Who to Start, Who to Bench - Week 6

October 12, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Chalk Talk will look at second and third tier players and help you make a decision to start them or let them ride the bench. Let's face it, anyone can pencil in LaDainian Tomlinson or Marvin Harrison, but what about those No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 fantasy players on your roster? You know; the ones in which you need to look at, analyze the match-ups and then look at it again! Yep, those are the ones! The ones in which we read and reread the latest news and notes and still wonder what to do!

Well, we're here to give you a hand with those every week in Chalk Talk's "Who to Start and Who to Bench" column, though we admit, it's become more of a Strong Plays/Weak Plays column. This report is merely a taste of well-researched team reports from KFFL.com's Award Winning site.

We take a typical fantasy roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT and break the players down. If you enjoy these reports, you'll enjoy KFFL's weekly newsletter as well as our other services covering all the team's key players, game situation and more! These reports are excerpts taken from our weekly team analysis (over 160 pages of breakdowns)!

STRONG PLAY - QUARTERBACK

J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Losman hasn't give fantasy owners many reasons to own him. In the past four games the third-year signal-caller has passed for 187 yards and one touchdown, with one interception, per game. Losman's favorite target is the speedy receiver Lee Evans. The two did not have trouble getting much going against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, the team's last two opponents. They hooked up on 16 receptions for 184 yards and a score against two of the better pass defenses in the league.

It gets easier in Week 6. The Lions may have the worst pass defense in the league. In the past four weeks, Detroit has given up 291 yards and 2.8 touchdowns passing per game. The team has only intercepted opposing passers 0.3 times per game during that stretch. Losman looks like a good bet as a low-end No. 1 or a Bye fill-in.

STRONG PLAYS - RUNNING BACK

Maurice Morris, Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

With starter and reigning-league-MVP Shaun Alexander (foot) ruled out for Week 6, Morris is in line to get one more start. In Morris' first outing in that role he carried 11 times for 35 yards and caught one pass for two yards. That was against the Chicago Bears in Week 4, however; the Seahawks were down big early, forcing them to go to the air. What could Morris do against a lesser defense?

We may find out in Week 6. The Rams have gotten off to a surprising 4-1 start thanks in large part to improved play on defense. However, backs have still found success, averaging 109 rushing yards, 4.8 receptions, 20 receiving yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. This might be Mo's last chance to show what he can do before Alexander returns. View him as a low No. 3 or solid injury sub this Sunday.

Julius Jones, Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans

After a disappointing sophomore effort, Jones might be conning head coach Bill Parcells into believing that he is in the fact the talented runner Parcells thought he drafted. Since Week 2 (three games) Jones has averaged 105 yards and 0.33 touchdowns rushing per game. He has also caught one pass for 22 yards in that time.

The Texans should continue to aid Jones in gaining Parcells' trust. In the past four weeks (three games) this team has allowed 135 yards and 1.67 scores rushing to backs. They've also given up 6.67 receptions, 73 yards and 0.33 TDs per game to the position in that time. Jones could be in for a big week, so view hip as a top-tier No. 1 for Week 6.

STRONG PLAYS - WIDE RECEIVER

Darrell Jackson, Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Coming off a Bye week, D-Jax has put to rest any notions that he couldn't be effective after knee surgery. In his past three games he has averaged 5.67 receptions, 82 yards and one touchdown per game. Seattle has been utilizing four-receiver sets and passing more while back Shaun Alexander is out. That increases Jackson's chances.

In Week 6 you have to like his chances. The Rams are playing better, but their defense still has weaknesses. The biggest might be the pass defense. In the past four games wideouts have averaged 14 catches, 221 yards and 1.3 scores per game against St. Louis. Consider D-Jax a top-level No. 1 receiver this Sunday.

Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Evans was taken as a No. 2 receiver in many drafts because of his big-play ability. With quarterback J.P. Losman throwing to him, however, that hasn't altogether materialized yet this season. Since Week 2 Evans has tallied 6.5 catches, 78 yards but just 0.3 scores per game. Defenses have clamped down on the team's No. 1 target.

Detroit has made many receivers look like stars, whether they have had help or not. In the past four games the Lions have given up 11 receptions, 162 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Evans should have little trouble, so view him as a low No. 1 or high No. 2 in Week 6.

Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Someone has needed to step up with Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Donte' Stallworth (hamstring) out of action for large portions of the past two weeks. Brown has been that guy so far. In the past four weeks Brown has averaged 3.3 catches, 68 yards and 0.5 scores per game. His output is likely to continue against the New Orleans Saints. Since Week 2 that squad has yielded 11 receptions, 150 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to the position. Brown should serve you well as a high No. 2 this week.

STRONG PLAY - TIGHT END

Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants

Fantasy owners may be wondering why Crumpler's name isn't near the top of the points producers at the position this year. In the past four weeks (three games) the big man has just 2.67 receptions, 34 yards and zero touchdowns per game. Don't sweat, folks, he's still quarterback Michael Vick's favorite target. He has seven per game (12 percent), including 1.67 per game in the red zone (13 percent), in that time.

This week Vick should be able to unleash Crumpler. The Giants have been generous to the tight end position, giving up five receptions, 64 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. They might not have the personnel to stick with the more agile tight ends in the league. This week you should view him as no worse than a second-tier No. 1.

STRONG PLAY - PLACE KICKER

Matt Stover, Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers

Stover got off to a strong start this year, but he has cooled off in the past two games. In the last four games Stover has two field goal attempts and one extra point attempt per game, though. The Carolina Panthers have been improving on defense, but kickers are still getting theirs. In that same time period, players at the position have attempted 2.8 field goals and 1.3 extra points per game. Stover is still a solid third-tier No. 1 kicker for you in Week 6.

STRONG PLAY - DEFENSIVE TEAM

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

After a couple of weeks, it looked like the Bills were going to recapture the magic of their great season on defense in 2004. In the past four weeks, though, they have allowed 20 offensive points per game. They've notched 2.5 sacks but only one turnover per game in that time. They're probably looking forward to playing a more error-prone opponent.

Well what do you know? It says here that in Week 6 Buffalo visits Detroit. Since Week 2 that squad has scored 21 points per game on offense. It has also given up four sacks, 1.5 interceptions, 1.3 fumble recoveries and 0.5 defensive touchdowns per game to the defense. With that sort of potential, the Bills are worth the risk as a second-tier No. 1 defense this Sunday.

WEAK PLAY - QUARTERBACK

Eli Manning, New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Manning and the Giants are off to a slow start, but you wouldn't be able to tell from Eli's numbers. In the past four weeks (three games) Peyton's little bro has passed for 301 yards and 2.33 touchdowns, with 1.33 interceptions, per game. His decision making remains questionable, but fantasy owners love those stats.

The Falcons have made passers pay for their bad decisions this year. In the past four weeks (three games) opposing quarterbacks have thrown for just 227 yards and zero touchdowns per game. Atlanta has also intercepted 1.67 passes per game. The forecast doesn't look sunny in the Georgia Dome, making Manning an injury fill-in at best for Week 6.

WEAK PLAYS - RUNNING BACK

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers

Some wondered if Gore could handle the load after the team traded maligned tailback Kevan Barlow to the New York Jets. Gore shushed them immediately and in the past four games has averaged 95 yards rushing, 3.3 receptions, 21 yards receiving and 0.3 touchdowns per game. The coaching staff has expressed concern about his fumbling problems (four lost in five games), though. For the position, fellow back Michael Robinson got all three utilizations inside the 5 in Week 5.

San Diego should be another concern. Since Week 2 (three games) this team has held opposing backs to 50 rushing yards, 3.33 catches, 23 receiving yards and 0.33 total touchdowns. Don't look for Gore to be more than a low-end No. 3 back against the Chargers.

Travis Henry, Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins

Henry, active for just the third time in five games, rushed for 123 yards and caught two passes for 10 yards as his team gave the Indianapolis Colts a royal scare. Since Week 2 (two games) Henry has averaged 92 rushing yards, two receptions and 10 receiving yards per game. Uncertainty has surrounded the Titans backfield, although Henry and back LenDale White appear to be the top options right now.

Uncertainty surrounds Henry's fantasy prospects in Week 6, too. Since Week 2 Washington has limited opposing backs to 91 yards rushing, 2.8 receptions, 43 yards receiving and 0.5 scores per game. Check on Tennessee's backfield situation throughout the week, and consider Henry as no more than a low No. 2 or high No. 3 for Sunday.

