Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat

Closer Hot Seat

July 25, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Welcome to KFFL's Closer Hot Seat. We forecast every sketchy closer situation in the majors each week, and we'll let you know who is next in line for the job in the very volatile closer situations across baseball. Sit back, relax and put your feet up as we fire up this week's Closer Hot Seat.

KEY

Durability grade: 1 (very injury-prone) to 10 (extremely durable)

Job security grade: 1 (very shaky) to 10 (firm grasp)

HOT SEAT STATUS: INJURY QUESTIONS

Baltimore Orioles

Closer: Chris Ray

Next in line: Jamie Walker

Other possibilities: Danys Baez

Analysis: The Orioles benched Ray (elbow) at the beginning of the month for what they termed "rest"; he seemed to respond with three saves and a win without a run allowed this month. Unfortunately, the second-year right-hander has been unavailable for the past two games. An MRI taken Monday revealed a bone spur and inflammation in his right elbow. Orioles manager Dave Trembley said that Ray has been on medication to reduce the inflammation. Ray is scheduled to throw a side session Wednesday, and Baltimore is expected to make a decision regarding Ray's status afterward. The Orioles may place him on the disabled list if there is any indication that Ray isn't fit to pitch - they don't want to take a chance with their 25-year-old closer. Meanwhile, Walker has received (and converted) the club's last two save chances with little trouble. If you own Ray, acquire Walker immediately. If you don't own Ray but can afford to dump someone, it's a pretty smart move to get Walker, too.

Durability grade: 8

Job security grade: 9

Chicago Cubs

Closer: Ryan Dempster

Next in line: Bobby Howry

Other possibilities: Carlos Marmol

Analysis: The Cubs activated Dempster (oblique) from the disabled list at the end of last week, and he returned to the closer's role immediately. He subsequently picked up his first save Tuesday. He has allowed three hits and an unearned run in two innings, and he has also fanned one. Fantasy owners should already have him back in their lineups, and if they don't, they should put him there immediately. Howry was serviceable in Dempster's absence, and the club still hasn't ruled out Marmol as a long-term option. However, Dempster has recorded 17 saves in 19 opportunities. With the way that the club has made a surge to get back into the NL Central race, they should see no reason to mess with things.

Durability grade: 7

Job security grade: 9

Houston Astros

Closer: Brad Lidge

Next in line: Dan Wheeler

Other possibilities: Chad Qualls

Analysis: The Astros didn't take long to restore Lidge (oblique, knee) as closer, even though manager Phil Garner had stated that he wanted to ease him back into that role. Garner's faith has paid off, because in the past week Lidge has notched four straight saves. Lidge struck out the side Sunday for the third of those four lockdowns. Since his return from the disabled list, Lidge has pitched six innings, allowing three hits, three walks and zero runs. He has also struck out an average of two batters per appearance, and that gives him 12 strikeouts since his return. Fantasy owners would be insane to leave him on the bench. With the trade deadline looming, there is mild concern that he could go somewhere to be a setup man, but the more logical choice for a contender would be to install him as closer. Wheeler and Qualls are not good speculation pickups at this time, based on their atrocious performances.

Durability grade: 7

Job security grade: 8 (Last week: 6)

Oakland Athletics

Closer: Alan Embree

Next in line: Huston Street

Other possibilities: Santiago Casilla

Analysis: The A's activated Street (elbow) from the disabled list Tuesday, but they don't plan to let him close games quite yet. Embree remains the top dog, but that obviously shouldn't last, barring more bad news for Street. Fantasy owners of Street have the luxury of sitting him to see how he responds to major league competition, although they'd probably feel more confident with a legit closer on their hands. In his first appearance since May, he gave up two hits and a run in an inning of work. If you own Embree and Street, it's a bonus, and Embree owners should continue to throw him out there. He picked up a save Tuesday, as a matter of fact, to prove that Oakland is in little rush to get Street back on the hill in the ninth frame. Embree also notched a save Saturday in a scoreless inning. He has no trade value, except perhaps to Street owners, so don't bother, but you might as well ride him out.

