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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 20 - Updated

January 19, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By James Eberspacher and Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Another year of football is here. Ho Hum. Wait, we're just kidding! We're very excited about the season and look forward to each week. We're pleased to again bring you the "Strong Plays/Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong match-ups of interest you can exploit, as well as determine a few weak match-ups where discretion may be the better part of valor and you might want to consider benching your player in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "start LaDainian Tomlinson or Peyton Manning," but to point out some match-ups involving typically lesser regarded players. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a stud's match-up, particularly if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong match-up, it is not an automatic endorsement - saying they should be started - but it does provide you some valuable information to make decisions with. As an example, some players with the "strong" match-up tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant automatically benching someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy match-up every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the "Weak Play" situation.

QUARTERBACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

In his career, Delhomme has been at his best during the playoffs, and this has held true this season. It helps to have WR Steve Smith on your side. In the past four games, Delhomme has passed for 221 yards, 2 TDs and 0.5 INTs per game.

It may help to play against Seattle's defense as well. In the last four weeks (three games), quarterbacks have thrown for 285 yards, 1 TD and 0.33 INTs per game against the Seahawks.

NEW - Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

There aren't many who believed that Plummer could win in the playoffs, but here he is, on the doorstep of the Super Bowl. In the past four weeks (three games), he's thrown for just 185 yards, 0.33 TDs and 0.67 INTs per game. He played a very short time in Week 17, and he averaged 210 yards, 1.1 TD and 0.4 INTs passing in the regular season. Last week, he passed for 197 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

It's the Steelers that stand in Plummer's way, but lately they haven't been standing in the way of opposing quarterbacks. In the past four games, Pittsburgh has allowed 237 yards, 1.3 TDs and 0.5 INTs passing per game to the position.

QUARTERBACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Big Ben has been as sharp as a razor blade in the playoffs this year, which happens to be a sharp contrast to his performance last year. He has his team on the cusp of a Super Bowl berth, and in his last four games, he has thrown for 192 yards, 1.5 TDs and 0.8 INTs per game.

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Denver however, and that is one tough place to play. For opposing signal-callers, the Broncos have been particularly difficult recently. In the past four weeks (three games), the Broncos have held players at the quarterback position to 234 yards, 0.33 TDs and 1.33 INTs passing per game.

NEW - Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

Hasselbeck showed some mettle in leading the Seahawks to victory despite the fact that his team lost its star tailback early in the contest. Although he played a limited amount of time in Week 17, in the past four weeks (three games), Hasselbeck has still passed for 153 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs per game and rushed for 0.33 TDs per game. In the first game of the playoffs he threw for 215 yards, 1 TD, ran for 21 yards and another score.

With Alexander available and 100 percent, expect Seattle to lean a little more heavily on the NFL's MVP than they were able to in the divisional round. Also, don't forget that Carolina has been tough, holding opposing passers to 185 yards, 0.8 TDs and 1.5 INTs passing per game in their past four games.

RUNNING BACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris, Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

When Seattle lost Alexander (concussion) for the remainder of Sunday's game, you could hear the entire city suck in some wind. Relax folks, the NFL's MVP expects to play in the NFC Championship game. The league's rushing leader tallied 123 total yards and 1.8 TDs per game during the regular season. In limited time during the past four weeks (three games), he averaged 76 total yards and 1.33 TDs. In that time, Morris notched 49 total yards per game as well. Sunday, Alexander's backup filled in admirably with 65 total yards.

Both backs have, believe it or not, a solid matchup against the Panthers. In the last four games, the NFC's other finalist has allowed 93 rushing yards, 34 receiving yards and 1 TD per game to opposing running backs.

NEW - Mack Strong, Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

Only the Strong survive, and Mack lived on as Seattle advanced to the NFC title game. In the past four weeks (three games), the bruising fullback has notched 13 yards rushing and 14 yards receiving per game. In Sunday's playoff match, he rushed three times for 40 yards. If Alexander (concussion) is still a little loopy, Strong may get the chance again.

If Strong heeds the call, he may get the opportunity to do some real damage. In the past four contests, the Panther have allowed 93 rushing yards, 34 receiving yards and 1 TD per game to opposing backs.

RUNNING BACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Fast Willie has been an ideal complement to Bettis this season. In the team's last four games, Parker has racked up 91 rushing yards, 19 receiving yards and 0.5 TDs per game - solid numbers WITHOUT splitting time. Throw in the Bus, who has bulldozed his way to 41 yards and 1.5 TDs per game in that time, and that's one dangerous backfield.

This gravy train may not make all its stops in the AFC Championship game because Denver has been turning away backs quite frequently. In the past four weeks (three games), the Broncos have yielded just 86 yards rushing, 31 yards receiving and 0.33 TDs per game to the position.

