain was 10-5 with an unimpressive 4.39 ERA last year at Triple-A Fresno, although that could have been attributed to his frustration over not getting a shot with the big club sooner. Despite his power, he only mustered 30 Ks in 46.1 innings with the Giants. BOTTOM LINE: He has unquestionable talent and a great work ethic, but it's risky to believe that you can rely on him for an entire season because of his age. Don't fall victim to the hype, or you'll reach for him too early. 14) Zach Duke | Pittsburgh Pirates
PROS: Duke is the latest in a prominent line of promising lefties that the Pirates organization has turned out in the past few seasons. He mowed down the competition at every level in the minors, and nothing changed when he hit the Show: 8-2, 1.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. CONS: His age, because he turns 23 in April and scouts have probably had plenty of looks at him by now. He's never known much adversity, so if he encounters any, it's difficult to gauge how he'll react. His team doesn't make him a candidate to record 20 victories anytime soon. BOTTOM LINE: He's a bright pitcher who's shown the ability to make adjustments, albeit in a brief period of time. Select Duke expecting that he'll go through some growing pains, but know that he should be a solid contributor. 15) John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves
PROS: Smoltz dispelled doubts about his reconstructed arm's ability to withstand a return to the rotation when he logged 229.2 IP after pitching a combined 226.1 IP combined over the previous three as the team's closer. His other numbers (14 wins, 3.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 169 Ks) weren't too shabby either. CONS: Smoltzie hasn't tossed that many innings since 1997, so it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up. Last year he dealt with some inflammation in his shoulder that kept him from finishing the regular season or contributing much in the postseason. BOTTOM LINE: He keeps himself in shape, so the workload may not be a problem. He's one of the most competitive baseball players ever, and he's taken some attention away from himself by yielding the top spot to SP Tim Hudson. He can still get it done for you, at least as your No. 2. 16) Aaron Harang | Cincinnati Reds
PROS: Harang, 27, enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2005, garnering 11 wins with a 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 163 Ks. He doesn't hurt himself with walks (just 168 in 527.1 major league innings) and has a K/9 ratio of 6.72 for his major league career. CONS: He'd shown only flashes of his potential before last season, dealing with the occasional injury and spending some time in the minors as recently as 2004. Opponents batted .267 against him, an improvement on his career number (now .274). Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball. BOTTOM LINE: Many pitchers take a while to develop, but Harang's situation still doesn't lend itself to mighty fantasy success. He should help you a good bit in all four categories, but don't expect TOO much from a guy who is pitching for the Reds. 17) Kerry Wood | Chicago Cubs
PROS: A former first-round pick, Wood has displayed marvelous talent when he's been healthy. He boasts a career ERA of 3.67 and has fanned more than a batter an inning in seven fractured seasons in the majors. CONS: As with fellow SP Mark Prior, injuries have bedeviled this 28-year-old talent. The latest has him recovering from shoulder surgery, and he'll begin the year on the disabled list. While he's waiting, he'll have arthroscopic surgery on his knee, which shouldn't affect his timetable much. He should be ready to pitch sometime in late April or early May. BOTTOM LINE: It was uncertain that Wood would even join the rotation when he returned, but manager Dusty Baker laid that to rest. Wood should have a lot of detractors come draft day, so you can afford to wait a bit and stash him on your disabled list if you grab him. His ability is tempting, but know the risks. Tier 618) Mark Mulder | St. Louis Cardinals
PROS: The Cardinals' No. 2 man is a proven winner in the regular season (nearly 18 per year since 2001). His ERA is usually in the mid-3.00 range, and he's been pretty durable in his six-year career. CONS: His BAA has risen in each of the past four years, from .232 in 2002 to .273 last year, and his walk numbers have climbed as well, leading to his worst WHIP (1.38) since his rookie season. He finished last year in a tailspin, going 0-4 with a 8.31 ERA in his last seven starts. He's been known to follow a monstrous first half with a weak second half, and vice versa. BOTTOM LINE: Mulder, 28, is a good bet to get you wins and a solid ERA while chipping in for the other cats. If you nab him and he pulls off a dynamite pre-break run, you might want to deal him. 19) Doug Davis | Milwaukee Brewers
PROS: A relative unknown until he joined Milwaukee, Davis snuck up on opponents and delivered 12 wins, a 3.39 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 166 Ks in 2004. He followed that with 11 victories, a 3.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP last season. His 208 Ks led all NL southpaws. CONS: He gave up nearly twice as many homers last year (26) as 2004 (14). He could stand to cut down on the walks (93 in 222.2 IP). BOTTOM LINE: Another starter on the up-and-coming Brewers, Davis is a better bet than teammate SP Chris Capuano because of his ratios and high strikeout capabilities. 20) Noah Lowry | San Francisco Giants
