Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove: Robinson Cano, Colby Lewis, Derek Lowe, more

October 31, 2011 @ 17:24:57

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Your fantasy baseball draft isn't far off. KFFL.com's Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove surveys free agency, trades, salary arbitration and injuries that will affect your rotisserie or head-to-head baseball league. You're cleared for your MLB offseason program: The Arizona Fall League, Baseball Winter Meetings, Rule 5 draft and more will shape your fantasy baseball rankings.

New York Yankees exercise 2012 options on 2B Robinson Cano, OF Nick Swisher

Duh. The second baseman batted .302 with 28 jacks and a career-high 118 driven in. He also swiped a personal-best eight bases. He's the class of his position, and no fact indicates that he won't remain so. Cano, 29, will be a first-round pick in all mainstream formats again in 2012.

Swisher's 2011 line - .260-23-85 - in the exact same PT thresholds he reached in 2010 - 150 games and 635 plate appearances - was respectable, but his postseason performances have been disappointing. But, it was a virtual certainty that his batting average would dip this season after he his average on balls in play in the previous season was an uncharacteristic .335. The switch-hitter's contact rate remained steady, his walk rate rebounded in a big way - to 15 percent - and, statistically at least, he was a plus fielder. His power production may have already reached its peak, but, in his age-32 season, Swish easily remains a threat for 20-plus homers and should come at a reasonable price.

Texas Rangers pick up SP Colby Lewis' 2012 option

At $3.25 million in 2012, Lewis is a bargain. Still, the right-hander's 2011 numbers (14-10, 4.40 ERA, 7.59 K/9 and 2.52 BB/9 in 200 1/3 innings) weren't as valuable as those from his 2010 campaign. His fastball and slider weren't as effective, it appears. The notable climb in Lewis' HR/FB (from 8.2 percent to 11.9 percent) wasn't the ideal ingredient to mix with his rising fly-ball rate (from 44.9 percent to 49.0 percent). The former development wasn't surprising; it's the latter that raises concerns, largely because of his home park.

Lewis was outstanding in the 2011 playoffs, it's worth noting, and he was very good on the road (9-5, 3.43 ERA, 8.94 K/9, 2.26 BB/9). It was most encouraging to see him improve upon his gains in control rate. The 32-year-old should be safe to buy, and some reversal of fortune in HR/9 would result in modest ROI.

Boston Red Sox kick in 2012 option on SS Marco Scutaro

Minor has shot at major role

Spring investors in Scutaro, 36, missed about 25 percent of the playing time that he'd accrued on average in his two seasons prior to 2011 thanks to his slow start in conjunction with Jed Lowrie's scorching beginning, as well as an oblique strain. He hit a career-best .299, however, and supplied the expected filler-type counting stats (seven homers, 54 RBIs, 59 runs, four thefts) in his 445 plate appearances.

Scutaro's BA has a reasonable chance of sliding backward, but his high rate of contact and environs solidify his baseline as something like a .280 hitter. One more campaign in Beantown should mean more of the same for deep-mixed and AL-only leaguers.

Lowrie's unreliable glove entrenches him in a super-utility role, although a prolonged Scutaro slump could recreate 2011's early-season job swap at some point. A prereq might be that the BoSox are struggling as a whole.

Cleveland Indians exercise SP Fausto Carmona's 2012 option

The Tribe seems more confident in Carmona's ability to bounce back than it does in Grady Sizemore's. The right-handed pitcher's $7 million option isn't too costly, and there's ample reason to believe that his performance will look considerably better than the 7-15 record, 5.25 ERA and 1.40 WHIP he notched in 2011.

Carmona's statistical indicators, in 188 2/3 stanzas (about 20 frames fewer than he pitched in 2010), weren't egregiously different from those of his previous season, when he went 13-14, with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. It has become obvious that Carmona engenders wildly inconsistent results from year to year; the time to buy is when he's coming off a poor rotisserie campaign. The ground-ball maven should improve his rate of homers against and runners stranded, thus becoming a profitable AL - and perhaps even deep-mixed - purchase.

Atlanta Braves trade SP Derek Lowe to Cleveland Indians, clear way for SP Mike Minor, SP Julio Teheran or SP Randall Delgado

Cleveland adds a grand ground-ball specialist to partner with Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson, as well as the grounder-favoring Ubaldo Jimenez. In two of the past three seasons, including this most recent one, Lowe has been a fantasy baseball liability. That's in spite of peripheral numbers that suggest he was pitching better than the surface marks indicated. So, what is the truth?

In 2011, Lowe's control rate eroded further (to 3.37 BB/9), offset to a tiny degree by his increased K/9 of 6.59. Despite the uptick in K's and his usual ground-ball prowess, the 38-year-old had more difficulty than usual stranding base runners. Perhaps the move to the AL will benefit the right-hander who has increasingly relied on off-speed stuff. That'll be the hope for brave buyers, anyway. Among qualifiers, Lowe posted the worst rate of pitches in the strike zone and had trouble getting ahead. Those two facts are part of a trend he must reverse in order to bring his roto numbers back into viability.

Minor's strikeout prowess and command rate have teased fantasy baseball players hoping for his establishment in the past couple of seasons. The southpaw has been particularly hittable in the bigs, however; he didn't diverge greatly from that trait on the farm, either. He became a regular part of the rotation in early August and provided a 2012 teaser by going 4-1 with a 3.83 ERA, a 9.30 K/9, a 2.74 BB/9 and a 1.42 WHIP (thanks to a .350 BABIP against) in nine starts. Minor, in his age-25 season, will have the upper hand when spring training begins, so he's the likeliest winner. If so, he'll likely possess the lowest profit potential.

Teheran and Delgado have the skills to succeed at the back end of this rotation, too. Teheran is facing adversity for the first time, since his electric stuff alone hasn't allowed him to succeed in the minors' upper levels and, especially, in his mottled major league debut. He's developed trouble with walks because he can no longer rely on the aggressiveness of the batter, like he did in the lower levels. Delgado is ahead of Teheran, especially in Atlanta's eyes; the organization liked his assertiveness in his spot starts down the stretch. Still, his indicators suggest that he pitched a bit above his head. The K ability of neither surfaced in the bigs this past season, and neither is a safer bet than Minor, but if each develops more quickly than expected, that would change.