Fantasy Football on Target - Week 6

October 13, 2009 @ 13:24:37

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

Opportunity in the NFL world can translate into success in the fantasy football world. This is where targets come into play. While a wide receiver may have caught only four passes in a given week, his target total might have been double or triple that. Those targets may not have translated into catches one week, but they may in the future.

The following players gained attention because of the number of targets they received this past week. Are these numbers a trend in the making or simply an aberration?

Fantasy Football on Target

It doesn't take an oracle to know who this week's hot pickup will be: the Dallas Cowboys' Miles Austin. Catching 10 passes for 250 yards and two scores will do that. That stat line came on 15 targets, tied for the league lead last week. Head coach Wade Phillips plans to have Austin on the field 50-plus times, but at whose expense? After their bye this week, they could have Felix Jones (knee) and Roy Williams (ribs) back - both garner significant looks. Patrick Crayton, the starter opposite Williams, has received 7.2 targets per game. Even if Austin inherits many of Crayton's looks, there are still too many other targets (tight ends Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett, for example) to make him a consistent week-to-week play. Not saying don't pick Austin up, but don't expect consistency.

Look who graced us with his presence

A pair of disappointing wideouts finally showed up last week - Eddie Royal (Denver Broncos) and Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons). The former was looked at 15 times, while the latter hit double digits. They were both fairly efficient with their looks, too. Royal finished with 10-90-0, while White had 8-210-2 - that's no typo. Looking forward, it might not be the same story, though. Royal's targets have been inconsistent in head coach Josh McDaniels' offense. They like to change their game plan to match their opponent and won't force it to one guy. Thus, Royal's targets look like a sine curve. White, though, has hit 10 targets in three of four games and should be a big part of Atlanta's offense on a weekly basis.

The New York Jets' Braylon Edwards might not have had much time to learn the playbook, but it didn't stop quarterback Mark Sanchez from looking his way 11 times. His final stats (5-64-1) would have looked even better if he had hauled in a deep pass late in the game. Has a new (winning) team changed his mentality, too? The very early returns would suggest so.

Buffalo Bills wideout Lee Evans continues to receive five or six targets per game. This offensive line just can't give quarterback Trent Edwards enough protection to the get the ball deep to Evans. He doesn't catch a lot of TDs or passes, either; sure, he might break out one of these weeks, though it'll likely come on your bench. If you're sticking with him, you're a more loyal owner than I am.

If you took our advice and played the Indianapolis Colts' Austin Collie last week, well, glad we could be of service. His targets have increased in each of the last three weeks. Quarterback Peyton Manning looked Collie's way nine times last week. Though Collie has seemingly grasped this offense quickly, the first-year wideout is more so proof for the argument that the quarterback makes the receiver and not the other way around. After the bye, though, Anthony Gonzalez (knee) could be ready to return in Week 7 - just a heads-up. We'll see how much Collie factors in when the corps becomes more crowded.

Bryant Johnson? Dennis Northcutt? Does it matter if it's the Detroit Lions? Sure it does if you are struggling to replace players on bye. BJ, a starter, has more value here; Northcutt received his eight looks largely because Calvin Johnson (knee) was out. Detroit is saying they don't consider C. Johnson's knee injury to be significant, but stay tuned for updates on his status for Week 6.

Mr. Efficiency in Week 5? The Miami Dolphins' Ted Ginn Jr. He made the most of his looks (two) with a 2-57-1 line. Still, Miami's offense hasn't made a point of going the '07 first-round pick's way. It does help with Chad Henne behind center; he has a stronger arm and can hit Ginn deep, something both Chad Pennington (shoulder) and Pat White haven't been able to do. Does Ginn have anything with Henne? He did in the past. Are you looking for a flier? Ginn might just be available if you have the room; he's on a bye this week.

The Philadelphia Eagles welcomed back Donovan McNabb (rib) from his injury hiatus; DeSean Jackson probably wasn't so welcoming. After 22 targets in the previous two games, Jackson received just four last week; he now has just two receptions for seven yards with McNabb behind center.

Welcome back, Donovan?

The Eagles receiver on everyone's mind is probably Jeremy Maclin. The dangerous wideout made the most of his eight looks with six receptions for 142 yards and two scores. We mentioned Maclin in last week's Fantasy Football Insider; it doesn't look like he'll be losing the No. 2 spot anytime soon, even if they're reluctant to name him the starter. Keep your expectations tempered, though; there are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and defenses likely won't always shade coverage to Jackson.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Michael Clayton and Antonio Bryant dropped at least five passes between them last week. Consider them on notice. The two combined for 23 targets in Week 5; opportunities could arise, especially as the Bucs are often playing from behind. Does that mean more work for Maurice Stovall and/or Sammie Stroughter? It could ... but the Bucs have also been working out wideouts to see if one will catch on (pun intended).

Is Brett Favre really the ageless one? The Carolina Panthers' Muhsin Muhammad, 36, has 35 targets this year and had 10 last week. For point-per-reception owners, he is a sneaky acquisition and one often overlooked in fantasy leagues.

Mike Thomas for Mike Sims-Walker? Did it matter for the Jacksonville Jaguars? Apparently not. Torry Holt was looked at 11 times and Thomas just twice; quarterback David Garrard stuck to his more familiar pass catchers in Week 5. It appears Sims-Walker's off-field incident won't bring further discipline besides his fantasy-crushing inactive declaration. Hope you managed to get Sims-Walker out of your lineup in time, too. If not, well, make sure you are tuned to our Hot off the Wire service prior to the games Sunday.

One of Garrard's familiar targets was Marcedes Lewis, who sits in the top eight among tight ends in targets over the last two weeks. Maybe the Jacksonville Jaguars have more trust in him after he spent his offseason working out in Jacksonville. His numbers didn't show it last week, but as we've said before, finding a replacement for bye weeks can be a chore in deeper leagues. If you want to take a chance on the 2006 first-round pick, now might be the time to do so with the St. Louis Rams on tap.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Josh Johnson looked more comfortable behind center last weekend. He also looked like he had a rapport with tight end Kellen Winslow (13 targets). The former top-10 draft pick is arguably the most talented offensive player on the Bucs and appears to be maturing; if the two have established a rapport....

Brandon Pettigrew, of the Detroit Lions, and Daniel Fells, of the Rams, finished with six targets each last week. Both appear to be benefiting from the backup quarterbacks being in there. Both ranked in the top 10 in red zone utilizations among tight ends in the last four weeks. If Matthew Stafford (knee) and Marc Bulger (shoulder) return this week for the Lions and Rams, respectively, both TEs lose some of their usefulness, at least for the short term. Of the two, Pettigrew has more long-term potential regardless of QB.

Finally, one name you won't see on the Week 5 targets list: Chris Cooley of the Washington Redskins. After tackle Chris Samuels (spine) left because of injury, Cooley was forced to stay in and block more. Samuels isn't expected back this week, meaning we may see Cooley stay in some this coming week, as well.

Remember: Opportunity can lead to success. Find out which of these players we recommend adding in this week's Fantasy Football Waiver Wire.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Gary Stuckey, at 07:40 on 10/13/09, says: Love your insight. Sadly, I missed your last minute update for Sims-Walker...#$%#! Please keep up the Great Work!

Report!

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2

Adam V, at 11:07 on 10/15/09, says: I've looked at many sites for up-to-date info and you guys are pretty much on the money with news and projections! Great Work!

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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