Durability grade: 9

Job security grade: 1 (Last week: 2)

Philadelphia Phillies

Closer: Antonio Alfonseca (Brett Myers is on the disabled list)

Next in line: Tom Gordon

Other possibilities: Ryan Madson

Analysis: The Phillies have been reluctant to use Gordon as the closer now that he's back from the disabled list. They want to see how he responds - either that, or they don't trust his inconsistency or ability to stay healthy. It was evidenced by the fact that Alfonseca came in to close out the Phils' 7-3 win against the San Diego Padres Friday. (Alf came in for the eighth frame with the bases loaded and recorded the final out before hitting for himself, then pitching a scoreless ninth.) He then recorded another save against the Washington Nationals Tuesday. Myers (shoulder) could return as early as Friday after pitching a scoreless inning in his first rehab outing Monday. Sounds like Gordon will be a setup man for the foreseeable future, unless Philadelphia decides to place Myers back in the rotation - which seems unlikely.

Durability grade: 4

Job security grade: 1

Colorado Rockies

Closer: Manny Corpas (Brian Fuentes is on the disabled list)

Next in line: Jeremy Affeldt

Other possibilities: Jorge Julio

Analysis: Corpas is making it tough for the Rockies to assume that they can just reinsert Fuentes as the closer when the lefty returns from the disabled list. Manager Clint Hurdle said that Fuentes wasn't close to a comeback - at last not close enough to pitch in the early portion of this week. It doesn't sound like he's all that anxious to get Fuentes back. Can you blame him? The nasty Corpas has saved five games in the past two-and-a-half weeks, including three straight in his most recent appearances. He gave up a run on a solo dinger July 18, but otherwise he has nary a blemish on his record. This month Corpas sports a 1.00 ERA and 0.44 WHIP to go along with 13 strikeouts in nine innings. Corpas' strikeout rate has increased since becoming the closer, which proves that he can answer the bell. Can the Rockies, who may still consider themselves dark horses in the NL Wild Card race, bring themselves to give the job back to Fuentes? If you own Fuentes, you might want to trade for Corpas while you can. If you own Corpas, hold on tight.

Durability grade: 8

Job security grade: 4 (Last week: 3)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Closer: Al Reyes

Next in line: Gary Glover

Other possibilities: Shawn Camp

Analysis: In what has become the theme of this week's Closer Hot Seat, Reyes (shoulder) is yet another closer back from the disabled list, as of last week. There was no question that he would return as the closer, but how long he remains in that role (at least with Tampa) is an entirely different matter. The Rays have no incentive to keep him because he has a one-year deal, and the club isn't going anywhere. It's not clear what his role would be with a contender, either, so keeping is a risk: It could pay dividends, but if he's a setup man, it won't. Glover wasn't terrible in Reyes' stead, but he wasn't glamorous, either. The 30-year-old right-hander has given up five runs (four earned), nine hits and four walks this month. He also earned two saves without blowing one in July. He might be the first choice if Tampa Bay ships out Reyes. The Rays have incentive to try others in the role, though.

Durability grade: 5

Job security grade: 10

HOT SEAT STATUS: LACKLUSTER PRODUCTION

Atlanta Braves

Closer: Bob Wickman

Next in line: Rafael Soriano

Other possibilities: Tyler Yates

Analysis: Wickman had been solid for the past week and a half or so. In his last five of his last six outings, the burly righty had given up just one hit, one walk and zero runs while fanning four in five innings of work. He notched a save and a win during that stretch, too. Since blowing a save on the first of the month, he had recorded three without incident. Unfortunately, he has two major scars this month: a one-inning effort against the San Diego Padres in which he gave up five hits and three runs in an inning of mop-up duty, along with a blown save Tuesday in which he gave up a run on two hits in one-third of a frame. The issue seems to be when Wickman travels: At home, he has not allowed a run in 16 2/3 innings; on the road, his ERA is 8.20. The Braves may not have a choice right now, though. Soriano has been atrocious lately. From July 14 on, he has allowed six earned runs, nine hits (including three taters) and two walks in 5 1/3 innings pitched. Manager Bobby Cox isn't likely to give up on the veteran Wickman any time soon, especially when the alternative is tossing the rawhide so poorly. It's hard to recommend platooning a closer because of the chance for saves, but he is becoming that sort of fantasy player. There's a chance the Braves could deal for relief help.

