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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 19 - Updated

January 12, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix and James Eberspacher
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Another year of football is here. Ho Hum. Wait, we're just kidding! We're very excited about the season and look forward to each week. We're pleased to again bring you the "Strong Plays/Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong match-ups of interest you can exploit, as well as determine a few weak match-ups where discretion may be the better part of valor and you might want to consider benching your player in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "start LaDainian Tomlinson or Peyton Manning," but to point out some match-ups involving typically lesser regarded players. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a stud's match-up, particularly if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong match-up, it is not an automatic endorsement - saying they should be started - but it does provide you some valuable information to make decisions with. As an example, some players with the "strong" match-up tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant automatically benching someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy match-up every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the "Weak Play" situation.

QUARTERBACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Mark Brunell, Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

Brunell has guided the Redskins to six straight victories and now he has head coach Joe Gibbs two games from his fourth Super Bowl appearance. The seasoned vet has thrown for just 114 yards per game in his last four contests, but in those games he's averaged 1.8 TDs and 0.8 INTs. Brunell threw for 226 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against the Seahawks in Week 4.

Washington's divisional round foe doesn't boast a defense like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so Brunell is in line for a little more success. In the last four weeks (three games), Seattle has given up 307 yards, 1.33 TDs and 0.33 INTs passing per game to opposing signal-callers.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

So far this year's Big Ben looks nothing like last year's model when it comes to playoff performance. He and his team are on a roll, and in the past four weeks, he's passed for 180 yards, 1 TD and 0.5 INTs per game and run for 0.5 TDs per game. He had just 133 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs passing versus the Colts in Week 12, but it was his first game back from a knee injury and he may have returned a little too soon.

It wasn't the same Roethlisberger then, and this isn't the same Colts defense now. In the past four weeks (three games), a somewhat banged up Indianapolis has allowed opposing signal-callers to throw for 240 yards, 1.33 TDs and 1 INT per game. Big Ben could be up to the challenge this time around.

QUARTERBACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Tom Brady, New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Brady did his usual number in the playoffs when he and the Patriots took down the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-3 with 201 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs passing. He didn't play much in Week 17, so excluding that game he's passed for 215 yards, 2.67 TDs and 0.33 INTs per game in the last four weeks. He passed for 299 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs in Week 6, the team's first game against the Broncos. There may not be another quarterback you would want to lead your team at this time of year.

Brady may be your top choice as pilot in the playoffs, but it doesn't necessarily make him the best fantasy play. In the past four weeks (three games), the Broncos have allowed 188 yards, 0.33 TDs and 0.67 INTs passing per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers

At the rate Grossman was going, some thought he may never see another regular season game. Now he'll start a divisional round playoff game, which is a big step. With his experience limited to eight games, including seven starts, in his three-year career, he's not exactly battle-tested. In his one start this year, at the Green Bay Packers, he went 11 for 23 with 166 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT passing.

Last week, against the New York Giants, we all saw what Carolina can do to a signal-caller making his first career playoff start. In the last four weeks, quarterbacks have thrown for 185 yards, 0.8 TDs and 2.3 INTs per game against the Panthers. Grossman has fewer games under his belt and a lesser running game to aid him than Giants QB Eli Manning did.

RUNNING BACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk, New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

There's some concern about the health of Dillon (calf), who yielded the start in this past week's playoff tilt to Faulk. Dillon made his appearance later, though, and the tandem gave a solid effort in building a lead and securing the game. In the last four weeks (three games), Dillon has notched 64 total yards and 1.33 TDs per game. Faulk tallied 60 total yards per game in that time if you don't count Week 17, in which he played sparingly. Both players missed the team's first contest with the Broncos.

Denver's run defense was dominant for the better part of the year, but lately things just haven't been the same. In the past four weeks (three games), backs have gone for 85 yards rushing, 31 yards receiving and 1 TD per game against the Broncos.

RUNNING BACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Edgerrin James, Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Edge hasn't played much in recent weeks, so he should be fresh coming into the team's first playoff game. In his last two games he has averaged 50 total yards and 0.5 TDs, although he didn't play the entire game in one of those contests. He ran for 124 yards and no scores in Week 12 versus Pittsburgh.

James will need to be well rested, and for Indianapolis' sake, hopefully not too rusty. The Steelers have turned it on at the right time, and in the past four games they've held running backs to 60 rushing yards, 39 receiving yards and 0.5 TDs per game.

Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

Bell came up just a bit short in his effort to give two Denver backs more than 1,000 yards rushing in the same season. Nevertheless, this two-headed monster, featuring the straight-ahead runner in Anderson and the game-breaker in Bell, has been a solid combination. In the past four weeks, Anderson has averaged 84 total yards and 1.5 TDs in two games and Bell has averaged 97 total yards and 1.5 TDs. In Week 6, against New England, Anderson registered 57 yards and a score while Bell ripped off 134 total yards and a TD.

News flash to the Broncos: this ain't the same Patriots team. The current title-holders have shored up the run defense quite a bit. In the past four games, backs have only mustered 60 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards and 0.3 TDs per game against New England.

WIDE RECEIVERS - STRONG PLAYS

Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie, Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

Smith earned himself a trip to the Pro Bowl this year, and it was well deserved. Lelie served as just a mediocre sidekick. Not counting Week 17, where neither played much, Smith has caught 8 balls per game for 114 yards and 0.5 TDs per game over the last month (two games). In that time, Lelie has 3.5 catches and 75 yards per game. In Week 6 versus the Patriots, Smith had 6 receptions for 123 yards and a TD and Lelie gathered three passes for 81 yards.

Both could be big factors in Denver's divisional round effort this week. The Patriots have been strong against the run, but, due to a lack of depth in the defensive backfield, not against the pass. In the last four games, receivers have tallied 13 receptions, 171 yards and 0.8 TDs per game against New England.

NEW - Cedrick Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Most of the time No. 3 receivers on the Steelers are not considered fantasy factors. After losing out on a starting job in training camp, however, Wilson has emerged as (occasionally) a go-to guy. In the past four games, he has 1.8 receptions, 46 yards and 0.3 TDs per game. One of his seven catches went for a score; the other six were for first downs. Wilson was not much of a factor in Week 12 against the Colts but still caught three balls for 44 yards.

While Indianapolis made progress on defense this year, the passing game still proved to be effective against them as the season wore on. Wideouts have benefited. In the past four weeks (three games), players at the position have pulled down 12 passes for 159 yards and 0.67 TDs per game.

WIDE RECEIVERS - WEAK PLAYS

David Givens and Deion Branch, New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

These two unglamorous wideouts are virtually interchangeable, although in past playoff runs QB Tom Brady has shown an affinity for Branch. In the past four games, Givens has averaged 2.5 receptions, 45 yards and 0.5 TDs. Branch, in that time, has averaged 2.5 catches, 38 yards and 0.3 TDs per game. In Week 6 at Denver, Givens caught 7 balls for 56 yards and a score and Branch had 7 receptions for 87 yards.

New England, as they often do, is spreading the ball around quite well, affecting the production of their top two receivers. Throw in the fact the Broncos have held opposing pass-catchers to 14 receptions, 145 yards and 0 TDs per game in the past four weeks, and you have yourself a poor matchup. Denver hopes to have impressive rookie CB Darrent Williams (groin) back for nickel situations this Saturday.

TIGHT ENDS - STRONG PLAYS

Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

Cooley may have had a weak game in the first round of the playoffs, but do not lay the blame solely on him; the entire Redskins offense was shut down by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As for Cooley, he only had two receptions for 12 yards. Since Week 15, he is averaging 3.8 receptions, 33 yards and 1 touchdown per game.

If any game were ripe for Cooley to turn things around it is this one. The Seahawks are allowing five receptions and 67 yards per game to the position the last three games. Even though they have not allowed a touchdown to the position since Week 12, do not let that keep you from starting Cooley this week.

Jerramy Stevens, Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins

After a week off - due to having the No. 1 seed in the NFC - Stevens and the Seahawks are back in action this week. Hopefully, he will pick up where he left off. In the last three games of the season, Stevens was posting 3 receptions, 31 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game.

Chances are pretty good Stevens can stay on the right track this week against the Redskins. Since Week 15, the ‘Skins are allowing tight ends to post a respectable 2.3 receptions, 49 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Those numbers are good enough to warrant a strong play and the starting nod as your starting fantasy tight end.

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

If you are sifting through the numbers to find a stud tight end this week, you will need to look twice when it comes to Miller. He has not scored since Week 8. His receptions and yards have not been all that great the last four games either - two receptions and 39 yards per game.

