New York Mets refinancing Citi Field, ruining return on Johan Santana

October 26, 2011

The discomforts of home?

The New York Mets haven't officially announced their intentions to change the dimensions of Citi Field, but, unofficially, work has already begun. The club is shrinking the distance between home plate and the outfield wall to create a neutral setting. A little more than a month ago, general manager Sandy Alderson all but confirmed that these alterations would take place.

The focus has been the improvements with respect to offense. It's no secret that multiple Metropolitans were unhappy with the distance to the fence (as well, no doubt, the height of said fence). As a result of this project, fantasy baseball gamers might - might - renew their interest in players like the formerly displeased David Wright (if he sticks around) and Jason Bay.

Did anybody ask Johan Santana - or any Mets pitcher, for that matter - for some input?

Increasing interest, passing principle

Alderson cited entertainment value as a motivator for the change, but if the club remains a loser, more runs won't increase attendance.

New York doesn't have the kind of staff that Alderson, as an exec with the San Diego Padres for five years, watched Kevin Towers piece together with other teams' scraps. This past season, the Mets were 13th in the National League in ERA (4.19). At Citi Field, their hurlers posted a 3.89 ERA (11th). They recorded the second-worst road ERA in the NL in 2011.

R.A. Dickey was the club's lone consistently dependable starter. Mike Pelfrey entered this past campaign as the team's ace. The Dillon Gee experiment seems to have run its course. Chris Capuano, of the 40.0 percent fly-ball rate, should probably sign elsewhere. (Welcome to the bigs, Chris Schwinden.)

Mets make Wright move, but will they deal David anyway?

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In all likelihood, of most interest to rotisserie players as 2012 approaches will be the outlook of Santana. In September of 2010, the once elite southpaw underwent surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his pitching shoulder. Mix that with declines in his advanced metrics, fastball velocity and opponents' plate discipline prior to the injury, plus his prior elbow problems and his fly-ball tendencies.

According to Baseball HQ, Citi Field in its first two seasons suppressed the ding dong output of right-handed batters by about 17 percent. A left-handed pitcher scheduled to make approximately $25 million per annum for the next two or three years might be tempted to do harm to the people who are going to make over this setup in Flushing, NY.

Someone at your fantasy baseball draft will be interested. Consider what was already working against him. Add to those things the expectation that Citi Field won't depress his at-risk rate of homers allowed. Doesn't sound like a particularly attractive investment, does it