PROS: After a successful 2004 in which he didn't lose a decision and posted a 3.78 ERA and struck out 72 in 92 innings, Lowry faced big expectations last year. He struggled for the first three months, but he gathered himself and went 8-4 with a 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 85 Ks in 100 innings after the All-Star break. He led the team in innings, wins, ERA and strikeouts. CONS: His first half of 2005 (5-9, 5.07 ERA and 1.52 WHIP) was atrocious. Hitters had apparently caught up to him. It's difficult to gauge whether or not this was merely growing pains without a larger sample size. BOTTOM LINE: The 25-year-old Lowry is best when he's aggressive, and he showed the ability to adjust. The next step is showing that he can stay ahead of the curve. He's a good bet to do it. 21) Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks
PROS: In his third season in the majors, Webb logged a career-high 229 innings while winning 14 games and posting a 3.54 ERA. He made huge strides by reducing his free passes from 119 in 2004 to 59 in 2005 – in 21 more innings. CONS: His batting average against has increased in each of his three seasons, from .212 in his rookie year to .248 in 2004 to .265 last year, so overall his WHIP hasn't dropped the way you'd like from a guy who issues less bases on balls. You'd like to see a sinkerballer not give up so many home runs (21) either. BOTTOM LINE: Webb has made strides each year and there's no reason to believe that he'll regress. He should net double-digit wins and make a nice dent in your ERA. 22) Chris Young | San Diego Padres
PROS: In his first full season in the majors, Young posted a respectable line (12-7, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 137 Ks) in 164.2 innings. He actually had a lower WHIP (1.20) and BAA (.245) at the pitcher's hell known as Ameriquest Field, showing his mental toughness. He moves to a ballpark that should be more conducive to success. He's tall (6-10), which gives him good leverage. CONS: He fell apart in the month of July, with a 10.18 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. Fatigue seemed to be a huge factor - he had trouble making it past the fifth inning in his starts after the break and shut it down in September. Unlike New York Yankees SP Randy Johnson, Young is still trying to figure out how to use his height for generate more power (and strikeouts). The Padres won't score him nearly as many runs. BOTTOM LINE: Young should enjoy the change of scenery and hopefully learned to improve his conditioning. He did have a K/9 of about 7.5, and that should get better, but it's a stretch to believe that he'll exceed his win total from 2005. 23) Derek Lowe | Los Angeles Dodgers
PROS: The transition from the AL to the NL was a smooth one for Lowe, who put up his best numbers since his first year as a fulltime starter with the Boston Red Sox in 2002 (3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and career-high 146 Ks). He really came on in the second half, going 7-6 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and holding opponents to a .235 BAA and emerging as L.A.'s de facto ace. CONS: Lowe has never been the No. 1 on a staff before, and you'd like to see him give up fewer than 28 home runs (by far a career-worst) pitching half the time at Dodger Stadium. BOTTOM LINE: Lowe doesn't hurt himself with walks, and an improved offense should give him a shot at increasing his wins. Look for him to build on his solid post-break numbers. 24) Matt Morris | San Francisco Giants
PROS: Morris has averaged nearly 16 wins per year over the past five years, and he has a lifetime ERA of 3.61. He's excited about the move to San Francisco, which is a little more advantageous to pitchers. He'll become the Giants' No. 2 man. He has great control. CONS: His ERA has slowly escalated in the past couple of seasons (4.72 in 2004, 4.11 last year) and his BAA has gone up in each of the past four. He might miss the run support of the Cardinals. BOTTOM LINE: What you see is what you get with Morris. He won't walk many and will give his team a shot to win on most nights. The move to the west coast should be a productive one for the intense pitcher. 25) Mark Prior | Chicago Cubs
PROS: He has one of the nastiest repertoires in baseball, and he showed his capabilities in 2003, his first full season, when he went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 245 Ks. CONS: You know the deal: Prior, 25, hasn't been the same since. Injuries, mostly arm troubles, have derailed him over the past two years. Early last year he took a hard liner off the arm and suffered a freak injury, providing more evidence that he's cursed. BOTTOM LINE: The Cubs are taking it slowly with Prior, but he should be plenty ready for 2006. Barring setbacks, he's (and this could sound crazy) a legit fantasy producer who could turn out to be a steal because of his history. Tier 726) Oliver Perez | Pittsburgh Pirates
