Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 2

September 14, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterback - Strong Play

Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Fum Lost/G
Favre	1	206.0	0.00	1.00	-2.0	0.00	1.00
Giants vs. Pos.	1	345.0	4.00	1.00	11.0	1.00	0.00

The veteran signal-caller posted modest totals in Week 1, but he had little help from an overpowered offensive line and an understaffed receiving corps. The former is thought to be one of Green Bay's strengths, so it's unlikely they'd struggle in pass protection in consecutive weeks. However, the latter could continue to haunt Favre as wide receivers Greg Jennings (hamstring) and Carlyle Holiday (knee) could both miss Sunday's game. Even with that potential adversity, Favre still looks like a strong play against a New York secondary that was totally overmatched in Week 1. If your regular quarterback has a tough matchup this week, you can feel comfortable inserting Favre into your starting lineup.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Warrick Dunn, Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Dunn	1	55.0	0.00	4.00	26.0	0.00	0.00
Jaguars vs. Pos.	1	241.0	0.00	4.00	16.0	0.00	0.00

One week after playing arguably the NFL's toughest running defense, the Falcons face a Jacksonville club that was pounded into submission on the ground in Week 1. In the process they made Tennessee Titans running back Chris Brown fantasy football's hottest waiver acquisition. This Sunday it could be Dunn's turn to pull the trick as the Falcons look to rebound from a terrible Week 1 loss. Play Dunn as a solid No. 2 back this week.

Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Barber	1	65.0	1.00	1.00	29.00	0.00	0.00
Dolphins vs. Pos.	1	165.0	1.00	1.00	22.0	0.00	0.00

A touchdown machine a season ago, Barber was up to his old tricks in Week 1 with 84 total yards and a score. Some might be concerned with the amount of touches running back Julius Jones receives on a weekly basis and use that logic to downgrade Barber. Don't make that mistake. The Dolphins proved last week there is plenty to go around against their defense as they managed to make both Washington Redskins running backs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts look like stars. Start Barber as a weak No. 1 or strong No. 2 candidate this week.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Berrian	1	5.0	83.0	0.00	0.00
Chiefs vs. Pos.	1	10.0	185.0	1.00	1.00

Berrian was probably the one positive sign offensively to come out of the Bears' Week 1 loss to the San Diego Chargers. The fourth-year receiver had five receptions for 83 yards in that game, and he has to be licking his lips at the prospect of matching up with the Kansas City secondary in front of a rabid Windy City crowd for the team's home opener. Find Berrian a spot in your lineup as your No. 2 or No. 3 receiver this Sunday.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Holmes	1	2.0	55.0	1.00	0.00
Bills vs. Pos.	1	17.0	236.0	1.00	0.00

The Steelers didn't throw for a ton of yards last week against the Cleveland Browns, but they did manage to score four touchdowns through the air. In Week 2 they face an already suspect Buffalo defensive backfield that will now be without cornerback Jason Webster (forearm) for the remainder of the 2007 season. We're sure Pittsburgh will note the ease with which the Denver Broncos moved the ball on Buffalo as the 236 yards they allowed to opposing receivers was the third-highest total in the NFL in Week 1. You can play Holmes as a No. 1 receiver against the Bills in Week 2.

Tight End - Strong Play

Bubba Franks, Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Franks	1	2.0	17.0	0.00	0.00
Giants vs. Pos.	1	6.0	116.0	1.00	0.00

Earlier on we mentioned that Favre and the Packers could once again be short-handed in the receiver department. A positive by-product of this for anyone scouring the waiver wires for a good pickup-and-play option at tight end this Sunday is the anticipated increased role of the tight end in Green Bay's offense. Franks caught only two balls in Week 1, and this week he goes up against a Giants defense that was victimized often by Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten. While Franks is no Witten, he could still serve as a solid one-week stopgap at the position. His value is increased with the potential loss of tight end Donald Lee (knee), who may be sidelined with a knee injury.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Crosby	1	3.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	10.0
Giants vs. Pos.	1	1.0	1.0	6.0	6.0	9.0

Our third Packers strong play of the week is the rookie Crosby, who had a tremendous game against the Philadelphia Eagles and became the first rookie to kick a game-winning field goal on opening weekend since Matt Bahr 28 years ago. He should see more opportunities this weekend facing a team that allowed a league-worst 45 points in Week 1. Play him as a strong No. 1 kicker this Sunday.

Team Defense - Strong Play

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Bengals Def.	1	14.0	2.0	2.0	4.0
Browns Off.	1	7.0	6.0	2.0	3.0

One doesn't normally associate the Cincinnati Bengals with strong defensive play, but then again one doesn't really associate the Cleveland Browns with NFL football, either (bring on the hate mail, Cleveland!). To be fair, the Bengals actually played a tremendous defensive game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 as they forced six turnovers, including a beautiful interception to stop Baltimore's game-tying efforts late in the fourth quarter. On the other side of things, the Browns appear to already be in full-fledged panic mode after committing five turnovers and being blown out in their home opener. This looks like a dream matchup for fantasy owners, so start the Bengals with confidence this week.

