Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

San Francisco 49ers Week 16 Analysis

December 20, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS

The San Francisco 49ers (6-8) kept their playoff hopes alive last week with a 24-14 win over the Seattle Seahawks (8-6) in Seattle. They need to win both of their final games, and hope the Seahawks lose out, in order have a shot at the division title. They should have a much easier task this week as they face the Arizona Cardinals (4-10). The Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing 37-20 home loss to the Denver Broncos (8-6). It will be the first time the 49ers face Cardinals quarterback Matt Leinart in what should be an exciting matchup for years to come. The Cardinals are just playing for draft position but they might like nothing better than to end their division rivals' playoff hopes. It figures to be an exciting game, with both offenses featuring fantasy starters. Without further ado, on to the fantasy starters...

PASSING MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS

Last week quarterback Alex D. Smith showed why the 49ers took him first overall in the 2005 draft, as he threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns passes and ran in another score. He finished the game 14 of 25 with 162 passing yards and two touchdowns. He also ran the ball six times for 33 yards and one touchdown. Over the past four weeks, Smith is averaging 171 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns and 1.8 interceptions per game. Smith's Week 1 performance was one of his best of the season as he completed 23 of 40 passes for 288 yards and one touchdown. Against the Cardinals this week, Smith ranks as a No. 1 or injury replacement at the position. He is also a strong play.

Over the past four weeks, the Cardinals are allowing 272 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns and one interception per game to the position.

RUSHING MATCHUP: RUNNING BACKS

Running back Frank Gore will be looking to celebrate the first Pro Bowl selection of his career this week. He was once again the offensive catalyst for the 49ers last week, rushing 29 times for 144 yards. He also caught four passes for 34 yards and one touchdown. Over the past four weeks, Gore is averaging 112 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns. He is also averaging 33 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game. Gore is being given 26 utilizations (49 percent) per game since Week 12, with 3.3 (38 percent) coming in the red zone and 0.5 inside the 5. In the Week 1 game against the Cardinals, Gore ran the ball 16 times for 87 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught six passes for 83 yards. He comes ranked as a No. 1 running back this week, although he is a weak play.

Running back Maurice Hicks is getting only 3.3 utilizations (6.1 percent) per game over past four weeks. Those numbers aren't good enough to make your fantasy lineup this week. He is a weak play and should be benched.

Like Hicks, running back Michael Robinson is not getting enough utilizations per game (one, 1.9 percent) since Week 12 to warrant being used in your fantasy lineup. He is a weak play and should be benched this week.

The Cardinals are allowing 107 rushing yards, 36 receiving yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game to this position over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

The 49ers lack a dominant wide receiver, something they could take with one of their top picks in the 2007 draft. Wide receiver Antonio Bryant is the top-ranked wide receiver on their team, despite catching only two passes for 16 yards last week. Over the past four weeks, Bryant is averaging 47 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. He is being targeted 6.8 times (13 percent) per game since Week 12, with 0.3 (2.9 percent) in the red zone. Bryant may hope his game this week is similar to the one he had against the Cardinals in Week 1, when he caught four passes for 114 yards. This week, he comes ranked as a No. 3 wide receiver and is also a strong play.

Wide receiver Arnaz Battle has the same amount of receiving yards as Bryant over the past four weeks (47 yards per game), but he has not caught any touchdown passes. He is getting 5.8 targets (11 percent) per game in that time as well. In Week 1, Battle caught only two passes for 17 yards. This week he comes ranked as a No. 3 or injury replacement at the position and is a strong play.

While wide receiver Bryan Gilmore has the most targets in the red zone (0.8 per game, 8.8 percent, since Week 12) of all the wide receivers, he is only getting 1.5 targets (2.8 percent) per game over the past four weeks. With that lack of playing time, Gilmore is a weak play and should be benched this week.

The Cardinals are allowing 193 receiving yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game to this position over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

Tight end Vernon Davis is beginning to develop a good rapport with Smith, especially over the past four weeks. In that time he is averaging 30 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He is getting an average of 4.8 targets (8.9 percent) per game, with 0.8 (8.8 percent) coming in the red zone. Davis was solid in the team's first game against the Cardinals. He finished that game catching five passes for 37 yards and one touchdown. Davis comes ranked as a No. 1 tight end or injury replacement this week.

Tight end Eric Johnson (knee) has been inactive the past three weeks with a knee injury, although he could be back this week. In the one game he has played in the past four, Johnson caught three passes for 17 yards and one touchdown. He caught one pass for two yards in Week 1 versus Arizona. Keep an eye on KFFL this week to see if he plays as he should probably be benched, but could be an injury replacement at the position.

The Cardinals are allowing 44 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game to the position over the past four weeks.

KICKING MATCHUP

Place kicker Joe Nedney is averaging 1.8 extra point attempts (7-for-7) and 1.3 field goal attempts (5-for-5) per game over the past four weeks. He has been perfect on all his attempts as you can see and has a decent matchup this week. He should be used as a No. 1 place kicker this week.

The Cardinals are allowing 3.3 extra point attempts and 1.5 field goal attempts to the position over the past four weeks.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

The 49ers defense got back cornerback Shawntae Spencer (ankle) last week, which provided a spark against the Seahawks. With his return, the 49ers were able to blitz more often and put more pressure on Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Over the past four weeks, the 49ers defense is allowing 25 offensive points, 232 passing yards and 140 rushing yards per game. They are also averaging 1.8 sacks and 0.8 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. Against the Cardinals this week, they could be used as a low-end No. 1 defense, so if you have better options, you might want to explore them.

The Cardinals are averaging 22 offensive points, 259 passing yards and 92 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. They are also allowing 1.3 sacks, 1.3 interceptions and 0.8 fumbles lost over the past four weeks.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.