WEAK PLAYS - WIDE RECEIVER

Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Johnson hasn't been himself yet in the 2006 season. Maybe taking away his end zone acts have crushed the poor guy's spirit. He has yet to catch a pass for more than 18 yards. In the past four weeks (three games) Johnson has notched just 4.33 receptions, 51 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. A shoulder injury has also hampered him.

Tampa Bay may be able to keep his mouth shut. In the past four weeks (three games) the Buccaneers have held opposing wideouts to 9.67 catches, 126 yards and 0.33 scores per game. It's hard to expect Johnson to get it going in Week 6. It's hard to believe, but consider Johnson a low No. 3 or a good Bye-week sub.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy leaguers who drafted Housh missed him for the first two weeks, but in his return he's been great. Coming off the Bye (and in two games) he has averaged 6.5 receptions, 95 yards and one touchdown per game. As the Cincinnati passing game looks to get back in sync, Houshmandzadeh should get better.

He should, but don't expect it to happen every week. For instance, in Week 6 he faces Tampa Bay. In the past four weeks (three games) the Buccaneers have held opposing wideouts to 9.67 catches, 126 yards and 0.33 scores per game. This Sunday is the time to temper your expectations from Housh; view him as simply a low No. 1 or high No. 2.

Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Galloway owners have been wondering what's up with his numbers this season. They were encouraged Sunday, Oct. 8, when he caught four balls for 104 yards and a score. Perhaps he's back on track. Since Week 2 (three games) he has averaged 4.67 receptions, 93 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game.

Don't get suckered in just yet. He does have a rookie (signal-caller Bruce Gradkowski) throwing to him. It's possible that Gradkowski snuck up on the team's Week 5 opponent, the New Orleans Saints. Coming off a Bye, the Bengals might not make the same mistake. In the last three games they've limited wideouts to 8.33 catches, 118 yards and 0.33 scores per game. Don't consider Galloway as more than a very low No. 1 or high No. 2 for Week 6.

WEAK PLAY - TIGHT END

Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Shockey was one of the top fantasy tight ends coming into the season, but his production hasn't been there. In the past four weeks (three games) he has averaged just 2.33 receptions, 29 yards and no touchdowns per game. Shockey (ankle, foot) must deal with an ankle injury for the foreseeable future, and Sunday he injured his foot as well.

The Falcons certainly won't take pity on him. In the past four weeks (three games) this team has limited tight ends to 1.67 catches and 15 yards per game. Atlanta has yet to allow a touchdown to the position. View Shockey as a very low No. 1 or a Bye week sub for Week 6.

WEAK PLAY - PLACE KICKER

Neil Rackers, Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears

This year Rackers isn't having the type of season that vaulted him to fantasy prominence last year. In 2005 he nailed a ridiculous 40 of his 42 field goal attempts. This year he's just 6-for-9. In the past four weeks he has attempted 1.8 field goals and 1.5 extra point attempts per game. He's been good on only four of his seven attempts in that time. With a rookie at quarterback, will this offense score at last year's pace?

The Cardinals aren't likely to score at last year's pace against Chicago. No one can score on them period. That includes kickers, who since Week 2 have averaged 1.5 field goal attempts and 0.8 extra point attempts per game. Consider benching Rackers for Week 6.

WEAK PLAY - DEFENSIVE TEAM

Washington Redskins vs. Tennessee Titans

The Redskins thought their team would be in better shape after five weeks. With a dependable defense, they could go places. Well, since Week 2 that defense has allowed 23 offensive points per game. They've also registered just 1.5 sacks and one turnover per game. That's not what they're looking for defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' unit.

Fantasy owners might be quick to use Washington's defense against the Titans, led by rookie quarterback Vince Young. After all, the team has averaged a mere 11 offensive points per game in its last four contests. They have surrendered one sack per game and turned the ball over 2.3 times per game in that time. But Young and the team showed rapid progress in a 14-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They gave up no sacks and just one turnover while scoring those 13 points. This could be a trap game, so you should consider benching the Redskins defense in Week 6.

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Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

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