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Fantasy football on target - Week 6

October 7, 2008 @ 09:13:22

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Opportunity in the NFL world can translate into success in the fantasy football world. This is where targets come into play. While a wide receiver may have caught only four passes in a given week, his target total might have been double or triple that. Those targets may not have translated into catches during one week, but they may in the future.

The following players gained attention because of the number of targets they received in the past four weeks. Are some of these numbers a trend in the making or simply an aberration?

Fantasy Football on Target

What immediately stands out about the Week 5 target data is that Detroit Lions wideout Roy Williams received 19 looks. That's five more than the runner-up for the week, the Minnesota Vikings' Bernard Berrian. After Williams spent the first three weeks as second fiddle to second-year sensation Calvin Johnson, has he suddenly been restored to No. 1 status? Williams recorded a season-high seven receptions for 96 yards.

Word was the Lions planned to come out throwing more in Week 5. They are wary of how easily they've been falling behind, despite their offseason transition to a run-oriented offense, which should emphasize possession. The results were the same, though.

Fantasy owners expecting a huge year from Johnson should take note: He was targeted a mere six times in Week 5. No one doubts the former Georgia Tech standout's talent; it's the offense and talent (or lack thereof) around him that's the problem. Incidentally, Detroit's desire to air it out a bit resulted in a whopping six combined targets for the team's other wideouts.

Speaking of Berrian, he has been coming on strong. Toe problems hampered him early on, and then he sustained a minor knee injury in practice this past week. Berrian hooked up with quarterback Gus Frerotte six times for 110 yards and a score against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. It's scary to think about what this 27-year-old could do at 100 percent and with a Pro Bowl-caliber passer.

Cincinnati Bengals receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh received another 13 targets in Week 5; he's clearly the No. 1 option, but his inconsistency has already become maddening. His targets for each of the past four weeks read like this: five, 15, seven, 13. Remember, though: His seven-target performance in Week 4 came with backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing injured starter Carson Palmer (elbow). Still, you drafted Housh as a No. 1, and you obviously don't bench him. His partner in crime, Chad Johnson (six, seven, seven, six), on the other hand, is not playable unless you are in a bye week quandary. Yes, the situation is that bad in the Queen City.

The Atlanta Falcons' Roddy White (11.25 per game, fourth) and the Baltimore Ravens' Derrick Mason (9.33 per game, tied for 13th) were two of the most targeted receivers in past four weeks. Each catches passes from a 2008 first-round quarterback in an offense that's supposed to be focused on the run. Each of those signal callers ranks outside the top 20 in pass attempts per game in that timeframe. In point-per-reception formats, especially, I'd strongly consider dangling these wideouts before defenses start taking away their baby passer's favorite toy.

Other interesting observations about wideouts:

