Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat
By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini and Tim Heaney
In fantasy baseball, the closer position remains volatile. Rarely does every closer hang on to the job for the entire season - injury, poor performance or managerial decisions can cloud a team's bullpen picture.
Should you be concerned about a struggling stopper? Which setup men are climbing the depth chart? Any lingering injuries popping up? KFFL.com's Closer Hot Seat keeps you informed.
Key
Durability grade: 1 (very injury-prone) to 10 (extremely durable)
Job security grade: 1 (very shaky) to 10 (firm grasp)
Closer: N/A
Next in line: Jim Johnson, Chris Ray, George Sherrill
Other possibilities: Danys Baez
In all fairness to Sherrill, he hasn't been horrible. He has blown only two of his six save chances; some managers such as the Milwaukee Brewers' Ken Macha, who has seen eight blown saves, would be more than happy with that.
Still, manager Dave Trembley pulled the plug on Sherrill as the sole closer in favor an approach that fantasy owners dread: the closer by committee. Sherrill still could receive some looks in the ninth, but both Johnson and Ray will receive opportunities to lock down games.
A big reason for the move: Sherrill is allowing a .389 average to right-handed batters. On the other hand (pardon the pun), lefties are hitting just .143 against him. Keep in mind: He was a shutdown lefty specialist for the Seattle Mariners in 2006 and 2007.
Although it wasn't a save situation, Trembley went to Sherrill in the ninth Monday, May 4, when the team had a four-run lead. Though Sherrill doesn't enjoy pitching with a four-run lead, he managed to lock down the game after allowing a pair of baserunners. It showed confidence that Trembley hasn't lost complete faith in Sherrill.
Trembley used Johnson in the eighth during the Monday game. That leaves just Ray, the hurler we feel has the most long-term value in this bullpen mess. Ray closed games for Baltimore in 2006 and for part of 2007 before Tommy John surgery derailed him. He hasn't looked particularly sharp this year (7.56 ERA and 2.16 WHIP), but he has demonstrated the stuff and the mettle to close in the past.
As for Baez, who has been the best pitcher in the bullpen so far, Trembley said he doesn't want to risk messing with a good thing and will keep him in his current setup role. We'll have to take his word on that ... for now.
Durability grade: N/A
Job security grade: N/A
Closer: Kevin Gregg
Next in line: Carlos Marmol
Other possibilities: Aaron Heilman
One week ago, Gregg had just one save (April 10). Since the calendar flipped to May, though, he has a save in each of his three appearances. His appearances haven't been the smoothest, with at least one baserunner allowed in each of his last three, but he doesn't appear in any danger of losing his job.
Why, you ask? Well, manager Lou Piniella has stayed loyal to his guy in the past. It's not like he has any better options, either. Marmol (knee) returned from his knee problems Wednesday, April 29, and promptly allowed four runs while walking four in just one-third of an inning. He has looked better since then, but don't expect a change in this situation given the way Gregg has been locking down games. Marmol has the better stuff compared to Gregg, but he falls short of Gregg when it comes to mental aspect of being a closer.
Durability grade: 8
Job security grade: 8 (last week: 7)
Closer: Huston Street
Next in line: Jason Grilli, Alan Embree
Other possibilities: Manny Corpas
Disabled list: Taylor Buchholz
Another scoreless appearance Monday, May 4, made it five straight for Street. The last two came in save situations, and one saw him strike out the side. The closer mantle is clearly on his shoulders now.
Street's surge has been surpassed only by Corpas' decline. Manager Clint Hurdle opted to use Corpas in a 0-0 ballgame that had just entered extra innings while saving Street for a save situation. The righty rewarded his manager's confidence by allowing a walk, sacrifice bunt and single to give the San Francisco Giants a 1-0 victory (note the sarcasm).
What has been the problem with Corpas this year? He's struggled to get anything from his usually nasty slider, and he has had problems keeping his fastball down in the zone consistently. He's rushing his delivery, which in turn has led to a change in his arm slot. Hurdle has even talked recently of demoting Corpas, though they don't yet have a righty healthy enough to replace him.
Still, it's disappointing for Corpas owners, who should be considering dropping him or at least reserving him in deep mixed leagues.
Durability grade: 7
Job security grade: 7
Closer: Fernando Rodney
Next in line: Joel Zumaya
Other possibilities: Brandon Lyon, Ryan Perry
Zumaya might be making most of the noise with his comments regarding the New York Yankees, but it has been Rodney that has locked the door on any competition for saves. He has yet to blow any of his six save chances and looks to have righted the ship after hitting a rough patch last week.
