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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Super Bowl XL - Updated

January 26, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix and James Eberspacher
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Another year of football is here. Ho Hum. Wait, we're just kidding! We're very excited about the season and look forward to each week. We're pleased to again bring you the "Strong Plays/Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong match-ups of interest you can exploit, as well as determine a few weak match-ups where discretion may be the better part of valor and you might want to consider benching your player in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "start LaDainian Tomlinson or Peyton Manning," but to point out some match-ups involving typically lesser regarded players. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a stud's match-up, particularly if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong match-up, it is not an automatic endorsement - saying they should be started - but it does provide you some valuable information to make decisions with. As an example, some players with the "strong" match-up tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant automatically benching someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy match-up every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the "Weak Play" situation.

QUARTERBACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Hasselbeck finally gets to follow in the footsteps of his mentor, Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre, and play in the big game. He's played well enough to get there, throwing for 170 yards, one TD and zero INTs per game in the past four weeks (three games). In the playoffs (two games) he's taken control, passing for 217 yards, 1.5 TDs and zero INTs and dashing for another 0.5 scores per game. He has a plethora of receiving options, including a healthy WR Darrell Jackson, and an NFL MVP to keep the defense honest.

Pittsburgh's defense has been hot, but there's a chink in the armor there somewhere. In the last four games the Steelers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for 247 yards, 1.5 TDs and one INT per game. In the postseason (three games) signal-callers have thrown for 258 yards, one TD and 1.33 INTs per game against Pittsburgh.

QUARTERBACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

Barring some unforeseen incident, Big Ben will be the second youngest quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl. He deserves to be. In the past four contests, Roethlisberger has passed for 204 yards, 1.8 TDs and 0.8 INTs per game and rushed for 0.5 TDs per game. During the postseason (three games), he's been hotter, throwing for 227 yards, 2.67 TDs and 0.33 INTs per game and run for another 0.33 TDs per game.

Attribute much of Seattle's success to its improvements on defense. That includes defending against men under center, who've passed for 232 yards, one TD and 1.33 INTs per game in the past four weeks (three games) against this team. In the playoffs (two games), quarterbacks have mustered just 219 yards, one TD and 1.5 INTs passing per game against the Seahawks.

RUNNING BACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Alexander removed the playoff monkey from his back, and now he'll concentrate on the Super Bowl. After his concussion in the divisional round, he let on that he might not even be 100 percent for Sunday's NFC Championship. He went out and ripped off 132 rushing yards and two TDs against the Carolina Panthers. His offensive line might be the best in the business, and you know what he can do.

He should keep on doing it in the Super Bowl, too. Pittsburgh has given up only 68 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving and one score per game to backs in the past four games. In the playoffs (three games), backs have gained 61 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving and one TD per game against this team. Pittsburgh has been up most of the time during these stretches however, forcing their opponents to abandon the run. Seattle is committed to it.

NEW - Mack Strong, Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Strong, a fullback, doesn't usually get the rock (witness his utilizations, which were a shade under three per game - 1.5 percent - during the regular season). Coach Mike Holmgren has trusted him with five utilizations per game (7 percent) during the playoffs (two games), including two per game in the red zone (15 percent) and one per game inside the 5. Strong has come through with 25 total yards per game in that time. Since his touches often involve the element of surprise, he has a chance to break one for a big gain if they go to him.

The Super Bowl may present him with another opportunity. Pittsburgh has given up only 68 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving and one score per game to backs in the past four games. In the playoffs (three games), backs have gained 61 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving and one TD per game against this team. The Steelers have been fortunate to play with the lead, though. Holmgren is committed to the run - and to some occasional trickery.

RUNNING BACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

The Bus rolls into hometown Detroit for Super Bowl XL, and he's riding high. In the past four contests he's racked up 45 rushing yards and 1.5 TDs per game. During the playoffs (three games), he's tallied 46 yards and one TD rushing per game, a slight drop-off. Fast Willie has been a decent complement, averaging 67 rushing yards, 24 receiving yards and 0.3 TDs per game in the last four games. Yardage-wise he's slipped a bit in the playoffs: 44 rushing yards, 27 receiving yards and 0.33 TDs per game. Recently Pittsburgh has used the pass to set up the run, which means the backs are there just to grind it out in the second half.

Seattle may not plan to allow the Steelers' dangerous duo to get down at any time. They've been astute against the run. In the past four weeks (three games), this "D" has given up just 48 yards rushing, 44 yards receiving and 0.33 TDs per game to opposing backs. In the postseason (two tilts), players at the position have come up with only 34 rushing yards and 39 receiving yards per game without a score.

TIGHT ENDS - WEAK PLAYS

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

Correct us if we are wrong - we are not - but last week we told you to be prepared for a letdown from Miller. After only catching two balls for 31 yards and failing to score a touchdown, you cannot call it anything other than a letdown. Over the last four games, Miller has not been much better with averages of 2.5 receptions, 42 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game.

There does not seem to be a silver-lined cloud in store for Miller in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks defense has been playing extremely well recently, especially against tight ends. Over the last three games, tight ends have only totaled six receptions and 23 yards against the Seahawks. That is a pathetic two receptions and 7.67 yards per game! You want touchdowns? Forget it. A tight end has not scored against this squad since Week 12.

With only two teams remaining, your choices of tight ends are obviously very minimal. With Miller's weak play tag, he is a less attractive starter than Seattle Seahawks TE Jerramy Stevens.

PLACE KICKERS- WEAK PLAYS

Josh Brown, Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

One thing Brown has going for him is he gets plenty of opportunities behind the Seahawks offense. Over the last three games, Brown is kicking two FGAs and 2.67 XPAs per game. That is good for 8.67 maximum kicking points per game.

The Super Bowl may prove to be a rough going for Brown, however, as he faces a stingy Steelers' defense. Since Week 17, opposing kickers are only averaging five potential points per game against them. That is because they are only getting the opportunity to boot one FGA and two XPAs per game.

You have two choices this week, either you pick Brown or Pittsburgh Steelers PK Jeff Reed. Make Brown your second choice this week. Against the Steelers tough defense, he is a weak play and could struggle to score points.

Author Bio

Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

Author Bio

James Eberspacher

James Eberspacher has been Commissioner of a "high performance" fantasy football league since 1994. He has created an entertaining and challenging league by designing a unique scoring system and a creative sense of writing and style. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.