Here is your second look for Miller. In the last three games, tight ends are putting up some pretty good numbers against the Colts. They are allowing 6 receptions, 48 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game.

Miller should be able to post decent numbers for your squad this week. This game has all the makings of the Steelers playing catch up. Start him, as he is a strong play.

TIGHT ENDS - WEAK PLAYS

Jeb Putzier/ Stephen Alexander, Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

If you are looking for a quality tight end and are looking at either Putzier or Alexander, turn back. While Putzier is posting better numbers than Alexander, he is better known for getting leveled a couple of weeks ago. While it may not matter, rather than changing the formula we will show you their stats anyway. Since Week 15 (three games), Putzier is averaging 1.67 receptions, 25 yards and 0 touchdowns, while Alexander is posting 1.67 receptions, 13 yards with 0 touchdowns per game.

What makes these two tight ends even worse options is the team they have to face this week - the Patriots. Since Week 15, the Patriots are only allowing 1.8 receptions and 12 yards per game to the position. Scoring is out of the question as well. They have not allowed a tight end to reach the end zone since Week 5.

With only eight teams left in the playoffs, the pickings are getting slim, especially at the tight end position. Putzier and Alexander are both weak plays as well as basically your last options for a starting tight end.

NEW - Benjamin Watson, New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

At the time you need a stud from every position - like right now - Watson seems to step up. Last week, the big boy caught five balls for 91 yards, including a 63-yard touchdown catch. In the Patriots last four games (three for Watson) Watson is averaging 3 receptions, 56 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game.

Unfortunately for Watson, the Patriots have to face one of the better tight end defending teams in the league. The Broncos closed out the season (three games) by limiting the position to 1.33 receptions, 11 yards and 0 touchdowns per game. Not since Week 13 has a tight end reached the end zone against this squad.

Watson has been a guy you can rely on at the position the last few games. However, that reliance may come to an end this week against a formidable Broncos defense. While we are nailing Watson with a weak play tag, he is still a quality starter at the position. Simply take a look at the weak talent pool and you will quickly realize he has as more potential as a weak play than the bulk of the guys left at the position.

PLACE KICKERS - STRONG PLAYS

John Kasay, Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

In these desperate fantasy times, you need all the points you can get. That includes the place kicker position. Kasay is your guy here, as he has been getting plenty of scoring chances the last four games. Since Week 15, he is kicking 2.8 FGAs and three XPAs en route to 11 potential points per game.

You would think Kasay would be a weak play against the Bears; however, the numbers do not lie. Since Week 15 (three games), the Bears are allowing a potential eight points per game. Kickers are getting an equal amount of opportunities of field goals and extra points - two per game - against them.

Kasay should be a lock to put up good numbers this week, even in the Windy City in January. Ranking him as the best kicker this week simply shows how confident we are he will score points for your fantasy squad no matter where the game is played. Give him the start.

Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Reed's numbers may not be as good as those posted by Kasay, but he is no slouch either. Since Week 15, he is averaging 8.3 potential points per game. Those points are coming from 1.5 FGAs and 3.8 XPAs per game.

Reed will get the chance to expand those numbers in a potential shootout against the Colts this week. In the final three games of the season, the Colts were allowing 2.33 FGAs, 2.33 XPAs and a potential 9.33 points per game to the position.

We like Reed for a couple of reasons this week. First, the Steelers will likely have to score a lot of points in this one. The other reason is the game is indoors. What more could you want from your starting fantasy kicker this week?

PLACE KICKERS - WEAK PLAYS

Mike Vanderjagt, Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Hello Mike Vanderjagt; welcome to the weak play list once again. You find yourself here once again, because you are averaging a weak 6.67 points per game the last three games. You are only kicking 1.67 FGAs and 1.67 XPAs per game - that simply is not good enough in the fantasy world.

While this game has the makings of a shootout, that does not mean the Vanderjagt is going to score a lot of points. The Colts are not kicking many field goals this season, and the Steelers are not allowing kickers to score much in the last four games. Since Week 15, kickers are only scoring a potential 3.5 points from 0.8 FGAs and 1.3 XPAs per game.

Even though Vanderjagt is kicking indoors and the Colts may put a lot of points on the board, we are still ranking him as a weak play. The fact is touchdowns mean only one point for your fantasy kicker. That is the likely scenario this week against the Steelers, which is why he is a middle of the road kicker.

