Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove: Melky Cabrera, Jonathan Sanchez, Chien-Ming Wang, Juan Rivera, Jim Thome

November 7, 2011 @ 13:58:50

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Your fantasy baseball draft isn't far off. KFFL.com's Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove surveys free agency, trades, salary arbitration and injuries that will affect your rotisserie or head-to-head baseball league. You're cleared for your MLB offseason program: The Arizona Fall League, Baseball Winter Meetings, Rule 5 draft and more will shape your fantasy baseball rankings.

Kansas City Royals deal OF Melky Cabrera to San Francisco Giants for SP Jonathan Sanchez and P Ryan Verdugo, clear spot for Lorenzo Cain

Cabrera established career highs in batting average (.305), slugging percentage (.470), runs scored (102), home runs (18), RBIs (87) and stolen bases (20). The outfielder's fitness had been declining, culminating in a foul 2010 with the Atlanta Braves. The Melk Man entered KC's camp in 2011 in excellent condition and with something to prove.

New unis for Sanchez, Cabrera

Nothing about his hitting profile changed, however. The switch-hitter's 2011 was the product of dedication and some good fortune. Cabrera, 27, has always held the ability to be a solid or even above-average everyday player. Considering that San Fran at best represents a lateral move in terms of the offense and ballpark, he'll probably be a little overvalued in some circles. The Giants have a potential glut of outfielders, presenting an outside chance that his PT will be at risk, too.

Sanchez, coming off his age-28 campaign, has long been considered a roto underachiever who, if he could rein in the control rate just a bit, would be a dominant hurler. He has delivered on the prophecy on only one occasion, though - in 2010 (13-9, 3.07 ERA, 9.54 K/9, 4.47 BB/9). Much about that season made a repeat doubtable, and the southpaw hasn't really been a money-earner in any other year. At Fangraphs.com, Dave Cameron explores some reasons as to why.

Sanchez is still pretty young and, if healthy, can certainly deliver solid value with the Royals. His fantasy price shouldn't be high, but a sizable profit seems unlikely, even coming off a down year, however.

Verdugo will be entering his age-25 season having never pitched above the Double-A level, where he spent last season, also his first as a full-time starter. As a reliever, the lefty has posted outstanding rates of strikeouts per nine; naturally, his mark dipped - to a still enticing 9.18 K/9 - in 2011, when he also recorded a 4.35 ERA in the Eastern League. Like Sanchez, Verdugo has had trouble with the free pass, and his age leaves room to question how much of a prospect he really is.

Cain, a deep sleeper for many this past spring, will have every chance to be KC's opening day center fielder in 2012. In 181 lifetime plate appearances, he's hit .302 with one home run and seven stolen bases. He has the frame (6-foot-2, nearly 200 pounds) to suggest that he can sustain some of his 2011 power gains (16 PCL dingers) at Triple-A Omaha, where he also swiped 16 in his 549 plate appearances. He should be an attractive, low-risk player in deep mixed and AL leagues who has modest upside in his age-26 campaign.

Washington Nationals re-sign SP Chien-Ming Wang for one year

In 62 1/3 major league innings (can you believe, that many?), the right-hander was quite effective (4-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.88 BB/9) despite his trademark dearth of strikeouts (3.61 K/9). He leaned on his trademarked sinker to generate a characteristic 53.4 percent ground-ball rate.

If the former 19-game winner (twice) with the New York Yankees is finally past shoulder problems that debilitated him for several years, he could easily be a profitable investment in NL leagues, and even some mixed formats. With another strikeout per nine plus some improvement in that abnormal - for seasons in which he was healthy, at least - HR/9 (1.16), Wang, who'll be 32 next season, will have no innings limit in 2012.

1B/OF Juan Rivera signs for one year with Los Angeles Dodgers

The seemingly cost-conscious Dodgers seem to have ponied up too much ($4 million in 2012, plus an option for 2013) for the 31-year-old Rivera. In 521 plate appearances this past season, his second straight sub-standard year, he posted a .258/.319/.382 slash line. His marks with the Dodgers - .274/.333/.406 in 246 trips to the plate - may have been enough to convince the organization that he's a good fit as a part-timer.

Whether LA brings back James Loney or signs some other middling first baseman will probably have little effect on Rivera's PT. Hopefully, Rivera's presence has no bearing on Jerry Sands' PT. Perhaps, in the second half, Rivera finally put various health issues from the past few seasons in his rearview. There's no statistical evidence to support that theory, though. Deep mixed and NL-only players should consider him as a very low-cost player with little, if any, profit potential.

Philadelphia Phillies sign 1B Jim Thome to one-year contract

The Phils reportedly don't view Thome as much more than a bat off the bench, and his $1.25 million contract confirms that viewpoint. The 41-year-old slugger will take grounders in the offseason in order to prepare for times when the club needs him to man first base, but Philly doesn't plan to have him fill in for Ryan Howard (torn Achilles' tendon) regularly.

The likelihood that Thome's winter work will change the minds is low. The man who belted 40 bombs in a combined 553 at-bats in the past two seasons will probably have little fantasy value in NL leagues in 2012.