NEW - Nick Goings, Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

When the going gets tough, the tough get Goings. With RB DeShaun Foster (ankle) out, Carolina will likely turn to Nick Goings to tote the rock the majority of the time. In mostly a backup role during the team's last four games, he's ripped off 30 yards rushing and 14 yards receiving per game. As what seemed like the 47th string tailback last year, Goings started the last eight games and rocked for 125 total yards with 0.8 TDs per game during them.

That's in the past, and it was during the regular season; this is the present, and we're talking about the playoffs. Goings will step into the lineup for a team fighting to get to the Super Bowl. He'll be doing it against a Seahawks defense that has allowed just 53 rushing yards, 42 receiving yards and 0.33 TDs per game to backs in the past four weeks (three games). They yielded just 78 total yards and no scores to the Washington Redskins' backfield last Saturday.

WIDE RECEIVERS - STRONG PLAYS

Steve Smith and Ricky Proehl, Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

This may come as a surprise, but Steve Smith has been unstoppable in the playoffs. In the last four games, the Comeback Player of the Year has hauled in 8 balls per game for 113 yards and 1 TD per game. In the playoffs (two games), Smith has 11 receptions, 151 yards and 1.5 TDs per game! Proehl has emerged as a solid sidekick, averaging 2 catches, 40 yards and 0.5 TDs in the last four games. In the playoffs, Proehl has 1.5 receptions and 14 yards per game.

Smith would seem to be a strong play no matter the opponent. But when the opponent is Seattle, he's all the more enticing. In the last four weeks (three games), the Seahawks have given up 13 catches, 189 yards and 1 TD per game to receivers. This makes Proehl a good bet as well.

WIDE RECEIVERS - WEAK PLAYS

Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie, Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The incredibly reliable Smith has been a little quiet in recent times, although it's partially due to his limited playing time in Week 17. In the last four weeks (three games), the Pro Bowler has notched 4 receptions, 66 yards and 0.33 TDs per game. Smith's partner-in-crime, Lelie, has 4.33 catches and 60 yards per game during that same span. In the Broncos' first playoff game, Smith had 6 receptions, 96 yards and a score, while Lelie tallied 5 grabs for 50 yards.

It might not be so easy for these two in the AFC Championship game. In the past four games, Pittsburgh has held opposing wideouts to 11 receptions, 144 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. In the playoffs (two games), when their opponents have included the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts, the Steelers have allowed 13 catches, 193 yards and 0.5 TDs per game to the position.

NEW - Darrell Jackson, Joe Jurevicius and Bobby Engram, Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

It wasn't certain that Jackson (knee) would be at full strength for the playoffs. He turned in a heroic performance in the divisional round, hauling in 9 passes for 143 yards and a score. He should be able to go this weekend, and in the past four weeks (two games), he's averaged 6 receptions, 89 yards with 0.5 TDs. His mates, Jurevicius and Engram, showed that they were capable of handling the load in his absence during the regular season. In the last four weeks (three games), Jurevicius has 1.67 catches, 24 yards and 0.33 TDs per game, while Engram has 2 catches with 18 yards per game.

Carolina presents quite a challenge for this trio, however. In the last four games, the Panthers have limited wide receivers to 9.3 receptions, 129 yards and 0.5 TDs per game.

TIGHT ENDS - STRONG PLAYS

Jeb Putzier, Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

You probably need a searchlight to find Putzier the last few weeks. The Broncos tight end has only caught a total of five balls for 57 yards in the last two games of the season and last week's playoff game. That is only 1.67 receptions and 19 yards per game. By the way, Putzier has not caught a touchdown all season.

Now for the good news... Putzier faces the Steelers this week. The Steelers are giving up the farm to the position the last four games. In those games, tight ends are putting up 5 receptions, 52 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Those numbers make them the most favorable match-up for Putzier out of any other remaining playoff team.

In a short list of available tight ends, you need to look for any advantage you can. Putzier's match-up against the Steelers is just the strong play you need this week.

NEW - Stephen Alexander, Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Before we get to the numbers on Alexander - because they are not good - keep in mind the number of tight ends left as we attempt to give you a case for Alexander's strong play tag. With that said, here is the scoop on Alexander. In the last three games, he has a total of three receptions for 28 yards and has not scored a touchdown. Those numbers equal to one reception and 9.33 yards per game.

Alexander's numbers certainly do not make the case for a strong play; however, this week's opponent does. Since Week 16, the Steelers are allowing 5 receptions, 52 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to the position. Now those are numbers you can hang your fantasy hat on this week. While Alexander is not your best option - even with the strong play - he is a guy with an upside in a short list of able bodies. Slot him in as an available option at tight end and a strong play this week.

TIGHT ENDS - WEAK PLAYS

Jerramy Stevens, Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

Stevens was a non-factor in the Seahawks' playoff game last week. He only managed two receptions and 13 yards. In his last three games, Stevens is not posting very good numbers - 2.33 receptions, 17 yards and 0.33 touchdowns.