Adam Vinatieri, New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Mom always says if you cannot say something nice then do not say anything at all. Well, Vinatieri is perfect on all kicks the last four games. Now that we said something nice, we can rip him. Since Week 15, Vinatieri is only scoring 5.5 points from 0.8 FGAs and 3.3 XPAs per game. Yuk!

The only thing more "yuk!" than Vinatieri's numbers is his potential against the Broncos this week. In the final three games of the season, the Broncos allowed an astonishing three points per game. While kickers are perfect in these games, they are kicking 0.67 FGAs and one XPA per game against them.

Unless you are loaded at all other positions, avoid Vinatieri if you can this week. His potential is severely limited against the Broncos. He is the lowest ranked kicker and a weak play.

NEW - Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers

Gould had the week off last week due to the Bears earning the No. 2 seed in the NFC. That means the rookie kicker will be well rested this week - as if he needs it. Hopefully, that means Gould’s scoring will start to increase rather than decrease like it did in each of the last three games of the season. Overall in those three games, Gould is scoring a potential 7.67 points from 1.67 FGAs and 2 XPAs per game.

The likelihood of Gould busting out a lot of points in this game is fairly limited for a couple of reasons. First, he will be kicking against a Panthers unit that is only allowing a maximum of four kicking points per game in their last four games. That includes a shutout against the New York Giants last week. Since Week 15, kickers are only getting the opportunity to boot one FGA and one XPA per game.

Now for the second reason Gould is a weak play. This game has all the makings of a low-scoring defensive battle. We are talking smash mouth football here. That said Gould is not your worst option this week, but he certainly is not your best option either.

DEFENSIVE TEAMS - STRONG PLAYS

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Toward the end of the season, the Colts were not boasting a dominant defense like they were in the early part of the season. In the last three games, the Colts allowed 22 offensive points per game. Meanwhile, they were creating two takeaways and two sacks per game.

The Colts defense will be tested this week against a Steelers offense that is moving the football. Since Week 15, the Steelers are scoring 29 offensive points while allowing one turnover and two sacks per game.

This game could end up as a high-scoring affair if the Colts have their way. However, the Steelers will likely grind it out on the ground and attempt to manage the clock. In either case, this is good match-up for the Colts. They are a strong play as our best rated defense this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers defense is one of the reasons they made the playoffs this season. Since Week 15, they are averaging 2 takeaways, 3.8 sacks, 0.3 touchdowns and 10 offensive points allowed per game. The Steelers continued to be a force on the field in their wildcard game against the Cincinnati Bengals by forcing 2 turnovers, 4 sacks and only 17 offensive points allowed.

Speaking of tough tests, try stopping the Colts' offensive machine. This is a team that closed out the season (three games) scoring 16 offensive points, allowed 1.67 sacks and 2.67 turnovers per game. Not impressed? Just remember that was with their second-team offense for the bulk of those games.

The Steelers defense is playing nearly flawless football in recent weeks. That is why they are a strong play against the Colts. What will also help the defense do well is if the offense can manage the clock and keep the Colts offense off the field. Start the Steelers defense this week.

DEFENSIVE TEAMS - WEAK PLAYS

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

If you watched the Panthers' opening round game against the Giants you know the Panthers defense has been playing exceptional football lately. Including that game, the Panthers have only allowed 11 offensive points per game in their last four games. Meanwhile they have piled up 4.3 takeaways, 3.8 sacks and 0.3 touchdowns per game since Week 15.

When you think of the Bears success this season, the last thing that comes to mind is probably the offense - with the exception of RB Thomas Jones. The Bears closed out their last three games of the season by scoring only 14 offensive points per game. While they do not rely on scoring a lot of points, they do rely on not making mistakes. Since Week 15, the Bears are only allowing 0.67 sacks and turning the ball over 1.67 times per game.

The opportunities will likely come few and far between for the Panthers this week. The Bears offense simply does not make mistakes, unlike the Giants in the opening round. This match-up is unfavorable for the Panthers, leaving us with no other option than to tag them as a weak play and your last option for a fantasy defense.

Author Bio

Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

Author Bio

James Eberspacher

James Eberspacher has been Commissioner of a "high performance" fantasy football league since 1994. He has created an entertaining and challenging league by designing a unique scoring system and a creative sense of writing and style. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.