In Week 5, the Denver Broncos' Brandon Marshall didn't hit double-digit targets for the first time this season. Oh no! Cut him - but only if I have first waiver priority in your league.
The Washington Redskins' Santana Moss was the target of one - ONE! - pass against the Philadelphia Eagles. The 'Skins still won, though. Is this offense that good? It might be, it might be.... Oh, and inconsistency has always been the name of Moss' game.
In Week 5, Arizona Cardinals rookie Early Doucet was active for the first time in his career and was the target of seven passes; he caught six of them, for 42 yards. This offense airs it out, and as long as receiver Anquan Boldin (head) is sidelined, no desert stone should go unturned. Who knows how long Q will be out....
The Miami Dolphins' Greg Camarillo deserves a much harder look, especially in PPR leagues. He leads this team in targets with seven per game in the past four weeks.
Antonio Bryant may be turning his career around. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have targeted him 12.67 times per game in the past three games, tied for the league lead in that timeframe. There's no reason he should be available in any format.
We've been hearing about the Jacksonville Jaguars' Mike Walker (knee), who had nine targets in Week 5, for the past couple of seasons. If he can stay healthy, he's a dynamite talent. With six looks last week, he leads the team in that category in the past two games. Too bad he has to share with a bunch of other underachieving receivers in J-ville. He's currently up in the air for Week 6, but keep tabs and grab him if he's healthy. Stash him if you have the room.
The Vikes' Sidney Rice (knee) was a nice little sleeper entering the year, but Bobby Wade appears to be developing quite a rapport with Frerotte. Wade received another 11 looks in Week 5, giving him eight per game in the three weeks Frerotte has been under center. He has amassed 18 receptions for 174 yards in that time.
In the absence of top man Brandon Lloyd (boy, that sounds weird), the Chicago Bears' Rashied Davis was targeted nine times. We had been hearing that he was perhaps the most impressive receiver in Bears camp. That didn't mean much in the offseason, but now that quarterback Kyle Orton has attempted 33.5 passes per game in the past four weeks....
Former favorite sleeper Brandon Jones, of the Tennessee Titans, saw eight looks, twice as many as he had seen in any other week, in Week 5. Justin Gage (knee) once again sat this one out.
We had been told to look for the Baltimore Ravens to look Demetrius Williams' way a good bit, but Mark Clayton was the man who tied Mason for the team lead in targets in Week 5. Fantasy owners should watch this situation, but until someone emerges or Mason gets shut down, stay away.
The Green Bay Packers' Donald Driver finally had a game fantasy owners could be proud of. Much like Ocho Cinco, though, Driver is becoming tough to rely on if he's only getting 6.25 targets per game, like he has in the past four games.

Why can't people just leave TO alone? The Dallas Cowboys' Terrell Owens picks the one week in which he received 20 utilizations (including 18 targets) to whine about his involvement in the offense. In the other three weeks of the past four, he has been targeted an average of 5.33 times. This is your premier weapon on offense (sorry, Marion Barber III), and that's how often you try to get him the rock? In Week 2, Dallas receivers fetched a total of 11 looks; in Week 3, 13. Patrick Crayton (three) was the only other Dallas wideout targeted in Week 5.

Meanwhile, Cowboys tight end Jason Witten has received a very steady 9.75 targets per game. Quarterback Tony Romo has a favorite - off the field, it's Jessica Simpson, and on it, it's Mr. Witten. I think we should expect to see a few more episodes of this TO soap opera, and sweeps are just around the corner.

Yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers' Heath Miller finally scored this past week. That's pretty much all he's good for. In his last four tilts, he has been the target on 3.75 passes per game. That puts him in the company of the Chicago Bears' Greg Olsen, the Cincinnati Bengals' Reggie Kelly, the Minnesota Vikings' Visanthe Shiancoe and the Green Bay Packers' Donald Lee - some low-end fantasy company.

The Steelers were without their top two running backs, which might explain why Miller was a target twice in the red zone and once inside the 5 this past week. Before that? No looks in the red zone. If "Fast" Willie Parker (knee) is ready to go after the bye week, are fantasy owners prepared to rely on an infrequent touchdown from Miller for the rest of the season?

Former Pro Bowler Todd Heap, of the Baltimore Ravens, appears to be just a shadow of his former self, but it's more so that his role just won't allow him to contribute. He stays in to block so often. He has averaged 3.33 targets per game in the past four weeks, which simply isn't going to cut it for fantasy football owners. He doesn't deserve a fantasy roster spot, except in extremely deep leagues. Perhaps if defenses can eliminate Mason....

Other tight end trends of note:

The Seattle Seahawks' John Carlson was targeted zero times in Week 5 - the same week in which Engram and fellow receiver Deion Branch (heel) returned to action. Coincidence? No. Carlson could get a few looks in Week 6, though. It sounds like Branch isn't going to play in this one.
In the two games that the New Orleans Saints' Jeremy Shockey (sports hernia) has missed, Billy Miller has been targeted 5.5 times per contest. Oh, yes, you could do worse than Miller, who's in a pass-happy offense.

For a complete list of sortable fantasy football player targets and utilized plays, be sure to check out KFFL's Fantasy Football Utilization Charts!