With the Panthers rolling into town, Stevens probably will not be having a monster game. Last week, the Panthers held the Chicago Bears tight ends in check by only giving up two receptions for five yards, though one reception was for a touchdown. Overall since Week 16, the Panthers are allowing 3.3 receptions, 43 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

With only four teams remaining in the playoffs, the list of tight ends is slim. While Stevens' match-up is unfavorable, he is still our highest rated tight end because of his potential and talent compared to the rest of the group.

NEW - Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

In the Steelers' upset over the Indianapolis Colts last week, Miller was a solid target for QB Ben Roethlisberger. In that game, Miller hauled in 3 receptions for 61 yards and 1 touchdown. However, since Week 16, his numbers have been sporadic while averaging 2.3 receptions, 40 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game.

After last week's solid effort from Miller, we may be in for a let down. Miller has turned in solid efforts only to disappoint the following week. Facing the Broncos this week certainly is not going to help snap this trend. In the last three games, the Broncos are only allowing 1.67 receptions and 17 yards per game to the position. Even worse for Miller is that the Broncos have not allowed a tight end to score since Week 13.

What we have just done is make the case for Miller's weak play tag. We are not doing is making the case for you to go diving in a talent pool with very little water - the talent at the position simply is not there anymore. Miller is still a regular target in the Steelers offense and will get looks. He simply does not have a good match-up. Miller should be high on your list of tight ends even as a weak play.

PLACE KICKERS - STRONG PLAYS

John Kasay, Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Kasay has been money for fantasy owners the last four weeks. Since Week 16, he has only missed one kick en route to 11 points per game. Those points are coming from 2.8 FGAs and three XPAs per game.

The veteran kicker may get his shot at continuing to be one of the hottest kickers left in the playoffs against the Seahawks. In the last three games, this unit is allowing 9.3 potential points from 2.67 FGAs and 1.33 XPAs per game.

Keep riding the Kasay bandwagon against the Seahawks. He is a strong play place kicker this week.

PLACE KICKERS - WEAK PLAYS

Josh Brown, Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

With only four kickers playing this week, you better choose wisely or hope you do not have Brown kicking for your squad. In the last three games, Brown has only managed 6.67 potential points per game. That is only because he is kicking only 1.33 FGAs and 2.67 XPAs per game.

Brown may not get many opportunities against the Panthers this week. The Panthers are the best remaining playoff team at limiting kicking points. In fact, they have allowed fewer potential points - 3.8 per game - than many teams that did not even make the playoffs. In all, kickers are only averaging 1.5 FGAs and 0.8 XPAs per game since Week 16 against the Panthers.

Brown has not been getting many opportunities recently and the Panthers do not allow many points to the position. That adds up to a weak play and a bottom-dwelling ranking for Brown this week.

NEW - Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Reed has been absolutely golden for the Steelers during their run for the playoffs and now the Super Bowl. While he has not missed a kick in the last four games, that does not necessarily mean he is money for your fantasy squad. Since Week 16, Reed is only averaging 6.5 points from 0.8 FGAs and 4.3 XPAs per game.

Kicking in the Mile High City usually comes with some benefits - thin air equals long field goals. However, it is January and the weather could be extremely unkind this weekend. Reed will have to battle this while facing a Broncos unit only allowing 4.67 potential points from 1.33 FGAs and 0.67 XPAs per game. Needless to say Reed is a weak play against the Broncos.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Defense wins championships, right? Look no further than the Panthers, a team that is playing some excellent defense in the playoffs - 21 points allowed, 6 takeaways and 5 sacks. Their numbers since Week 16 are just as good - 14 offensive points allowed, 3 takeaways, 4.8 sacks and 0.3 touchdowns per game.

The Panthers defense will need to continue to play well if they want a shot in beating the Seahawks this week. The Seahawks offense is averaging 22 offensive points, while giving up 1.67 takeaways and 2 sacks per game since Week 16.

The Panthers defense has been red hot lately. They should be able to stay red hot against a banged up Seahawks' offense. With the strong play, the Panthers are the highest rated defense this week.

DEFENSIVE TEAMS - WEAK PLAYS

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

Overall, the Seahawks have been playing some good football, defense included. In the last three games, they are only giving up 15 offensive points per game. However, they are not doing much more than that. In those games, the Seahawks are only managing 1.67 takeaways and 2.33 sacks per game.

The Seahawks defense dominated the Washington Redskins offense for three quarters in their playoff game last week. Keep in mind though, that was an offense that could not move the ball in either playoff game. This week they are facing a Panthers offense that can move the ball. Since Week 16, the Panthers are scoring 27 offensive points, allowing only 2.3 sacks and 0.8 turnovers per game.

The Seahawks will face a good Panthers offense this week with arguably the best wide receiver this season, Steve Smith. That could pose problems for a defense that almost blew the game in the fourth quarter against a poor playing Redskins' offense. The Seahawks are a weak play and should be the last defense on the chart.

Author Bio

James Eberspacher

James Eberspacher has been Commissioner of a "high performance" fantasy football league since 1994. He has created an entertaining and challenging league by designing a unique scoring system and a creative sense of writing and style. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.