To be fair to Zumaya, he is making plenty of noise with his pitching. He has allowed just four baserunners in five innings since returning Saturday, April 25. He has even unleashed a changeup, making his triple-digit fastball even more dangerous.
Lyon, meanwhile, has hit a few road bumps. He has allowed three earned runs in his last three appearances (2 2/3 innings), though he hasn't appeared in any significant pressure situations.
Durability grade: 7
Job security grade: 8 (last week: 6)
Closer: LaTroy Hawkins
Next in line: Chris Sampson
Disabled list: Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail
The 'Stros didn't wait long to send to Valverde (calf) to the disabled list, placing on him on the DL last week. His prognosis: three to five weeks. Valverde had fluid drained from his right calf Friday, May 1, making his return date sometime in June.
Thus, owners who pounced on Hawkins should be able to garner several more saves from the veteran closer. He gave up just two earned runs (both in the same appearance) in a span of 10 1/3 innings heading into action Tuesday, May 5.
Durability grade: 8
Job security grade: 8 (without Valverde)
Closer: Joakim Soria
Next in line: Juan Cruz
Other possibilities: Jamey Wright, Kyle Farnsworth
It's quick and easy for KC. Soria (shoulder), who missed over a week with a sore right shoulder, was available to return Friday, May 1. There wasn't an opportunity to use him in that game, but he earned a win and a save in the next two days.
His return means Cruz and any others that were snagged in hopes of vulturing a few saves can now be dropped.
Durability grade: 9
Job security grade: 10
Closer: Brian Fuentes
Next in line: Scot Shields
Other possibilities: Jose Arredondo
The taste of his second blown save Friday, May 1, didn't linger long for Fuentes; he came on in the ninth Monday, May 4, and locked down his sixth save of the year with a perfect inning. Still, he hasn't endeared himself to LA fans with his 7.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP.
However, don't expect there to be any changes anytime soon. The Halos have a lot of money invested in Fuentes so expect them to give him a long leash. Arredondo (5.68 ERA) and Shields (7.71 ERA) have been splitting the setup role.
Of those two, Arredondo appears the better option to stash. He has a 6.00 command ratio (18 K's, three BB's), and his BABIP is an astonishing .458. Once that regresses to the mean, as it should, look for his ERA and WHIP to follow suit.
Durability grade: 8
Job security grade: 8
Closer: Brad Ziegler
Next in line: Michael Wuertz, Andrew Bailey
Other possibilities: Jerry Blevins
Disabled list: Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla
A's stopper Ziegler (flu) was available Monday, May 4, after being sidelined by the flu for a couple of days. However, he wasn't needed as Oakland lost 5-2 to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The news tidbit for owners to note: Manager Bob Geren likes what he has seen from Wuertz and Bailey so much that he is considering using them in save situations even with Ziegler back.
Of the two, Geren went to Wuertz as his man in the ninth twice with Ziegler out. He is a soft tosser (90 mph fastball), but that hasn't stopped Geren from using Ziegler, another soft-tosser, as his stopper.
Geren also extolled praise for Bailey's stuff, saying several times Bailey has what it takes to be closer. Reports say Bailey will give him several save chances in the future.
The emergence of Wuertz and Bailey's has Geren considering letting the matchups dictate who will close in the future.
Durability grade: 9
Job security grade: 5
Closer: Brad Lidge
Next in line: Ryan Madson
Other possibilities: Chad Durbin
Fans can breathe easy for the time being; Lidge (knee) enjoyed a pain-free outing Saturday, May 2, though he walked two batters. He didn't suffer any ill effects from the appearance, either.
What was the problem with him? According to Lidge, the knee pain came from a hitch in his delivery. When he pitches from the stretch position, Lidge's back side has been dropping too low, putting too much pressure on his back leg. He is correcting the flaw, though, and said if anything, it should help him keep his mechanics in line in the future. Anytime they are out of line, he'll feel a pinch.
Still, given his two surgeries on the knee before 2008, it is something to keep in mind. As for Madson, he still has value because of his ratios, and he might vulture a couple of chances if Philly takes it easier on Lidge and his balky knee.
Durability grade: 7
Job security grade: 9
Closer: John Grabow, Tyler Yates
Next in line: Matt Capps
Capps (elbow) is dealing with irritation in his pitching elbow, but no structural or ligamentous damage was found. Manager John Russell said he expects Capps to return by this weekend; the right-hander's velocity wasn't affected, according to his skipper. Russell noted that Grabow and Yates will share the closer duties in the interim.
Capps blew his first save of the season Monday, May 4, allowing a three-run dinger to Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks and four total earned runs in the inning. It was his third straight appearance with at least one earned run allowed.