PROS: In 2004, Perez broke out with a phenomenal season in which he finished fourth in the NL in striekouts and sixth in ERA, and he was tops in the majors with 11.0 K/9. He was poised to join the elite fantasy pitchers of 2005. CONS: Poised is one thing, accomplished is another. Sophomore slump doesn't begin to describe the letdown (7-5, 5.85 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 97 Ks in 103 innings pitched) that Perez tagged overbidding owners with last year. He hit the disabled list with a broken toe after kicking a laundry cart following a frustrating outing. BOTTOM LINE: He entered last spring with shoulder stiffness and never really found a groove. This offseason he conditioned himself and seems more determined. He's capable of more, and he should, at the least, find the happier medium between 2004's and 2005's numbers – with big strikeouts. 27) Chris Capuano | Milwaukee Brewers
PROS: What a year for the 27-year-old southpaw: 18 wins and a career-best 3.99 ERA and 176 Ks in his first full big league season. CONS: Where did that come from? Capuano has ability, but 18 his wins are more of fluke because of the great run support he received. He allowed 31 homers and 91 walks in 219 innings, and opponents hit .258 off of him. For his success, he's always given up a lot of hits and walks, even in the minors. BOTTOM LINE: Don't let the wins draw you in and make you draft him too early. Cappy should get you a decent number of strikeouts, but even on an exciting team like Milwaukee, look for him to put up fewer wins. He doesn't do much for you in the WHIP department, either. 28) John Patterson | Washington Nationals
PROS: Patterson came into his own last year by pitching 198.1 innings, more than doubling his total from any other season. He broke through in terms of ERA (3.13), WHIP (1.19) and strikeouts (185) and didn't seem to lose much steam over the course of the season. He did a fantastic job of keeping the ball down. CONS: The trick is repeating that success. Patterson pitches for the Nationals, who score about as often as the 40-Year-Old Virgin. So even if he does, it won't show up in the win column. (He had nine last year.) BOTTOM LINE: His home ballpark is certainly pitcher-friendly, but it's tough to take a guy who probably won't win you many games. He seems a candidate that would take a step backwards, but he's brimming with confidence and should avoid any major falloff. 29) Brett Myers | Philadelphia Phillies
PROS: Myers came into last season determined to attack the strike zone, and it paid off with a breakthrough season in which he won 13 games and recorded a 3.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 208 Ks. The last number was good for third in the NL. He reduced his BAA by 44 points from the previous season. CONS: It took Myers a little while to put it all together. He allowed the same numbers (31) as he did the year prior, which you can attribute at least partially to Citizens Bank Park. He's an emotional pitcher, and his problem before last year was focusing in dire situations. BOTTOM LINE: Myers is more confident in himself (and a bit mad the press thinks the Phillies need more pitching). He isn't a safe bet to keep your ERA or WHIP really low, but he shouldn't have much trouble netting you strikeouts and double-digit wins. 30) Greg Maddux | Chicago Cubs
PROS: The ageless one turns 40 this year, and although he wasn't able to nab 15 wins for the first time since 1988, he still grabbed 13 victories. He's one the greatest pitchers of his generation (as well as one of the smartest ever), and he's enjoyed a healthy career. He's also a 15-time Gold Glover, including last year's. CONS: There's not much to dislike about this vet. He doesn't have the same impact on your ERA that he used to, though. BOTTOM LINE: You know what to expect from Maddux: double-digit wins, an ERA hovering around 4.00 and pretty low WHIP. Not many strikeouts, but a fairly reliable pitcher. Tier 831) Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers
PROS: Many have always believed that Penny has the stuff to be an ace. He has great control and can strike out a batter when he needs to do it. He has posted sub-4.00 ERAs in each of the past two seasons. CONS: Nagging injuries have always limited his potential. When he's been healthy, his stamina has still left little to be desired. BOTTOM LINE: His career 4.00 ERA and 1.31 WHIP should be on the decline this year, and on the Dodgers he could get 10 wins or more. But he'll carry those lingering doubts until he proves that he can remain injury-free. He's worth a gamble when you get down this far, though. 32) Jeff Suppan | St. Louis Cardinals
PROS: Suppan tied a career-best with 16 wins and a 3.57 ERA last season, thanks largely to a blistering second half. After the break, he was 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. On the Cardinals, he can win a lot of games. CONS: Suppan, 31, boasts a lifetime 4.66 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, so it's unlikely that he has any upside. Opponents batted .275 against him, right on par with his career number. We have probably seen the best of him. BOTTOM LINE: Although he's not a great helper in the other three categories, he can steal you some wins. Last year's total may be a reach, but double digits isn't out of the question. 33) Jerome Williams | Chicago Cubs