Durability grade: 6

Job security grade: 4 (Last week: 3)

Chicago White Sox

Closer: Bobby Jenks

Next in line: Matt Thornton

Other possibilities: Ryan Bukvich

Analysis: Some days Jenks likes to save games, some days he doesn't. It shows. Jenks blew a save chance July 14 (he allowed two runs, then nailed one down July 16, then blew another July 17 (again two crossed the plate) and then came back last Thursday to pitch a perfect inning en route to his 26th save. Jenks tried to put his troubles behind him by saving both ends of the ChiSox's doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers Tuesday. He pitched a perfect ninth in each contest, and that brought his season total to 28 saves. In 2007 he has blown five saves, which is one more than he blew all of last season. That 3.61 ERA isn't outstanding for a reliever, but after an atrocious start to July, he may be on the road to recovery. Besides, the White Sox have no other viable options. It wouldn't be a total shock for Chicago to land a player with the untapped ability to close games by the trade deadline, but fantasy owners have nothing to be concerned about - other than Jenks' occasional blemishes on their ratios - for the foreseeable future.

Durability grade: 9

Job security grade: 7

Detroit Tigers

Closer: Todd Jones

Next in line: Jason Grilli

Other possibilities: Jose Capellan

Analysis: Jones took a lot of heat for an awful June, but he always seems to respond to criticism. He has one major blemish on an otherwise stellar July in which he has a 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and eight saves. With no other options on the 25-man roster, Detroit is sticking with Jones. Capellan, a trade acquisition nearly a month ago, is thought to have the stuff to do the job, but he has to solidify a 25-man roster spot before he could even sniff a save chance. Manager Jim Leyland should stick with his veteran for the foreseeable future. Just remember that Detroit is expected to be active as the trade deadline approaches, and they're in the market for a "setup man." If someone like Houston Astros closer Brad Lidge is the "setup man" they acquire, you better believe that Jones' seat will get a lot hotter.

Durability grade: 10

Job security grade: 8 (Last week: 7)

Florida Marlins

Closer: Kevin Gregg

Next in line: Armando Benitez

Others: Matt Lindstrom

Analysis: Gregg hasn't yet had the meltdown that some envisioned, but he may not be the closer for much longer. It has less to do with his performance for the Marlins than it does with his possible performance for another team. He could prove to be a valuable setup man for a contender, and the Marlins are likely to be sellers as the deadline approaches. Gregg has recorded five saves this month while posting a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. While not outstanding, those ratios are acceptable. The occasional blowup is something fantasy owners may have to live with, but using Gregg as trade bait right now is definitely an option. For some reason people (like the Marlins, for now) think that Benitez can still close games on a consistent basis, but why put up with him? Lindstrom and Owens (shoulder) appear to be the club's best long-term options, although not necessarily this season. Owens, by the way, recently resumed throwing.

Durability grade: 6

Job security grade: 7 (Last week: 6)

San Francisco Giants

Closer: Brad Hennessey

Next in line: Jonathan Sanchez

Others: Randy Messenger

Analysis: July has been an unusual month for Hennessey. He has already had a whopping two save chances, and he hasn't blown either of them! He hasn't given up a run in 4 2/3 innings of work after the All-Star break, another exciting development. Finally, he's still the Giants' closer. Realistically, though, Hennessey is not a long-term solution for San Francisco. With a 41-57 record, this club is playing for the future, and eventually they may move in a different direction. Some at KFFL are fans of Sanchez (ribcage), who returned from the disabled list last Thursday. He had pitched three scoreless innings with three strikeouts since his activation before a blowup Tuesday in which he allowed three runs on three hits and a walk in two-thirds of a frame. He has some nasty stuff, though, and his 37 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings are an indication of that. Whether or not the Giants give him a chance, though, is another story. Hennessey remains a fantasy commodity of the unfortunate variety: He isn't likely to get many save opportunities, doesn't have a high strikeout rate and doesn't have outstanding ratios. However, he does have a fantasy-relevant job, so live with it.

Durability grade: 8

Job security grade: 3