It's fair to assume the elbow discomfort played a large factor in his recent struggles, but Capps has dealt with surprisingly inconsistent control. He has already walked four batters in 8 1/3 innings this season after walking only five in 53 2/3 innings last year.
The good news for fantasy owners of Capps: The rest of the bullpen has been just as horrid, so it seems unlikely that either Grabow or Yates will steal the job from Capps during his injury stead. Grabow has given up four earned runs in his last four appearances, which also included a blown save Monday, May 4. Yates has looked good in his last three appearances, but he has a 7.56 ERA on the season. He is also the third pitcher Russell has been going to.
For now, Capps remains the man in Pittsburgh upon his return; you'll just have to grin and bear the inconsistent outings after the elbow irritation dies down. Grabow is the option if you want to stash a potential replacement or as insurance due to the unpredictable nature of an aggravated pitching elbow.
Durability grade: 7
Job security grade: 7
Closer: Ryan Franklin
Next in line: Kyle McClellan
Other possibilities: Chris Perez, Jason Motte, Dennys Reyes
Franklin continues to put his stamp on this job, making the most out of what was a dicey situation. He has run his scoreless innings streak to 11 1/3 innings and has added another save to his total in the last week.
In the words of pitching coach Dave Duncan, "I think what we've seen is guys establish themselves. As we've played games, they've established a kind of order." Duncan has also admitted it was optimistic of the Cards to expect youngsters Perez or Motte to step into the closer job right away.
That doesn't mean you should disregard Perez or Motte; both have phenomenal stuff. Just keep them around now as long-term options that are mainly valuable because of their ratios.
Durability grade: 9
Job security grade: 6
Closer: David Aardsma
Next in line: Shawn Kelley
Other possibilities: Chad Cordero, Mark Lowe, Miguel Batista
Disabled list: Brandon Morrow
The M's gave Morrow (biceps) all the time they could, but after a week of waiting, they finally pulled the trigger on his move to the disabled list. He will likely throw two more bullpens this week before coming off the disabled list Saturday, May 9.
Owners that haven't already pounced on Aardsma's impressive K rate should do so now and hope to steal a few saves this week. Even if Morrow returns healthy Saturday, hang on to the control-challenged Aardsma until Morrow demonstrates he is completely healthy.
Durability grade: 7
Job security grade: 5 (without Morrow)
Closer: Scott Downs
Next in line: Jesse Carlson
Other possibilities: Jason Frasor, Jeremy Accardo
Disabled list: B.J. Ryan
Jays manager Cito Gaston could have a closer controversy on his hands in the coming weeks. Downs has allowed just one earned run all season and has struck out 17 batters in 13 2/3 innings. He has had only one save chance in the last week, but he has nailed down all three of his opportunities since Ryan (shoulder) went down.
What about the disabled stopper, you ask? He has been sighted in Florida, where he will pitch twice for Class A Dunedin before moving north to Double-A New Hampshire. Ryan still needs to prove he can get his velocity and command back before returning, but general manager J.P. Ricciardi said "there's nothing wrong as far as him throwing right now." They have yet to set a timetable for his return. Keep him stashed on the DL.
Durability grade: 8
Job security grade: 9 (last week: 8)
Closer: N/A
Next in line: Julian Tavarez, Kip Wells
Other possibilities: Joel Hanrahan, Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann
Disabled list: Joe Beimel
The Nats' two-headed monster at closer could be growing a third head Wednesday, May 7. Beimel (hip) threw 25 pitches "exceptionally well" in a bullpen session Monday, May 4, and will be activated from the disabled list Wednesday.
Washington might feel Beimel can handle the job, but we aren't sold he is the option here. Tavarez was given the first (and only) save chance since Hanrahan was demoted in the middle of last week. Perhaps the most impressive stat from the former part-time starter: 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he blew up when brought in during the seventh inning Tuesday, May 5. He allowed three earned runs in just one-third of an inning.
As for Beimel, he has not eclipsed a dominance rate of 5.88 during his qualifying work (11.0 IP or more) in the majors since 2003. His control is his best quality. He's worth speculating on, but don't be too attached to him. Given Tavarez's implosion Tuesday, though, Beimel appears to be the best option here for now.
Wells has walked seven batters in just 6 1/3 innings while striking out just three. Stay away from him.
Something to file away: Heading into game action Tuesday, May 5, Hanrahan had three scoreless appearances (2 2/3 innings) and allowed only one hit since being demoted. We've seen how a demotion can spark a closer (see Street, Huston), so keep this in mind with Hanrahan. He might be worth grabbing in deep mixed leagues if you have the room.
Durability grade: N/A
Job security grade: N/A
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