PROS: Scouts have always believed that Williams has a lot of promise. He flashed this in his rookie year with the San Francisco Giants, when he went 7-5 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.26 ERA. CONS: His numbers haven't come close to those of his rookie season since. Once pitchers Kerry Wood and Wade Miller return from injury sometime in May, Williams is a candidate to lose his spot in the rotation. He walks too many hitters and loses focus. BOTTOM LINE: Williams will need a strong spring and April (one of his worst months as a major leaguer, historically) to make manager Dusty Baker consider leaving him in the rotation. Without the starts, Williams isn't worth much fantasy-wise. 34) Jon Lieber | Philadelphia Phillies
PROS: Lieber is a smart pitcher who pitches well in big games. He is always amongst the leaders in terms of walks allowed, and with the run support that Philadelphia can generate, he's a candidate to win 15 games. CONS: Part of the reason the Phillies can score is because of their home ballpark, which is also partially what makes Lieber not so fantasy-friendly. He's usually solid in the WHIP department, but he gave up 33 homers last year. He was better overall on the road. BOTTOM LINE: Lieber missed all of 2003 and part of 2004 recovering from Tommy John surgery. In his second full season since that operation, Lieber should settle into his role and produce numbers similar to, if not better than, last year's. Tier 935) Odalis Perez | Los Angeles Dodgers
PROS: Perez is a 28-year-old who hasn't ever really displayed dominant stuff, but he's proven that he's capable of solid fantasy seasons. In 2002 he was 15-10 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, and in 2004 he had a 3.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He doesn't hurt himself with walks. CONS: Various injuries contributed to a disappointing season last year for Perez. He's usually up and down from one year to the next. BOTTOM LINE: Perez hired a personal trainer to get in shape for this season. If he follows his short career pattern, 2006 should be an up year for Perez, making him a nice choice in the middle or later rounds. 36) Steve Trachsel | New York Mets
PROS: The 13-year vet has been around, and he knows how to pitch. He made at least 28 starts in each of the previous four years before last season. He doesn't do a whole lot to hurt you. CONS: He doesn't do much to help you, either. His career ERA (4.23) and WHIP (1.37) show his lack of upside. Last year a back injury and surgery limited him to six starts, all of which came at the end of the season. He doesn't pitch deep into games, limiting his potential for victories. BOTTOM LINE: If Trachsel can remain healthy, he can post 10 wins or more because of his craftiness and the Mets' offense. He's not likely to be a contributor anywhere else though, and his bad back will be a concern. 37) Jorge Sosa | Atlanta Braves
PROS: Sosa came out of nowhere to go 13-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.39 WHIP for Atlanta last year. He helped to rescue the team's rotation after SPs Mike Hampton and John Thomson went down with injuries. He appears to be yet another salvage job by the organization. Sosa frequently worked out of jams as both a starter and reliever. CONS: As with other pitchers who've joined the Braves, Sosa hadn't exhibited this sort of ability until he'd arrived in Atlanta, not even in the minors. He's 28 years old and was a castoff of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. His career 1.47 WHIP is the reason he finds himself in jams in the first place. BOTTOM LINE: Typically lesser pitchers who've found themselves in Atlanta lose a bit of themselves the following year. Sosa may not regress much, but don't expect him to exceed last year's wins or achieve that killer ERA again. 38) Livan Hernandez | Washington Nationals
PROS: This guy is an absolute animal, the definition of workhorse. He's pitched at least 216 innings in each of the past six years, including 246.1 last year. He pitched through a torn lateral meniscus in his knee in the second half of last year and won 15 games with a 3.98 ERA and 147 Ks. CONS: The knee injury still lingers this spring, although he did have it surgically repaired in the offseason. Hernandez's WHIP (1.43) and BAA (.284) ballooned last year, even before the knee injury came into play. He seemed to go crazy and at one point refused to pitch, although he quickly changed his mind. BOTTOM LINE: Hernandez has thrown a lot of pitches, and they've taken their toll. Whether or not he's recovered from his injury, his numbers are on the decline and, on the Nationals, he's not likely to earn a lot of wins. 39) Tom Glavine | New York Mets
PROS: Glavine has always found a way to win, and his career ERA of 3.44 is a testament to his consistency. Last year he won 13 games with a 3.53 ERA and 1.36 WHIP and allowed just 12 homers. With a more potent set of bats behind him, he could improve in the win column. CONS: This soon-to-be 40-year-old just hasn't been the same since leaving the Atlanta Braves for the Mets. He has averaged about seven fewer victories in his three seasons with New York than his last three with Atlanta. His WHIP and BAA have been much higher than his career marks in two of his three years with the Mets. BOTTOM LINE: Glavine is still an overlooked pitcher for the most part. He'll keep your ERA in check while dishing up a few wins, but you have to deal with the hit in WHIP and strikeouts. Tier 1040) Jason Vargas | Florida Marlins
