Fantasy baseball players who are potential flops aren't guaranteed to fail.
However, don't ignore the danger associated with such names in your fantasy
baseball draft. Make sure that you know the facts and your fantasy baseball
team can afford to take on the risk.
Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
His power breakout was prognosticated back in 2007 with a doubles increase, but last year was ridiculous. Danger defines his HR/FB, which was absurdly above a middle infielder's progression.
Warning: Hill is a severe pull hitter. The heavy majority of his homers landed beyond left field. Pull hitters are typically more prone to slumps. His poor batting eye increases the risk of tough stretches, too.
Be careful. His ADP has been lowered due to skepticism, but playing the value game, you might be better off waiting for a second baseman. Purchasing a mirror of '09 stats puts you on the ledge.
Andrew Bailey, RP,
Be cautious with Aardsma
He's no Brad Ziegler; Bailey can throw gas and
record K's. Safe to say the A's closing
carousel has come to a halt with the righty. In command and performance, he
improved as the season went on. What's not to like?
Well, his stand rate and BABIP. Closers can have huge success in both (Bailey's
were 84.9 percent and .234, respectively), but it'd be better to see a foundation
established in the category. Plus, his spring elbow problems raise doubts about his durability, especially since he admitted the workload from his rookie season might be slowing his ability to get himself ready for the season. He boasts top-10 stopper ability, but consider who else is available before taking Bailey, he of little track record and his now worrisome throwing arm.
Brian Fuentes, RP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Yes, he's the closer heading into the season. Fuentes sure didn't look like one at the end of last year. The Halos employed other relievers to give Fuentes a head-start in the ninth. The lefty's stuff became more hittable, too.
His value is saves-driven; he hurts you way too often in ratios. Fernando Rodney enters as another closer-capable arm, and they already have skills-favoring Kevin Jepsen and Jason Bulger on roster. Fuentes, who has lost a closer job before in the past, is hard to bet on when there are so many other options with a more secure job base.
David Aardsma, RP, Seattle
Aardsma showed flashes in the past and finally displayed some of his heat in producing closures. Luck was on his side in form of flyball, homer and strand rates. It was the perfect storm for him, and it started to clear near the end of the season when he became fatigued.
The M's acquired Brandon League, a big arm
that finally figured things out last year. At the right value - optimally as a No. 3 stopper - Aardsma could serve well with less for you to lose, but you have to consider other more seasoned options taken around him. If that pool runs out, you can take Aardsma, but you should do it cautiously while locating backup plans.
Neftali Feliz, RP, Texas Rangers
Talented, sure. The mid-90s (sometimes triple-digit) heat is hard to pass up. Hold off: Texas says he'll start the season in the 'pen. That'll make him a valuable LIMA reliever, yes, but at what cost?
He's being drafted among some talented but devalued starters guaranteed of rotation spots. Without saves chances or a rotation gig, it's hard to spend a top-200 pick on him; his three-category contributions can only go so far with an infrequent workload.
About Tim Heaney
Tim's work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly, among numerous outlets, and recognized as a finalist in the Fantasy Sports Writers Association awards. The Boston University alum, who competes in LABR and Tout Wars, has won numerous industry leagues in both baseball and football.
During baseball and football season, he appears on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Thursdays and Sundays, and every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore.
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