Fantasy baseball strategy: Reacting to Opening Day

April 6, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Opening Day can invoke a lot of anxiety from fantasy baseball owners, especially the novices and more casual players.

You may have doubts about the players on your roster, whether your draft ended two months ago or two days ago. Look at all those attractive options on the waiver wire. One of them has to be better than what you're about to throw out there every week, every fifth day, right?

Unlikely. Opening Day is just another on the baseball schedule. Pick any date from last season. You'll find extraordinary (or at least better than average) performances from no-namers. You'll also discover sub-par (to flat-out despicable) outings from some of the game's best. How do you react to the unofficial holiday's transgressions?

Pick up Emilio Bonifacio

Bonifacio, 23 (soon to be 24), was a mild prospect for the Arizona Diamondbacks before he bounced to the Washington Nationals and now the Florida Marlins. He oozes speed and made a big impression on Fish manager Fredi Gonzalez this spring.

Don't expect more 4-for-5 performances (homer, four RBIs, three steals), but don't ignore such big days from players with the skills to have a moderate impact. Many players have fantasy relevance immediately, even though they weren't popular fantasy picks.

Identify the ones with a decent pedigree and opportunity or who have done it before. The Texas Rangers' Kevin Millwood just might qualify here, too, although some remain on the fence with him....

Don't throw these players into your lineup yet, either. Let's see them become regular contributors before they supplant your starters.

If you make a reactionary move like this, make sure you have players to drop. End-game picks with little upside - you know, the washed up vet you took because the three drafters before you all took your top sleepers - qualify. High-upside players you expected to stash for a while probably don't.

Don't drop Jason Motte

You can't be encouraged by the talented St. Louis Cardinals right-hander's act in his first save situation (four hits, four runs, one K in one inning). Nevertheless, don't overreact by cutting a player with so much upside loose.

The list of players, experienced or not, who have been torched on Opening Day and bounced back in their next outing is nearly infinite. The Cards expected this situation to be served by committee. Look for a Ryan Franklin sighting in St. Louis' upcoming save chance.

Motte will receive another one, though - probably very soon. Even big leaguers have jitters. This was a new role for Motte, with pressure he had never experienced before. It's good to get it out of the way. How he responds will do a lot to tell you whether he's up to the task long term or not, though.

In the meantime, it's not a bad idea to stash Franklin (and even Chris Perez, if you have room).

KFFLians are saying....

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Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

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