PROS: Vargas worked well out of the pen for a handful of appearances before the Marlins shifted him to the rotation. In August he made six starts and went 4-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was quite successful at all of his minor league stops. CONS: In September he was 0-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts. That he took the losses wasn't the issue; his BAA skyrocketed to .283 for that month, and hitters had a beat on him. In his last two starts in August, he allowed 12 runs and 19 hits. BOTTOM LINE: Vargas is a mature kid and scouts have said that he carries himself like he belongs. His numbers may not show it this year, though, seeing as how he's only 23 and pitches for destitute Florida. 41) Paul Maholm | Pittsburgh Pirates
PROS: Maholm wasn't as heralded as some of his Pirates contemporaries, but the former 17th-rounder carried a combined minor league ERA of 2.85 and WHIP of 1.29 at six stops in less than two seasons. After his call-up last year, he went 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, including eight scoreless innings in his debut. CONS: As is the case with most of these youngsters (Maholm is 23), inexperience makes him a huge uncertainty come draft day. That he's on the Pirates doesn't help matters. He's not a big strikeouts guy. BOTTOM LINE: Maholm is a smart kid, but he'll take his lumps just like everybody else. He's one to watch because he should learn from them quickly, and he might be able to contribute in ERA. 42) Ian Snell | Pittsburgh Pirates
PROS: Last year, in Snell's second go 'round with the big club (he debuted in 2004), he went 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP while fanning 34 in 15 appearances, including five starts. He made three starts to close the season, and he posted a 2.65 and 1.29 WHIP while earning his first big league victory. He was dominant in the minors. CONS: A slight (5-11, 180) pitcher who isn't as highly regarded as SP Zach Duke and the rest, Snell's future may actually lie in the bullpen. He has a somewhat limited arsenal and the club has players with more potential waiting in the wings. BOTTOM LINE: For now Snell is competing for a rotation spot, and he pitches with some anger, like he has something to prove. He improved his changeup, giving him three quality pitches. If he wins a spot, he could be worth a late pick. 43) Jae Weong Seo | Los Angeles Dodgers
PROS: Seo was lightning in a bottle for the New York Mets last year, going 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 59 Ks in 90.1 IP. He was pretty good for New York in 2003 too, when he had a 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. When he's on, he's on: just 16 walks last year, too. CONS: A lack of consistency has been Seo's biggest knock. He was brilliant at times in the minors, but at the time of his call-up last year, he wasn't doing anything special: 7-4 with a 4.29 ERA at Triple-A Norfolk. BOTTOM LINE: Los Angeles knew they were getting a talent in Seo, who's in line for a rotation spot. As long as they can keep him focused, like he is pitching for his native South Korea, Seo is an intriguing late pick who has a chance to score double-digit wins. 44) Horacio Ramirez | Atlanta Braves
PROS: After a decent debut in 2003 in which he went 12-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 29 starts, Atlanta had hopes for Ramirez entering 2004. The lefty had a 2.39 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, thanks mostly to his early-season form, before shoulder tendonitis victimized him. CONS: Ramirez hasn't been the same since the injury. Last year he was 11-9 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He was good at times (4-0, 3.55 ERA in June), bad in others (0-1, 6.00 ERA in September). He yielded 31 bombs, leading the team. BOTTOM LINE: It's at least possible that he could lose his rotation spot to P Kyle Davies, who was impressive at times last season as a rookie. Ramirez thinks he improved the zip on his fastball over the winter, and it's his job to lose. Watch the spring, because if he can regain form, he can at least help in two categories. 45) Dave Williams | Cincinnati Reds
PROS: After he won the fifth starter's job for the Pittsburgh Pirates last spring, he came out of the gates somewhat promisingly. In May he was 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He was outstanding on the road, going 7-4 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. CONS: Williams may not have called pitching for Pittsburgh a luxury because of his 6.68 ERA there, but PNC Park was much kinder than Great American probably will be (although he did go seven innings and allowed just one run in a start there last year). BOTTOM LINE: Williams doesn't have great upside, but he's apparently a decent pitcher anytime he leaves Steeltown. Still, it's a scary thought to draft one of Cincinnati's starters outside of SP Aaron Harang. 46) Cory Lidle | Philadelphia Phillies
PROS: The Phillies' No. 3 starter was a relative beast on the road, piling up eight wins to go along with a 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He throws strikes, as evidenced by his 40 walks issued last year in 184.2 innings. He's been adequate since joining the team. CONS: He doesn't miss the plate at Citizens Bank Park, especially, which is why opponents touched him for a .323 BA to go along with his 5-5 record, 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in Philadelphia. BOTTOM LINE: Lidle is one of those guys you can pick up toward the end of draft knowing that you can only use him on certain days – mainly the ones away from Citizens Bank Park. If you do that, it's not a half-bad strategy. Tier 1147) Roger Clemens | Free Agent