Quarterback - Weak Play

Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Fum Lost/G
Kitna	1	289.0	3.00	2.00	17.0	0.00	0.00
Vikings vs. Pos.	1	199.0	0.00	2.00	8.0	0.00	0.00

Kitna looked good against an Oakland Raiders team that actually featured a stout and prideful pass defense in 2006. However, that trend may not continue this weekend against a Vikings defense that gave Kitna nightmares a season ago (six interceptions and eight sacks in two games) and looks like they may have actually improved. Minnesota put the clamps on former Lions (and current Falcons) quarterback Joey Harrington in Week 1. Look for them to do the same to the current Lions quarterback in this early season NFC North tilt.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Lynch	1	90.0	1.00	2.0	9.0	0.00	0.00
Steelers vs. Pos.	1	46.0	0.00	4.0	18.0	1.00	1.00

Though it was lost a bit in the performance of Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, Buffalo's rookie back also had a nice debut with just shy of 100 yards and the Bills' lone offensive touchdown. The going figures to get tougher this week when the Bills travel to Pittsburgh. The Steelers completely stymied Cleveland's ground game in Week 1. Expect them to put eight in the box and dare quarterback J.P. Losman to beat them deep. Lynch is still a No. 2 back this week, but you may want to review your other options.

Ahman Green, Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Green	1	73.0	0.00	4.0	23.0	0.00	0.00
Panthers vs. Pos.	1	58.0	0.00	5.0	22.0	0.00	2.00

For one week the Texans looked smart for giving Green big money during the offseason as the veteran ran hard and helped Houston to a nice opening weekend victory. Unfortunately it could a reality check for the Texans as a whole, and their running game in particular, when they travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers in Week 2. Carolina pummeled Rams running back Steven Jackson as they held him to just 58 yards rushing and forced a pair of critical second-half fumbles. Green still carries the stigma of being a fumbler himself, and he should be played only as a weak No. 2 or decent No. 3 option this week.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Antwaan Randle El, Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Randle El	1	5.0	162.0	0.00	0.00
Eagles	1	12.0	109.0	0.00	0.00

There's a saying in sports that gets repeated only about 2,481,073 times every year and that saying is, "It's better to be lucky than good." Well in fantasy this week we'd rather go with the good (Philadelphia's pass rush and secondary) over the lucky (Randle El and the tipped Hail Mary that took his stats from good to excellent) and play the former college quarterback as nothing more than a decent No. 2 receiver.

Wes Welker, New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Welker	1	6.0	61.0	1.00	0.00
Chargers vs. Pos.	1	6.0	91.0	0.00	0.00

Welker looked good in his New England debut as he hauled in six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. Of course the Patriots' offensive line gave quarterback Tom Brady all day to scan field against the New York Jets and he picked them apart with ease. Don't expect anything easy this Sunday night when a Chargers team with a lot to prove comes to Foxboro. San Diego has not forgotten how their season ended a year ago nor have they forgotten how the Patriots celebrated on their home field following the victory. This promises to be a physical game and San Diego's pass rush almost certainly won't permit Brady the kind of time in the pocket the Jets afforded him in Week 1. Welker's a tough receiver, though, so don't banish him to the bench. Instead simply temper expectations and view him as a weak No. 1 or strong No. 2 possibility this week.

Tight End - Weak Play

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Jason Witten	1	6.0	116.0	1.00	0.00
Dolphins vs. Pos.	1	1.0	10.0	0.00	0.00

A week after torching the Redskins for 116 yards and a score Witten finds himself as a weak play in Week 2. His opponent this week proved in the season opener they can contain a top-flight tight end when they held Redskins tight end Chris Cooley to just one reception. The Cowboys have more weapons at their disposal than Washington did, so perhaps Witten can still have a productive day. Just don't expect him to duplicate his Week 1 numbers. Play Witten as a solid No. 1 fantasy tight end against Miami.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Kaeding	1	1.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
Patriots vs. Pos.	1	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	2.0

We're sure plenty of fickle fantasy owners soured on Kaeding after he accounted for just two points last week. Well, things aren't looking much better for him this week as San Diego has to endure a second consecutive meeting against an elite-level defense, and this time it's on the road. There should certainly be better brighter days ahead for both Kaeding and San Diego's offense as a whole, but this week he should be benched.

Team Defense - Weak Play

Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Panthers Def.	1	13.0	238	1.0	0.0	2.0
Texans Off.	1	20.0	315	2.0	1.0	1.0

The Panthers held the Rams in check last week, but outside of the two previously mentioned Jackson fumbles, the Carolina defense was completely devoid of the big play. Perhaps more alarming was their inability to sack Rams quarterback Marc Bulger more than once, even though he dropped back to pass over 40 times, and the team lost their best blocker in left tackle Orlando Pace. Conversely, the Texans did a pretty good of protecting their quarterback and limiting their mistakes in Week 1. Carolina could once again struggle to force big plays, which makes them a unit to bench this Sunday.

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Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

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