PROS: Age ain't nothin' but a number, and Clemens, at 42 (for most of last year), proved it by leading the league in ERA (a ridiculous 1.87) and posting a 1.01 WHIP and 185 Ks. Run support limited him to a 13-8 record, though. CONS: Obviously, the big concerns are whether or not he'll be pitching in his 23rd season and when and where he'll be doing it. Because the Astros declined arbitration on him, he can't sign with them until May 1, and he doesn't plan to play until at least then. He recently said he may retire after the World Baseball Classic. BOTTOM LINE: He is 43-years-old and looks to be leaning towards retirement. He might catch on with someone late in the year, but for now, he's not worth the risk until his future is more clear. 48) Tomo Ohka | Milwaukee Brewers
PROS: Ohka earned a fine from Washington Nationals manager Frank Robinson last June, and within a week, he was in Milwaukee. Washington might've tried to make amends; his May was outstanding (2-0, 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP), he had a 3.33 ERA with the team before he moved on. He doesn't issue many free passes. CONS: The Nationals were concerned that Ohka was pitching hurt, and the season prior he missed significant time with an injury. He alternated poor starts with brilliant ones while with the Brewers. BOTTOM LINE: On any given day, Ohka, 30 this year, could throw a two-hit shutout or give up seven runs in three innings. He should be healthy, so he has a good shot at putting up some wins and pleasing you with his ERA, and possibly even WHIP. 49) Wade Miller | Chicago Cubs
PROS: Miller has some of the nastier stuff in the league, and he operates with power and control. In three of his four seasons before leaving Houston and heading to Boston last season, he finished with a 3.40 ERA or lower. He has averaged nearly a strikeout an inning during his seven-year career. CONS: Miller hasn't been able to escape the injury bug, missing significant time in the past two seasons. When he returned to action for the Red Sox, he was ineffective, going 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, before shutting down again. He'll begin the season on the disabled list while he tries to rehab his surgically repaired shoulder. BOTTOM LINE: Didn't the Cubs think they had enough injury-prone-but-talented hurlers? Miller is one of the more enigmatic pitchers of his time. He is supposed to be ready by May, and the Cubs will probably open a spot for him when he does. His talent makes him a possible late gamble. 50) Victor Zambrano | New York Mets
PROS: Zambrano has a career record over .500 (44-39), and last year he posted a respectable 4.17 ERA. After he arrived in a trade with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 2004, Zambrano went 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in three starts before a strained right hip flexor ended his season. CONS: Last year his WHIP was 1.48, which is right on par with his career number. Any man that allows baserunners with that sort of frequency should put up that sort of ERA – or worse. He had a knack for being involved in game-changing plays, mostly in the wrong direction. He's never been anything special. BOTTOM LINE: As the No. 5 on the Mets, he'll get his chances, especially with the health of SP Pedro Martinez's toe still a worry. That could enable to get 10 wins or more this year. 51) Dave Bush | Milwaukee Brewers
PROS: In two big league seasons he has a nice WHIP of 1.24, and in 2004 he teased his former team, the Toronto Blue Jays, by going 5-4 with a 3.69 ERA in 16 starts. CONS: Bush struggled early in 2005, going 0-5 and prompting a demotion. When he came back, he went 5-6 with a 4.23 ERA. Last season's totals: five up, 11 down and an ERA ballooned of 4.49. He's 28 and at this point doesn't seem to have a lot of upside. BOTTOM LINE: He'll be competing with journeyman SP Rick Helling and 22-year-old P Dana Eveland for the fifth starter's spot. Frankly, at this point, Helling has the edge, but Bush has been good in camp so far. 51) Byung-Hyun Kim | Colorado Rockies
PROS: Kim was in danger of losing his spot on yet another team, but he turned in a few decent performances at the 11th hour and went 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.48 WHIP after the All-Star break. He actually posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two different months, and they were consecutive. He was better at Coors Field (4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) than away from it (5.34 ERA, 1.58 WHIP). CONS: His ID still says Byung-Hyun Kim, and his team still plays 81 games at Coors Field. Opponents hit .275 against him last year, his worst BAA in any season. He's just doesn't have any upside. BOTTOM LINE: He's the Rockies' No. 4, which has never warranted fantasy consideration in the past. Calling his name will undoubtedly give owners the same case of whiplash that Kim suffered in the 2001 World Series, when he was the Arizona Diamondbacks' closer. 52) Brandon Claussen | Cincinnati Reds
PROS: Claussen survived his longest stint in the majors last year and finished with decent stats, including 10 wins and a 4.21 ERA in 166.2 innings. He only walked 57 batters last year. He has a career K/9 of roughly 6.4. CONS: The 28-year-old doesn't have particularly high ceiling. Last year his WHIP was 1.41, which lowered his career number to 1.50. He averaged 9.4 K/9 in the minors, but major league hitters are able to keep up with his stuff. That would explain his career .281 BAA. BOTTOM LINE: The southpaw is confident that he and the rest of the Reds pitchers can put a miserable 2005 (last in the NL in ERA at 5.15) behind them. Someone should tell him that it's been like that for a few years in Cincinnati, and he probably won't be the one to make the difference. 53) Aaron Heilman | New York Mets
PROS: The former Notre Dame star has a career minor league ERA of 3.68. He was dynamite last year for the Metropolitans, going 5-3 with five saves, a 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 106 Ks in 108 IP. He adapted to whichever role the team wanted him to fill. His 2005 K/9 stood at 8.8. CONS: On the road he was almost atrocious, with a 5.17 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .268 BAA. As a starter last year he was 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA in 42 innings. His work out of the pen gave him, at age 26, his first taste of success at that level. BOTTOM LINE: Some had him pegged as the team's future closer, but he wants to and will start. Now 27, Heilman must prove to the Mets brass that have no other immediate options that he can bring up the rear for a team that expects to contend. He's impressed early in camp, and he could be a nice late gem that ends up netting you 10 or so wins with a good number of strikeouts. 54) Jon Rauch | Washington Nationals
PROS: The then-Montreal Expos saw something they liked in Rauch and traded for him in 2004. He joined them and allowed just four runs and 14 hits while fanning 18 in 23.1 innings of limited action. Pitching mostly out of the pen, he came up with a 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 23 Ks in 30 innings during two separate call-ups last year. CONS: He has very little experience starting at the major league level, so it's uncertain whether his relief success will translate. He bounced around in the minors working as both a starter and a reliever, even though he has a 3.61 lifetime ERA in them. Last year his ERA on the road was 4.24. He missed 102 games in 2005 after undergoing shoulder surgery. BOTTOM LINE: Rauch is a 6-11 fireballer who's competing with four other hurlers for one of three spots in the rotation. (It was five, but he lucked out when SP Brian Lawrence suffered a torn labrum and rotator cuff.) He'd have to be incredibly impressive to be one that emerges, and there's likely a reason that he's never been a full-time starter. 55) Eric Milton | Cincinnati Reds
PROS: Milton, uh, shows up at the ballpark every day on time (so we hear). He can get you some strikeouts and he has a career WHIP of 1.33. CONS: Milton shows up on time. That's been good news for opposing hitters the past two years. Last year he had a 6.55 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .302 BAA, and over the past two seasons he's given up 83 jacks, by far the most during that span. He missed most of 2003 with a torn cartilage in his knee, and since then he's been mediocre at best. He's dealing with a strained calf muscle that has limited him this spring. BOTTOM LINE: Milton doesn't have much working in his favor. As he has further removed himself from the knee injury, he seems to have regressed. The last thing he needs is a nagging ailment. He's a better pitcher than last year's numbers would indicate, but is that reason enough to draft him? 56) John Thomson | Atlanta Braves
PROS: Atlanta acquired Thomson from the Texas Rangers after the 2003 season because they saw something in him and felt that escaping would bring it out of him. They were right, because Thomson went 14-8 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 133 Ks in 2004. CONS: Thomson missed a large portion of 2005 with a strained flexor tendon in his finger, the structure around which was partially torn as well. When he did pitch, he was 4-6 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He was bad on the road: 6.25 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and .314 BAA. BOTTOM LINE: It's hard to know how much the injury affected him last year, but Thomson was a pitcher capable of more. You'll need to monitor him and see signs of improvement this spring before you can feel comfortable drafting him. Tier 1257) Brett Tomko | Los Angeles Dodgers
PROS: Tomko has reached or approached 200 innings for four straight seasons. He comes to the Dodgers via the San Francisco Giants, and he spent 2002 with the San Diego Padres, so he's very familiar with the NL West. He doesn't hurt himself with walks too often. CONS: The police officers usually shoo fantasy drafters on by because, well, there's nothing to see here. The 32-year-old has lifetime ERA of 4.52, WHIP of 1.36 and K/9 of 5.9. He doesn't necessarily figure to do worse than that, but he doesn't figure to do much better. BOTTOM LINE: Historically Tomko has been a good starter at home (3.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), so he's a candidate for spot starts. He could win 10 games this year if the Dodgers are as improved as they think they are. 58) Jason Marquis | St. Louis Cardinals
PROS: The 27-year-old righty has put together two decent seasons for the Cardinals, going 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 2004 and 13-14 with a 4.13 ERA in 2005. He was a better road pitcher last year (7-7, 3.48 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). CONS: Marquis, a product of the Atlanta Braves farm system, has some talent but hasn't really put it all together. He's inconsistent from one month to the next, and it was never more apparent than during last year. His ERAs for each month, from April to September, read as follows: 3.27, 3.50, 6.00, 2.80, 6.69 and 1.97. BOTTOM LINE: Another pitcher who probably won't do a whole lot for you other than win you maybe a dozen or so games. No real upside, but he could solidify your rotation in NL-Only formats. 59) Anthony Reyes | St. Louis Cardinals
PROS: In a couple of trips to the bigs, including one start, Reyes wowed with his dominant stuff and confidence. He went 6.1 innings in his major league debut, allowing two runs, two hits and fanning five. He finished with that victory, a 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 12 Ks in 13.1 innings. CONS: Last year's numbers aren't much to go by. He's not a lock to make the rotation, and his inexperience will certainly mean that he'll take his lumps at times. BOTTOM LINE: Reyes is a grand competitor who will do everything he can to seize his opportunity. He should net a decent number of strikeouts and, even at the back of the Cardinals' rotation, be able to put up a few wins. 60) Brandon Backe | Houston Astros
PROS: Houston was hoping that Backe, 27, would build on a productive 2004 season when he appeared in 33 games, including nine starts, and posted a 4.30 ERA. He won 10 games for the first time in his career. He pitched brilliantly in his final two postseason starts last season, giving up just one run and seven hits combined to the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox. CONS: The cocky youngster has hurt himself in the past by putting too many men on base (career WHIP of 1.49). He missed about a month and a half last year with a ribcage injury. He'll be the team's No. 3 starter without SP Roger Clemens in the fold. BOTTOM LINE: Backe seems more determined heading into 2006. He's sure of himself, but he understands that he has to work to get better. His playoff experience may have helped him blossom, and he could be a nice sleeper pick, at least in NL-Only leagues. 62) Claudio Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks
PROS: Last season he made a run of 18 consecutive starts in which he pitched five innings or more. Manager Bob Melvin acknowledged that Vargas showed some signs of brilliance at times, going 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA in five July starts for the Diamondbacks. CONS: He made it through five innings or more in all those outings despite the fact that, in several of them, the opposition absolutely hammered him. The Washington Nationals designated him for assignment last year, and the Diamondbacks were lucky – or unlucky? - enough to claim him. He finished 9-6 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 21 games (19 starts) with Arizona. BOTTOM LINE: Right now he's competing for the No. 5 spot with left-handed SP Brad Halsey, and both pitchers have been solid early - the key word there being "early." There should be players available in your draft with more upside than Vargas, but if not, you can always go with Melvin's hunch. 61) Miguel Batista | Arizona Diamondbacks
62) Clay Hensley | San Diego Padres
63) Woody Williams | San Diego Padres
Tier 1364) Glendon Rusch | Chicago Cubs
65) Robinson Tejeda | Philadelphia Phillies
66) Dustin Nippert | Arizona Diamondbacks
67) Ryan Franklin | Philadelphia Phillies
68) Brad Halsey | Arizona Diamondbacks
69) Chin-hui Tsao | Colorado Rockies
70) Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
71) Josh Fogg | Colorado Rockies
Tier 1472) Seth Etherton | San Diego Padres
73) Shawn Estes | San Diego Padres
74) Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros
75) Brad Hennessey | San Francisco Giants
76) Paul Wilson | Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1577) Aaron Cook | Colorado Rockies
78) Randy Wolf | Philadelphia Phillies
79) Tony Armas Jr. | Washington Nationals
80) Jeff Francis | Colorado Rockies
81) Kyle Davies | Atlanta Braves
82) Ryan Vogelsong | Pittsburgh Pirates
83) Orlando Hernandez | Arizona Diamondbacks
84) Russ Ortiz | Arizona Diamondbacks
85) Brian Moehler | Florida Marlins
86) Scott Olsen | Florida Marlins
87) Adam Wainwright | St. Louis Cardinals
88) Zach Day | Colorado Rockies
89) Ezequiel Astacio | Houston Astros
90) Sun-Woo Kim | Colorado Rockies
Tier 1691) Ramon Ortiz | Washington Nationals
92) Mike Esposito | Colorado Rockies
93) Sidney Ponson | St. Louis Cardinals
94) Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres
95) Chan Ho Park | San Diego Padres
96) Aaron Sele | Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1797) Jamey Wright | San Francisco Giants
98) Josh Johnson | Florida Marlins
99) Jason Jennings | Colorado Rockies
Tier 18100) Ryan Drese | Washington Nationals
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Author Bio
Nicholas Minnix KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010. The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter. Featured LinksTalk Sports 24/7! |
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